What am I bid to be a phone company?

This morning’s Observer column about eBay’s acquisition of Skype. (Podcast here.)

Why did eBay splash out? Here’s an heretical thought: it is a symptom of a midlife crisis. Remember that eBay was one of the poster children of the original internet boom. Unlike most of its contemporaries, it was profitable almost from day one, has seen 10 years of explosive growth and now boasts 157 million users in 34 countries, with annual profits touching $1bn a year.

Now, this is great, but it can’t go on for ever. So if you were eBay’s management, sitting on a mountain of cash and nursing a buoyant share price, you’d be looking beyond the point where the auction business begins to plateau. You’d be looking for something with even bigger growth potential than online trading. Which would lead you to VoIP, the Next Big Thing…

The new arithmetic

Let’s see, now. Take the cost of rebuilding New Orleans and the three devastated states — say $200 billion. Add the cost of running that war over in Iraq — say $100 billion and rising. Call it $300 billion. Time to call a halt to tax cuts.

Not a bit of it.

Here’s Dubya’s latest word on the question:

On Friday, Bush ruled out raising taxes to pay the massive costs of Gulf Coast reconstruction, saying other government spending — which neither he nor his aides identified — must be cut to pay for a recovery effort expected to swell the budget deficit by $200 billion or more.

“You bet it’s going to cost money. But I’m confident we can handle it,” he said at a White House news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Congress already has approved $62 billion for the disaster, but that is expected to run out next month and require another budget-busting installment. The federal deficit was projected at $333 billion for the current year before the storm slammed into the Gulf Coast more than two weeks ago. Some fiscal conservatives are expressing alarm at the prospect of massive additional federal outlays without talk of what other spending to cut.

The Seattle Times comments that

The proposed record reconstruction spending in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, estimated as high as $200 billion, is all but certain to add to a mushrooming national debt that already has the country dependent on foreign investors.

The sum is about equal to what has been spent on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s almost half the size of this year’s domestic discretionary spending, essentially everything the government does besides national defense, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

President Bush vowed yesterday to rebuild the tattered Gulf Coast, “whatever it costs.” He ruled out tax increases, which means the new spending will add to the burden on taxpayers from the federal budget deficit, now $331 billion, and the national debt, now $4.6 trillion.

“It means we’re going to have to make sure we cut unnecessary spending,” Bush said. “It’s going to mean that we maintain economic growth and we should not raise taxes.”

That Bush speech in New Orleans

Lovely column by Maureen Dowd…

In a ruined city – still largely without power, stinking with piles of garbage and still 40 percent submerged; where people are foraging in the miasma and muck for food, corpses and the sentimental detritus of their lives; and where unbearably sad stories continue to spill out about hordes of evacuees who lost their homes and patients who died in hospitals without either electricity or rescuers – isn’t it rather tasteless, not to mention a waste of energy, to haul in White House generators just to give the president a burnished skin tone and a prettified background?

The slick White House TV production team was trying to salvage W.’s “High Noon” snap with some snazzy Hollywood-style lighting – the same Reaganesque stagecraft they had provided when W. made a prime-time television address from Ellis Island on the first anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. On that occasion, Scott Sforza, a former ABC producer, and Bob DeServi, a former NBC cameraman and a lighting expert, rented three barges of giant Musco lights, the kind used for “Monday Night Football” and Rolling Stones concerts, floated them across New York Harbor and illuminated the Statue of Liberty as a backdrop for Mr. Bush.

Before the presidential address, Mr. DeServi was surveying his handiwork in Jackson Square, crowing to reporters about his cathedral: “Oh, it’s heated up. It’s going to print loud.”

A perfect day

This is my favourite kind of day. The thing about September is that such days seem suddenly very precious because you know that they’re about to become rare!

Like nephew, like uncle

Dubya’s nephew has been arrested after going on a drunken spree. Just like his uncle used to do, before he got religion and gave up the booze. Here’s the AP report:

AUSTIN, Texas — The youngest son of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was arrested early Friday and charged with public intoxication and resisting arrest, law enforcement officials said.John Ellis Bush, 21, was arrested by agents of the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission at 2:30 a.m. on a corner of Austin’s Sixth Street bar district, said commission spokesman Roger Wade.The nephew of President Bush was released on $2,500 bond for the resisting arrest charge, and on a personal recognizance bond for the public intoxication charge, officials said.

Don’t suppose this will stop the family running him for Governor of Texas, though.

An open source timeline for Katrina

The first tool for analysing any catastrophe is a detailed timeline. Given the complexity of the Katrina disaster (and the curious myopia of local and federal government), it seemed to me that it was a classic case for an open-source effort. Now Josh Marshall is creating something very like that on his Blog. Brilliant!

En passant, there’s a beautiful piece of Mac software for creating timelines.

What’s really going on in cyberspace?

One of the most interesting companies around is Cachelogic. They’ve developed some technology for doing deep analysis of the data traffic passing through ISPs’ servers. Last year, they revealed the extent to which P2P traffic has come to dominate the Net.

Now comes a new presentation by company co-founder Andrew Parker on “Peer-to-Peer in 2005”. It makes for riveting reading. Some highlights:

  • The 2004 study showed that BitTorrent was the biggest P2P service, and revealed a shift away from music sharing towards video. By the end of 2004, BitTorrent was accounting for as much as a third of all Internet traffic. But then came a legal crackdown on major BitTorrent sites, and the Supreme Court’s decision in the Grokster case.
  • The Supremes’ verdict, however, did not result in a rapid decline in P2P usage. In fact, at the end of 2004, P2P accounted for 60% of all Internet traffic. Parker says: “P2P outstrips every other communication and distribution protocol and is still growing”.
  • In many regions of the world, the traffic has shifted away from BitTorrent towards an alternative — eDonkey. And although BitTorrent traffic levels have been dramatically affected by the closure of the key tracker sites (which made it easy to find torrents), a fully-decentralised version of BT called eXeem is spreading.
  • 61% of P2P-shared files are video. Only 12% are audio.
  • Of the audio files, 65% are MP3 format, 23% are Windows media files — and a surprising 12% are in Ogg format.
  • Shared video is overwhelmingly (76%) in Windows media format (only 15% are MPEGs)
  • All of this is putting terrific pressure on ISPs. P2P is THE dominant protocol now, so ISPs cannot afford to block or restrict it. Furthermore, “P2P is driving consumer broadband uptake — and broadband is driving P2P uptake”.
  • P2P will become the distribution medium for most information goods. This will have significant downsides for ISPs — essentially relegating them to the role of mere conduits. The consumer relates directly to the service providing the content, not to the conduit.
  • Lots more. If you’re intrigued, it’s well worth viewing the whole presentation. Ed Felten has some interesting comments on all this.

    1,001 horsepower, $1.24 million, no brains

    If you want to know why VW is in trouble, look no further!

    Each Bugatti Veyron 16.4 will cost an estimated $1.24 million, according to media reports. For that, buyers will get an all-wheel-drive two-seat sports car with a lightweight carbon-fiber body and 16-cylinder engine capable of producing 1,001 horsepower.

    Oh, and according to Automotive News, this hideous vehicle still suffered from two major problems: The enormous engine tended to overheat and the car, capable of a top speed of well in excess of 200 miles per hour, was unstable at high speeds. Wouldn’t it be nice if Jeremy Clarkson bought one and then totalled it — and himself — thereby ridding the world of two excrescences in one fell swoop.