Not the New Deal

Lest we get carried away by that Bush speech about reconstructing New Orleans, here’s an extract from Paul Krugman’s column.

It’s a given that the Bush administration, which tried to turn Iraq into a laboratory for conservative economic policies, will try the same thing on the Gulf Coast. The Heritage Foundation, which has surely been helping Karl Rove develop the administration’s recovery plan, has already published a manifesto on post-Katrina policy. It calls for waivers on environmental rules, the elimination of capital gains taxes and the private ownership of public school buildings in the disaster areas. And if any of the people killed by Katrina, most of them poor, had a net worth of more than $1.5 million, Heritage wants to exempt their heirs from the estate tax.

Still, even conservatives admit that deregulation, tax cuts and privatization won’t be enough. Recovery will require a lot of federal spending. And aside from the effect on the deficit – we’re about to see the spectacle of tax cuts in the face of both a war and a huge reconstruction effort – this raises another question: how can discretionary government spending take place on that scale without creating equally large-scale corruption?

Update: Dead Ringers on BBC Radio 4 tonight had a lovely spoof Bush speech. It began: “My fellow amphibians…”.

News

Lots of rumours on the Net today that Time-Warner is about to do a deal with Microsoft to merge AOL and MSN. And Google raised $4.18 billion in its second public offering. What will they do with it? My guess: something in the financial services area. Oh and Toshiba have released an updated version of the Libretto, the nicest sub-notebook computer ever made.

Curiouser and curiouser

Walking back through Chinatown from (a working) lunch in Soho, Quentin and I came on this curious street scene.

On the left was a film crew, complete with camera and huge flood light. The focus of attention was a small family group — Mum, Dad, two daughters — shown below having their make-up adjusted.

Behind them, a woman was fussing with a smoke machine.

What, we wondered, was all this about. A documentary about the new affluent Chinese tourist? A feature film? A spoof? And why the smoke machine? We hadn’t time to find out, alas — our train beckoned. Another of life’s unsolved riddles. Sigh.

The great firewall of China

The great — and as yet unanswered — question about the Internet is whether it is really a revolutionary technology, in the sense of a force that overturns the established order. In the heady days of the late 1990s some of us thought it might be just such a thing. But I vividly remember a conversation I had about this at the time with an eminent academic colleague, a seasoned analyst of revolutions, and a genuinely wise man. We were both attending a seminar in the Whiteley Centre on San Juan Island in the Puget Sound — one of the most beautiful places I’ve ever been. We sat on the terrace overlooking the sea, smoking and talking. I outlined my reasons for thinking that the Net would sweep all before it. He listened, shook his head thoughtfully, puffed on his cigar, and said “We’ll see. We’ll see”.

His scepticism was justified. After an initial period of shock, the established order is getting to grips with the Net. And the Chinese are ahead of the game — shamefully aided and abetted by companies like Yahoo and Google and News Corporation, as this excellent piece by Isabel Hilton in Open Democracy shows. Sample:

The sentencing of the Chinese journalist Shi Tao to ten years in prison for “leaking state secrets” has two disturbing aspects. First, that Chinese citizens continue to be harassed and imprisoned for dealing in information that does not threaten state security and which, in any less authoritarian country, would be considered part of the normal currency of information exchange; second, that the Yahoo company assisted the Chinese government to track Shi Tao down, an identification that led to his arrest in November 2004 and conviction in April 2005.

Any government has the right to look after national security. But in China, national security is used as a catchall category that allows the authorities to imprison people whom they perceive as a threat less to the national interest but to the interests of the Chinese Communist Party. For the party, these are the same thing. By any reasonable measure, they are not.

More: Thanks to Kevin Cryan for pointing me to George Monbiot’s Guardian column, which makes the point even more forcefully.

ESR’s reply to Microsoft

Incredible, but true. A Microsoft recruiter offered Eric S. Raymond a job. The approach read, in part:

Microsoft is seeking world class engineers to help create products that help people and businesses throughout the world realize their full potential.

Your name and contact info was brought to my attention as someone who could potentially be a contributor at Microsoft. I would love an opportunity to speak with you in detail about your interest in a career at Microsoft, along with your experience, background and qualifications.

I would be happy to answer any questions that you may have and can also provide you with any information I have available in regard to the positions and work life at Microsoft.

At first Eric assumed it must be a joke, but apparently the approach was serious. His reply is worth quoting in full!

To: v -mikewa@microsoft.com

From: esr@thyrsus.com

I’d thank you for your offer of employment at Microsoft, except that it indicates that either you or your research team (or both) couldn’t get a clue if it were pounded into you with baseball bats. What were you going to do with the rest of your afternoon, offer jobs to Richard Stallman and Linus Torvalds? Or were you going to stick to something easier, like talking Pope Benedict into presiding at a Satanist orgy?

If you had bothered to do five seconds of background checking, you might have discovered that I am the guy who responded to Craig Mundie’s “Who are you?” with “I’m your worst nightmare”, and that I’ve in fact been something pretty close to your company’s worst nightmare since about 1997. You’ve maybe heard about this “open source” thing?

You get one guess who wrote most of the theory and propaganda for it and talked IBM and Wall Street and the Fortune 500 into buying in.

But don’t think I’m trying to destroy your company. Oh, no; I’d be just as determined to do in any other proprietary-software monopoly, and the community I helped found is well on its way to accomplishing that goal.

On the day *I* go to work for Microsoft, faint oinking sounds will be heard from far overhead, the moon will not merely turn blue but develop polkadots, and hell will freeze over so solid the brimstone will go superconductive.

But I must thank you for dropping a good joke on my afternoon. On that hopefully not too far distant day that I piss on Microsoft’s grave, I sincerely hope none of it will splash on you.

Cordially yours,
Eric S. Raymond

Don’t you just love that guff about “helping people and businesses throughout the world realize their full potential”! Interestingly, there are lots of critical comments on ESR’s Blog, accusing him of being childish and giving the Open Source movement a bad name. Which makes one wonder if any of the critics have even seen Steve Ballmer in action.

Katrina and global warming

One of the most irritating aspects of the Katrina disaster is the moralistic outrage that greets any attempt to point out that there may be a connection with global warming — a phenomenon about which the Bushites are in denial. How nice to see, then, a forthright New Yorker piece on the subject by Elizabeth Kolbert. Sample:

Though hurricanes are, in their details, extremely complicated, basically they all draw their energy from the same source: the warm surface waters of the ocean. This is why they form only in the tropics, and during the season when sea surface temperatures are highest. It follows that if sea surface temperatures increase — as they have been doing — then the amount of energy available to hurricanes will grow. In general, climate scientists predict that climbing CO2 levels will lead to an increase in the intensity of hurricanes, though not in hurricane frequency. (This increase will be superimposed on any natural cycles of hurricane activity.) Meanwhile, as sea levels rise—water expands as it warms — storm surges, like the one that breached the levees in New Orleans, will inevitably become more dangerous. In a paper published in Nature just a few weeks before Katrina struck, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reported that wind-speed measurements made by planes flying through tropical storms showed that the “potential destructiveness” of such storms had “increased markedly” since the nineteen-seventies, right in line with rising sea surface temperatures.