If Romney wins…

Good column by Will Hutton about the kind of capitalism that Romney represents.

Bain Capital is part of the problem, not the solution. The private equity recipe has ripped the heart out of innovative US while leaving its banks encumbered by massive non-performing debts. The business model is now broken and the US has to start to ask questions about whether the Bain type of allegedly individualist capitalism really delivers growth and jobs. As the answer is: no, what does?

Smartphones, clouds and control

This morning’s Observer column about the latest Ofcom survey of the communications market.

The Ofcom document runs to 411 pages, so it is custom-built for empirical masochists. Given that life is short, and you may have other things to do on a Sunday morning, I will just focus on some findings in the report that leapt out at me, and ponder their implications. The survey shows that home internet access in the UK rose by 3% between 2011 and 2012 and now stands at 80%. So eight out of 10 people have access to the network. And the speed of that access is increasing: by the first quarter of 2012, for example, 76% of UK homes had a broadband connection of some description. Equally interesting is the discovery that the largest rise in internet access over the last year – 9% – was among 65 to 74-year-olds. So the idea of “silver surfers” as an endangered minority needs recalibrating.

Next, we find that two-fifths of UK adults are now smartphone users. Take-up has risen from 27% in 2011 to 39%. This is interesting because the mobile networks and the telecoms industry have in the past consistently underestimated the popularity of internet-enabled mobile phones. It’s also one of the reasons why Nokia finds itself in so much trouble.

It’s hard to exaggerate the significance of the smartphone tsunami, especially when we see Ofcom’s discovery that more than four in 10 smartphone users say their phone is more important for accessing the internet than any other device…

Next in line for obsolescence: sports photographers

From Wired.com.

At this year’s Olympic games, Reuters, in addition to its army of traditional photographers, will have 11 robots set up in places no shooter would otherwise be able to get. Photographers like Reblias are used to fixed remote-operated camera systems grabbing otherwise difficult shots. However, what Reuters will do is a whole new ball game: Their robotic camera system, armed with Canon’s newest body, the 1-DX, will have three-axis control and have a photographer at a computer operating its every movement with a joystick.

Developed by Fabrizio Bensch and Pawel Kopczynski, the 11 robo-cams at various venues will use a wide range of lenses: a 24-105mm, a 70-200mm and telephotos up to 400mm. In addition to three axes of movement, the cameras’ pilots control shutter speed, sensitivity and image size. Photos instantly stream into Reuters’ remote editing system, Paneikon, and are moved to clients just minutes after being captured.

Looking for a way to get dramatic shots at new angles, the Berlin-based photographers dreamed up the idea in 2009 and tested a two-axis prototype last year in the World Athletic Championships in Daegu, South Korea. The London Olympics will be the first showing of the three-axis control, and the first time using more than just one robotic camera.

“We are essentially able to put cameras and photographers where they’ve never been before, capturing images in ways they’ve never been captured,” Bensch said. “For example, I’ve installed a robotic camera unit on a truss, 30 meters high — in a position where no photographer has been in a previous Olympics.”

Oh well: sports photography was a nice job while it lasted.

The “Rogue Cop” (aka Bad Apple) narrative

This is the line that’s always trotted out whenever a bent or violent or racist police officer is outed. It’s also the line invariably parroted by the tabloid press. We shouldn’t buy into it, as Jonathan Moses argues in this piece:

The charity Inquest notes that there have been just over 1400 deaths in police custody or following police contact since 1990 and not a single conviction of manslaughter. Clearly not all of these will be due to incidences of violence and neglect – but Tomlinson’s case is only one amongst many examples of police brutality leading to death. The public order unit Harwood was a part of, the TSG (Territorial Support Group), claims it recruits from the ranks “on merit, and much emphasis is placed upon their personal ability, motivation and good communication skills.” Yet Harwood already had ten complaints to his name by the time he joined the unit, and had been quietly dropped from the Met once before on medical grounds before disciplinary proceedings could begin against him.

Between 2005-2009, 5000 complaints were made against the TSG, with only 9 upheld, leading the Metropolitan Police Authority (the Met’s watchdog) to warn that TSG officers were seen as “practically immune” to criticism. Anecdotally, innumerable incidents of TSG violence are seared into my memory, nearly all of them involving unthreatening, unarmed young people posing no danger to the officers in question. I’ve come away with the feeling that a significant proportion of TSG officers, are, as London Assembly member Jenny Jones said of Harwood yesterday “thug[s] in uniform”, looking for the legitimacy of a police badge and the impunity of the legal system.

It is worth thinking about the culture which feeds this legitimacy, often facilitated by the mainstream media. As witnessed in the example of the Standard, the rule of thumb is that whilst protesters will inevitably be described as “violent” the moment that, say, a window is broken, police attacking protesters with batons, tasers, CS spray and shield strikes are never described as such. If it’s mentioned at all, it will always be under the pseudonym “robust”. The double standards are also apparent in the justice system. For protesters, what would be minor infractions in the context of everyday life become serious criminal offences in the context of public order. For the police, it is the other way around: Harwood used the abstract context of disorder on the day to justify his specific actions, which included pushing over a BBC cameraman, then another person who was helping someone on the floor, before going on to attack Tomlinson.

In some ways, the Territorial Support Group resembles News International’s journalists in the years before the Leveson Inquiry. They believed themselves immune from prosecution and so felt able to do whatever they wanted. Milly Dowler’s family were victims of that mindset. Ian Tomlinson was a victim of its police equivalent.

Colorado and the dim prospects for gun control

From Jack Shafer.

The human reflex to find cause, meaning and lessons in the detritus of a massacre – and to impose a solution on the chaos based on those findings – should be trusted only to the extent that it allows us to muddle through the confusion churned up by such a crazed act. As we recover from the initial shock, we revert to our fundamental and irresolvable arguments about freedom and individuality, which aren’t very good at explaining why people shoot or dynamite innocents – or at stopping them from doing so.

Pollsters tell us that killings like the Colorado massacre don’t seem to move the public opinion needle very much. The 1999 Columbine shootings turned support for stronger gun-control laws upward, as this Huffington Post analysis of poll data from ABC/Washington Post, Gallup, and Pew shows, but the public’s attitude soon reverted to the previous baseline and actually continued to fall for the next 11 years.

Sadly, he’s right.

Hard cases and bad law

Any criminal justice system worthy of the name will throw up lots of anomalies, but in the case of the death of Ian Tomlinson, the newspaper seller who died during the G20 protests in London in 2009 shortly after being struck and knocked to the ground by a police officer, Simon Harwood, the British system has apparently excelled itself.

First of all, there’s the fact that the assault on him would never have come to light if things had been left to the Metropolitan Police, which in recent years has sometimes functioned as a part-time subsidiary of News International. It was only reporting by the Guardian‘s Paul Lewis, and an American businessman’s cameraphone video of the assault, that launched the independent inquiry which eventually led to the trial of Harwood for manslaughter.

The Met’s performance in the case was truly lamentable. Tomlinson’s family were discouraged from speaking to journalists and initially prevented from seeing his body. They were not told of the three police officers who, 48 hours after Tomlinson’s death, said they had seen a colleague strike him with a baton and push him to the ground. And for five days the family were denied details of the bruises and dog bites on the dead man’s legs, not to mention the three litres of bloody fluid found in his stomach.

Then there was the conflict in pathologists’ opinions on the probable cause of Tomlinson’s death. The first pathologist opined that he had died from a heart attack. QED. But after the Guardian published the camera phone video, the Independent [sic] Police Complaints Commission (IPCC) launched a criminal inquiry and further post-mortems concluded that Tomlinson had died from internal bleeding caused by blunt force trauma to the abdomen, in association with cirrhosis of the liver. In May 2011, a inquest jury returned a verdict of unlawful killing, which then led to the prosecution of PC Harwood for manslaughter. Yesterday, he was found not guilty on a majority verdict of the jury.

So now we have two contradictory verdicts: unlawful killing; and acquittal of the only person who might have been implicated in the death.

Fair enough, you may say — though obviously very hard on the Tomlinson family. Our justice system stipulates that juries have to be convinced “beyond reasonable doubt” and members of this panel clearly were unable to convince themselves that there was an unambiguous causal connection between Harwood’s assault and Tomlinson’s death.

But then came the revelations of the information about Harwood that had been withheld from the jury. It turns out that he has had a chequered history as a police officer, including disciplinary hearings over allegations of having punched, throttled, kneed or threatened suspects while in uniform (although it should be said that only one of these complaints was upheld).

Question: would the criminal trial jury’s verdict have been different if they had known about Harwood’s background?

Answer: possibly yes, which is why so many lay people today are outraged by the acquittal. But keeping the jury in the dark was the right thing to do, given the values embodied by our justice system. Harwood was not being tried for his past, but for this particular offence. People are innocent until proven guilty, and even bad eggs can be innocent of a particular crime, no matter how heinous their backgrounds might be.

It’s an interesting case of the importance of intangible values. A justice system which convicted people on the sworn testimony of a police or Intelligence officer would doubtless be a highly efficient one. But we — rightly — value justice more highly than efficiency. And, as m’learned friends sometimes say, hard cases make bad law.

The iPad tsunami

From Good Morning Silicon Valley:

A pair of surveys released today detail the latest trends in what people are doing with their iPads. The interesting bits in a nutshell: The wildly popular Apple tablets are being used more, and more often for business purposes.

The third annual iPad usage survey from Business Insider found that people are spending significantly more time on their tablets. 47 percent of those polled use their iPad between two and five hours a day, up from 41 percent last year and 38 percent in 2010, and 10 percent use it five to eight hours a day (up from 8 percent last year). Overall, 64 percent reported increasing their time on the iPad once they got past the giddy initial exploratory phase. That increased usage is coming at the expense of desktops and laptops — 47 percent now consider their iPad their primary computer, up from 29 percent in 2010. Web surfing is the most popular iPad activity (taking up 37 percent of users’ time), followed by email and social networking (21 percent). The survey found almost 60 percent of web browsing by those polled is now done away from a traditional computer, with 45 percent using their iPads the most and 14 percent using smartphones the most. People also seem to be happy with their iPads — 84 percent have no interest in a Kindle Fire or Nexus 7 tablet, and 70 percent say they wouldn’t be interested in a smaller iPad.

How to blow $6.2bn

Verily, you could not make this up. A headline saying that Microsoft had made its first-ever loss caught my eye. I assumed it must be a mistake: Microsoft doesn’t make losses for the simple reason that it has a licence to print money. It’s called Windows+Office. But then it turns out that Microsoft blew $6.2bn a while back on an advertising company which has now turned out to be worthless. What always amuses me about tech company valuations is how solemn are the assurances from men in suits that the valuation they have arrived at by consulting the entrails of a goat is in fact a perfectly rational assessment of the asset’s value. I am sure that that $6.2bn valuation was likewise quality-assured by the same clowns.

Microsoft has written down the value of an online advertising firm it bought five years ago by $6.2bn (£4bn).

Microsoft bought Aquantive for $6.3bn in cash in an attempt to catch rival Google in the race to increase revenues from search-related advertising.

The writedown effectively wipes out the acquisition’s value, although there was little impact on Microsoft’s shares in after-hours trading on Monday.

The purchase of Aquantive in 2007 was then Microsoft’s biggest acquisition.

It has since been eclipsed by the company’s $8.5bn purchase of internet phone service Skype last year.

Microsoft said in a statement on Monday that “the acquisition did not accelerate growth to the degree anticipated, contributing to the writedown”.

Google Nexus 7: first impressions

My Nexus 7 arrived yesterday. Here are first impressions:

Upsides

  • Yay! It does fit in a jacket pocket. In fact it’s easy to carry about unobtrusively.
  • Battery life: no rigorous test, but seems reasonable. At any rate it’s largely untouched (67% remaining) after a day’s text and browsing work (no multimedia). The Settings panel is very informative about battery use, showing which Apps are using most power.
  • Settings are easy and intuitive.
  • On-screen keyboard: Nice but seems erratically unresponsive at times. (Or else I haven’t figured out how to drive it.) Better layout than the default layout on iPad keyboard. Big plus: because of the physical size of the device and the portrait orientation I can type with two thumbs, like I used to do with my Psion 3 in the dim and distant past.
  • I tried it with Apple Bluetooth keyboard. Pairing was a bit fiddly. But once done, it worked just fine.
  • Nice screen.
  • Lighter than iPad. Easier to use as e-reader.
  • Great autocorrect when typing in Write app.
  • Very simple setup. Google ecosystem works well. Well, it ought to: if they can’t get that right, then they ought to quit.
  • Immediate auto-upgrade to Jelly Bean (where do they get these idiotic names?) You can also set Apps to auto-upgrade. Wonder if that’s also true of the OS. One of the bugbears with Android that drove me into the arms of IoS was the problem of upgrading from one Android version to another.)
  • Neat packaging and small charger.
  • Downsides

  • Portrait only – except for YouTube. I naively thought that this was controlled by software. But it seems to be baked in. This is very restrictive, especially for web pages. Unacceptably small print is the only way it can get everything in. I was completely wrong about this. Jeff Jarvis kindly explained (on Twitter) that there is a tiny icon in the Notifications panel which enables screen rotation to be toggled on or off. But there’s a cunning kicker: the home screen doesn’t auto-rotate; it’s only when one is running an app that rotation works.
  • Front-facing camera. Hopeless for photography. Not particularly impressive but adequate for Skype.
  • Twitter app not as good as the iPad version.
  • Only WiFi. No 3G. (Worked fine with iPhone as modem, though.)
  • Mixed

  • Apps ecosystem seems more chaotic than the IoS one. (This may be a reflection of my unfamiliarity with Android, not having used an Android device for 18 months.) Some apps, however, seem pretty good. Kindle for example. Ditto a note/journal writing tool called Write. Ditto Evernote. Nice integration between apps — eg between Write and Evernote. WordPress blogging app seems better than the IoS one. (Memo to self: check for upgrade on IoS).
  • Overall

    Pretty good. Half the price of an iPad. Reasonable performance, good screen and some really good apps. And it fits nicely into your pocket.

    Can’t figure out what the business model or marketing rationale is, though. I don’t think it’s really aimed at the iPad. So is it aimed at the Kindle Fire? (Since I haven’t tried the Fire I don’t have any basis for a comparison.) Most of the existing reviews seem to say: nice kit, pity about the content. But I’m not interest in ‘consuming content’: I want a device that I can use for the work that I do, which mainly involves thinking about, generating and editing ‘content’ (note-taking, newspaper columns, lecture drafts, outlines, photographs). At the moment, the iPad software ecosystem is proving brilliant for all of these uses — but it took time for the necessary apps to appear. The Nexus 7 is nowhere near as good for these purposes at the moment. But perhaps the necessary software will eventually arrive.

    Other reviews

    Charles Arthur — Guardian

    Wired.co.uk

    Tech Review

    PC Advisor

    Daily Telegraph

    Arstechnica

    The end of Assad

    Steve Coll thinks that Assad is finished.

    Now, Assad’s coming demise seems less of an argument than an observation. It looks probable that the President will take his place among the war’s victims, at the hands of a coup-maker within his ranks, or else at the hands of a rebel attack, in the manner of Muammar Qaddafi’s death at the climax of Libya’s rebellion. It is conceivable that Assad could slip into exile, perhaps to a dacha outside Moscow, where deposed Soviet clients and spies used to settle into retirement and give the occasional bitter interview to a Western correspondent back during the Cold War.