Pinochet’s economic ‘miracle’

Just when I was thinking I’d like to dance on the old brute’s grave, along comes Greg Palast and does it for me.

The claim that General Pinochet begat an economic powerhouse was one of those utterances whose truth rested entirely on its repetition.

Chile could boast some economic success. But that was the work of Salvador Allende – who saved his nation, miraculously, a decade after his death.

In 1973, the year General Pinochet brutally seized the government, Chile’s unemployment rate was 4.3%. In 1983, after ten years of free-market modernization, unemployment reached 22%. Real wages declined by 40% under military rule.

In 1970, 20% of Chile’s population lived in poverty. By 1990, the year “President” Pinochet left office, the number of destitute had doubled to 40%. Quite a miracle.

Pinochet did not destroy Chile’s economy all alone. It took nine years of hard work by the most brilliant minds in world academia, a gaggle of Milton Friedman’s trainees, the Chicago Boys. Under the spell of their theories, the General abolished the minimum wage, outlawed trade union bargaining rights, privatized the pension system, abolished all taxes on wealth and on business profits, slashed public employment, privatized 212 state industries and 66 banks and ran a fiscal surplus.

Freed of the dead hand of bureaucracy, taxes and union rules, the country took a giant leap forward … into bankruptcy and depression. After nine years of economics Chicago style, Chile’s industry keeled over and died. In 1982 and 1983, GDP dropped 19%. The free-market experiment was kaput, the test tubes shattered. Blood and glass littered the laboratory floor.

Yet, with remarkable chutzpah, the mad scientists of Chicago declared success. In the US, President Ronald Reagan’s State Department issued a report concluding, “Chile is a casebook study in sound economic management.” Milton Friedman himself coined the phrase, “The Miracle of Chile.” Friedman’s sidekick, economist Art Laffer, preened that Pinochet’s Chile was, “a showcase of what supply-side economics can do.”

It certainly was. More exactly, Chile was a showcase of de-regulation gone berserk….

You might argue that Greg Palast is not exactly a dispassionate commentator. But, interestingly, his view is largely supported by Oxford academic Alan Angell’s more detached account:

The second justification is that Pinochet created a model free-market economy. It is certainly true that there was massive privatisation and effective reduction of inflation. But the negative features are huge. The overall growth rate of the seventeen years of his rule was dismal – a little over 2% per annum. He engineered two massive recessions – that of 1975 (which could partly be blamed on the situation he inherited), and one of 1982-83 (which was due entirely to the regime’s economic policies).

There was enormous social suffering – unemployment at its peak was over 30%, and over 40% of the population were in poverty at the end of his regime. His government reduced social spending, with dire consequences for the quality of public health and education. Moreover, despite the commitment to neo-liberalism, the largest state asset, the state copper corporation Codelco, was not privatised, and Pinochet’s regime received colossal financial support from a state company nationalised by the Salvador Allende regime.

I could go on: the much-vaunted pension privatisation is now under attack, the central bank only achieved real independence under democracy. In truth, only after the recession of 1982-83 did the regime adopt sensible macro-economic policies.

It must also be stressed that these economic measures were accompanied by corruption which benefited Pinochet’s supporters – and also, we know now, the man and his family himself. The privatisations were used to reward supporters, and there was little transparency or effective regulation. The rich benefited enormously in Pinochet’s government leaving Chile with the legacy of one of the most unequal income distributions in the world.

The claim that Pinochet ruled for the benefit of the country can no longer be sustained. Undeniably, Chile has seen great economic progress since 1990 but this, I would argue, is the product of the policies of the democratic governments and not the legacy of Pinochet.

Transcript

I’m always intrigued by the way journalists rework interviews to give them a ‘shape’. Sometimes this involves weaving quotations in ways that are (perhaps unintentionally) misleading. So some time back I resolved that I would put up a transcript of every interview I gave, just for the record.

Below is a transcript of an email interview I’ve just given to a journalist on a New Zealand publication.

Q: Blogs are constantly being talked of as being “on the verge” on mainstream influence. Yet, outside a few cases in the United States (Dan Rather’s “memogate” etc), they don’t seem to have lived up to their promise. Is 2007 the year of the blog, or the year the blog boom finally busted?

A: Silly question — typical of old-media journalism. The significance of blogging isn’t measured by the emergence of publications which have the same clout as old-style media outlets (though the Huffington Post seems to be doing that too), but by the profound change in the media ecosystem brought about by thousands of editorial voices that would hitherto never found a voice or a means of publication. This is a different world from the one in which most journalists were conditioned. So forget the “has blogging peaked?” line; it’s a bit like asking “has oxygen peaked?” The real question is: has old-style print journalism peaked?

Q: Will blogs become (or are they already) recognised news-breakers?

A: Blogs and mainstream journalism have — and will continue to have — a symbiotic relationship: bloggers lack the resources and training to be major news-breakers; what they are good at is informed comment and keeping mainstream journalism honest (see the Trent Lott and Dan Rather cases) and up to the mark.

Q: The Guardian (the UK paper I read most online) seems to have co-opted the blogging model quite well – at least with sports coverage and breaking news like the tube bombings. Can we expect to see more of this cross-pollination by newspapers?

Yep. But the key determinant of success or failure will be the extent to which proprietors and editors understand the profoundly different ecosystem in which they will have to operate. The trick — as the Editor of the Guardian puts it — is not to be ‘on the Web’ but ‘of the Web’.

The most threatened journalistic species right now is the highly-paid, opinionated newspaper columnist. For many of them there are people out there on the Net doing it better — and more cheaply! Note how Time Magazine ‘bought’ Andrew Sullivan’s blog.

Q: Newspaper circulation has declined (according to year-on-year November ABC stats) by another 5 %, on average. To what extent is this due to readers migrating online, and how much is due to a net loss of readers? How ugly do you think these figures will look next year?

A: I’m not an expert on circulation, but the picture varies with different cultures. In Western societies, newspaper circulation is in inexorable decline, mainly because — for whatever reason — young people don’t buy or read papers. My understanding is that newspaper readership is holding up well in Asia, but — as I say — I’m no expert.

Q: Can newspapers and, to a lesser extent broadcasters, make up their lost advertising revenues through online operations?

A: To some extent, but only to some extent. The central strategic problem for print publications is that their classified ad revenues will all be sucked away by the Net. If they were smart they’d have built online advertising businesses like Craigslist years ago. But their managements were too dumb and/or ignorant to understand the threat. They thought it was all about news. It wasn’t and it isn’t.

Q: How much of a threat does YouTube pose to traditional television networks?

Traditional TV networks have their own dire problems — broadcast TV is in inexorable decline because (i) its audiences are fragmenting (because of channel multiplication) and (ii) increased competition for people’s attention from other media and sources. YouTube merely adds to the broadcast TV problem. It might even be part of a solution for some: a few smart TV broadcasters are trying to harness YouTube to widen the ‘reach’ for their products.

Q: And predictions for 2007?

A: If you want to know the future, go buy a crystal ball.

So much for Moore’s Law

From Chris Anderson

Pixar Quiz

I recently had coffee with a friend at Pixar and he mentioned a surprising stat, which I’ll phrase here in the form of a quiz:

Q: On 1995 computer hardware, the average frame of Toy Story took two hours to render. A decade later on 2005 hardware, how long did it take the average frame of Cars to render?

A: 30 minutes
B: 1 hour
C: 2 hours
D: 15 hours

(Hint: designer ambitions always expand to fill the computational space available.)

BlackBerry Orphans

Silly non-article in WSJ.com. Sample:

As hand-held email devices proliferate, they are having an unexpected impact on family dynamics: Parents and their children are swapping roles. Like a bunch of teenagers, some parents are routinely lying to their kids, sneaking around the house to covertly check their emails and disobeying house rules established to minimize compulsive typing. The refusal of parents to follow a few simple rules is pushing some children to the brink. They are fearful that parents will be distracted by emails while driving, concerned about Mom and Dad’s shortening attention spans and exasperated by their parents’ obsession with their gadgets. Bob Ledbetter III, a third-grader in Rome, Ga., says he tries to tell his father to put the BlackBerry down, but can’t even get his attention. “Sometimes I think he’s deaf,” says the 9-year-old…

Lots more in the same vein. Yawn.

A humping good Christmas

From Thursday’s Independent

DUBLIN: Staff at an Irish riding school had to postpone a Christmas party after Gus the camel chomped his way through 200 mince pies and several cans of Guinness meant for their festivities. Gus, starring in the riding school’s Santa’s Magical Animal Christmas Show, filled up while staff were changing for their party.

Hmm… I’d always wondered what camels stored in their humps. P.G Wodehouse would have known what to do with this material.

New Acrobatics

Although I use pdf files a lot, I dislike Adobe Acrobat intensely. For me, one of the great things about Mac OS X is that it enables me to create a pdf from any document without ever resorting to the Adobe program.

Wade Roush has much the same attitude to Acrobat, which is why his review of the latest release is interesting. Sample:

I’ve spent the past few days testing Acrobat 8 and an associated Web service, Acrobat Connect. I’m pleasantly surprised by the number of new features Adobe has provided to help people work together on documents over the Internet–even if those documents aren’t PDFs. When combined, Acrobat 8 and Acrobat Connect form a powerful (and potentially cheaper) alternative to established collaboration and presentation systems such as WebEx and Microsoft’s Live Meeting and Office Groove 2007. They also show how Adobe is beginning to benefit from its 2005 acquisition of Macromedia, the company that founded the interactive-multimedia industry.

Veteran Acrobat users needn’t worry that they’ll lose anything. Acrobat 8 includes all of the core functions of Acrobat 7, including the ability to create, review, search, encrypt, and export PDF documents, and to convert other kinds of documents, such as e-mails, Web pages, and Word files, into PDFs. (I tested Acrobat 8 Professional, which retails at $449. Acrobat 8 Standard, at $299, leaves out a few specialized features, such as the ability to work with CAD documents and create fillable PDF forms. Adobe Reader 8.0, the latest version of the company’s stripped-down PDF viewer, is still a free download.)

It’s the new collaboration features, however, that have me rethinking my negative attitude toward Acrobat and PDF. The features change PDF files–which I’d always seen as the electronic equivalent of museum cases, preserving sacred, untouchable text–into living documents that any number of people can alter, either separately or in concert.

For instance, Acrobat 8 allows users to create blank PDFs and add text by typing, just the way one would with a new Word file. That’s a major shift in itself; it means PDF can be a document’s “native” format, not just a way to package material created using other applications.

The program also offers better tools for providing feedback about PDF documents–a key feature for professionals like lawyers, publishers, or journalists. Conveniently, all of Acrobat’s commenting tools now appear in a single floating toolbar. If you don’t like the way your boss rewrote your section of the company’s annual report, the toolbar provides a whole playground of tools for expressing yourself: beyond the traditional colored-highlighter tool, there are tools for creating deletions and insertions, sticky notes, boxes, circles, freehand drawings, pretty little thought bubbles or “clouds,” draggable “callouts” with arrows that point to a specific passage, and “rubber stamps” saying things like “Draft,” “Confidential,” and “Sign Here.” You can even attach an audio file downloaded from your dictation machine.

Even cooler, though, is a new collaboration feature called Shared Reviews. When it’s activated, comments and markups added to a PDF file by reviewers are no longer saved within the document itself, but are uploaded to a central location on an organization’s computer network, such as a network server or Web server. Every time a team member opens the document, Acrobat retrieves the latest changes from the server. Whenever a reviewer adds a new comment, the program notifies all of the other reviewers. In other words, team members no longer have to wait their turn for access to a document, or create separate edited versions that someone must eventually merge back into the “master copy.” With Shared Reviews, many people can work on the same document in parallel.

My guess is that this might worry Microsoft quite a lot. Those of us who work in the Open Source world know that one of the factors which makes companies wary of moving to Open Office is that they have built their corporate working procedures around the commenting tools in Microsoft Word. (Virtually every legal firm in the western world, for example, uses the program in that way.) But companies also use Acrobat to “freeze” the final Word document in pdf form. If Adobe is offering a way of doing all this in Acrobat without having to go through the Word phase first, then they might find it an attractive proposition.

Cheney to be a grandad — again

NO REPUBLICAN in Washington is more beloved by social conservatives than the Vice-President Dick Cheney, who with his wife Lynne, has backed and breathed every issue dear to them for six tumultuous years.

News that Mr Cheney’s gay daughter, Mary, is pregnant has therefore touched a raw nerve as advocates for conservative family values struggle to reconcile their loyalty to the Cheneys with their visceral opposition to same-sex relationships – and particularly to raising a child without a father.
“Not only is she doing a disservice to her child, she’s voiding all the effort her father put into the Bush Administration,” said Janice Shaw Crouse, a senior fellow at the Beverly LaHaye Institute, run by Concerned Women for America.

Asked why the Administration played down the news, she said: “This is Cheney’s daughter; anything they say will make the situation worse.”

[Source]

Bah, humbug!

Er, from The Register

A new study from AirMagnet has demonstrated that Wi-Fi signal strength can drop by up to 25 per cent when seasonal decorations are in place.

Shiny baubles can reflect wireless networking signals, while flashing lights generate all sorts of interference. Sticking to the traditional holly and ivy won’t do you any good either, as plants are notorious for blocking the 2.4GHz signal Wi-Fi relies upon.

Carrying out a full wireless survey or network analysis might be overkill, but AirMagnet recommends that signal degradation can often be mitigated just by moving decorations away from access points, and remembering that every barrier between access point and user will lead to a weaker signal.

Thanks to Bill Thompson for spotting it.

The Gowers Report

Hmmm. The Gowers Report on Intellectual Property has been published. I haven’t read it through yet (in fact have only read the Press Release). When I started on the Report proper, I was immediately distracted by the Gowers signature:

That doesn’t seem at all safe to me. I mean to say, how do we know that this is the real Andrew Gowers, rather than a cheap counterfeit copy knocked up in Bangkok?

UPDATE: Bill Thompson has been reading the report. His initial impression is one of relieved surprise. Given what could have happened to the document, it seems sensible. And it’s delicious to think that ‘Sir’ Cliff Richard’s er, descendants, will not be able to wax fatly on his royalties after all. Gowers thinks that 50 years is quite enough, thank you very much. Actually, of course, it’s far too much, but we will leave that pass. I’m still trying to work out when Windows 95 comes out of copyright, for example.

What’s in a name?

From the Pew Research Center

A mostly insiders-only debate about whether Iraq is in a state of civil war broke out into the open last week when two major news organizations announced that they would henceforth refer to the conflict as a civil war. According to polling in September by the Pew Research Center, much of the public had already reached that conclusion. By a 50%-to-37% margin, more Americans said the current violence in Iraq was mostly a civil war than said it was mostly an insurgency aimed at the United States and its allies.

Interestingly, whether respondents thought it was a civil war or an insurgency didn’t seem to affect their attitudes towards whether the US should stay in Iraq.