Tuesday 11 January, 2021

Quote of the Day

”Cooking is a minor art. I cannot imagine an hilarious soufflé, or a deeply moving stew.”

  • Kenneth Tynan

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Ola Gjeilo | The Ground | Pleni sunt caeli et terra gloria tua.

Link

I was ambushed by this. There’s another performance here with the composer at the piano.


Long Read of the Day

The American polity is cracked, and might collapse.

So how should Canada prepare for Trump v2.0?

A striking OpEd by Thomas Homer-Dixon in the country’s leading newspaper, The Globe and Mail:

“I’m a scholar of violent conflict,”. He writes.

For more than 40 years, I’ve studied and published on the causes of war, social breakdown, revolution, ethnic violence and genocide, and for nearly two decades I led a centre on peace and conflict studies at the University of Toronto.

Today, as I watch the unfolding crisis in the United States, I see a political and social landscape flashing with warning signals.

By 2025, American democracy could collapse, causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence. By 2030, if not sooner, the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship.

Despite the dramatic tone of the headline over the piece, it’s actually a desperately serious piece. And both adjectives count. By exploiting people’s fear and anger, Trump and a host of acolytes and wannabees such as Fox’s Tucker Carlson and Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene have captured the Republican Party and transformed it into a near-fascist personality cult that’s a perfect instrument for wrecking democracy.

Homer-Dixon cites David Frum’s view that Trumpism increasingly resembles European fascism in its contempt for the rule of law and glorification of violence. He points to the viral circulation of ‘holiday photos’ showing Republican politicians and their families, including young children, sitting in front of their Christmas trees, all smiling gleefully while cradling pistols, shotguns and assault rifles.

It’s the possession of 400 million guns in ordinary citizens’ hands that make political polarisation in the US more dangerous than in any other democracy.

All of which makes this a worrying and compelling read.


Anne Enright on Ulysses @100

2022 is the centenary of the publication of Joyce’s Ulysses — so you can expect a lot about it in this space. But just for starters, the Irish novelist Anne Enright has a lovely essay marking the anniversary in the New York Review of Books, which is, alas, probably behind its paywall. But here, for your delectation, is how she ends the piece.

Recently, just to get the full experience, I sat on a bench near the Forty Foot, the swimming spot below the Martello tower where Buck Mulligan goes for his dip, and I read a page or two. It was a mild September afternoon. The day was so windless and still, I could hear a man address a quiet friend, one leaving, one arriving, both of them with their towels rolled.

“Hello there, young Thomas,” he said. “Were you aware that a certain gentleman is home this week? Your presence may be required.”

And it seemed to me a continuation of the book I held in my hand.

“I’ve been in since four,” the man went on, cheerfully. “Went for a walk, took a Barry White in the new jacks they have up there. Lovely.” The local council had recently reopened a nearby public restroom, so this good news was both personal and civic. It was also astonishingly male.

I felt a theory coming on. I wondered at the way male speech often confuses top and bottom, why Irish men are so happily described as “talking shite” or “bollocks,” or why an “old fart” is by default male. So many of the men in Ulysses are heard huffing and blowing, not to mention gassing about politics. Perhaps, for Joyce, speech was just another thing that came from the body and lingered on the air. If you ask me what Ulysses has to offer—despite the maleness of the text, despite the author’s perversion, despite the way it exists not on the page but in your reading of the page—the answer is still “Everything, everything, everything.”


Canon reaches the end of the DSLR line

Health warning: What follows may be of interest only to photographers, but it marks a significant moment in photographic history.

DSLR stands for ‘Digital Single Lens Reflex’, which just means that it’s a Single Lens Reflex (SLR) which has a digital sensor where film used to go.

SLRs first appeared in the late 1940s and Nikon was the first Japanese manufacturer to build them, and for many years Nikons (and Leica rangefinder cameras) were the preferred tool of professional photographers — especially war correspondents. The fact that Nikons and Leicas were built like tanks may have had something to do with it. It is said that Don McCullin’s life may have been saved by his Nikon F, which allegedly stopped a bullet during the Vietnam war.

Here, in comparison, is my beloved F3 (a later version of McCullin’s camera), which is in better nick — possibly because its owner has led a sedentary life in which the only dangerous activity involved was jumping to conclusions.

For 30 years, Nikon had the pro market largely to itself, but in 1987 Canon introduced an autofocus system that was much better than the Nikon equivalent (which was designed to be backwards-compatible with all existing Nikon lenses and was therefore clunky). Canon brutally decided to abandon its legacy kit and created a completely new system which was significantly better, and from the 1990s onwards Canons became the favourite of sports and news snappers.

When digital sensors appeared and DSLRs replaced their analogue predecessors, Nikon again took the lead, but Canon overtook it in 2012 and has been ahead ever since. Some marketing genius in Canon had the idea of encasing all the long lenses in their range in white plastic, which meant that sports fans watching on TV eventually only saw photographers with Canon gear.

The trouble with DSLRs, though, is that they still had that mechanical mirror that flipped up just before the photograph was taken, and I guess it was only a matter of time before the industry realised that digital displays would make that last bit of click-clunk redundant. Thus was born the ‘mirrorless’ DSLR, where the optical viewfinder is replaced by a tiny, high-resolution, digital screen.

Which is why Canon has looked in the mirror and decided that it can no longer see its future in it. Flipping mirrors henceforth belong in photo museums. It’s called progress. But it may also represent Canute-style futility. Most photographs today are taken by smartphone cameras, equipped with sensors that produce images that are computationally enhanced by powerful processing engines in the phones — with results that are sometimes as good as anything a relatively bulky Canon, Nikon, Panasonic or Sony can produce.

Which, I guess means, that traditional cameras may eventually become quirky devices used only by enthusiasts. After all, the First Law of Photography states that the best camera is the one you happen to have with you.


Errata

The link in yesterday’s edition to Joan Baez’s rendition of ‘The Battle Hill of the Republic’ should have been this. Apologies and thanks to those who tactfully pointed it out.


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Monday 10 January, 2022

Teasels

Amazing plants. Seen on a woodland walk yesterday.


Quote of the Day

“Many single-species societies in nature are like a human society in the grip of civil war. A single human society at war with itself is a complex adaptive system, in the sense that it is composed of agents following their respective adaptive strategies. But clearly, and this is a crucial distinction, the society suffering a civil war is not itself adaptive as a system. After all, it’s breaking apart.

  • David Sloan Wilson, in an essay on E.O. Wilson

I was reminded of this as I pondered the chronic divisions in Washington four days ago.


Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

When I was putting together the January 6 edition of this blog last week, I thought of selecting a bizarre recording of the Soviet Red Army choir singing ‘The Battle Hymn of the Republic’ but then rejected the thought for couple of reasons: it would have been a tastelessly ironic commentary on the anniversary of an ominous portent; and the fact that (as an ignoramus) I actually knew very little about the hymn. So I selected a more upbeat track instead.

Only later did I read Heather Cox Richardson’s blog post on the day. This is how it began:

Just before sunrise on a November day in 1861, Massachusetts abolitionist Julia Ward Howe woke up in the Willard Hotel in Washington, D.C. She got out of bed, found a pen, and began to write about the struggle in which the country was engaged: could any nation “conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal” survive, or would such a nation inevitably descend into hierarchies and minority rule?

Howe had faith in America. “Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord,” she wrote in the gray dawn. “He is trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored; He hath loosed the fateful lightning of His terrible swift sword; His truth is marching on.”

She thought of the young soldiers she had seen the day before, huddled around fires in the raw winter weather, ringing the city to protect it from the soldiers of the Confederacy who were fighting to create a nation that rejected the idea that all men were created equal: “I have seen Him in the watch-fires of a hundred circling camps; They have builded Him an altar in the evening dews and damps; I can read His righteous sentence by the dim and flaring lamps, His day is marching on.”

Howe’s Battle Hymn of the Republic became inspiration for the soldiers protecting the United States government. And in a four-year war that took hundreds of thousands of lives, they prevailed. Despite the threats to Washington, D.C., and the terrible toll the war took, they made sure the Confederate flag never flew in the U.S. Capitol.

And guess what? Here’s a photograph taken on January 6, inside the Capitol. The emblem of white supremacy had reached the heart of the American government.

At which point, I regretted not having the hymn as the Musical Alternative of the day. So here it is, belatedly … sung by Joan Baez

Link

Later in the day I was reminded that I also chose this recording for the edition of 5 November, 2020 as I pondered the numbers who had voted for Trump. An equally sombre moment.


Long Read of the Day

Capital Is Not a Strategy

If you’re looking for an intelligent antidote to the current irrational investment bubble, then this essay by Bill Janeway on Project Syndicate is just the ticket. In it he points out that the apparently limitless supply of low-cost capital available to entrepreneurs and early-stage venture-capital firms has led to the proliferation of business models with little or no potential to generate sustainable, self-financed growth. A delusion — “capital as a strategy” — has taken hold. “In the low-friction world of internet-delivered or mediated services, start-ups are eager to spend ever-greater amounts of other people’s money to acquire customers, the goal being to emerge victorious in a winner-takes-all race.”

And the strange thing is that we all know how this is ultimately going to end.

Great read. Worth your time. And if you want more, there’s the new edition of Bill’s book, Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy which, as it happens, I’ve been re-reading for something I’m working on at the moment.


Why the craze for crypto art really is beyond satire

Yesterday’s Observer column:

On 24 December, the movie Don’t Look Up began streaming on Netflix following a limited release in cinemas. It’s a satirical story, directed by Adam McKay, about what happens when a lowly PhD student (played by Jennifer Lawrence) and her supervisor (Leonardo DiCaprio) discover that an Everest-size asteroid is heading for Earth. What happens is that they try to warn their fellow Earthlings about this existential threat only to find that their intended audience isn’t interested in hearing such bad news.

The movie has been widely watched but has had a pasting from critics. It was, said the Observer‘s Simran Hans, a “shrill, desperately unfunny climate-change satire”. The Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw found it a “laboured, self-conscious and unrelaxed satire… like a 145-minute Saturday Night Live sketch with neither the brilliant comedy of Succession … nor the seriousness that the subject might otherwise require”.

Those complaints about crudity and OTT-ness rang a bell. It just so happens that a distinctly over-the-top satire published in 1729 attracted comparable reactions…

Read on


The UK’s kleptocracy problem

How servicing post-Soviet elites weakens the rule of law

Bracing report by Chatham House on how London has become the money-laundering capital of the world. The UK does, of course, have laws against that kind of thing. But the report shows that failures of enforcement and implementation of the law – plus the exploitation of loopholes by professional enablers (including some of the City’s fanciest legal firms) – have meant that little has been done in practice to prevent kleptocratic wealth and political agendas from entering Britain.

It’s a long, long read which will shock only those who have been vacationing on Mars. If you’re pressed for time, just see the Summary. Or, better still, Cory Doctorow’s acerbic analysis, especially this paragraph:

As interested as oligarchs are in being associated with the charitable sector, they’re even more interested in funding the UK Conservative Party itself. The Tories’ co-chairman Ben Elliot has formalized a “cash for access” arrangement where major donors are invited to private events and dinners with ministers and the PM. Elliot is a natural to court oligarchs for the Tories; his day job is running a “luxury concierge service” called Quintessentially, which provides “services” to the ultra wealthy. Elliot’s spox says that this work is “entirely separate” from his work as co-chair of the Tories.

All of which puts Boris Johnson’s wallpaper wheeze into context. By comparison with what his funders facilitate, it’s really small change. That’s no reason to ignore it, but it provides an ironic commentary on his fatuous declaration at COP26 that Britain is not a corrupt state.


My commonplace booklet

Don’t throw apple cores out the car window

I’m normally pretty scrupulous about not littering, but one thing I have done in the past is to throw apple cores out of the window onto roadside verges. After reading this piece by Katherine Martinko, though, I won’t be doing it from now on. Turns out that a study of apple trees along the sides of the M9 and A9 highways in Scotland by Dr. Markus Ruhsam, a botanist and molecular ecologist at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Edinburgh, has revealed that more than half have sprouted from supermarket apple varieties that have most likely been pitched out a car window in passing. This is a concern because the cultivated varieties cross-pollinate with wild apples to create hybrids that could lead to the eventual demise of wild varieties.


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Why the climate-wrecking craze for crypto art really is beyond satire

Today’s Observer column:

On 24 December, the movie Don’t Look Up began streaming on Netflix following a limited release in cinemas. It’s a satirical story, directed by Adam McKay, about what happens when a lowly PhD student (played by Jennifer Lawrence) and her supervisor (Leonardo DiCaprio) discover that an Everest-size asteroid is heading for Earth. What happens is that they try to warn their fellow Earthlings about this existential threat only to find that their intended audience isn’t interested in hearing such bad news.

The movie has been widely watched but has had a pasting from critics. It was, said the Observer’s Simran Hans, a “shrill, desperately unfunny climate-change satire”. The Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw found it a “laboured, self-conscious and unrelaxed satire… like a 145-minute Saturday Night Live sketch with neither the brilliant comedy of Succession … nor the seriousness that the subject might otherwise require”.

Those complaints about crudity and OTT-ness rang a bell. It just so happens that a distinctly over-the-top satire published in 1729 attracted comparable reactions…

Read on

Friday 7 January, 2021

King’s Chapel

An unusual view of an iconic building.


Quote of the Day

”So, we are watching people in Kazakhstan try to recover the right to have a say in their own government on the anniversary of the day that Americans came perilously close to losing that right. “

  • Heather Cox Richardson on yesterday’s edition of her terrific blog.

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

“God Bless America” | Flash Mob with Denver Brass

Link

I was going to put up a recording of the Soviet Army choir singing (ponderously) The Battle Hymn of the Republic but, in the light of the near-death experience of said Republic a year ago, I thought our American friends could do with a boost instead.


Long Read of the Day

My plan for today’s reading was creatively disrupted by an email from Dave Birch (Whom God Preserve) about the background story to yesterday’s Musical Alternative (the Rolling Stones ‘Start Me Up’ track.) Dave pointed me to Brad Chase’s memoir, “The Windows 95 ‘Start Me Up’ Story”, which is utterly fascinating, not least because Brad was the senior Microsoft executive who negotiated the deal with Jagger & Co over use of the song.

It’s a great read. Hope you enjoy it as much as I did.


The story of the infamous Downing Street Christmas party

Beautifully told by Ros Atkins. I missed it first time round.

Unmissable.


Such a Positive Dream

Deborah Friedell, writing on the LRB blog about the trial and conviction of Elizabeth Holmes.

On Monday, twelve jurors in San Jose agreed, unanimously, that Elizabeth Holmes was guilty on four counts, including ‘conspiracy to commit wire fraud’ against investors in her company, Theranos. On the charges that she defrauded patients, she was found not guilty. On other charges, regarding particular investors, jurors were unable to reach a verdict. It was a win for the prosecution – Holmes will go to prison – though the mixed bill suggested it had been a near thing. One of the jurors (an actor with a Daytime Emmy for writing the Tiny Toon Adventures theme song) gave an interview to ABC News, reported more fully on The Dropout podcast. When it began deliberating, the jury was divided on ‘most everything’, he said. ‘It’s tough to convict somebody, especially somebody so likeable, with such a positive dream.’

Holmes’s invention was science fiction: her ‘Edison device’ was never capable of running hundreds of medical tests, concurrently, from a single drop of blood. Her defence was that she was very young (nineteen when she dropped out of Stanford to start Theranos), and her older, more experienced subordinates hadn’t told her – in non-technical language that she could understand – that she was deluded. If she hadn’t intended to deceive anyone then she was guilty of incompetence but not fraud. Her lawyers also suggested that her investors should have been more discerning: it wasn’t Holmes’s fault if they weren’t good at their jobs.

Nobody who read John Carreyou’s  Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup would have been in any doubt about the outcome. Presumably Holmes’s defence team tried to ensure that none of the jurors were familiar with it.


My commonplace booklet

  • What news and events did people search most for on Google in 2021? Link
  • John McPhee has a nice story about a young Vassar graduate named Eleanor Gould, “who, in 1925, bought a copy of the brand-new New Yorker, read it, and then reread it with a blue pencil in her hand. When she finished, the magazine was a mottled blue on every page—a circled embarrassment of dangling modifiers, conflicting pronouns, absent commas, and over-all grammatical hash. She mailed the marked-up copy to Harold Ross, the founding editor, and Ross was said to have bellowed. What he bellowed was ‘Find this bitch and hire her!’”

Sadly, (as McPhee admits) it’s not true. But, as the Italians say, “if it isn’t it ought to be.”


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Thursday 6 January, 2022

Turn left for history

A nice signpost on the North Norfolk coast.


Quote of the Day

”I am about to leave literature flat on its face. I don’t want to review books any more. It cuts in too much on my reading.”

  • Dorothy Parker in the final edition of her New Yorker ‘Constant Reader’ column.

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Rolling Stones | Start Me Up

Link

I love this track, not to mention the video of the boys poncing about. But the funniest thing about it is that Microsoft bought the rights to use it in 1995 as the launch music for Windows 95. Which in a way was appropriate, given that Win95 was the first operating system which obliged its unfortunate users to press the ‘Start’ button in order to shut the PC down.


Long Read of the Day

The Lost History of the Electric Car

An excerpt from Tom Standage’s most recent book,  A Brief History of Motion: From the wheel to the car to what comes next. As usual, one discovers that there is nothing new under the sun. When the idea of powering vehicles with gasoline emerged, for example,

Some people did raise concerns about the sustainability of powering cars using non-renewable fossil fuels, and the reliability of access to such fuels. Today, electric cars, charged using renewable energy, are seen as the logical way to address these concerns. But the debate about the merits of electric cars turns out to be as old as the automobile itself.

In 1897, the bestselling car in the US was an electric vehicle: the Pope Manufacturing Company’s Columbia Motor Carriage. Electric models were outselling steam- and petrol-powered ones. By 1900, sales of steam vehicles had taken a narrow lead: that year, 1,681 steam vehicles, 1,575 electric vehicles and 936 petrol-powered vehicles were sold. Only with the launch of the Olds Motor Works’ Curved Dash Oldsmobile in 1903 did petrol-powered vehicles take the lead for the first time.

Henry Ford bought his wife, Clara, a Detroit Electric rather than one of his own Model Ts. And for a time the early EVs were seen as “women’s cars”, possibly because “some men may have liked that electric cars’ limited range meant that the independence granted to their drivers was tightly constrained”. I’m reminded of Ithiel de Sola Pool’s story of how some British men in the 1920s were reluctant to have a telephone installed in their homes because it would allow their wives to have conversations with men to whom they had not been properly introduced.

This is an informative essay which I much enjoyed.


What a Tory donor and a lavish lunch in Mayfair tells us about British politics

Lovely column by Simon Jenkins in the Guardian on how corruption works in Tory circles.

A woman must lunch somewhere. When the prime minister told Liz Truss to examine every road post Brexit, her thoughts naturally turned to Mayfair and Hertford Street. Perhaps that nice caff at No 5. We are after all lunching with that nice American trade envoy, Katherine Tai. Perhaps two measures of dry gin; three bottles of Pazo Barrantes Albariño, a Spanish white wine, costing a total of £153; and two bottles of the French red Coudoulet de Beaucastel, costing a total of £130. Perhaps a £3,000 bill.

Besides, the proprietor of 5 Hertford Street is Robin Birley, half-brother to Boris Johnson’s mate Zac Goldsmith, and buddy of Michael Gove and David Cameron. And he tipped Johnson 20 grand for his “leadership” campaign, wherever that went.

Surely such generosity calls for a kindly nod and wink. 5 Hertford Street posted substantial losses last year, so the money might come in handy. Birley even halved the bill if it could be paid straight away.

Truss’s civil servants were against having such a luxurious lunch but were apparently overruled by their boss.

Worth filing away for later in the year, when Truss will be a leading contender for Boris Johnson’s job when the party eventually dumps him.


The ‘Metaverse’ delusion

From a Fast Company blog post:

”The Facebook version of Metaverse hype is based on a self-serving premise that people will choose to, or even have the option to, escape the “real world” in order to interact in a synthetic one (and sponsored by…). This ignores where things are already headed. What computing has already done for us is add to our existing environment.

In most situations, we don’t want to go into our computers, but rather, we want computers to work in our world, where life happens: at the dinner table, on the train, hanging out with friends, etc. Besides the continued hype around augmented reality, the mobile phone has had the practical effect of bringing all of what computing offers into our literal hands. Wearable mobile computing, and perhaps one day, mixed reality will allow us that value, heads up and hands-free. And, like its predecessors, it will profoundly change how people behave. Whatever the interface, the future of computing is not escape. It is about us, and the amplifying force it has on our own abilities, in the world we already live in.”

Er, hopefully. But I’ve just got a new book by the philosopher David Chalmers predicting that, within a century, we will have virtual worlds that are impossible to distinguish from non-virtual ones. He also seems to believe that humans can live meaningful lives in virtual reality, which makes me wonder what he’s been smoking. But I need to read it first. It’s officially out on January 22.

And then, of course, there’s Heidegger’s view that “technology is the art of arranging the world so that we do not have to experience it”…


My commonplace booklet

”What is the difference between “further” and “farther”? In the dictionary, look up “further.” It says “farther.” Look up “farther.” It says “further.” So you’re safe and can roll over and sleep. But the distinction has a difference and [fact checkers'] know what’s O.K. “Farther” refers to measurable distance. “Further” is a matter of degree. Will you stop pelting me with derision? That’s enough out of you. You’ll go no further.”

From the chapter on fact-checking in John McPhee’s wonderful book on the writing process.


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Wednesday 5 January, 2022

The Year of the Tiger

Quite so.


Quote of the Day

”My imagination functions much better when I don’t have to speak to people”

  • Patricia Highsmith

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Arethra Franklin | Bridge over Troubled Water

Link


Long Read of the Day

On Swapping Gear For Watches

Lovely piece by Conrad Anker which will resonate with any reader who is cursed (or blessed) with a collecting gene.


Tech Predictions (contd.)

Further to yesterday’s sceptical piece about the foolishness of trying to predict the future, Simon Roberts reminded me of Rodney Brooks, one of the most distinguished thinkers about AI and robotics — and also one of the field’s most valuable sceptics.

Way back on January 1st, 2018, Brooks made predictions about self driving cars, Artificial Intelligence, machine learning, and robotics, and about progress in the space industry. Those predictions had dates attached to them for 32 years up through January 1st, 2050. And every January 1st since, he has been evaluating how his predictions (and their attached dates) are faring.

“I made my predictions,” he writes in his latest assessment,

because at the time I saw an immense amount of hype about these three topics, and the general press and public drawing conclusions about all sorts of things they feared (e.g., truck driving jobs about to disappear, all manual labor of humans about to disappear) or desired (e.g., safe roads about to come into existence, a safe haven for humans on Mars about to start developing) being imminent. My predictions, with dates attached to them, were meant to slow down those expectations, and inject some reality into what I saw as irrational exuberance.

I was accused of being a pessimist, but I viewed what I was saying as being a realist. Today, I am starting to think that I too, reacted to all the hype, and was overly optimistic in some of my predictions. My current belief is that things will go, overall, even slower than I thought four years ago today. That is not to say that there has not been great progress in all three fields, but it has not been as overwhelmingly inevitable as the tech zeitgeist thought on January 1st, 2018.

His assessment is long and absorbing — and worth your extended attention, but a few things stand o out for me.

  • Self-driving cars: oodles of hype (including a lot of nonsense from Elon Musk) but “very little movement in deployment of actual, for real, self driving cars”. He recommends Peter Norton’s  Autonorama: The Illusory Promise of High-Tech Driving as an antidote — as do I. It’s out in the UK at the end of the month, but the Kindle version is available now.
  • Recently someone used the fact that Brooks’s predicted date for when electric vehicles would account for 30% of automobile sales in the US was “no earlier than the year 2027” as proof that he is a pessimist whose predictions about autonomous vehicles could not be trusted. Brooks points out that “EV sales in the US were 1.7% of the total market in 2020 (up from 1.4% in 2019). We’ll need four doublings of that in seven years to get to 30%. It may happen. It may happen sooner than 2027. But not by much. It would be a tremendous sustained growth rate that we have not yet seen”.
  • Back in 2018 Brooks predicted that “the next big thing” to replace Deep Learning as the hot topic in AI would arrive somewhere between 2023 and 2027. “I was convinced of this,” he writes, “as there has always been a next big thing in AI. Neural networks have been the next big thing three times already. But others have had their shot at that title too, including (in no particular order) Bayesian inference, reinforcement learning, the primal sketch, shape from shading, frames, constraint programming, heuristic search, etc. We are starting to get close to my window for the next big thing. Are there any candidates? I must admit that so far they all seem to be derivatives of deep learning in one way or another. If that is all we get I will be terribly disappointed, and probably have to give myself a bad grade on this prediction”.
  • He’s (rightly) very critical of the ludicrous hype around big natural language models. “Overall”, he writes, “the will to believe in the innate superiority of a computer model is astounding to me, just as it was to others back in 1966 when Joseph Weizenbaum showed off his Eliza program which occupied a just a few kilobytes of computer memory. Joe, too, was astounded at the reaction and spent the rest of his career sounding the alarm bells. We need more push back this time around”.

We do, and some of us are doing our best. And it’s great to see someone willing to put his own guesses to the critical test.

Meanwhile, the venerable Gartner Hype Cycle still remains the best source of common sense about the Next Big Things in tech.


Commonplace Booklet

  • “The worst checking error is calling people dead who are not dead. In the words of Joshua Hersh, “It really annoys them.” Sara remembers a reader in a nursing home who read in The New Yorker that he was “the late” reader in the nursing home. He wrote demanding a correction. The New Yorker, in its next issue, of course complied, inadvertently doubling the error, because the reader died over the weekend while the magazine was being printed.” (From Draft No. 4: On the Writing Process by John McPhee.)
  • Direct action works — ask this elderly Berlin resident who found a swan on the pavement. Well, it was a cygnet (i.e. a teenage swan) really. But still…

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Tuesday 4 January 2022

Lightness visible

The UK countryside is a bleak place for a photographer at the moment — various shades of brown predominate, and everything is unbelievably muddy. (You should see our boots after a long riverside walk the other day.) Still, sometimes one gets a break, as with this shot taken yesterday morning on a cycle ride.


Quote of the Day

”The Times’s Kat Lay and Henry Zeffman reveal, almost unbelievably, that the sole distributor of tests to pharmacies took delivery of 2.5 million tests before Christmas then shut for four days before they could be distributed.”

  • From Politico’s daily newsletter, yesterday

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Chris Rea | Stainsby Girls

Link


Long Read of the Day

The Haunted California Idyll of German Writers in Exile

Alex Ross’s marvellously erudite and perceptive New Yorker essay on ‘Weimar on the Pacific’ and the “excruciating dissonance” that German intellectual and artistic émigrés in L.A. felt between their circumstances and the horrors unfolding in Europe.

It’s particularly good on Thomas Mann, a difficult character whose publisher Alfred Knopf projected as the “Greatest Living Man of Letters” — which enabled Mann to take on a new public role as spokesman for the anti-Nazi cause.

“Because he so manifestly stood above the partisan fray, Mann was able to speak out against Hitler and be perceived as a voice of reason rather than be dismissed as an agitator.”

Essays like “The Coming Victory of Democracy” and “War and Democracy” remain dismayingly relevant in the era of Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, and Donald Trump. In 1938, Mann stated, “Even America feels today that democracy is not an assured possession, that it has enemies, that it is threatened from within and from without, that it has once more become a problem.” At such moments, he said, the division between the political and the nonpolitical disappears. Politics is “no longer a game, played according to certain, generally acknowledged rules. . . . It’s a matter of ultimate values.” Mann also challenged the xenophobia of America’s strict immigration laws: “It is not human, not democratic, and it means to show a moral Achilles’ heel to the fascist enemies of mankind if one clings with bureaucratic coldness to these laws.”

It didn’t last, of course.

Those exiles who remained in America felt mounting insecurity as the Cold War took hold. McCarthyism made no exceptions for leftist writers who had been persecuted by the Nazis. Brecht left in 1947, the day after he appeared before the House Un-American Activities Committee, and later settled in East Germany. Feuchtwanger longed to return to Europe but, having never been granted U.S. citizenship, chose not to risk leaving.

Thomas Mann, who had become an American citizen in 1944, felt the dread of déjà vu. The likes of McCarthy, Hoover, and Nixon had crossed his line of sight before. In 1947, after the blacklisting of the Hollywood Ten, he recorded a broadcast in which he warned of incipient Fascist tendencies: “Spiritual intolerance, political inquisition, and declining legal security, and all this in the name of an alleged ‘state of emergency’: that is how it started in Germany.”

I learned a lot from this piece. Hope you do too.


Crystal Balls

It’s that time when everyone and his dog sets about making predictions for the coming year.

Not this blogger, though. As Scott Galloway says:

Making predictions is a shitty business. The events leading up to the realization of any prediction make it seem less extraordinary. And when you get it wrong, you’re an insufferable numbskull. The value of a prediction is in the act of making it, not the prediction itself. Contemplating what may happen encourages us to take responsibility for decisions we make in the present. Also, revisiting a prediction and asking why it did/didn’t come to fruition provides insight into the machinations of our world and whether we are progressing or regressing.

Politico’s London Playbook (an essential daily newsletter, IMHO) had an interview with Tom Standage, the Deputy Editor of the Economist, in which he said some interesting things. For example:

  • His paper was “more worried” about Russian troops building up on the borders of Ukraine than about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2022.
  • Taiwan, though, is “the country to watch this year”. At the “sharp end between the two great political groupings,” it is also a place that “matters to business in a way that it never did before,” Standage explains. It has chip supremacy — the Taiwanese chip company TSMC makes the chips that go into the iPhone and that power Google and Tesla’s AI systems.
  • Re Taiwan, there will be Chinese saber-rattling, but that won’t translate into military conflict. But if that prediction turns out to be wrong, the implications could be huge. “Fragile” chip factories could very easily be sabotaged. “You could take all of the engineers out that run them in a single airplane,” he says. “If that were to happen, there would be consequences beyond the geopolitical consequences. It would have a big impact on lots and lots of big tech companies,” Standage warns. “That would affect China itself because the tech supply chains are so intertwined,” he says.
  • U.S. President Joe Biden is “likely to do very badly” in the U.S., and the prospect of former U.S. President Donald Trump coming back “may take a big step closer.”
  • Future of Ireland. Next year will mark the centenary of the foundation of the Irish Free State — it marked the end of the three-year Irish War of Independence. While Standage doubts anything will change next year, the Irish nationalist Sinn Féin party is expected to do well in next year’s Northern Ireland Assembly election. Standage says Irish unification is no longer in the “realms of science fiction,” adding: “I think it was Star Trek that predicted Irish unification in 2024 in one of its episodes in the 1980s. At the time that was so outlandish that it wasn’t shown in Britain. But actually, you know, that timeline is looking more plausible.”

My commonplace booklet

Source

Note: Lucid (of which most people I know have never heard) is a manufacturer of an all-electric, high-performance, very expensive luxury EVs. According to this source it expected to deliver “fewer than 1,000 cars in 2021”. Note the market capitalisation and then check the definition of irrational exuberance.


Errata

Yesterday’s edition was a proof-reader’s nightmare.

  • First of all, on January 2, 2022, it wished readers a ‘Happy 2021’.
  • Secondly the Long Read (Zadie Smith’s wonderful piece on Joan Didion) repeated one of the excerpts.
  • And Duke University’s celebration of Public Domain Day 2022 was re-dated to 2021!

I’ve always admired Sam Johnson’s candid reply to the lady who asked him, indignantly, how he could have mistakenly defined ‘pastern’ as ‘the knee of a horse’ in his great dictionary. “Ignorance, Madam”, he said, “pure ignorance.”

In my case, the corresponding reply to a question about how it was possible to make three such glaring errors in a single edition would be: incompetence, Madam, pure incompetence.


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Monday 3 January, 2022

Evening in Venice


Quote of the Day

“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.”

  • Laurence Peter

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Liam O’Flynn | Newfoundland | From Shaun Davey’s The Brendan Voyage

Link

Since we are all embarking on a voyage through unknown waters in 2022 I thought it might be appropriate to find music that celebrates a successful voyage into similarly unknown waters. This piece is the tenth movement of a landmark work composed by Shawn Davey in 1980 — the first musical meeting between two musical traditions — one represented by an Irish uilleann piper; the other — the classical tradition — represented by a symphony orchestra.

Davey composed the work to mark explorer Tim Severin’s epic voyage across the Atlantic in a leather boat, a replica medieval voyage which set out to prove that it was possible that the 6th century Irish Saint, Brendan, may have reached America before Columbus or the Norsemen. The voice of the medieval boat is represented by the uilleann pipes of Liam O’Flynn, the greatest piper of my lifetime, while the orchestra represents the Atlantic. And the piece marks the culmination of the voyage — the landing in Newfoundland.


Long Read of the Day

Zadie Smith on Joan Didion

Predictably, there have been lots and lots of articles, essays and obits of her, but the very best I’ve found so far is Zadie Smith’s piece in the New Yorker. A few samples:

Magical thinking is a disorder of thought. It sees causality where there is none, confuses private emotion with general reality, imposes—as Didion has it, perfectly, in “The White Album”—“a narrative line upon disparate images.” But the extremity of mourning aside, it was not a condition from which she generally suffered. Didion’s watchword was watchword. She was exceptionally alert to the words or phrases we use to express our core aims or beliefs. Alert in the sense of suspicious. Radically upgrading Hemingway’s “bullshit detector,” she probed the public discourse, the better to determine how much truth was in it and how much delusion. She did that with her own sentences, too.

Or

Whether writing about the invention of “women as a ‘class,’ ” Haight-Ashbury, John Wayne, the death of her family, or her own mental breakdown, Didion’s target was the “psychic hardpan.” This she located just beneath the seemingly rational or ideological topsoil, which she found to be “dense with superstitions and little sophistries, wish fulfillment, self-loathing and bitter fancies.” That she is considered a personal essayist is another one of those literary ironies: even when the subject was Didion, she was still reporting, and no more likely to be sympathetic to her own feelings than to those of Joan Baez, Nancy Reagan, or a kid on acid. She was just another subject among many, prone to the petty delusions of all humans but—crucially—genuinely interested in drilling down into that hardpan, no matter what she might find down there. She wasn’t looking for approval.

Whatever about magical thinking, this is magical writing. Do read it.


How history repeats itself in tech

Yesterday’s Observer column:

The tech companies saw this coming, of course, and it was eerie to see how their responses echoed the playbooks of the tobacco and energy companies of an earlier period, as chronicled, for example, by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway in their 2010 book, Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. The other day, Andrew Bosworth, the incoming chief technology officer of Meta (neé Facebook) was asked whether he thought “vaccine hesitancy would be the same with or without social media”. His reply, verbatim, reads: “I think Facebook ran probably the biggest Covid vaccine campaign in the world. What more can you do if some people who can get that real information from a real source choose not to get it? That’s their choice. They’re allowed to do that. You have an issue with those people. You don’t have an issue with Facebook. You can’t put that on me.”

Sounds familiar? It’s what oil companies came up with when they invented the idea of the “carbon footprint” – ie your footprint on the biosphere, not theirs. It’s the displacement of responsibility strategy: since it’s a free country, nobody’s forcing you to do the thing that’s bad for you. Childhood obesity is the responsibility of the child or of his or her parents. Alcoholism happens because you don’t “drink responsibly”. Radicalisation of the mass shooter is not YouTube’s responsibility. It’s always your fault, not that of the manufacturer of the addictive product.

Do read the whole thing.


Saturday was Public Domain Day, 2022

The annual post from the wonderful Duke Centre for the Study of the Public Domain reminded us that,

On January 1, 2022, copyrighted works from 1926 enter the US public domain,   where they will be free for all to copy, share, and build upon. The line-up this year is stunning. It includes books such as A. A. Milne’s Winnie-the-Pooh, Felix Salten’s Bambi, Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, Langston Hughes’ The Weary Blues, and Dorothy Parker’s Enough Rope. There are scores of silent films—including titles featuring Harold Lloyd, Buster Keaton, and Greta Garbo, famous Broadway songs, and well-known jazz standards. But that’s not all. In 2022 we get a bonus: an estimated 400,000 sound recordings from before 1923 2  will be entering the public domain too!

Given that Winnie the Pooh is a multi-billion dollar franchise, imagine the conference-room full of expensive IP lawyers in Disney HQ wondering how to stop what happens next.

And of course, Xi Jinping’s legal retainers will also be busy, given that images of Pooh Bear are banned in China since (for some unknown reason) they remind people of the great leader.


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Friday 31 December, 2021

Rose-coloured spectacles


A Blogger’s apologia pro vita sua

Link


Quote of the Day

”The road to ignorance is paved with good editions.”

  • George Bernard Shaw

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Giuseppe Verdi | Nabucco | Hebrew Slaves Chorus

Link

I wondered about the wisdom of having a ’slaves chorus’ at the very end of the year. But Wikipedia is very interesting about this particular piece:

Music historians have long perpetuated a powerful myth about the famous “Va, pensiero” chorus sung in the third act by the Hebrew slaves. Scholars have long believed the audience, responding with nationalistic fervor to the slaves’ powerful hymn of longing for their homeland, demanded an encore of the piece. As encores were expressly forbidden by the Austrian authorities ruling northern Italy at the time to prevent public protests, such a gesture would have been extremely significant. However, recent scholarship puts this and the corresponding myth of “Va, pensiero” as the national anthem of the Risorgimento to rest. Although the audience did indeed demand an encore, it was not for “Va, pensiero” but rather for the hymn “Immenso Jehova,” sung by the Hebrew slaves to thank God for saving His people. In light of these new revelations, Verdi’s position as the musical figurehead of the Risorgimento has been correspondingly revised. At Verdi’s funeral however, the crowds in the streets spontaneously broke into “Va, pensiero”.


Long Read of the Day

 The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill

A truly remarkable Wired story by Megan Molteni chronicling how the WHO and the science-policy community ignored the possibility of aerosol transmission of infectious diseases like Covid and persisted in the venerable ‘droplet’ theory of contagion long after it was irrelevant. Nobody knows how many people died needlessly because of this misconception.

It’s a long read, and intricate, but a great example of how to tell a complicated story well.

(Many thanks to Horacio Queiro for spotting it.)


Niall Ferguson on changing his mind

At the beginning of this year, on January 10, just days after the then president had incited a mob of his supporters to march on the Capitol, I hypothesized that we might achieve herd immunity to Trumpism in 2021. “My earnest hope,” I wrote, “was that, having once been infected by the virus of antidemocratic politics, Americans have now acquired some resistance to it.” I thought that the coronavirus pandemic would be behind us by the end of the year, too.

I was wrong on both counts.

Not only has the shape-shifting virus found a way around our vaccines—I write six days after testing positive for Covid, despite three jabs of Pfizer—but a second wave of Trumpism also seems perfectly capable of reinfecting the body politic.

Trump remains amazingly popular among Republicans. Over 72% approve of his handling of the presidency. Asked about his personal attributes, 82% think him authentic and 73% honest and trustworthy. I kid you not. While only 53% are sure they want Trump to run for president again in 2024 (20% are against and the rest are not sure) Trump is miles ahead of the other potential nominees.

Source


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Wednesday 29 December, 2021

A real palace of culture

The National Library of Latvia in Riga, where I once gave a talk. Very striking building that dominates the skyline. But also very functional and nice to work in.


Quote of the Day

”His smile is like the silver plate on a coffin.”

  • Daniel O’Connell on Robert Peel

Reminds me of the observation that Eamon De Valera’s smile was “like moonlight on a tombstone”.


Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Brahms | Alto Rhapsody | Op. 53 | Adagio | Kathleen Ferrier

Link

Very old and poor-quality recording. But perfect for an overcast post-Christmas morning. I first heard it after a recommendation from Alan Bennett. And I’ve always loved Ferrier’s voice.


Long Read of the Day

 Are Platforms Suppressing Evidence of Social Harms? Corporate History Suggests an Answer

It does. One of the things that’s become abundantly clear about the tech giants — especially Facebook/Meta and Google/Alphabet — as they try to get ahead of attempts to regulate them is the extent to which they are copying the playbook used by the oil and tobacco companies.

This fine piece by Stephen Maher lays it out nicely, and includes this quote from a famously revealing memo written by a tobacco company executive in the 1960s:

Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the “body of fact” that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy. Within the business we recognize that a controversy exists. However, with the general public the consensus is that cigarettes are in some way harmful to the health. If we are successful in establishing a controversy at the public level, then there is an opportunity to put across the real facts about smoking and health. Doubt is also the limit of our “product.” Unfortunately, we cannot take a position directly opposing the anti-cigarette forces and say that cigarettes are a contributor to good health.

And the concept of a ‘carbon footprint’ was an invention by BP to shift responsibility for fossil fuel use way from the oil giants and onto consumers. Interestingly, Facebook is taking the same tack now: it’s not for us to judge what people see — that’s up to them.

Great essay. Worth your time.


Remembering Joan Didion

She passed away last Thursday at the age of 87. The NYT had a rather good obituary, but I’m sure there have been lots of others. I’ve always loved her cool, wry, observational style. And she wrote a really fine book about grief. She always looked so fragile. And yet at the same time she was tough as nails.

After news of her death broke, we watched Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold, an impressive biographical documentary directed by her nephew, Griffin Dunne. The photograph above is a still from the film.


Books for New Year’s Resolutions

Tim Harford’s suggestions for those interested in self-improvement.

Some predictable choices — e.g. The Tao of Pooh, Dave Allen’s (invaluable) Getting Things Done and Marie Kondo’s book on tidying (which I cannot abide). But on the other hand Cal Newport’s Digital Minimalism was new to me, as was Chris Anderson’s TED Talks, which Tim says is “is the best book on public speaking I’ve ever read, and I’ve read a lot of books on public speaking.”


My commonplace booklet

  • Vaughan Williams | March Past of the Kitchen Utensils. Perfect for a playgroup! Link

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