Memo from Don

Two days before he resigned, Donald Rumsfeld wrote a classified Memo to the White House which has now been leaked to the New York Times.

The situation in Iraq has been evolving, and U.S. forces have adjusted, over time, from major combat operations to counterterrorism, to counterinsurgency, to dealing with death squads and sectarian violence. In my view it is time for a major adjustment. Clearly, what U.S. forces are currently doing in Iraq is not working well enough or fast enough. Following is a range of options…

The ‘options’ include:

  • Initiate a reverse embeds program, like the Korean Katusas, by putting one or more Iraqi soldiers with every U.S. and possibly Coalition squad, to improve our units’ language capabilities and cultural awareness and to give the Iraqis experience and training with professional U.S. troops.
  • Aggressively beef up the Iraqi MOD and MOI, and other Iraqi ministries critical to the success of the ISF — the Iraqi Ministries of Finance, Planning, Health, Criminal Justice, Prisons, etc. — by reaching out to U.S. military retirees and Reserve/National Guard volunteers (i.e., give up on trying to get other USG Departments to do it.)
  • Conduct an accelerated draw-down of U.S. bases. We have already reduced from 110 to 55 bases. Plan to get down to 10 to 15 bases by April 2007, and to 5 bases by July 2007.
  • Initiate an approach where U.S. forces provide security only for those provinces or cities that openly request U.S. help and that actively cooperate, with the stipulation being that unless they cooperate fully, U.S. forces would leave their province.
  • Stop rewarding bad behavior, as was done in Fallujah when they pushed in reconstruction funds, and start rewarding good behavior. Put our reconstruction efforts in those parts of Iraq that are behaving, and invest and create havens of opportunity to reward them for their good behavior. As the old saying goes, “If you want more of something, reward it; if you want less of something, penalize it.” No more reconstruction assistance in areas where there is violence.
  • Position substantial U.S. forces near the Iranian and Syrian borders to reduce infiltration and, importantly, reduce Iranian influence on the Iraqi Government.
  • Withdraw U.S. forces from vulnerable positions — cities, patrolling, etc. — and move U.S. forces to a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) status, operating from within Iraq and Kuwait, to be available when Iraqi security forces need assistance.
  • Begin modest withdrawals of U.S. and Coalition forces (start “taking our hand off the bicycle seat”), so Iraqis know they have to pull up their socks, step up and take responsibility for their country.
  • Provide money to key political and religious leaders (as Saddam Hussein did), to get them to help us get through this difficult period.

    [JN: Well, well…]

  • Initiate a massive program for unemployed youth. It would have to be run by U.S. forces, since no other organization could do it.
  • Announce that whatever new approach the U.S. decides on, the U.S. is doing so on a trial basis. This will give us the ability to readjust and move to another course, if necessary, and therefore not “lose.”

    [In other words, manage public expectations. Who says Rumsfeld never listened to Tony Blair?]

  • Recast the U.S. military mission and the U.S. goals (how we talk about them) — go minimalist.

    [see above re expectations]

  • This is an amazing document, not because of what it says, but because of who authored it. As he once famously said, “stuff happens”, which is actually a way of absolving himself of responsibility.

    Carbon footprints

    My friend and OneWorld colleague, Peter Armstrong, never does anything by halves. About two years ago he decided that he wanted to reduce his family’s carbon footprint (which was high because he and his partner Anuradha have to do a lot of air-travel). He started with their house in Oxfordshire and installed a heat-pump as well as doing a lot of insulation etc. He also blogged the entire process in a fascinatingly open way. Here is his assessment of where they’ve got to after the first year of the new regime.

    October marked the end of the first year with the heat pump and the other energy saving measures we have put in place. The results are very interesting and to some extent surprising. We can look at them in a number of different ways.

    Our baseline was 2004 when our heating oil cost £2,431 and our electricity £2,292, giving a total energy cost for the house of £4,732.

    Now in 2006 (Oct 2005-Oct 2006) we have only electricity to consider. This breaks down as non-heat pump £1,481 and heat pump £1,663, giving a total energy cost of £3,144.

    So we may conclude that we have a crude saving of £1,579 on the year, about half from using less general electricity and half from using the heat pump instead of oil.

    Perhaps more interestingly, the cost of oil in 2006 would have been £3,403, which would have made us another £1,000 worse off.

    So we could say that the heat pump (cost £13,000) will pay for itself in seven years at 2006 oil prices…

    Justice vs. Wisdom

    From Eben Moglen’s Blog

    The United States Department of Justice announced today that it would be making a radical purchasing decision: stop dealing with the firm it considers an illegal monopoly. No more Microsoft Word at Main Justice. So they will spend $13 million to acquire Word Perfect licenses from Corel. Did they consider OpenOffice at $0? Why bother—Let’s just cut Social Security benefits instead.

    The economics of abundance

    This morning’s Observer column

    MIPS is to computer geeks what BHP (brake horse-power) is to Jeremy Clarkson. It is an acronym for ‘Millions of Instructions Per Second’, a measure of the speed of a central processing unit (CPU). Mips measures raw CPU performance, but not overall system performance, which is determined by lots of factors (such as disk speed and data in and out of Ram) so it would be foolish to use it as the only measure of how powerful your computer is. But Mips is an interesting indicator none the less….