After the election

Wonderful spoof by Michael Kinsley.

Paul Ryan laughed. He stood naked on top of the vice president’s desk in the Senate chamber, scanning the crowd of sniveling politicians below him.

He flexed his muscles, the result of hours spent in the House gymnasium. Look at these pathetic specimens, he thought. Not one of them could do a one-armed pushup if his life depended on it. Not one was worthy of so much as co-sponsoring one of Ryan’s bills. Every single one of them had been elected by appealing to the average citizen in his (or her — Ryan snorted at the thought) district. It occurred to him, and not for the first time, that of all the men and women in this room, only he, Paul Ryan, had been selected for his current office by the president himself.

The president. Ryan’s mind wandered as he thought about the only man who stood between him and absolute power. Mitt Romney was a weakling, he thought — and not for the first time. He’s a man whose views can change. The thought filled Ryan with disgust. His own views were as solid as granite. They were the views of the only clear-thinking woman he had ever met: Ayn Rand.

Ryan thought back on the humiliating “job interview” he had allowed himself to be subjected to before being chosen as Romney’s vice president. Did he have any pregnant, unmarried daughters? Could he see Russia from his living room window?

Worst of all was the probing of his attitude about federal programs such as Medicare and Social Security. His attitude? His attitude was that all of these programs were for pathetic losers. Romney had agreed with him, but said they should keep this opinion under their hats. Ryan had obliged, only long enough to make it through the election. And he despised himself for this. But he did it, and it worked, and the Romney-Ryan team was elected. And now he kept nothing under his hat.

In fact, he didn’t have a hat, or any other article of clothing. Clothing was for weaklings.

Paul Ryan’s ‘budget’ plan: good politics, maybe; bad policy, definitely

Martin Wolf’s evisceration of Paul Ryan’s ‘plan for America’.

Representative Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney’s new vice-presidential running mate, is, we are told, the man with the deficit-cutting plan. Not for this conservative policy wonk are the phoney figures and evasions of cowardly politicians. He is a man whose integrity his opponents have to respect. Yet this story has one drawback: it is false. Do not take just my word for it. This is what David Stockman, director of the Office of Management and Budget under Ronald Reagan and a true conservative, wrote in the New York Times on August 13: “Mr Ryan’s plan is devoid of credible math or hard policy choices.” This is right, with one exception: Medicare. On that, Mr Ryan does offer a hard choice. But the maths are incredible.

Who will choose the next US President?

Answer: a very small number of American citizens, most of whom are uninterested in politics. Startling New Yorker piece by Elizabeth Kolbert.

According to a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, just six per cent of Americans—or less than one-sixteenth of the electorate—think there’s a good chance that they will change their minds about the Presidential race before November. Only nineteen per cent of those polled said there was any chance they’d change their minds. For comparison’s sake, at a similar point in the 2008 election cycle, ten per cent of Americans said they were undecided, and twenty-five per cent said there was a chance they’d switch their choice. Former Clinton adviser Paul Begala recently noted in Newsweek that when you factor out the undecideds in securely red or blue states (since their votes won’t change the Electoral College results), the election comes down to “around 4 percent of the voters in six states.”

“I did the math so you won’t have to,” Begala continued. “Four percent of the presidential vote in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado is 916,643 people. That’s it. The American president will be selected by fewer than half the number of people who paid to get into a Houston Astros home game last year.”

Mutt Romney

The crassness of Mitt Romney continues to amaze Europeans. (It also amazes some Americans, but a surprising proportion of their electorate seems to think that he might be a serious contender for President.) Before his European and Middle East trip the idea that he might win in November was scary enough. Now, it looks like a nightmare or — as Maureen Dowd said in the NYT, “more like Munch’s ‘The Scream'”.

The strangest thing of all about Romney is that, as the saying goes, “there’s no there there”.

There’s a political joke doing the rounds in the US.

A liberal, a conservative and a Tea Party fanatic come into a bar.

Q: What does the barman say?

A: “Hi Mitt!”

Or, as Dowd puts it,

Wherever he went, whatever situation he was in, he remained frozen in himself. It was reminiscent of the stinging review of an Oscar Wilde lecture by Ambrose Bierce, who wrote that Wilde was a “gawky gowk” who “wanders about posing as a statue of himself.”

Dowd quotes a remark by Stuart Stevens [Romney’s Press spokesman] observation that “it’s easy to imagine Romney in the White House”. “I can visualize him right now”, says Dowd, “lapidary and frozen, in the Rose Garden. A statue of himself”.

Romney was annoying and gaffe-prone in London, but that was small beer compared to his irresponsibility in Israel where he effectively egged on the Israelis to launch an attack on Iran and made some unbelievably stupid comparisons between the innovativeness of Israeli high-tech industry and the alleged backwardness of the Palestinians. “As you come here”, he said at a $25,000-a-head fundraising dinner in Jerusalem,

and you see the GDP per capita for instance in Israel which is about $21,000 and you compare that with the GDP per capita just across the areas managed by the Palestinian Authority which is more like $10,000 per capita, you notice a dramatic, stark difference in economic vitality.

He then went on to cite what he sees as the unique factor in this contrast. ”Culture makes all the difference” he said, a phrase that was immediately — and understandably — interpreted as racist, and not just by Palestinians.

As usual, Romney got his facts wrong. According to the World Bank, Israel’s per-capita GDP was about $31,000 in 2011, while the West Bank and Gaza’s was just over $1,500. And he conveniently ignored the fact that the West Bank and Gaza are territories which are effectively being throttled by Israel.

Romney’s observations about the differences between Israeli and Palestinian economic success emanate from a crass (mis)reading of Jared Diamond’s Guns, Germs and Steel: A short history of everybody for the last 13,000 years. In an excruciating dissection of Romney’s errors in yesterday’s NYT, Professor Diamond writes:

It is not true that my book ‘Guns, Germs and Steel’, as Mr Romney described it in a speech in Jerusalem, “basically says the physical characteristics of the land account for the difference in the success of the people that live there. There is iron ore on the land and so forth”. That is so different from what my book actually says that I have to doubt whether Mr Romney read it.

But, says Diamond, “that’s not the worst part”.

Even scholars who emphasize social rather than geographic explanations — like the Harvard economist David S. Landes, whose book Wealth And Poverty Of Nations was mentioned favorably by Mr Romney — would find Mr Romney’s statement that “culture makes all the difference” dangerously out of date.

Ouch!

The end of Assad

Steve Coll thinks that Assad is finished.

Now, Assad’s coming demise seems less of an argument than an observation. It looks probable that the President will take his place among the war’s victims, at the hands of a coup-maker within his ranks, or else at the hands of a rebel attack, in the manner of Muammar Qaddafi’s death at the climax of Libya’s rebellion. It is conceivable that Assad could slip into exile, perhaps to a dacha outside Moscow, where deposed Soviet clients and spies used to settle into retirement and give the occasional bitter interview to a Western correspondent back during the Cold War.

The Real Scandal of Mitt Romney and Bain

I really don’t understand the US. I mean to say, here’s a rich, inventive country stuffed full of innovative and smart folks. And yet the best it can do by way of a presidential challenger is a hypocritical creep like Mitt Romney. Now, serious folks tell me that he might even beat Obama, despite the astonishing contradictions and evasions in his account of himself. This nice New Yorker blog post by James Surowiecki ponders the recent revelations which suggest that Romney didn’t part company with Bain, the private equity firm that made him rich, when he claimed he did.

What Romney’s career shows, after all, is that once you’re at the top, you can keep being called C.E.O. even if you’re not even working at the company. You can get paid a hundred grand a year—chump change for Romney, to be sure, but twice the U.S. median income—while doing, by your own account, nothing at all for the company. You can build up an I.R.A. worth tens of millions of dollars when the maximum annual contribution is four thousand dollars. (Henry Blodget suggests here that Romney’s ownership of Bain Capital shares may explain how that I.R.A. could have legally gotten so big.) And, above all, if you manage a private-equity firm, you can reap the benefit of the carried-interest tax loophole and pay a much lower tax rate on your income than the vast majority of Americans, and you can continue to reap the benefit of that loophole even after you stop working for the firm. None of these things is illegal, but none of them are things that ordinary Americans can benefit from, and that’s the real scandal of Romney’s career at Bain.

Osama bin Laden meets Thomas Hobbes

This morning’s Observer column.

Every time I go through airport security nowadays the thought that comes to mind – as I take off my shoes and belt, unpack my laptop and display my toothpaste in a transparent plastic bag – is that Osama bin Laden won hands down. The same thought pops up when taking a photograph outside the London Stock Exchange – or inside an airport or a railway station – and a uniformed jobsworth appears from nowhere to inform me that photography is “not allowed, sir”. And it also comes to mind whenever the home secretary opens her mouth on the subject of the draft communications data bill, aka the snoopers charter. Terrorism – or the perceived threat of it – has turned democracies into paranoid armed camps in which the state feels justified in assuming that every citizen is a potential terrorist.

The intrusiveness and ubiquity of state surveillance is already shocking. But we ain’t seen nothing yet – the technology is just getting into its stride…

How to reboot the economy (and fix some other problems on the way)

I’m no economist (nor an Hungarian either, as Tony Benn once observed, in an age when Harold Wilson’s two main economic advisers were Tommy Balogh and Nicholas Kaldor), but I can’t help noticing that there’s a very strong correlation between economic activity and the housing market.

Every time someone buys a house, for example, in addition to the work the transaction provides for professionals (surveyors, estate agents, valuers, lawyers) there’s also work for plumbers, electricians, builders and DIY stores as the new owners set about imposing their personalities on their new dwelling. As homeowners embark on renovations or upgrades, finding an experienced electrician near me becomes a vital step in ensuring that all electrical work is completed safely and efficiently. Whether it’s installing new lighting fixtures, upgrading outlets, or rewiring spaces to accommodate modern technology, a skilled electrician plays a crucial role in helping homeowners achieve their vision. This collaboration not only enhances the functionality of the home but also adds value, ensuring that the electrical systems are reliable and up to code.

You can see this multiplier effect in action in any location (e.g. London, Cambridge) where the housing market is still buoyant. But you don’t see much of it in, say, Liverpool or other northern cities, which are indeed mired in recession. It’s not rocket science, therefore, to infer that one practical way of getting the economy moving again might be to loosen up the housing market by encouraging — indeed subsidising — housebuilding, and by tackling the structural deficiencies that is making houses so outrageously unaffordable for large swathes of the working population — including most couples in their twenties and thirties. Just as I was thinking this, I stumbled on a very thoughtful post by Tim Harford, who is an economist, and an insightful one at that. Tim had been going round asking economists what should be done to reboot the economy. The answer, they told him, is that the government has to find a way to get more houses built.

Could a house-building splurge make a difference? Surely. The UK has recently been building a little over 100,000 new homes a year, but the country is acquiring more than 200,000 new households annually, largely as a result of its internal demography, but with net immigration also playing a part. The shortfall has been substantial for many years; there is no reason to expect the UK couldn’t find a use for 300,000 or even 400,000 new houses a year for the next few years – and that means, very roughly, a million new jobs in construction, the entire number of unemployed people under the age of 25. Building houses is an occupation that could plausibly play a substantial role in creating useful jobs and stimulating demand for several years. How, then, to make it happen? The chief obstacle to house building in the UK is the planning system, which, 65 years ago, did away with the idea that if you owned land, you could build on it, and replaced it with a system where planning permission was required. Permission to build houses is severely rationed, and such rationing can be seen clearly in the gap between the value of agricultural land without planning permission (a few thousand pounds a hectare) and the value of such land once permission has been granted (a few million). The difficulty is that local authorities have the ability to grant planning permission but have little incentive to do so, because it tends to be unpopular with existing voters. The huge windfall from winning planning permission falls to whoever has managed to speculate on land and navigate the tangle of planning rules. These serve as nice barriers to entry for existing developers, while driving up the price of building land and so driving down the size of new homes. Tim Leunig, chief economist at CentreForum, a think-tank, has proposed a two-part system of land auctions to get around this problem. Local authorities would buy land at auction, grant planning permission on it and then sell the land on to developers – with some strings attached, if they so choose. The profits would be enormous, and enjoyed by existing residents in the form of lower taxes or better public services. This isn’t the only way to liberalise planning, but it retains local control and democratic accountability – while dramatically increasing the incentive to develop. The Department for Communities and Local Government said last year it would “pilot elements of the land auctions models, starting with public sector land”. That is like practising a dinner party with a doll’s tea set. The government has been in office since 2010; the financial crisis is five years old. A bit of urgency wouldn’t hurt.

Politicians: don’t mess with Shoreditch

This morning’s Observer column on David Cameron’s obsession with ‘Tech City’.

Politicians are desperately keen on “innovation” for a variety of reasons. They think it’s cool and progressive and puts them on the right side of history. It promises to bring growth and prosperity either to their constituency, or to marginal ones, or to both. It impresses the prime minister. It gives rise to endless photo-opportunities. And so on.

In pursuing this obsession, politicians have two kinds of tool at their disposal. The first is area-focused and involves planning laws, tax-breaks, subsidies and other fiscal wheezes. The second approach is company-centred and aims to create incentives that will persuade technology entrepreneurs to carry out this mysterious activity called “innovation”.

There are a number of problems with this. The first is that most politicians – at least in Britain – couldn’t run a bath, never mind a company. The vast majority of MPs have no idea what it’s like to meet a monthly payroll, and only a tiny percentage (only one out of 650, according to a recent study) have experience of advanced research. So they have no idea of what’s involved in technology start-ups, which is why they have as much credibility with entrepreneurs as the aforementioned maiden aunts have with yobs.

The consequence is that most government policy in the field of technology is a combination of blissful ignorance and wishful thinking…

Quote of the Day

“Those are my principles. If you don’t like them,… well, I’ve got others.”

Groucho Marx

Funny that this quote should the one that came to mind when I was thinking about David Cameron.