On this day…

… in 1933, national Prohibition came to an end as Utah became the 36th state to ratify the 21st Amendment to the Constitution, repealing the 18th Amendment.

Just thought you’d like to know. Mine’s a double. No ice.

Blogging’s mid-life crisis?

I missed this post by Nick Carr. Thoughtful, as ever.

I was a latecomer to blogging, launching Rough Type in the spring of 2005. But even then, the feel of blogging was completely different than it is today. The top blogs were still largely written by individuals. They were quirky and informal. Such blogs still exist (and long may they thrive!), but as Boutin suggests, they’ve been pushed to the periphery.

It’s no surprise, then, that the vast majority of blogs have been abandoned. Technorati has identified 133 million blogs since it started indexing them in 2002. But at least 94 percent of them have gone dormant, the company reports in its most recent “state of the blogosphere” study. Only 7.4 million blogs had any postings in the last 120 days, and only 1.5 million had any postings in the last seven days. Now, as longtime blogger Tim Bray notes, 7.4 million and 1.5 million are still sizable numbers, but they’re a whole lot lower than we’ve been led to believe. “I find those numbers shockingly low,” writes Bray; “clearly, blogging isn’t as widespread as we thought.” Call it the Long Curtail: For the lion’s share of bloggers, the rewards just aren’t worth the effort…

He also draws (and discusses) an interesting between blogging and amateur radio in the early years of the 20th century.

Taming the email monster

Lovely idea from Linda Stone

Then, between 2000-2002, when I was working for Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, it wasn’t unusual for my inbox to have a thousand new emails a day. Everybody and their dog seemed to be on email. I filed, filtered, deleted, and delegated. And I called my mother on the weekends.

When I left Microsoft, my emails tapered off to 100-200 a day. In 2006, met Bruno, a mid-level manager in Silicon Valley. When I sent him an email, a message bounced back into my inbox:

“My email response time is 1-2 weeks. 

If you need immediate assistance, you can I.M. me between 9:30 a.m. and 6:30 pm PST or call me between 9:30 -11 a.m. PST.

For issues related to contracts, please contact…”

Bruno, GenY and twenty-something, named three communication tools: email, I.M., and the telephone. He spelled out his response habits. That got my attention.
Why don’t we all take a cue from Bruno? We could start a social movement. We can take back the inbox. I’ll call it eFree.

Managing spikes

Fascinating post about current traffic patterns on the Net.

Lately, I see more sudden eyeballs and what used to be an established trend seems to fall into a more chaotic pattern that is the aggregate of different spike signatures around a smooth curve. This graph is from two consecutive days where we have a beautiful comparison of a relatively uneventful day followed by long-exposure spike (nytimes.com) compounded by a short-exposure spike (digg.com):

The disturbing part is that this occurs even on larger sites now due to the sheer magnitude of eyeballs looking at today’s already popular sites. Long story short, this makes planning a real bitch.

And the interesting thing is perspective on what is large… People think Digg is popular — it is. The New York Times is too, as is CNN and most other major news networks — if they link to your site, you can expect to see a dramatic and very sudden increase in traffic. And this is just in the United States (and some other English speaking countries)… there are others… and they’re kinda big.

What isn’t entirely obvious in the above graphs? These spikes happen inside 60 seconds. The idea of provisioning more servers (virtual or not) is unrealistic. Even in a cloud computing system, getting new system images up and integrated in 60 seconds is pushing the envelope and that would assume a zero second response time. This means it is about time to adjust what our systems architecture should support. The old rule of 70% utilization accommodating an unexpected 40% increase in traffic is unraveling. At least eight times in the past month, we’ve experienced from 100% to 1000% sudden increases in traffic across many of our clients.

The Digger: You dug yourself a huge hole

It’s always a mistake to under-estimate Rupert Murdoch. Here’s what he’s been saying recently.

“My summary of the way some of the established media has responded to the Internet is this: It’s not newspapers that might become obsolete. It’s some of the editors, reporters, and proprietors who are forgetting a newspaper’s most precious asset: the bond with its readers,” said Murdoch, the chairman and chief executive of News Corp. He made his remarks as part of a lecture series sponsored by the Australian Broadcast Corporation.

Murdoch, whose company’s holdings also include MySpace and The Wall Street Journal, criticized what he described as a culture of “complacency and condescension” in some newsrooms.

“The complacency stems from having enjoyed a monopoly–and now finding they have to compete for an audience they once took for granted. The condescension that many show their readers is an even bigger problem. It takes no special genius to point out that if you are contemptuous of your customers, you are going to have a hard time getting them to buy your product. Newspapers are no exception.”

The 77-year-old Murdoch, recalling a long career in newspapers that began when his father’s death forced him to take over the Adelaide News in 1952, said the profession has failed to creatively respond to changes wrought by technology.

“It used to be that a handful of editors could decide what was news–and what was not. They acted as sort of demigods. If they ran a story, it became news. If they ignored an event, it never happened,” Murdoch said. “Today, editors are losing this power. The Internet, for example, provides access to thousands of new sources that cover things an editor might ignore. And if you aren’t satisfied with that, you can start up your own blog, and cover and comment on the news yourself. Journalists like to think of themselves as watchdogs, but they haven’t always responded well when the public calls them to account.”

To make his point, Murdoch criticized the media reaction after bloggers debunked a 60 Minutes report by former CBS anchor Dan Rather that President Bush had evaded service during his days in the National Guard.

“Far from celebrating this citizen journalism, the establishment media reacted defensively,” Murdoch said. “During an appearance on Fox News, a CBS executive attacked the bloggers in a statement that will go down in the annals of arrogance. 60 Minutes, he said, was a professional organization with ‘multiple layers of checks and balances.’ By contrast, he dismissed the blogger as ‘a guy sitting in his living room in his pajamas writing.’ Eventually, it was the guys sitting in their pajamas who forced Rather and his producer to resign.”

Murdoch continued: “Mr. Rather and his defenders are not alone. A recent American study reported that many editors and reporters simply do not trust their readers to make good decisions. Let’s be clear about what this means. This is a polite way of saying that these editors and reporters think their readers are too stupid to think for themselves.”

[…]

Despite the blemishes, however, Murdoch said newspapers can still count on circulation gains “if papers provide readers with news they can trust.” He added that they will also need to embrace technology advances like RSS feeds and targeted e-mails. The challenge, according to Murdoch, will be to “use a newspaper’s brand while allowing readers to personalize the news for themselves-and then deliver it in the ways that they want.”

Murdoch concludes that “the newspaper, or a very close electronic cousin, will always be around. It may not be thrown on your front doorstep the way it is today. But the thud it makes as it lands will continue to echo around society and the world.”

In Borders

Nice observation by Lorcan Dempsey

I was in our local Border’s just now, forlornly looking for a weekend Financial Times. Not finding one, I was looking around aimlessly. A couple of things caught my eye, where one mode influences another.

One of the nice things about Border’s is that you can look for items on their ‘catalog’ in the store. I was amused to see a paper note hanging on the catalog screen: this is not a touch screen. I wonder did they have this issue before the iPhone and the devices it has influenced?

Windows market share

Hmmm… Interesting report from Good Morning Silicon Valley.

The latest numbers from Web tracking outfit Net Applications indicate the market share of Windows in November dropped to a level not seen since the days of Windows 3.11 in the early ’90’s. Now, before you go breaking out that bottle of cognac you’ve been saving to celebrate the end of the Microsoft hegemony, note that this slide still leaves Windows, by Net Applications’ tally, with a market share of 89.62 percent, a level most companies can’t even dream of. Still, that’s down from a high around 97.5 percent back around 2002-2003, and a drop of 2.8 percentage points in the past 12 months alone. The major beneficiary of the defections was Apple; Net Applications said the Mac OS market share last month was 8.87 percent, up from 6.80 percent in November of last year and up from 3.2 percent in November 2004. The survey also showed gains for Linux, shown with a 0.83 percent share, up from 0.57 percent a year ago 0.30 percent in November 2004. And it’s not like Microsoft could find any consolation in Net Applications’ browser share figures, which showed Internet Explorer dipping below 70 percent, while Mozilla’s Firefox climbed above 20 percent and Apple’s Safari and Google’s Chrome also gained ground. The numbers may not have the folks in Redmond tossing fitfully in their beds yet, but they can’t be happy.

On this day…

… in 1984, more than 4,000 people died after a cloud of gas escaped from a pesticide plant operated by a Union Carbide subsidiary in Bhopal, India.

Twitter: the nub of it

At breakfast the other morning with a group of colleagues, two of them expressed the classic put-down of Twitter: “I’m not interested in knowing that someone has just had a cup of tea and put the cat out”. The point of Twitter for me is not really what’s going on my contacts’ lives, but what’s going on in their heads. And that’s what I mostly get from the service, and it’s worth having.