The Internet at 40

From ‘Hot News’ on the Apple site this morning:

The Internet turns 40, June 9, 2009

You’re so used to paying bills, getting your news and weather, and doing more and more of your purchasing online, you probably think the Internet has been around forever. But it hasn’t. As you’ll learn from this program on Open University, the Internet turns 40 this year. How did it get started? Where is it taking us next? Find out by listening to these Internet pioneers on iTunes U…

It seems that the recording of my interview is #4 in the top 100 downloads.

Where the classified-ad revenue went

From this morning’s New York Times.

SAN FRANCISCO — As the newspaper industry and its classified advertising business wither, one company appears to be doing extraordinarily well: Craigslist.

The Internet classified ads company, which promotes its “relatively noncommercial nature” and “service mission” on its site, is projected to bring in more than $100 million in revenue this year, according to a new study from Classified Intelligence Report, a publication of AIM Group, a media and Web consultant firm in Orlando, Fla.

That is a 23 percent jump over the revenue the firm estimated for 2008 and a huge increase since 2004, when the site was projected to bring in just $9 million. “This is a down-market for just about everyone else but Craigslist,” said Jim Townsend, editorial director of AIM Group. The firm counted the number of paid ads on the site for a month and extrapolated an annual figure. It said its projections were conservative.

By contrast, classified advertising in newspapers in the United States declined by 29 percent last year, its worst drop in history, according to the Newspaper Association of America…

Hawthorne Hooey

My post about the illusory Hawthorne Effect brought this lovely email from a reader:

“Curiously I was reminded of the Hawthorne studies just last week – I spent a pleasurable few hours with some friends at a local cinema watching Cinema Paradiso…a lovely film that I first saw one Thursday afternoon nearly 20 years ago.

As a student in Edinburgh, we had two lecturers in Organisational Psychology. One was always able to hold a theatre of 100 students attention no matter how dry the subject matter. The other spent far too long on the Hawthorne studies, and sadly for her, also lectured to us on Thursday afternoons.

Thursdays was half price for students at the Edinburgh Filmhouse.

Needless to say, in my finals, an essay choice centered around the Hawthorne studies. It was luck that I was able to choose from the others.

Almost 20 years later I am reassured that my time was not wasted.”

It’s strange to think of the colossal theoretical edifices that social ‘scientists’ have erected on such a flimsy foundation.

The next Twitter scare

Now that the Daily Mail has latched on to Twitter, stand by for scare stories about how it is — like Google Streetview — the ‘burglar’s friend’. A starting point will be this AP story about an American couple who shared real-time details of a recent trip on Twitter. Their posts said, for example, they were “preparing to head out of town,” that they had “another 10 hours of driving ahead,” and that they “made it to Kansas City.”

While they were on the road, their home in Arizona was burgled. The chap has an online video business called with 2,000 followers on Twitter and he thinks his Twitter updates tipped the burglars off.

“My wife thinks it could be a random thing, but I just have my suspicions,” he said. “They didn’t take any of our normal consumer electronics.” They took his video editing equipment.

You have been warned!

Electorate rounds on Fianna Fáil

Epochal election results from Ireland. This from today’s Irish Times.

FIANNA FÁIL has suffered the worst defeat in its history, and Irish politics will never be the same again. How a Government that has taken such a drubbing can continue to govern and take the decisions necessary to restore the economy to health is now the critical issue facing the political system.

The decision of Fine Gael to table a motion of no confidence in the Government was the obvious move, given its historic breakthrough as the biggest party in the country. More importantly, it is an attempt to focus minds on the profound implications of the election results.

Probably the most striking symbol of the reversal suffered by Fianna Fáil was the fate of Maurice Ahern, brother of the former Taoiseach, who was beaten into a humiliating fifth place in the Dublin Central byelection with just 12 per cent of the first preference vote.

Just two years after Bertie Ahern led Fianna Fáil to an amazing three-in-a-row general election victorysh Times, his inability to deliver even a modestly respectable vote for his brother showed how the mighty have fallen. To rub salt into the wound, Maurice Ahern lost his city council seat to party colleague Mary Fitzpatrick, who had been so cruelly stitched up by the Ahern machine two years ago.

My sister sent me this lovely Death Announcement:

“Fianna Fail. The Soldiers of Disaster (formerly the Soldiers of Destiny*), 1926-2009. Savaged to death at local and European elections. Deeply regretted by builders, developers, bankers and cowboys everywhere.** Remains reposing in large tent on Galway Racecourse. Funeral Mass in Church of St Bertie the Chancer. Burial afterwards in the Golden Circle Cemetery. No flowers, please. Brown envelopes only!”

Footnotes:
* Fianna Fail is the Irish for soldiers of destiny
** Fianna Fail was once memorably described as “the political wing of the construction industry”.

MPs are sheep; political journalists are hyenas

Diane Abbott MP said something interesting on the radio the other day, namely that the atmosphere among her fellow-MPs was “hysterical”. And the cause of the hysteria? Why the expenses scandal (mainly) plus fear of losing their seats. In the circumstances, Abbott worried about her colleagues’ ability to make any rational decisions about Gordon Brown’s future. She might be right.

But what would such a ‘rational’ strategy be like? Answer: it would involve calming down and letting Brown survive subject to conditions about sorting out the expenses shambles and a modicum of attainable constitutional reform (like fixed-term Parliaments, reductions in the volume of legislation, relaxation of the Party whip system and giving MPs the right to choose membership and chairmanship of Select Committees).

Switching leaders now — however emotionally satisfying it might be — would be suicidal, not just for Labour MPs but also for the country. It would provoke an emergency General Election which, if held at the moment, would produce crazy results. In fact, if MPs wanted to ensure a few Westminster seats for the BNP to add to the two European Parliament seats they picked up last night, then provoking an election is the best way to go about it. What should be in everybody’s minds now is what happened in Holland after the murder of Pim Fortuyn — when the Dutch elected a parliament of fruitcakes and rendered their country virtually ungovernable for several years.

As for political journalists… well their orgasmic delight at being able to cover such a juicy story is becoming nauseating. They really are like hyenas closing in on a wounded beast. And apart from anything else, most of them are adding little if any value to the story. And yet BBC TV (and no doubt ITV and Sky too) persist in wasting energy, fuel, time and money ferrying their big name reporters to Downing Street instead of sticking them in a studio or keeping them in Westminster where they can get on with real investigation and reporting.

It’s really irritating, for example, to see the ludicrous way the Beeb is mis-using its Political Editor, Nick Robinson. He’s very useful as a summarising, contextualising commentator after others have done the leg-work. But the most value-adding contribution he’s made over the last few frantic days was a piece to camera recorded at his desk. Dragging him to Downing Street to say exactly the same thing would have been daft. But that’s what they do most of the time.

The Prince of Darkness rules OK

Yesterday, I watched an astonishing masterclass in how to subdue and control a TV interviewer. The master in question was Peter ‘Lord’ Mandelson, and his hapless pupil was Andrew Marr, the former Political editor of the BBC and usually a chap who can look after himself. But yesterday he was reduced to spluttering impotence. Catch it on the iPlayer while you can. The class begins 39 minutes into the programme.

As my colleague Geoff Peters observed, this is a classic. Its nearest counterpart is the confrontation between Jeremy Paxman and Michael Howard.

Making light work of the Hawthorne effect

For nearly a century the so-called “Hawthorne Effect” has been Holy Writ in industrial sociology. It’s based on experiments conducted at the Hawthorne plant in 1924 in which two investigators studied the effect of changes in lighting conditions on the productivity of workers making telephone parts. The observers noted that no matter whether lighting was increased or dimmed, productivity went up — and concluded that it was the fact that the workers knew they were being experimented upon that explained it. (A kind of Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle for social scientists, perhaps.) But now it appears that all that may have been hooey. Here’s what a fascinating article in this week’s Economist reports:

The data from the illumination experiments had never been rigorously analysed and were believed lost. But Steven Levitt and John List, two economists at the University of Chicago, discovered that the data had survived the decades in two archives in Milwaukee and Boston, and decided to subject them to econometric analysis. The Hawthorne experiments had another surprise in store for them. Contrary to the descriptions in the literature, they found no systematic evidence that levels of productivity in the factory rose whenever changes in lighting were implemented.

It turns out that idiosyncrasies in the way the experiments were conducted may have led to misleading interpretations of what happened. For example, lighting was always changed on a Sunday, when the plant was closed. When it reopened on Monday, output duly rose compared with Saturday, the last working day before the change, and continued to rise for the next couple of days. But a comparison with data for weeks when there was no experimentation showed that output always went up on Mondays. Workers tended to beaver away for the first few days of the working week in any case, before hitting a plateau and then slackening off.

Sigh. Yet another example of what TH Huxley described as “the slaughter of a beautiful theory by an ugly fact”.