Professor Mackay’s Illuminations

The classic visual PowerPoint cliche to indicate inspiration is to draw a light bulb over someone’s head. Physicist David Mackay’s inspired idea was that the humble light bulb would provide a graphic way of communicating to non-physicists the scale of the energy gap now facing our society.

We asked David to be the external assessor for our new Open University course on Energy Measurements at Home partly on the basis of his terrific book Sustainable Energy — without the hot air. But we had no idea then that he would be appointed Chief Scientific Advisor to the Department of Energy and Climate Change. It’s clear that he made the video before he knew it either. Wonder how his political masters are getting on with such a clear thinker — and speaker. I suspect they are finding it, well, slightly uncomfortable. Speaking truth to power is generally not appreciated, and I can’t see Professor Mackay trimming to the wind. Someone once accused him of being against wind turbines. He replied: “I’m not against anything. But I am for arithmetic.”

The utility of pure curiosity

Pondering the strange paradox that Cambridge is currently ranked second (after Harvard) in the world ranking of universities, despite the fact that its income is probably only a fifth of Harvard’s, I came on this terrific blog post by Mary Beard, who is Professor of Classics at Cambridge. Excerpt:

I still have a terrible sinking feeling about the new Research Excellence Framework, and its stress on the ‘impact’ of research. I took a good hard look at the recent consultation document produced by HEFCE … and at the “indicators” which might demonstrate “impact”. There are almost forty indicators, of which only four or five could possible ever apply to an arts and humanities subject. Most refer to income from industry, increased turnover for particular businesses, improved health outcome, better drugs (medicinal rather than recreational I imagine) and changes in public opinion (eg reductions in smoking). One of my colleagues ruefully observed that humanities research probably had a track record of encouraging smoking, at least among researchers… all that angst in the library.

Even the indicators which looked as if they might apply to us. Try “enriched appreciation of heritage or culture, for example as measured through surveys.” How on earth would a survey show the impact of, lets say, Wittgenstein? Even HEFCE seems to have given up at the end. Under the category “Other quality of life benefits” there were no indicators. Someone had just written “Please suggest what might be included”. A generous appeal to the academic community, or desperation?

[…]

British research punches far above its weight — unlike British sport (which is no more “useful”). If our middle distance runners did half as well as our universities (four out of the top six in the recent world ranking are British), there would be a national celebration and a triumphal procession in an open topped bus.

And look at the money the government is pouring into sport, on the correct principle … that you have to support generously a wide range of activities and people, in order to produce a very few medallists. Why dont they use that argument for academic research too?

The motorcade factor

This is arguably the silliest thing ever said by a British Foreign Secretary (well, except for all the guff they used to spout about Ireland in the old days):

“I think it would be very good for Britain as well as very good for Europe if Tony Blair was a candidate and was chosen.”

He added: “It’s about whether or not Europe wants a strong leader in that position. I think that hasn’t yet been resolved in the minds of a number of Europe’s leaders.

“My own view is that we need somebody who can do more than simply run through the agenda. We need someone who, when he or she lands in Beijing or Washington or Moscow, the traffic does need to stop and talks do need to begin at a very, very high level. I think Europe has suffered from the lack of that clarity.”

You’d never guess, would you, that young Miliband owes his political career, such as it is, entirely to Blair.

The life of the mind

Saturday dawned damp and overcast, as if November had arrived early. The wind had begun to strip the trees, carpeting the footpath with leaves. It seemed like a day for hunkering down with the newspapers and a good book. But then I remembered that it’s Cambridge’s annual ‘Festival of Ideas’ (the Humanities’ counterpart to the Science Festival of which I’m a Patron). The philosopher Hugh Mellor was billed to give a talk on Frank Ramsey in the University Library at 11am. So I got up and went to hear him.

Frank Ramsey is a Cambridge legend — a wunderkind who died tragically young at the age of 26, and yet made an indelible impression on those who had known him.

I first heard of him when I came to Emmanuel in 1968 and bought a battered copy of Keynes’s Essays in Biography in which there’s an essay on this prodigious mathematican-cum-philosopher-cum-economist. In it, Keynes laments the passing of his young protege and remembers

“His bulky Johnsonian frame, his spontaneous gurgling laugh, the simplicity of his feelings and reactions, half-alarming sometimes and occasionally almost cruel in their directness and literalness, his honesty of mind and heart, his modesty, and the amazing, easy efficiency of the intellectual machine which ground away behind his wide temples and broad, smiling face, have been taken from us at the height of their excellence and before their harvest of work and life could be gathered in.”

Ramsey published only two papers in economics (which was not his main field). They were published in the Economic Journal (of which Keynes was the editor). The first (published in 1927) was “A Contribution to the Theory of Taxation”; the other was “A Mathematical Theory of Saving,” published in December 1928. It addressed the problem of how much should a nation save, and was, wrote Keynes,

“one of the most remarkable contributions to mathematical economics ever made, both in respect of the intrinsic importance and difficulty of its subject, the power and elegance of the technical methods employed, and the clear purity of illumination with which the writer’s mind is felt by the reader to play about its subject”.

Professor Mellor’s talk (largely based on this biographical essay) was fascinating, liberally illustrated with sound clips from a radio profile of Ramsey that he had made with the BBC many years ago (and which is available from the Cambridge Dspace archive if you’re interested). I loved this clip, in which I.A. Richards remembers an early encounter with Ramsey as a teenager:

“Well, my old friend C. K. Ogden had a very queer place called ‘Top Hole’ – named after a war cartoon – above MacFisheries in Petty Cury, and one afternoon there, a tap on the door and in came this tall, ungainly, rather gangling boy. We knew who he was instantly – he looked so like his mother – and in no time almost he was at home. He was from Winchester where he’d been for some time with no one doing much more than saying ‘The library is yours, just do what you want’. He was recognised clearly at Winchester as quite one of the wonders; and there he was, and we chatted along for some time, and then he turned to Ogden and said: ‘Do you know, I’ve been thinking I ought to learn German. How do you learn German?’. Ogden leaped up instantly, rushed to the shelf, got him a very thorough German grammar – and a dictionary, Anglo-German dictionary – and then hunted on the shelves and found a very abstruse work in German – Mach’s Analysis of Sensations – and said: ‘You’re obviously interested in this, and all you do is to read the book. Use the grammar and use the dictionary and come and tell us what you think’. Believe it or not, within ten days, Frank was back saying that Mach had misstated this and that he ought to have developed that argument more fully, it wasn’t satisfactory. He’d learned to read German – not to speak it, but to read it – in almost hardly over a week.”

Four things stand out in my memory from Professor Mellor’s talk.

  • The first is, in a way, about the values that should — but often don’t — apply in academic life, namely fairness and detachment. Keynes’s first major book was his Treatise on Probability. Its central argument was effectively demolished by Ramsey while he was still an undergraduate. Keynes’s reaction? To propose him for a Fellowship at his college — King’s — at the unheard-of age of 21.
  • Ramsey was the person who translated Wittgenstein’s Tractatus. I. A. Richards explained that Ogden had been trying to find someone to translate it, without much success.

    “Well, he’d had a very hard time with the Tractatus, and all sorts of people were called in, and didn’t like any version they could make of it. They couldn’t make it make as good sense in English as – if it made any good sense in German – they thought it should. [G.E.] Moore had been insisting very much that it wasn’t translatable – it would be much better left just as it was. After inventing a title – Moore’s title – one way and another it got into a kind of discard; and then I don’t know who suggested that Frank ought to have a try at it, and as soon as Frank and Wittgenstein got together over this it was clear that there was a possibility.”

    The Tractatus impressed Ramsey enormously. He, like everyone else, found it exceedingly difficult, and he took immense trouble to try and understand it. In the autumn of 1923, after graduating from Trinity College as a Wrangler – i.e. with a First in Part II of the Mathematics Tripos – he went to Austria to visit Wittgenstein, who was then living in a small village outside Vienna. In a letter home, Ramsey gave a vivid picture of Wittgenstein’s life and of the intensity of their conversations.

    “Wittgenstein is a teacher in the village school. He is very poor, at least he lives very economically. He has one tiny room, whitewashed, containing a bed, washstand, small table and one hard chair and that is all there is room for. His evening meal which I shared last night is rather unpleasant coarse bread, butter and cocoa. His school hours are eight to twelve or one and he seems to be free all the afternoon. He is prepared to give four or five hours a day to explaining his book. I have had two days and got through seven out of eighty pages. He has already answered my chief difficulty which I have puzzled over for a year and given up in despair myself and decided he had not seen. It’s terrible when he says ‘Is that clear?’ and I say ‘No’ and he says ‘Damn, it’s horrid to go through all that again’.”

  • Thirdly, I hadn’t known is that Ramsey had done pioneering work in the philosophy of science, in particular on the nature of theories. His view was that any scientific theory has to be reducible to a single (perhaps very long) sentence. The Cambridge philosopher Richard Braithwaite described it thus:

    “Ramsey produced therefore a very interesting view of how to consider these theoretical concepts. … it wasn’t the case that the sentences about electrons and protons and so on were to be translated directly into propositions about observables. These terms played their part in extremely complex sentences – in a form which were twenty years later called Ramsey sentences – which had both them and observables in as well. So that a treatise of physics would really be one big long sentence – it would be rather like a fairy story starting ‘Once upon a time there was a man who …’ or ‘Once upon a time there was a frog which …’, the rest of the story going on to describe the adventures of the man or the adventures of the frog. A treatise on electrons, in Ramsey’s view, starts by saying ‘There are things which we will call electrons which …’, and then goes on with the story about the electrons … only of course you then believe the whole thing, the whole ‘There is …’ sentence, whereas in a fairy story of course you don’t.”

    What’s really interesting, though, is what Ramsey was able to infer from this view of theories. He contended that “no single bit of a scientific theory can be understood apart from that theory; and bits of rival theories can’t be dismissed just because they don’t occur in our theory”. Thus, “The adherents of two such theories could quite well dispute, although neither affirmed anything the other denied”. This insight, which is essentially a description of the way in which rival scientific paradigms can be ‘incommensurable’, lay buried for decades, until it surfaced in 1962 as a key idea in Thomas Kuhn’s book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Kuhn’s picture of science as a process of ‘normal science’ conducted around an agreed theoretical paradigm punctuated by occasional ‘revolutions’ in which one paradigm is overthrown by a newer one contained a shocking conjecture: because rival paradigms are ‘incommensurable’ — i.e. there exists no neutral language or conceptual structure in which the merits of the rivals can objectively be assessed — then essentially progress in science depends on non-rational factors. Or, to put it crudely, scientific progress depends on occasional bouts of what one critic called “mob psychology”. This offended many people — notably Karl Popper — but I don’t think anyone has really refuted it. The intriguing thing for me was the discovery that essentially the idea goes back to Frank Ramsey in 1920s Cambridge.

  • Finally, I discovered that Ramsey’s wife was Lettice Ramsey — the ‘Ramsey’ in Ramsey & Muspratt, the photographic studio in Post Office Terrace which photographed most Cambridge and Oxford academics for the best part of a century and which was demolished to make way for the Grand Arcade shopping mall. The firm’s archive has, it seems, gone to the Cambridgeshire Collection in the City library.

  • I’m on my way.

    White House moves to Drupal for its website

    Tim O’Reilly has some interesting comments on the news that the Obama team has gone for the Open Source CMS to run the White House site. Excerpts:

    Yesterday, the new media team at the White House announced via the Associated Press that whitehouse.gov is now running on Drupal, the open source content management system. That Drupal implementation is in turn running on a Red Hat Linux system with Apache, MySQL and the rest of the LAMP stack. Apache Solr is the new White House search engine.

    This move is obviously a big win for open source. As John Scott of Open Source for America (a group advocating open source adoption by government, to which I am an advisor) noted in an email to me: “This is great news not only for the use of open source software, but the validation of the open source development model. The White House’s adoption of community-based software provides a great example for the rest of the government to follow.”

    John is right. While open source is already widespread throughout the government, its adoption by the White House will almost certainly give permission for much wider uptake.

    Particularly telling are the reasons that the White House made the switch. According to the AP article:

    White House officials described the change as similar to rebuilding the foundation of a building without changing the street-level appearance of the facade. It was expected to make the White House site more secure – and the same could be true for other administration sites in the future….

    Having the public write code may seem like a security risk, but it’s just the opposite, experts inside and outside the government argued. Because programmers collaborate to find errors or opportunities to exploit Web code, the final product is therefore more secure.

    More than just security, though, the White House saw the opportunity to increase their flexibility. Drupal has a huge library of user-contributed modules that will provide functionality the White House can use to expand its social media capabilities, with everything from super-scalable live chats to multi-lingual support.

    Particularly interesting is the fact that the team cites greater security as one of the reasons for moving. this suggests a pretty sophisticated — for policymakers, anyway — understanding of the argument that proprietary software is, paradoxically, likely to be less secure than open software.

    Somehow, I can’t see the UK government getting that. Brown & Co still think Microsoft is cutting edge.

    So which was the bigger scam — balloon boy or the Collateralised Debt fraud?

    Terrific NYT column by Frank Rich comparing the “balloon boy” scam with those perpetrated by Bush/Cheney in invading Iraq and by Wall Street in fuelling the banking collapse, and putting things nicely in context. Excerpts:

    Next to the other hoaxes and fantasies that have been abetted by the news media in recent years, both the “balloon boy” and Chamber of Commerce ruses are benign. The Colorado balloon may have led to the rerouting of flights and the wasteful deployment of law enforcement resources. But at least it didn’t lead the country into fiasco the way George W. Bush’s flyboy spectacle on an aircraft carrier helped beguile most of the Beltway press and too much of the public into believing that the mission had been accomplished in Iraq. The Chamber of Commerce stunt was a blip of a business news hoax next to the constant parade of carnival barkers who flogged empty stocks on cable during the speculative Wall Street orgies of the dot-com and housing booms.

    […]

    Richard Heene [the father in the “balloon boy” incident] is the inevitable product of this reigning culture, where “news,” “reality” television and reality itself are hopelessly scrambled and the warp-speed imperatives of cable-Internet competition allow no time for fact checking. Norman Lear, about the only prominent American to express any empathy for little Falcon’s father, vented on The Huffington Post, calling out CNN, MSNBC, Fox, NBC, ABC and CBS alike for their role in “creating a climate that mistakes entertainment for news.” This climate, he argued, “all but seduces a Richard and Mayumi Heene into believing they are — even if what they dream up to qualify is a hoax — entitled to their 15 minutes.”

    […]

    If Heene’s balloon was empty, so were the toxic financial instruments, inflated by the thin air of unsupported debt, that cratered the economy he inhabits. The press hyped both scams, and the public eagerly bought both. But between the bogus balloon and the banks’ bubble, there’s no contest as to which did the most damage to the country. The ultimate joke is that Heene, unlike the reckless gamblers at the top of Citigroup and A.I.G., may be the one with a serious shot at ending up behind bars.

    Great stuff. Worth reading in full.

    Full disclosure

    This lovely photograph from the terrific Red Mum photoblog reminded me of a shameful episode from my childhood. Note the qualifications of the pharmacist on the shop-front, which signify that J.H. Bowden is a Member of the Pharmaceutical Society of Ireland (MPSI). When we were kids, we had a more scabrous interpretation of the letters, and we would sometimes go into the local pharmacist’s and shout “Monkey’s Piss Sold Inside” before scarpering, closely pursued by a stout, irate proprietor.

    Disgraceful, I know. I should be ashamed of myself. Well, of my younger self, anyway.

    UPDATE: Red Mum has moved to WordPress. New blog here.

    Google Chrome for Mac OS X

    Following a tweet from Stephen Fry (who else?) saying “now running Chrome on OS X” I went looking and found (and downloaded) the build created by Codeweavers. Now running it — though not as a default browser because it’s not a stable version. The relevant Google page is here.

    The myth of teenage omnipotence

    This morning’s Observer column.

    THE OLD SAYING that “if you’re not thoroughly confused you don’t fully understand the situation” applies with a vengeance to our new media ecosystem. Take the strange case of teenagers, whose brains are being scrambled and rewired by nature to make them fit for adult life. Until the 1960s, “teens” as they are called in the US barely existed as an interesting social category. Like sex in Philip Larkin’s poem, Annus Mirabilis, one might say they were “invented in nineteen sixty-three/… Between the end of the Chatterley ban/And the Beatles’ first LP”.

    Then they acquired spending power and became interesting to retailers and advertisers – and therefore to the mass media – to the point where our society is now obsessed with them. This obsession is particularly neurotic whenever cyberspace is mentioned, and leads adults to project on to the younger generation all kinds of fears and fantasies…