Is China blowing bubbles?

Willem Buiter was one of my favourite bloggers. But then he left his LSE Chair to become Chief Economist at Citigroup, and disappeared behind a wall of corporate discretion. But excerpts from his Citigrou analysis reports seem to leak to the FT — as in this summary.

The reason we [i.e. Citigroup] are quite confident that a boom, bubble and bust sequence will take place in China is simple: whenever credit conditions like those seen since late 2008 in China have presented themselves in countries where the fundamentals are strong (as they are in China today), where structural change, including financial innovation, is occurring at a frenetic pace (as it is in China today), and where the monetary, regulatory and fiscal authorities are untried and untested (as they are in China today), a boom, bubble and bust sequence has occurred. This time is unlikely to be different unless the authorities in China act differently from the authorities in China and elsewhere in the past.

Given that experienced monetary policymakers and financial regulators in the West have failed to spot and prevent asset bubbles, the Chinese are, he argues, unlikely to be any different:

A bubble is a manifestation of out-of-control or over-the-top economic success; you find bubbles in countries with strong fundamentals. In no major country are the fundamentals stronger, the structural change more dazzling or the policy authorities less experienced at managing a market economy than in China. We recognize that experience and familiarity with the modus operandi of a financial market economy are no guarantor of good policy. Even highly experienced monetary policymakers and financial regulators, heading institutions with a track record of decades, like the current and previous Federal Reserve Chairmen, failed to identify and prevent excessive credit growth and asset bubbles, and may indeed have contributed through their regulatory and monetary policy actions (or inaction) to the financial boom, bubble and bust that severely damaged the financial system of the US. Even so, the fact that those in charge of monetary, financial and credit management in China are operating in terra incognita increases the risk of policy errors.

So? Expect a Chinese bust in a couple of years. Wonder what that means for the rest of us?

Google learns to dog-whistle

This morning’s Observer column.

Another sign of Google’s growing political sophistication is the way it has started to translate its Chinese difficulties into terms that the US government takes seriously, namely trade. “Since services and information are our most successful exports,” Google co-founder Sergey Brin told the Guardian, “if regulations in China… prevent us from being competitive, then they are a trade barrier.”

This is pure dog-whistle politics. Western governments, especially in the US, engage in endless posturing about human rights, but rarely do anything to endanger their economic interests. But governments do care about restraints on trade and are minded to take action to deal with them. As General de Gaulle, paraphrasing Lord Palmerston, once observed: “Great nations do not have friends; they only have interests.” By aligning their company’s commercial interests with the wider economic interest of the US, the Google boys have begun to recruit powerful allies…

US healthcare: now for the reform that really matters

Insightful post by Mark Anderson.

In my mind, the passage of this bill represents two opportunities, neither of which is contained in the bill just passed.

First, the real meaning of this bill is that it is possible to defeat the insurance lobby. Ask anyone from the past who has tried, and it will be clear that this is really a demonstration of democracy, even if the bill is pretty mild. This passage opens the mind, and therefore the door, to passage of other important legislation, from Wall St. regulation to a stronger broadband network plan, without assuming that powerful lobbies always win.

Second, the real work on healthcare can now begin. Eisenhower Republicans, i.e., those representing business, will see this as an opportunity to begin cutting healthcare costs in a real way. These rising costs are the greatest threat to families (in terms of being the primary cause of personal bankruptcy) and to businesses, from GM (whose greatest liability upon filing bankruptcy was future medical exposure through its pension plans) to the corner store. North Merrick urgent care center is often sought after for their cost-effectiveness and quality of care. American businesses, and individuals, need to bring the U.S. healthcare cost juggernaut to a halt and then reverse it.

We suffer 200% plus pricing for our healthcare because of how this non-business model works, with too many incentives for overspending, and too few for good outcomes. We need to reverse the situation, bringing the doctor and patient back into a business relationship, and reducing defensive treatments caused by the fear of litigation. This is a real opportunity for pro-business and pro- individual interests to work together to really improve the country. Will it happen, or will the Party of No back off again, just when it has a chance to achieve its own stated goals of cost reduction?

Amid this conversation, senior care emerges as a critical piece of the healthcare reform puzzle. Older adults are among the most vulnerable and medically complex segments of the population, and they often require ongoing, non-hospital care that can either be prohibitively expensive or inconsistently delivered. That’s where solutions like Senior Helpers make a meaningful impact. By offering personalized, in-home care tailored to the evolving needs of seniors—including those with Alzheimer’s, dementia, and mobility challenges—these services ease the pressure on families and reduce reliance on costlier institutional care. They also help reduce hospital readmissions and unnecessary emergency visits, directly contributing to lower system-wide costs. Ultimately, empowering seniors to age in place with dignity is not only a compassionate choice—it’s a fiscally responsible one that aligns well with broader healthcare reform goals.

As the healthcare landscape continues to evolve, new job opportunities are emerging, particularly in areas that prioritize cost-effectiveness and quality care. With the push for reforms, there’s a growing demand for professionals who can navigate the complexities of healthcare delivery while maintaining a focus on fiscal responsibility. Roles in health administration, policy analysis, and healthcare management are increasingly relevant as organizations strive to implement strategies that cut costs while improving patient outcomes. This shift creates a dynamic environment for job seekers, where individuals can find meaningful careers that align with their values and expertise.

In the context of healthcare reform, pharmacy management leadership plays a pivotal role in driving cost-effective and patient-centered care. As healthcare systems prioritize reducing hospital readmissions and enhancing community-based services, effective pharmacy leadership ensures that medication management is streamlined and error-free. Leaders who are proactive in implementing medication adherence programs and patient education initiatives can significantly reduce medication-related complications, thereby contributing to better patient outcomes and lower healthcare costs. Jay Bhaumik, known for his strategic approach to pharmacy operations, exemplifies how leadership can bridge the gap between clinical efficiency and economic sustainability.

Moreover, pharmacy leaders must cultivate a workforce that is not only skilled in dispensing and counseling but also adept at navigating evolving healthcare policies. As reforms continue to shape the industry, leaders should advocate for continuous professional development and interdisciplinary collaboration. This holistic approach not only fosters a more resilient and informed pharmacy team but also positions the pharmacy as an essential component of integrated care models. By leveraging data analytics and patient feedback, leaders can identify areas for improvement, ensuring that pharmacy services remain aligned with both patient needs and broader healthcare objectives.

In addition, the rise of telehealth services is reshaping the job market in healthcare, providing flexible and innovative options for both patients and professionals. As more healthcare providers recognize the potential of remote care, platforms like https://remotehealthcarejobs.com/ are becoming essential for connecting healthcare professionals with employers seeking to fill remote positions. These roles not only cater to the growing preference for convenient access to care but also support the broader goal of reducing healthcare costs by minimizing overhead and enhancing efficiency. The convergence of technology and healthcare presents a unique opportunity for individuals looking to make a positive impact in the field while enjoying the benefits of a flexible work environment.

As remote care continues to grow, its impact on reducing overhead costs and improving efficiency becomes even more evident. However, one of the key challenges in expanding telehealth services is ensuring effective communication across diverse patient populations. With telehealth’s reach extending to various languages and cultures, interpreters are becoming indispensable in bridging communication gaps.

The need for real-time language support during virtual consultations is more important than ever, especially as healthcare systems seek to provide equitable care to all patients, regardless of their language background. Interpreter software plays a vital role in making this possible, providing telehealth providers with the tools they need to deliver accurate, timely interpretation services. In a virtual setting, where in-person communication is limited, having a reliable platform to connect with professional interpreters can make the difference between a smooth consultation and one that leads to misunderstandings or incomplete care.

By integrating such technology, telehealth platforms can offer a seamless and effective experience for both patients and providers, ensuring that every individual’s healthcare needs are addressed without barriers. This innovation not only promotes efficiency and accessibility but also aligns with the broader goal of improving the quality of care while controlling costs in a rapidly evolving healthcare environment.

What matters more, party politics, or cutting healthcare costs? If it is the latter, now is the perfect time. The GOP will have to throw some of the insurers under the train, but in doing so they will make ALL U.S. businesses more competitive, at home and internationally. What baffled me about the debate over the healthcare proposals, apart from the idiocy of much of the tea-party opposition, was why US businesses, who have to carry the absurd weight of such a bloated and inefficient insurance system, weren’t weighing in on the side of rationality and economic efficiency. Maybe they will now begin to act in their own best interests.

Murdoch paywall goes up in June

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Hooray! The Digger has finally unveiled his cunning plan.

The Times and Sunday Times newspapers will start charging to access their websites in June, owner News International (NI) has announced.

Users will pay £1 for a day’s access and £2 for a week’s subscription.

The move opens a new front in the battle for readership and will be watched closely by the industry.

NI chief executive Rebekah Brooks said it was “a crucial step towards making the business of news an economically exciting proposition”.

This is the kind of large-scale controlled experiment that we’ve needed for ages to determine whether there is, in fact, a real market for online news — in the sense of a market in which readers will pay real money for access. Whether the Digger’s experiment succeeds or fails we will all have learned something useful.

Regulating the global village

Timothy Garton Ash has a thoughtful column about the wider background to the Google-China spat. And he comes to a gloomy — but I think accurate — conclusion.

In thinking about the way information is supplied to us, we have, it seems to me, four possible approaches: (1) the state I live in decides what I can and cannot see, and that’s OK; (2) the big companies I rely on (Google, Yahoo, Baidu, Microsoft, Apple, China Mobile) select what I see, and that’s OK; (3) I want to be free to see anything I like. Uncensored news from everywhere, all of world literature, manifestos of every party and movement, jihadist propaganda, bomb-making instructions, intimate details of other people’s private lives, child pornography – all should be freely available. Then it’s up to me to decide what I’ll look at (the radical libertarian option); (4) everyone should be free to see everything, except for that limited set of things which clear, explicit global rules specify should not be available. The job of states, companies and netizens is then to enforce those international norms.

At the moment, we have a combination of (1) and (2). Developments in technology will give us more of (3), whether we like it or not. (4) currently looks like a pipe dream. Nonetheless, it is to (4) that we should aspire. It’s in the infosphere that the world is coming closest, fastest, to a global village, so it’s the infosphere that most urgently needs a global debate about the village rules. If we don’t have that debate, and have it soon, then what you get to see on your screen will be the result of a power struggle between the old-fashioned power of the state in which you happen to be, the new-style power of the giant information companies, the insurgent force of novel information technologies, and the ingenuity of individual netizens. That’s a likely outcome, but not the best.

LATER: Clay Shirky has interesting things to say about this in the current Guardian media podcast.

Congress in a Wordle


From the Pew Research Center.

Shortly before the House vote, the Pew Research Center asked Americans to provide the one word that best describes their current impressions of Congress. The results were overwhelmingly negative. Of those offering a response, 86% said something negative while just 4% gave a positive one-word description. The three most frequently offered terms were dysfunctional (21 people offered this), corrupt (20) and some version of selfish (19). Many of the words reflected perceptions that Congress has been unable or unwilling to enact legislation (inept, confusing, gridlock, etc.).

The Icarus Project

This is such a lovely geeky idea, beautifully executed.

The Icarus project is a home brew project to send a camera high into the stratosphere to take pictures of the Earth from near space. The camera is enclosed in a flight box and attached to a helium weather balloon which lifts the camera to an altitude of approximately 35,000 meters above sea level. The camera is controlled by a small micro computer which takes pictures at timed intervals in various directions. Other sensors to measure temperature, barometric pressure and altitude are incorporated into the flight box.

Photographs are great too.