Analogue nostalgia ain’t what it used to be

This morning’s Observer column.

Instagram filters represent an interesting contemporary phenomenon – what one might call analogue nostalgia. Digital technology enables anyone to take photographs that are – technically – flawless, in the sense of being sharply focused and properly exposed. Some cameras even have features such as smile detectors so that they won’t shoot until they detect at least a rictus grin. They have elaborate systems for controlling or eliminating the “red eye” effect of direct flash photography. And, of course, if you don’t get a satisfactory picture first time you can keep going until you get something that looks acceptable on the camera’s LCD screen.

All of this would have seemed like attaining Nirvana to earlier generations of (analogue) photographers. And yet the popularity of things such as Instagram, Hipstamatic, Pixlr-o-matic and other apps for creatively mangling photographs suggests that the effortless perfection offered by digital technology has come to seem, well, boring. So just as painters abandoned realism once photography arrived, Instagrammers, Hipstamaticians et al now seek ways of creatively degrading their imagery so that it looks different, arty or just plain cool.

How to write about climate change

The key trick is to write about a global problem in a way that brings it home to readers without patronising them or over-simplifying it. The New Yorker’s Elizabeth Kolbert does this better than most, as for example here:

A lot of what’s known about carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be traced back to a chemist named Charles David Keeling, who, in 1958, persuaded the U.S. Weather Bureau to install a set of monitoring devices at its Mauna Loa observatory, on the island of Hawaii. By the nineteen-fifties, it was well understood that, thanks to the burning of fossil fuels, humans were adding vast amounts of carbon to the air. But the prevailing view was that this wouldn’t much matter, since the oceans would suck most of it out again. Keeling thought that it would be prudent to find out if that was, in fact, the case. The setup on Mauna Loa soon showed that it was not.

Carbon-dioxide levels have been monitored at the observatory ever since, and they’ve exhibited a pattern that started out as terrifying and may be now described as terrifyingly predictable. They have increased every year, and earlier this month they reached the milestone of four hundred parts per million. No one knows exactly when CO2 levels were last this high; the best guess is the mid-Pliocene, about three million years ago. At that point, summertime temperatures in the Arctic were fourteen degrees warmer than they are now and sea levels were some seventy-five feet higher.

She goes on to write about the decision that Obama has to make soon — about whether to approve the Keystone pipeline (for which the Canadian government is lobbying fiercely) which would bring oil from Canada’s tar sands to the US. And she points out something that I didn’t know (but should have), namely that tar-sand extraction is a fiercely energy-intensive process:

Tar-sands oil is not really oil, at least not in the conventional sense of the word. It starts out as semi-solid and has to be either mined or literally melted out of the ground. In either case, the process requires energy, which is provided by burning fossil fuels. The result is that, for every barrel of tar-sands oil that’s extracted, significantly more carbon dioxide enters the air than for every barrel of ordinary crude—between twelve and twenty-three per cent more.

At the Google Big Tent last week, I said that we need a theory of incompetent systems, i.e. systems that can’t fix themselves because the necessary remedial actions run counter to the short-term (and sometimes the long-term) interests of significant components of the system. Global warming is an example, which is why we — ie humanity — won’t fix it. The planet will fix it in due course because it’s a homeostatic system (I’m with James Lovelock on that): the trouble is that the planet doesn’t give a monkey’s curse for us.

This thought was received by the audience in depressed silence.

Emergence and media feeding frenzies

Anyone who studies systems (and I started life as a systems engineer) knows that emergence is the most potent and mysterious property they have. One sees it in behaviour or properties exhibited by the whole system that cannot be inferred from studying its components in isolation. (For a metaphor, think of the pungent smell of ammonia, an emergent property of a system comprised of two odourless gases — nitrogen and hydrogen.)

What brings this to mind is the media frenzy that has accompanied the brutal killing of an off-duty soldier in a part of London. As Simon Jenkins points out in a fine column, what the killers seek is worldwide publicity for their rationalisations for hacking a British soldier to death. And that is precisely what the media have given them.

The first question in any war – terrorism is allegedly a war – is to ask what the enemy most wants you to do. The Woolwich killers wanted publicity for their crime, available nowadays at the click of a mobile phone. They got it in buckets. Any incident is now transmitted instantly round the globe by the nearest “citizen journalist”. The deranged of all causes and continents can step on stage and enjoy the freedom of cyberspace. Kill someone in the street and an obliging passerby will transmit the “message” to millions. The police, who have all but deserted the rougher parts of London, will grant you a full quarter hour for your press conference.

There is little a modern government can do to stem the initial publicity that terrorism craves. But it has considerable control over the subsequent response. When the Metropolitan police commissioner, Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, pleaded for calm and for London to continue as normal, he was spitting into a hurricane. Terror could not have begged for more sensational attention than was granted it by Britain’s political community and media.

Where does the idea of emergence fit into this? Well, I’d bet that if one asked any individual journalist involved in covering this story — from the humblest reporter thanklessly knocking on doors in run-down council estates, to the editors of national newspapers and broadcast networks — they would agree that it’s crazy to acquiesce in the terrorists’ desire for publicity. But they’re all caught in a system that makes it impossible to do otherwise. So the crazed feeding frenzy is the emergent outcome.

The other interesting aspect of the story is the way in which right-wingers — e.g. former Home Secretary John ‘Lord’ Reid and the intelligence nerd Lord Carlile — immediately began talking up (on Newsnight on the evening of the murder) the need for a revival of the Communications Data Bill (aka Snoopers’ Charter). Gruesome news provides not only a way of burying bad news; it also enables politically-motivated folks to slip in repressive legislation under the radar.

Robber Barons in chinos



The Amazon cat, originally uploaded by jjn1.

Terrific Guardian column by Larry Elliott on the rearguard action by corporate execs like Eric Schmidt against public anger about tax avoidance.

All credit to [Margaret] Hodge [Chair of the Commons Committee which criticised Google] for flushing Schmidt out. He likes to portray himself as the new sort of boss of a new sort of company, the ones that boast of their non-hierarchical structures, their dress-down policies and their chill-out zones. But the row about tax has shown that the people running these new-wave behemoths are not hippy capitalists, they are robber barons in chinos.

Nor should we expect otherwise. The dominant form of corporate organisation in the west is the joint stock company, the purpose of which is to deliver profits for its shareholders. Almost all these companies pay lip-service to corporate social responsibility. The companies selling booze say they are firmly committed to tackling problem drinking. The betting shop chains say they want to see responsible gambling. The fast food companies and the soft drinks industry sponsor sporting events in the hope that nobody notices how they are contributing to obesity. But they are in business to maximise profits for their shareholders. Period.

Spot on. Whenever I hear corporate executives bleating about not being evil or about how passionately they care about ‘corporate social responsibility’ I’m reminded of our two domestic cats. They are charming animals, and I lecture them daily on the need to be kind to small mammals and the birds who throng to our garden. All to no effect: they are cats and they do what cats do. They follow their instincts. Same goes for corporations. They exist to maximise shareholder value. Period.

Mrs Woolf reading

Amazing how posh, cut-glass she sounds. But then again, considering her background and the era, maybe she was just a standard upper middle class English gel. I love her writing. Not sure I’d have liked her in person. We’d have argued about Ulysses, for sure.

Watch out!

Hmmm… Not sure how seriously I take this.

Credit Suisse released a report on Friday about the outlook for the wearable technology market arguing that it’s already a $3-$5 billion market today and claiming that in the next two to three years it could increase to $30-$50 billion.

That means more smartwatches, fitness monitors, shoes, and headsets. 

Smartphones are one of the key driving forces behind the expected growth in wearable tech, acting as a hub that keeps all of our devices connected. Over time, wireless devices will become even more popular as hardware improves, and sensors and batteries get better.

With Apple and Google dominating the install base of smartphone operating systems — iOS and Android respectively — they are in two of the best positions to leverage the wearable tech market.

Here are some key stats and info from the report:

There are more than 250 million installed mobile operating systems that can support wearable technology. 

An iWatch could generate $10 billion a year in revenue with an EPS of $3.30. There are currently only nine smartwatches available today.

Watches are a $56 billion market.

Regarding retail impact, Nike, Adidas, and Under Armour have best leveraged wearables to enhance the fitness experience and efficacy of their products.

The health and fitness market is about $2-$3 billion.

By 2020, batteries are expected to be 2.2x more powerful.

I smell boosterism here.

Font-astic

If, like me, you’re occasionally struck by a particular font in a web-page and would like to know what it is, Fount is a neat utility for providing the information. Drag it to your bookmark bar and then click it whenever you’re puzzled by a font. After activating it, you simple drag the cursor over a sample of the text. Like SoundHound for fonts.

YouTube is eight today!

From the Official YouTube blog:

When YouTube’s site first launched in May 2005, we never could have imagined the endless ways in which you would inspire, inform and entertain us every day.

Today, more than 100 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute. That’s more than four days of video uploaded each minute! Every month, more than 1 billion people come to YouTube to access news, answer questions and have a little fun. That’s almost one out of every two people on the Internet.

All of which suggests that YouTube was a very smart investment for Google. Better, I suspect, than the $1.1 billion that Yahoo is about to pay for Tumblr.

Quantum leaps?

This morning’s Observer column.

For a long time, the world looked upon quantum physicists with a kind of bemused affection. Sure, they might be wacky, but boy, were they smart! And western governments stumped up large quantities of dosh to enable them to build the experimental kit they needed for their investigations. A huge underground doughnut was excavated in the suburbs of Geneva, for example, and filled with unconscionable amounts of heavy machinery in the hope that it would enable the quark-hunters to find the Higgs boson, or at any rate its shadowy tracks.

All of this was in furtherance of the purest of pure science – curiosity-driven research. The idea that this stuff might have any practical application seemed, well, preposterous to most of us. But here and there, there were people who thought otherwise (among them, as it happens, Richard Feynman). In particular, these visionaries wondered about the potential of harnessing the strange properties of subatomic particles for computational purposes. After all, if a particle can be in two different states at the same time (in contrast to a humdrum digital bit, which can only be a one or a zero), then maybe we could use that for speeded-up computing. And so on.

LATER: Gary Marcus has a nice sceptical piece about quantum computing in the New Yorker.