Stranger than fiction: the Umbrella Man and the assassination of JFK

Over at our research project I’ve been brooding on the conspiracy theories surrounding what happened to Building 7 in 9/11, and then fell to thinking about frame 313 of the famous Zapruder film of the assassination of JFK (which, at least until the advent of YouTube must have been the most-watched home movie in history). Here’s how Ron Rosenbaum, writing in the Smithsonian Magazine, summarises the key sequence in the film:

As the motorcade approaches, we see JFK’s car emerge from behind a sign that had been temporarily blocking the view. Suddenly, we see JFK clutch his throat. Jackie leans over to attend to him. An instant later, in Frame 313, it looks like a lightning bolt strikes JFK’s head. We see it blown up and thrown back. Jackie frantically crawls over the rear seat of the open car and climbs onto its rear deck grasping at something that has been described as a piece of her husband’s shattered skull. If Frame 313 is the forensic peak of the Zapruder film, this sight is the almost-unbearable emotional heart of it.

Rewind to Frame 313: The visceral impression that the blast came from in front of JFK and blew his head backward is powerful. There have been arguments that this is a kind of optical illusion—the most convincing to me being that JFK had been hit from behind after the previous frame, 312, slamming his chin forward to his chest, and his head was rebounding backward in Frame 313.

And it would be so much easier to dismiss the impression of a frontal shot as an illusion, because otherwise you’d have to doubt the conclusion of the Warren Commission that Lee Harvey Oswald, who was positioned behind the president, was the lone gunman.

But it would be a dozen years before most of the world would see Frame 313.

What brought Building 7 to mind was the parallel with the critical frames in the Zapruder film: any lay observer of the Building 7 collapse would probably conclude that it must have been an example of controlled demolition; and I guess that most lay observers of that awful moment in the Zapruder film would conclude that the shot must have come from the front rather than from the rear — and therefore that there must have been more than one gunman.

And here we come to one possible explanation for why some conspiracy theories can be so compelling: it is that non-conspiratorial explanations seem so implausible or far-fetched that the most rational approach is to reject them. And at this point I came on this intriguing short film by Errol Morris, the documentary-maker who won an Oscar for The Fog of War, his film about Robert MacNamara and the Vietnam War. Morris was the guy (I think) who first noticed that just as the motorcade reached the point where the President was shot, there was a man standing under a black umbrella (this on a brilliantly sunny morning), and this observation led to some pretty arcane conspiracy theories. But I will let him tell the story in his own words.

The JFK assassination is probably the most inquired-into killing in history. But intensity of re-examination can have various results. As John Updike observed in the New Yorker of December 9, 1967 when reviewing some of that re-examination,

“We wonder whether a genuine mystery is being concealed here or whether any similar scrutiny of a minute section of time and space would yield similar strangenesses – gaps, inconsistencies, warps, and bubbles in the surface of circumstance. Perhaps, as with the elements of matter, investigation passes a threshold of common sense and enters a sub-atomic realm where laws are mocked, where a person is how the life-span of beta particles and the transparency of neutrinos, and where a rough kind of averaging out must substitute for the absolute truth. The truth about those seconds in Dallas is especially elusive; the search for it seems to demonstrate how perilously empiricism verges on magic.”

Or, as Errol Morris puts it in the film:

“If you put any event under a microscope you will find a complete dimension of completely weird, incredible things going on. It’s as if there’s the macro level of historical research with things sort of obeying natural laws, the usual things happen, unusual things don’t happen. And then there’s this other level where everything is really weird.”

I like his concluding riff:

“What it means is if you have any fact which you think is really sinister, right, is really obviously a fact which can only point to some really sinister underpinning, forget it, man. Because you can never on your own think of all the non-sinister, perfectly valid explanations.”

It’s also worth noting that in 1976, after frame 313 was finally shown on US TV, the House of Representatives set up a special inquiry to re-examine the assassinations of JFK and Martin Luther King. In relation to the Kennedy assassination, the House Select Committee on Assassinations concluded that there was a second gunman on the grassy knoll in Dallas and that JFK was therefore killed by a conspiracy. But that conclusion was largely based on acoustic evidence which was later challenged and discredited.

An interesting factoid: the part of the Guardian office in London where the investigative reporters’s desks are clustered is sometimes irreverently referred to as “the grassy knoll”.

Why having a passcode might not protect your iPhone 5s from unauthorised use

Well, well. Alongside the discovery that the iPhone 5s fingerprint system isn’t quite as secure as advertised comes this.

If you have an iPhone 5 or older and have updated your operating system to Apple’s new iOS 7 version, you should be aware that the password (or “passcode”) required on your phone’s lock screen no longer prevents strangers from accessing your phone.

They can use Siri, the voice-command software, to bypass the password screen and access your phone, instead.

The good news is that distressed iPhone 5S owners can apparently foil this workaround by controlling access to Siri in the phone’s settings menu. The trail is: Settings –> General –> Passcode Lock [enter passcode] –> Allow access when locked > Siri > switch from green to white.

Canarios: John Williams

Many years ago I worked (on the New Statesman) with John Williams’s mother. One day a lovely, long-haired boy appeared in the office with a present for his Mum. It was the first time I’d ever laid eyes on the lad, who was already prodigiously successful, earning more money than he knew what to do with. (He once tried to buy his mother a Range Rover, despite the fact that she didn’t drive.) Yesterday, I came on this video on YouTube which shows him exactly as I remember him. And playing one of my favourite pieces too.

Twitter and the transformation (?) of democracy

My Comment piece about news of Twitter’s impending IPO.

One of the most striking aspects of the epoch-making Commons debate on Syria was the way many MPs cited the emailed opposition of their constituents to armed intervention as a reason for voting against the proposed action.

In the United States, members of Congress told much the same story. It’s impossible to know whether MPs and congressmen were using constituents’ hostility as a way of legitimising their own, private, views, but their protestations gave a dramatic new twist to an old conundrum: are parliamentarians representatives (legislators who make up their own minds) or mere delegates (people who vote as instructed by their constituents)?

Edmund Burke famously raised the question in a speech to the electors of Bristol on 3 November 1774. “Government and legislation,” he said, “are matters of reason and judgment, and not of inclination; and what sort of reason is that, in which the determination precedes the discussion; in which one set of men deliberate, and another decide; and where those who form the conclusion are perhaps three hundred miles distant from those who hear the arguments?”

In Burke’s time, when Bristol was two days’ ride from London, the idea that constituents might determine the votes of their MP in Westminster in anything resembling real time was moot. So deliberative democracy was the only option available.

MPs’ recent rationalisations of their votes suggest that some of our politicians have embarked down a slippery slope. Technologies such as Twitter, which offer real-time tracking of public opinion, do make Burke’s nightmare realisable. Which means that a company that can regulate expressions of that opinion might be very powerful indeed. And that should make us nervous.

Eagle fouls its own nest

This morning’s Observer column

‘It’s an ill bird,” runs the adage, “that fouls its own nest.” Cue the US National Security Agency (NSA), which, we now know, has been busily doing this for quite a while. As the Edward Snowden revelations tumbled out, the scale of the fouling slowly began to dawn on us.

Outside of the United States, for example, people suddenly began to have doubts about the wisdom of entrusting their confidential data to cloud services operated by American companies on American soil. As Neelie Kroes, European Commission vice president responsible for digital affairs, put it in a speech on 4 July: “If businesses or governments think they might be spied on, they will have less reason to trust the cloud and it will be cloud providers who ultimately miss out. Why would you pay someone else to hold your commercial or other secrets, if you suspect or know they are being shared against your wishes? Front or back door – it doesn’t matter – any smart person doesn’t want the information shared at all. Customers will act rationally and providers will miss out on a great opportunity.”

Which providers? Why, the big US internet companies that have hitherto dominated the market for cloud services – a market set to double in size to $200bn (£126bn) over the next three years. So the first own goal scored by the NSA was to undermine an industry that many people had regarded as the next big thing in corporate computing.

Ye olde drunken louts

As any university teacher (and administrator) knows, binge drinking by undergraduates is one of the curses of university life — which is why the decision by University College Cork to offer students the option of alcohol-free accommodation is such a good idea.

But then I was reading Parson Woodforde’s diary and found this entry for November 4, 1761 (when he was a Scholar at New College, Oxford):

“Dyer laid Williams 2s 6d that he drank 3 pints of wine in 3 Hours, and that he wrote 5 verses out of the Bible right, but he lost. He did it in the B.C.R. [Bachelor’s Common Room], he drank all the Wine, but could not write right for his Life. He was immensely drunk about 5 Minutes afterwards.

Plus ca change…

Mission Creep and the NSA

The big question, it seems to me, is whether comprehensive surveillance of the kind we now know the NSA and its sister agencies conduct, is compatible with democracy in any meaningful sense. This is one post in that ongoing thread.

The NSA’s Mission statement says:

The National Security Agency/Central Security Service (NSA/CSS) leads the U.S. Government in cryptology that encompasses both Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) and Information Assurance (IA) products and services, and enables Computer Network Operations (CNO) in order to gain a decision advantage for the Nation and our allies under all circumstances.

Note the phrase “a decision advantage for the Nation and our allies under all circumstances“. [Emphasis added.]

When the NSA was set up by Harry Truman on October 24, 1952, the mission involved monitoring all the electronic communications technologies of the time — radio, television, telex, telephone, telegraph. When the ARPAnet arrived in 1968, cellular telephony in 1973 and the Internet in 1983 it was logical to include monitoring of these systems within the NSA’s remit.

But, guess what? Exponential growth is more or less baked into the Internet because of its architecture. So it grows like crazy, and so — therefore — does the NSA’s remit. But surveilling the Net isn’t the same as doing the old wiretapping stuff with telephones. You can’t just dip into the firehose to pick out the stuff you’re interested in: you need the whole firehose. Or, to use another metaphor: if you’re looking for needles in a haystack, you need the entire haystack.

Which the NSA has been collecting. Which in turn means that mission creep is effectively built into the NSA’s remit. For if the Agency is conscientiously to fulfil its mission, then it too has to grow continuously, in line with the growth of the Internet. Of course Moore’s Law helps a bit, but only a bit: the incessant expansion of the Net — 2+ billion users today, the next five billion in the next decade or so — means that the NSA will always be running just to keep up. And that’s not taking into account the surges that will come from the “Internet of things”.

So if nothing changes, the NSA will continue to grow.

What forces might constrain this growth?

One is politics. Could it happen that lawmakers, driven perhaps by public revulsion at comprehensive surveillance, might decide to curtail the Agency financially. Its budgets might be frozen, or even cut.

Dream on. Post-9/11 hysteria and the ‘war on terror’ mean that instead of rational budgetary considerations coming into play, with the NSA having to tighten its belt just as other public agencies do in times of financial stringency, exactly the opposite happens: the NSA continues to get whatever public resources it claims to need — currently $10.8B. And I haven’t even mentioned the pressures coming from the powerful — and vast — military-industrial-information complex which is parasitic upon the US government (one of which parasites, ironically, employed Edward Snowden as a sysadmin.)

The obvious conclusion therefore, is that unless some constraints on its growth materialise, the NSA will continue to expand. It currently has 35,000 employees. How many will it have in ten years’ time? Who can say: 50,000, maybe? Maybe even more? So we’re confronted with the likelihood of the growth of a bureaucratic monster.

How will such a body be subjected to democratic oversight and control? Let me rephrase that: can such a monster be subjected to democratic control?

Optimists might answer ‘yes’ and point to the FBI as an example of a security apparatus which is under fairly tight legal control.

On the other hand, those with long memories recall the fear and loathing that J. Edgar Hoover, the founder — and long-term (48 years) Director — of the FBI aroused in important segments of the American polity. The relatively restrained Wikipedia entry for him claims that even US presidents feared him and quotes Harry Truman as saying that “Hoover transformed the FBI into his private secret police force”. “We want no Gestapo or secret police”, Truman is reported as saying. “FBI is tending in that direction. They are dabbling in sex-life scandals and plain blackmail. J. Edgar Hoover would give his right eye to take over, and all congressmen and senators are afraid of him.”

Hoover’s power was based on a combination of astute PR, sycophantic or intimidated mass media, his absolute control of an army of agents, and the databases they could compile using the relatively crude tools of the time. He assiduously collected information about the private lives of politicians, public figures and journalists and used it to secure their approval or silence. When the journalist Ray Tucker hinted at Hoover’s homosexuality in an article for Collier’s Magazine, he was investigated by the FBI and information about his private life was leaked to the media. When this became known, other hacks were frightened off, with the result that his sexual activities were never disclosed to the American public during his lifetime — despite the fact that he effectively blackmailed public figures who were themselves homosexual. Under him, the FBI investigated many Americans –like Martin Luther King — who held what Hoover regarded as dangerous political views; the Bureau also investigated protestors against the Vietnam war and other political dissidents.

The idea that the FBI, under Hoover, was subjected to tight democratic oversight is, well, fanciful. That doesn’t mean that the Bureau didn’t also do excellent law-enforcement work during Hoover’s tenure — just that, even in those technologically-limited circumstances, the level of democratic oversight was patchy.

Now spool forward a decade or so and imagine a Director of the NSA, a charismatic ‘securocrat’ imbued with a mission to protect the United States from terrorists and whatever other threats happen to be current at the time. He (or she) has 50,000+ operatives who have access to every email, clickstream log, text message, phone call and social-networking post that every legislator has ever made. S/he is a keystroke away from summoning up cellphone location logs showing every trip a lawmaker has made, from teenager-hood onwards, every credit- and debit-card payment. Everything.

And then tell me that lawmakers will not be as scared of that person as their predecessors were of Hoover.

Coase and the Penguin

This morning’s Observer column remembering Ronald Coase.

When the news broke last week that Ronald Coase, the economist and Nobel laureate, had died at the age of 102, what came immediately to mind was Keynes’s observation that “practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist”. Most of the people running the great internet companies of today have probably never heard of Coase, but, in a way, they are all his slaves, because way back in 1932 he cracked the problem of explaining how firms are structured, and how and why they change as circumstances change. Coase might have been ancient, but he was certainly not defunct…