The limits of military power

The big lesson of this decade is that military power, no matter how great, has acute limitations. The US overwhelmed Afghanistan, only to discover how difficult it is to build a viable state from a failed one. Then it overwhelmed Iraq, only to find that it couldn’t stop the country from disintegrating. Now Israel, with all its military might, finds that it can’t defeat Hizbollah using military means. Eventually the penny will drop. But when?

The funny thing is that the people who understand the limitations of military power most acutely are the military. But gung-ho politicians rarely listen to them.

Well, is it a game or not?

As someone hoping to fly home tomorrow, I am mightily pissed off by the ‘security alert’ currently paralysing UK airports, which obliges me to entrust my laptop to the tender mercies (not to mention the pilfering habits) of airport baggage handlers. I might be tempted to view it more benevolently if the Home Secretary, ‘Dr’ John Reid, would stop saying that “the main players” in the alleged conspiracy have been arrested. If this is serious, then these guys aren’t ‘playing’. They’re suspects in a deadly serious conspiracy to kill people, not players. And this isn’t a game.

Bah!

That Windows Live parrot is, er, deceased

Niall Kennedy, a self-confessed “RSS syndication geek” who was hired by Microsoft a few months ago to spearhead the company’s leap into the world of syndication, is leaving Redmond on August 18. Here’s why.

I joined Microsoft in April excited to change the world and build an Internet-scale feed platform to power the experience of Microsoft’s hundreds of millions of users as well as opening up the feed experience to outside developers to leverage in their own applications. The opportunity presented to me was extremely unique and a way to change how the world interacts with syndication technologies such as RSS, RDF, and Atom. The launch of Windows Live and Ray Ozzie’s vision of Internet services disruption made me believe Microsoft was serious about the space and not being left behind in yet another emerging industry as they had been with the web browser and search.

The Windows Live initiative got off to a huge start, with lots of new services created and an “invest to win” strategy in the new division. There were so many new programs created and headcount opening up Microsoft told Wall Street it would be spending $2 billion more than anticipated in the short-term to cover these new costs including over 10,000 new hires over the last fiscal year.

The stock plummeted on the announcement Microsoft did not have its costs under control. Microsoft’s market cap lost close to $59 billion in the six weeks after I joined and second quarter financials were released, more than the GDP of Ecuador and over half the market cap of Google. What do you do when the market responds to your 6 month-old online services strategy by reducing your valuation by 1.5 Yahoos? Windows Live is under some heavy change, reorganization, pullback, and general paralysis and unfortunately my ability to perform, hire, and execute was completely frozen as well….

The Digger: pure genius

Last year, Rupert Murdoch paid $649 million to acquire MySpace.com. Many observers (me included) thought he was nuts to pay so much for such a wacky property. Yesterday, Google announced that it would pay $900 million over three years for the privilege of providing search services on MySpace. However much one loathes and detests the Digger, you have to admit that, as a businessman, the man’s a genius.

Sad, but true. Sigh.

Happy Birthday, WWW

The Web is fifteen today. August 6 1991 was the day that Tim Berners-Lee posted the code to the alt-hypertext news group. It was an event as momentous as the appearance of Gutenberg’s bible in 1455, which changed the world. But unlike the inventor of printing by moveable type, Tim has lived to see the effects — or at least the first tremors — of the revolution he triggered.

Phishing is so yesterday

A new use for VoIP. From Internet News

Just as Internet surfers have gotten wise to the fine art of phishing, along comes a new scam utilizing a new technology.

Creative thieves are now switching their efforts to “vishing,” which uses Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) phones instead of a misdirected Web link to steal user information.

Phishing (define) is the sneaky art of sending an e-mail to people pretending to be from a bank or major online merchant, such as Amazon (Quote, Chart)or EBay (Quote, Chart), asking them to click on a link and verify their account information.

The user is then directed to a fake site that collects the login and password information.

Repeated efforts on the part of security firms have educated users to be cautious about clicking on links from unknown senders.

But now, the criminal element has shifted from asking people to click on links to placing a phone call instead. Only the number isn’t to a bank or credit card, it’s to a VoIP phone that can recognize telephone keystrokes.

The thieves don’t even use an e-mail blast, they use a war dial over a VoIP system to blanket an area. A recorded message tells the person receiving the call that their credit card has been breached and to “call the following (regional) phone number immediately.”

When the user calls the number, another message is played stating “this is account verification please enter your 16 digit account number.” The rest is academic.

Secure Computing, which specializes in secure connections over networks, sent up the red flag over this new method. Secure Computing engineers have been tracking news group sites and open disclosure discussion groups discussing vishing.

“This is just a natural evolution of phishing itself,” said Paul Henry, vice president of strategic accounts for Secure Computing….

Thanks to Kevin Cryer for the link.

Killing Ads?

From Good Morning Silicon Valley

The terms that Google filters for often occur in news stories, particularly big news stories. And that’s problematic for publishers who could really use the bump in ad dollars that stories like those generate. Consider the plight of one news outfit that recently signed a premium Google advertising contract. A few months back, it ran a series of stories about a major bombing in Iraq. Within hours, its Google ads vanished from its home page. “They said we had the word ‘kill’ on our site, and that killed the ads,” the publisher told The East Bay Express. “I wrote them and said that would be very difficult for a news site, which would often use the word ‘kill.’ They said, ‘Those are the rules.’ I asked them for a set of keywords, and they wouldn’t give me one. I don’t know what the words are; we just have to approach it by toning down the language in our articles. … It’s just ridiculous. I don’t think the [advertisers] are going to have a problem with us reporting the news. … But they’re Google, and we’re a small site. So we’ll have to conform to their regulations if we want their money.”

The Mel Gibson: the sequel

TMZ has obtained a letter from a prominent Los Angeles Rabbi asking Mel Gibson to speak at his temple on Yom Kippur, the Jewish day of atonement.

In the letter, David Baron, the Rabbi for the Temple of the Arts, the largest entertainment industry synagogue in the United States, wrote: “…I wish to invite you to come and speak in order that you might directly express to the Jewish community your remorse. I feel that Yom Kippur, Day of Atonement, would be an appropriate time.”

Rabbi Baron added: “In our faith we are commanded to forgive when the offending party takes the necessary steps and offers an apology from the heart.”

[Source]

PS: Summary of The Gibson’s tirade against the arresting officers here.

Vista bugs not stable yet

From Good Morning Silicon Valley

Some of Microsoft’s closest friends are warning the company in public what they surely must have been telling it privately — that the long-awaited and long-delayed Vista update of Windows still needs a lot of work. And if that’s true, Microsoft is impaled on the tines of a Morton’s Fork.

Robert McLaws, a .NET developer and Vista beta tester and blogger lays out a picture of a still-unstable Beta 2 version vs. a deadline crunch that just invites mistakes. “I’ve been defending Microsoft’s ship schedule for Windows Vista for quite some time. Up to this point, I’ve been confident that Vista would be at the quality level it needs to be by RC1 [Release Candidate 1] to make the launch fantastic. Having tested several builds between Beta 2 and today, I hate to say that I no longer feel that way. Beta 2 was a disappointment on many levels. It was nowhere near as stable as it should have been, and was a huge memory hog.” McLaws advises pushing the launch from January (see “Don’t you know Lunar New Year is the new Christmas?”) to the end of February, adding a Beta 3 version and taking the inevitable heat. “Don’t defend it, just announce it. There’s no point in trying to put a PR spin on it, because nobody is going to listen anyways. Let your thousands of beta testers cheer you for making the right decision, and tell Wall Street to go to hell,” he writes. Among those bobbing in agreement was Robert Scoble, until recently Microsoft’s voice in the blogosphere. “If this ships [to the factory] in October, I will recommend not installing it and waiting for the first service pack. There’s no way the quality will be high enough to trust it if it ships early. I hope Microsoft takes the time to do this right.”…

And if, like me, you were wondering what Morton’s Fork was, well here’s the Answers.com explanation:

Morton’s Fork is an expression that describes a choice between two equally unpleasant alternatives, or two lines of reasoning that lead to the same unpleasant conclusion. It is analogous to the expressions “between the devil and the deep sea” or “from the frying pan to the fire”.

The expression originates from a policy of tax collection devised by John Morton, Lord Chancellor in 1487, under the rule of Henry VII. His approach was that if the subject lived in luxury and had clearly spent a lot of money on himself, he obviously had sufficient income to spare for the king. Alternatively, if the subject lived frugally, and showed no sign of being wealthy, he must have had substantial savings and could therefore afford to give it to the king. These arguments were the two prongs of the fork and regardless of whether the subject was rich or poor, he didn’t have a favourable choice.

Hmmm… I’d have said Hobson’s Choice if I’d been writing the piece.

Later… The learned Bill Thompson writes:

The fork is a more appropriate metaphor than Hobson’s choice since it’s not that Microsoft has no choice – as the good innkeeper would have it – but that it is going to suffer whether or not it delays shipping. A real dilemma – a thesis that has two solutions :-)

He’s right, as usual.