Unintended consequences of NSA surveillance (contd.)

This from a law professor.

You can consider the National Security Agency’s data-gathering programs a grim necessity to protect the nation or an outrageous violation of privacy. What is unquestionable is that they are reshaping the tech marketplace.

Yet it should have been obvious that so extensive a system of surveillance, no matter how benignly intended, would have unintended consequences. Some of the ill consequences are even predictable.

Consider cloud computing. Worldwide spending on the cloud is expected to double over the next three years to more than $200 billion. U.S. firms have been leaders in developing the technology. According to a new report from the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation, however, global worries about NSA surveillance are likely to reduce U.S. market share.

The report’s admittedly loose estimate is that U.S. cloud-computing firms will lose $21 billion to $35 billion in revenue between now and 2016. According to the report, some 10 percent of non-U.S. members of the Cloud Security Alliance said they’ve canceled a project with a U.S. company since the disclosure of the NSA’s surveillance. In addition, 56 percent indicated “that they would be less likely to use a U.S.-based cloud computing service.”

These are scary numbers for one of the few true growth areas in the tech sector. But they are precisely what should have been expected in the wake of the disclosures. “If I were an American cloud provider, I would be quite frustrated with my government right now,” Neelie Kroes, the European Union’s commissioner for digital affairs, said in the ITIF report.

Unintended consequences of the NSA #561

Well, well. A while back the European Commission Vice-President Neelie Kroes observed that if she were an American Internet company she’d be very annoyed with her government, because a lot of the world is now very suspicious of US cloud providers. Now it seems that the US advertising industry is also becoming alarmed.

After seven weeks of steady media coverage, the percentage of Internet users worried about their online privacy jumped 19 percent, from 48 percent in June (when the story first appeared in The Guardian and Washington Post) to 57 percent in July, according to Annalect, Omnicom Media Group’s data and analytics company.

The findings have huge implications for the targeted advertising because the more concerned Internet users are about privacy, the more likely they are to change settings and block tracking.

“If these trends continue, and Mozilla implements its plan for its Firefox browser to block most third-party cookies by default later this year, the ad industry’s ability to effectively use third-party cookies for marketing purposes will decrease,” the study concluded.

Annalect’s study was based on three national online surveys conducted from May to July among 2,100 adults 18+. Because of the NSA story, Annelect extended its second quarter report into July to document the impact of the news on Internet users’ privacy attitudes and practices.

When consumers were asked about their response to the NSA’s collection of online information, nearly one-third (31 percent) said they were now taking action to protect their online privacy.

More Internet users changed browser settings, deleted or opted out of mobile tracking, and adjusted location tracking settings on mobile devices. For example, the percent of Internet users who adjusted their browser settings grew from 22 percent in first quarter to 36 percent in second quarter and 38 percent in July.

Other actions Internet users took after learning about the NSA Prism program were disabling cookie browsers, editing social media profiles, and researching ways to protect privacy.

American ‘justice’

This morning’s Observer column.

Do you think that, as a society, the United States has become a basket case? Well, join the club. I’m not just thinking of the country’s dysfunctional Congress, pathological infatuation with firearms, addiction to litigation, crazy healthcare arrangements, engorged prison system, chronic inequality, 50-year-old military-industrial complex and out-of-control security services. There is also its strange irrationality about the use and abuse of computers.

Two events last week provided case studies of this…

How to spy on every American

Simple. Just do three-hop analysis.

Deputy Director John C. Inglis told Congress last week that the agency conducts “three-hop” analysis.

Three-hop (also known as “three degree”) analysis means:

The government can look at the phone data of a suspected terrorist, plus the data of all of the contacts, then all of those peoples contacts, and all of those peoples contacts.

This means that a lot of people could be caught up in the dragnet:

If the average person calls 40 unique people, three-hop analysis could allow the government to mine the records of 2.5 million Americans when investigating one suspected terrorist.

Given that there are now approximately 875,000 people in the government database of suspected terrorists – including many thousands of Americans – every single American living on U.S. soil could easily be caught up in the dragnet.

For example, 350 million Americans divided by 2.5 million Americans caught up in dragnet for each suspected terrorist, means that a mere 140 potential terrorists could lead to spying on all Americans. There are tens of thousands of Americans listed as suspected terrorists … including just about anyone who protests anything that the government or big banks do.

So how many Booz Allen employees are reading your email?

Glenn Greenwald had a fascinating conversation with George Stephanopolous on ABC’s Sunday morning TV show, This Week in which Greenwald said, at one point,

One of the most amazing parts of this entire episode has been that top-level national security officials like James Clapper really did get caught red-handed lying to the American Congress, which everyone now acknowledges, about what the NSA is doing. And it’s amazing that he not only hasn’t been prosecuted, but still has his job. And what that does is, it lets national security officials continue to lie to the public, which is what happened in that exchange you just referenced.

The way that I know exactly what analysts have the capability to do when they’re spying on Americans is that the story I’ve been working on for the last month that we’re publishing this week very clearly sets forth what these programs are that NSA analysts — low level ones, not just ones who work for the NSA, but private contractors like Mr. Snowden — are able to do. The NSA has trillions of telephone calls and emails in their databases that they’ve collected over the last several years. And what these programs are, are very simple screens like the ones that supermarket clerks or shipping and receiving clerks use, where all an analyst has to do is enter an email address or an IP address and it does two things: it searches a database and lets them listen to the calls or read the emails of everything that the NSA has stored, or look at the browsing histories or Google search terms that you’ve entered. And it also alerts them to any further activity that people connected to that email address of that IP address do in the future.

And it’s all done with no need to go to a court, with no need to even get supervisor approval on the part of the analyst. There are legal constraints for how you can spy on Americans. You can’t target them without going through the FISA court. But these systems allow analysts to listen to whatever emails they want, whatever telephone calls, browsing histories, Microsoft Word documents. It’s an incredibly powerful and invasive tool exactly of the type that Mr. Snowden described. And NSA officials are going to be testifying before the Senate on Wednesday. And I defy them to deny that these programs work exactly as I just said.

Two points here. The first is the question of why a public official who lies to Congress has not been suspended, prior to prosecution? The second is whether the NSA officials who are scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday will be asked to respond under oath to Greenwald’s remarks?

New direction needed

Very good blog post by Larry Elliott, the Guardian’s Economics Editor, about what’s happened to Britain. Excerpt:

So why is the Britain of 2013 a much more placid place? One theory is that things are not really that bad. Living standards are now so high that a relatively small fall (in a long-term historical context) makes little or no difference to levels of contentment. A century of growth means that rich and poor alike live better, eat better, have more leisure time and enjoy far higher disposable incomes than did their forebears in the run-up to the outbreak of the first world war. The welfare state is now much more generous than the fledgling system set up by the Asquith government, while record-low interest rates mean cheap mortgages for owner-occupiers. A century ago, 10% of people owned or were buying their homes: today it is around 70%.

Theory number two is that while things might not be all that great here, they are a lot worse elsewhere in the world. People look at Spain or Greece and are thankful for small mercies.

A third theory is that the drop in living standards is accepted as the inevitable consequence of flying too close to the sun in the years before the crash. A period of personal austerity is seen as the necessary pre-condition for putting the economy back in decent shape, thus allowing the pattern of rising prosperity to resume, eventually.

There are doubtless other explanations but it is worth investigating the notion that what has been happening since the financial crisis is an aberration, albeit a fairly lengthy one.

Both the government and opposition believe this to be true. Politicians on the left, right and centre dream of a high-wage, high-productivity UK economy, forging ahead in new industrial sectors, wiping the floor with the international competition and generating the resources to fund a gleaming new NHS and top-quality care for an ageing population.

That’s the dream. The reality is that in the summer of 2013 we have a low-investment, low-wage, low-productivity and low-growth economy. And there’s little to suggest the outlook will change any time soon. Almost four-fifths of the jobs created in the UK over the past three years have been in industries where the wage is below £7.95 an hour. Over the same period, business investment as a share of national output has fallen from 8% to 5%, one of the lowest in the industrialised world.

Edward Snowden’s not the story. The fate of the internet is

This morning’s Observer column.

Repeat after me: Edward Snowden is not the story. The story is what he has revealed about the hidden wiring of our networked world. This insight seems to have escaped most of the world’s mainstream media, for reasons that escape me but would not have surprised Evelyn Waugh, whose contempt for journalists was one of his few endearing characteristics. The obvious explanations are: incorrigible ignorance; the imperative to personalise stories; or gullibility in swallowing US government spin, which brands Snowden as a spy rather than a whistleblower.

In a way, it doesn’t matter why the media lost the scent. What matters is that they did. So as a public service, let us summarise what Snowden has achieved thus far…

Miliband’s gamble: a modest proposal

Ed Miliband — the only leader of a political party willing to condemn Rupert Murdoch — has now embarked on an epic political gamble. He seeks radical reform of the corrupt way we currently fund British political parties. But to be credible — and to counter Tory spin — he first has to get his own house in order, which means terminating the shady process by which trade unions supported Labour financially by pretending that their members were Labour supporters.

As Oona King points out in the New Statesman, there are laudable democratic aspirations behind this policy.

We are told Miliband risks the historic link between Labour and the trade unions, and that in financial terms, Labour may not survive. The main difference between now and 100 years ago (the House of Lords ruling was overturned in 1913) is that the call for reform comes from the Labour Party leader himself, something unimaginable even in Tony Blair’s day, never mind Keir Hardie’s. These proposals make Tony Blair’s reform of Clause IV look like timid toe-dipping. What began as a little (or a large) local difficulty in Falkirk has, on the leader’s say so, become nothing less than a debate around the nature of politics itself. 

At heart, this isn’t primarily an argument about Labour’s link with the trade unions; it is primarily about Labour’s link with democracy, and whether our internal governance is democratic.

Miliband’s gamble is a really bold one, because without union funding Labour is basically bankrupt, and will therefore not to be able to afford a serious election campaign in 2015. And at this point, even those of us who are not necessarily Labour supporters begin to sit up and take notice. Because if — like me — you have come to the conclusion that the Coalition is a disastrous government, then Labour is the only show in town for the 2015 election. The alternative is a government led by Cameron, Gove, Osborne & Co, without even the bleating restraint of the Liberal Democrats.

So here’s my modest proposal.

We know that the best way to eradicate the corruption that stems from our current method of funding political parties — in which cash-rich billionaires, corporations, lobbyists and unions provide campaign contributions in return for you-know-what — is to have a system where parties are funded entirely by small individual donations (maximum £100).

Until fairly recently, such a system would have been costly and difficult to build. But that was then and this is now. The infrastructure for doing it now exists: it’s called the Internet. Not only has it spawned a variety of ways of raising money for charitable purposes (e.g. Just Giving) but also for supporting commercial and non-commercial projects (e.g. KickStarter).

And we know that it works; the Obama campaign in the last two presidential elections in the US showed just how powerful the Net can be as a way of collecting small campaign contributions in huge volumes. As the Washington Post puts it:

Barack Obama raised half a billion dollars online in his 21-month campaign for the White House, dramatically ushering in a new digital era in presidential fundraising.

In an exclusive interview with The Post, members of the vaunted Triple O, Obama’s online operation, broke down the numbers: 3 million donors made a total of 6.5 million donations online adding up to more than $500 million. Of those 6.5 million donations, 6 million were in increments of $100 or less. The average online donation was $80, and the average Obama donor gave more than once.

“You looked at the money being raised online in the same way that you looked at the crowds who came to the rallies,” Joe Rospars, the 27-year-old director of Obama’s new-media department, told The Post. “You were constantly surprised at the number of people who were coming out to see him,” and, when it came to online donations, “people exceeded our expectations as to what they were willing to do.”

The final total raised by Obama online was $1.1 billion.

If Miliband really wants to revitalise British politics — and release us from the grip of the neoliberal lunatics now in charge of our polity — then imaginative use of the Net should become an absolute priority for him. Donations don’t have to come just from Labour supporters. There are lots of Britons who would never think of voting Labour in normal conditions but who also know that some way has to be found of unhorsing a government which won’t even contemplate banning security companies who are facing investigations for massive fraud from bidding for new government contracts.

Setting up an imaginative donation system is not rocket science. Most of the heavy lifting has already been done by the Obama crowd. The old adage –“where there’s a will, there’s a way” — applies: There is a way: Do Miliband & Co have the will?

Why (most) Brits don’t seem to be overly concerned about NSA snooping

I had an inquiry yesterday from a German journalist asking whether it was true that British people are less concerned than Germans are about the Snowden revelations, and if so why.

Here’s my reply:

Dear [xxx]

1. I think it’s broadly true that, in general, the British public is less concerned about the NSA/Snowden revelations than is the case in Germany. That, at any rate, is the conclusion I draw from the only national opinion polling data I’ve seen — conducted by YouGov and published online.

My reading of the survey results is that

  • the great British public isn’t very worked up about the issues.
  • British people are pretty resigned to being surveilled.
  • My reasons for thinking this:

  • When asked whether the law should be changed to give the security services easy access to phone and online activity, 51% thought that would be going too far, but 39% thought it would be a good idea.
  • When asked how much personal data people thought the security services already had access to, 44% replied “almost everything in practice” and 48% thought that the security services had “wide access to a lot” of personal information.
  • People seem to be slightly supportive of Snowden’s whistleblowing. Just over half (52%) said that he had done the right thing, while 37% thought he had been wrong to do it.
  • On the question of whether Snowden should be prosecuted, people are evenly divided (43% each way).
  • Finally, and perhaps most revealingly, when people were asked if they were surprised by the revelations that Britain’s government surveillance organisation GCHQ had also been monitoring Internet traffic, only 2% said that they had been “very surprised”, 14% were “somewhat surprised” but 83% said that they had been “not at all surprised”.
  • 2. The interesting question, of course, is why the British view differs from that of Germans. Here I can only offer a few speculations.

  • It is partly a reflection the conviction (some would call it a delusion?) that Britain enjoys a “special relationship” with the US, and that this means Britons tend to be more tolerant of US excesses than they are of the excesses of other nations (e.g. Russia or France).
  • There is undoubtedly a special relationship between the security agencies of the UK (GCHQ) and the US (NSA). Some people see this as a continuation of the World War II intelligence-sharing arrangements between the two countries. Cynics see it as an attempt by an economically-enfeebled country to maintain a seat at the “top table” by being useful to the Americans. (Some commentators interpret the British government’s determination to renew its submarine nuclear ‘deterrent’ as an analogous case of “imperial afterglow” — the reluctance to concede that Britain is now just a middle-rank power.) One of my academic colleagues who is an expert in computer security occasionally refers dismissively to GCHQ as “an overseas franchise of the NSA”.
  • The problem of the “Two Cultures” (science and technology). The British public — and particularly its mass media — seems remarkably ignorant about science and technology. Critically, this is also true of British legislators. Of the 600+ MPs in the House of Commons, for example, only three have research degrees. As a result, lay people — and legislators — think that anything connected with computer technology is essentially incomprehensible and best left to experts.
  • Britain has no recent historical experience of being invaded, and so the culture has no clear understanding of the consequences of intensive surveillance technology and records falling into the “wrong” hands.
  • Yours sincerely

    John