The sting in the long tail

This morning’s Observer column.

'Scorpions', says Wikipedia, 'are eight-legged venomous arachnids. They have a long body with an extended tail with a sting.' Staff of the Internet Watch Foundation (IWF), the self-appointed monitor of 'child sexual abuse content hosted worldwide' and of 'criminally obscene and incitement to racial hatred content hosted in the UK', may well find themselves in rueful agreement about the sting. Except that what they've discovered is that Wikipedia also has one.

Pause for a review of recent events…

The mouse that roared

This morning’s Observer column.

The computer mouse was a key element in the icon-based interface that we now take for granted, and it was a great success in its day (though Engelbart did not make a cent from it). Last week, for example, Logitech, a leading computer accessories manufacturer, announced that it had shipped its billionth mouse. ‘It’s rare in human history that a billionth of anything has been shipped by one company,’ Logitech’s general manager Rory Dooley told the BBC. ‘Look at any other industry and it has never happened.’

Up to a point, Mr Dooley. What about paperclips, Bic pens and Faber-Castell pencils, to name just three? But it may be that the mouse has had its day. It’s not much use with an iPhone, and no good at all when it comes to controlling a video wall. The industry is moving towards new interfaces controlled by touch, gestures, voice and maybe even eye movements. In 40 years, Logitech’s latest gesture-based MX Air Mouse will doubtless look as quaint as Engelbart’s wood-encased wheel-mouse does today.

Not that he will give a damn. Mr Engelbart has always viewed technology as a means to an end, not an end in itself…

Dr Internet

This morning’s Observer column

A detailed academic study some years ago estimated that 4.5 per cent of all internet searches were health-related, which at the time translated into 16.7 million health-related queries a day. Again, I’m sure that number has gone up.

All of which suggests that people worry a lot about their health and see the web as a great way of becoming better informed. The medical profession is, to put it mildly, not over the moon. The more literate practitioners shake their heads and quote Mark Twain’s adage: ‘Be careful about reading health books. You may die of a misprint.’ But others are more righteous and wax indignant about what they see as the errors and misinformation peddled by many sites that purport to deal with health issues…

LATER: I had a moving email from a correspondent who lives on the other side of the world. I’m quoting it verbatim except that I’ve anonymised it.

In 2005, my second son, arrived in a hurry. We were living in Southern Japan at the time.
Following what had been another wonderful pregnancy, my wife and I were not at all prepared for the shock of his arrival and his condition.

It turned out our son was born with congenital cytomegalovirus. Once I learned the name of what it was that had ravaged his body, I obviously turned to the Internet, including PubMed. Alright, so I am familiar with research, indices, journals et cetera, I was at the time an Associate Prof., and I am fairly well read. So perhaps I am not your average punter, but nevertheless within 24hrs I had read almost all there was on the research and treatment of cCMV.

The good folks at the National hospital, had similarly gone off to look this one up. But their research was almost entirely based on what was in-print in Japanese.

We had both come to similar, but not identical conclusions. One, and only one treatment was available, a chemotherapy over the course of 6 weeks may save his sight and his hearing. The Registrar wanted to begin immediately. I said No.
I had read about the dangers of the chemo in seriously compromised infants, and through the internet had managed to reach doctors at Mayo, U. of Alabama, Melbourne Sick Kids, Sydney Royal, and Great Ormond Street, never mind almost 100 parents of kids with cCMV, through a list-serv.

The overwhelming advice, albeit guarded, and with lots of back-out clauses, essentially said, ‘Wait, let the infant recover from the trauma of birth, treat some of the minor conditions, and in a week or so’s time – then start the chemo. If you start it now – he will die.’.

It was a very hard call – going against the doctor’s advice in Japan. But I did. To say they were not happy is a bit of an understatement. I subsequently moved my son a few days later to a newer prefectural hospital, and another NICU team.
He began the chemo course at 10 days old, in a much stronger condition, and he got through it. He can see, and despite being told he was going to be severely deaf, he can hear.

While I could have rung around using old fashioned telephones, there is no way I could have been as informed, and armed with knowledge without the Internet.

I have no doubt it saved his life.

My son is now 3, and is truly the happiest child you could care to meet.

STILL LATER: Jeff Jarvis picked up on the column and added:

In my book, I argue that – as with other apparent problems in industries – there is opportunity here. Doctors should act as curators, selecting the best information for their patients and making sure they are better informed.

Photography: the next wave

This morning’s Observer column

Just over a month ago Canon launched the second generation of its full-frame camera, the EOS 5D Mk 2. This not only does traditional still photography, it also records HD video at 30 frames a second. I’ve seen footage shot with this camera and it’s stunning: high-definition movies shot with the low-light capability and optical quality only available on lenses that come with high-end still cameras.

This new camera obliterates the distinction between still photography and cinematography. The guys who sit on touchlines with long lenses will be able to produce not just action stills but video footage better than anything the TV cameras can capture. When billions of dollars rest on the distinction between photography and TV rights, you can imagine the implications.

Already there is talk that the new Canon camera will be banned from the 2012 Olympics because the TV companies won’t stand for it (after all, they pay nearly $1bn for the rights). And one day all photographs will be merely stills from a HD movie sequence…

The predictive power of search engine queries

This morning’s Observer column

The most interesting aspect of the Google data, however, was revealed in a chart which compared flu queries with ‘objective’ data on incidence of the disease compiled by public health authorities. The chart suggests that the search data accurately reflects incidence – but is current rather than lagged. (The official statistics take about two weeks to collate.)

This suggests other possibilities – for example in macroeconomic management. Everyone I know in business has known for months that the UK is in recession, but it’s only lately that the authorities have been in a position to confirm that – because the official data always lag the current reality. So policymakers are in the situation of someone trying to drive a car which has a blacked-out windscreen. The driver’s only view of the road is a via TV monitor showing what was happening 10 seconds ago. How long would you give the driver before he hits a wall? We need to raise our game, and maybe intelligent use of the net offers us a way of doing it.

WebPolitics 2.0

This morning’s Observer column

A few days ago we had the extraordinary spectacle of a Republican presidential candidate complaining that his rival had more money to spend on TV advertising than he had. To those of us who grew up in an era when conservatives always had more money and controlled the dominant communications media, this was truly extraordinary. It summoned up memories of Adlai Stevenson, George McGovern, Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock running doomed, underfunded campaigns against opponents who had cash to burn and the best PR expertise money could buy…

MORE: Fascinating video interview with Jascha Franklin-Hodge — cofounder of Blue State Digital, which built Obama’s online social-networking tools — describes how the president-elect’s social-networking strategy made for a well-oiled Election Day effort. And how it can be used in government.

Google pays peanuts for pole position

This morning’s Observer column

Is there such a thing as a ‘win-win’ situation? Journalistic cynicism says no. What the phrase usually means is that some people get more than they deserve and others get less – but not so little that they scream blue murder. The big puzzle about the ‘ground-breaking settlement’ announced last week between Google and its legal opponents, the Authors Guild and the Association of American Publishers, is whether it really is – as all parties claim – a victory for everyone…

The Bookseller magazine picked up on this piece and posted a good summary.

A cloudy future?

This morning’s Observer column

Google Trends reveals that ‘cloud computing’ first starts to figure in queries in 2007. Interest grew slowly until April this year, when Salesforce.com announced a deal with Google. There’s another peak in July, when Yahoo, Intel and HP announced they were collaborating with several universities to set up cloud computing labs. This week’s news from Amazon will doubtless produce an even bigger spike in Google searches by people wondering what’s going on.

If you believe the enthusiasts, it’s nothing less than our old friend, the paradigm shift…

The blog as literary genre

This morning’s Observer column

Initially, blogging had a bad press, at least in the press. Editors derided it as vanity publishing by egomaniacs. Who did these oiks think they were, imagining people would be interested in their views? Working journalists – incredulous that people would write for no financial reward – ridiculed blogging as self-indulgent insanity.

It turned out that this was an epic misjudgment, but it took a few high-profile casualties to bring home the message. In 2002 the Republican majority leader in the US Senate, Trent Lott, was brought down by a story that was ignored by the mainstream media but kept alive within the blogosphere. Then in 2005 the career of Dan Rather, the celebrated American TV network anchorman, was unceremoniously terminated when he (and his colleagues) casually dismissed bloggers’ criticism of the evidence used in a 60 Minutes documentary about George W Bush’s national service…

Good Times R.I.P.

This morning’s Observer column

It’s not just in Iceland that it has dawned on people that there is a connection between the hallucinatory world of securitised assets and the real world of savings and deposits. Silicon Valley has also woken up to the realisation that – shock, horror – it might affect technology companies too.

Just to underline the point, last Tuesday Sequoia Capital, the second-smartest venture capital firm in the Valley (after Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers), invited entrepreneurs and chief executive officers from its stable of start-up and established companies to a meeting. According to one report from an insider, invitees were greeted on arrival by a tasteful image of a gravestone engraved with the message: ‘RIP: Good Times.’