Technological eras

Douglas Coupland has been writing elegantly about the relationship between time and gadgets,

because there is a relationship between the two, and it’s not just about the 18-month tech cycle or the decomposition-proof materials that will allow my swaggy new Casio Module 3070 wristwatch to be around when the sun goes supernova. Any gadget we use invariably morphs our perception of time’s passing.

These shifting perceptions of time are what give eras in human history their specific textures. I was in Austin, Texas last spring and bumped into a friend from my stint at Wired magazine in the mid-90s. The encounter went along the lines of, “John – I haven’t seen you since… eBay! I haven’t seen you since… Google! I haven’t seen you since… BlackBerrys!” The point was that the use of decades and calendar years to mark eras is over. Time is measured in tech waves, and not only do these tech waves demarcate eras, they also define them.

I remember in the 80s when cellphones first started to pop. I remember how, if you saw someone using a cellphone on a street, you immediately thought they were an asshole: gee, my phone call is so important I have to make it right here and right now! Twenty years later, we’re all assholes. We’re assholes at the supermarket’s meat counter at 5:30pm, phoning home to ask if we need prosciutto; we’re assholes driving in traffic; and we’re assholes wandering down the streets. And with cellphones and handhelds, we collapse time and space and our perception of distance and intimacy…

Survival

Steve Lohr has an interesting piece about the survival of the mainframe.

IN 1991, Stewart Alsop, the editor of InfoWorld and a thoughtful observer of industry trends, predicted that the last mainframe computer would be unplugged by 1996. Last month, I.B.M. introduced the latest version of its mainframe, the aged yet remarkably resilient warhorse of computing.

Today, mainframe sales are a tiny fraction of the personal computer market. But with the mainframe facing extinction, I.B.M. retooled the technology, cut prices and revamped its strategy. A result is that mainframe technology — hardware, software and services — remains a large and lucrative business for I.B.M., and mainframes are still the back-office engines behind the world’s financial markets and much of global commerce.

The mainframe stands as a telling case in the larger story of survivor technologies and markets…

The Rite of Spring

“Having assembled his folk melodies, Stravinsky proceeded to pulverize them into motivic bits, pile them up in layers, and reassemble them in cubistic collages and montages.”

Alex Ross on Stravinsky, in his book The Rest is Noise: Listening to the Twentieth Century. Quoted by Steven Poole in his excellent review.

Er, in case you’re wondering (as I was) what ‘motivic’ means, Wikipedia says that it’s “using a distinct musical figure that is subsequently altered, repeated, or sequenced throughout a piece or section of a piece of music”, and that it “has its roots in the keyboard sonatas of Domenico Scarlatti and the sonata form of Haydn and Mozart’s age.”

How the Rumour Mill works

If you’re puzzled by what happened to HBOS shares last week, then this sobering Telegraph column by Jeff Randall may help.

Put simply: I know that you want to buy 100 shares in Jayar Junk. The shares are trading at £10 each. We strike a deal at that price, and I promise to deliver them in one week’s time. At this point, I still don’t own any Jayar Junk. No matter, my buddies at the Rumour Mill are about to go to work.

Through a series of postings on dodgy websites, anonymous emails and loose talk in dealers’ watering holes, we spread the story that Jayar Junk is running out of readies. Very soon the shares start falling, to £9, £8, £7. In angst-ridden markets, there is no bottom. When they hit £5, we buy 100.

Bingo! You are contracted to take them from me for a total of £1,000. My cost is just £500. I double my money and you are ripped off. It’s no more complicated than that. Like a spiritualist medium, the Rumour Mill relies on its victims believing an illusion: stock market ectoplasm.

It’s not illegal “to short” a stock, ie, sell shares that you do not have. Several reputable hedge funds made millions by “shorting” both Northern Rock and Bear Stearns. The law is broken, however, when the Rumour Mill creates malicious falsehoods with the aim of driving down prices.

For ordinary folk, whose pensions are jeopardised every time the Rumour Mill starts turning, these are troubling times. They tuck away a few quid each month in the belief that they are investing for retirement. They accept that there is risk, but don’t (yet) regard this form of saving as a day at the races.

But in his book, The Truth About Markets, Oxford economist Professor John Kay writes: “Most transactions in securities markets are not about sharing or spreading risks; they are like transactions in a betting shop. The people who engage in them believe they are deploying their superior knowledge, but this can never be true of more than a small minority of players.” The trick for regulators is to make sure that this small minority has gained its advantage openly and honestly, without recourse to chicanery. Experience tells us, however, that this is extremely difficult, if not impossible…

Google Adsense — or should that be Google Adinsensitive?

From the Guardian‘s Letters and blogs

The online Sydney Morning Herald of March 14 took the advert targeting issue, as discussed recently in Technology, to another level altogether. A report of a gruesome assault in a Sydney park was headed “Woman’s nose bitten off”. A link was provided – “Ads by Google” – to “Safe Cosmetic Surgery” from London. “Request a free brochure online now!” it urged, sensing there wasn’t a moment to lose.

Harold Lewis, Cobham

Thanks to Kevin Cryan for spotting it.

The Adsense logic engine produces weird results. When I’ve blogged about the quagmire in Iraq, for example, it often comes up with recruiting ads for the US Army. And whenever I write about the iniquities of the copyright thugs of the RIAA and the MPAA, Google invariably produces ads from legal firms offering their help in “protecting your intellectual property”.

Inside the snake-pit

From today’s Telegraph

The Bank of England has demanded the Financial Services Authority investigate inaccurate rumours sweeping the market that a British lender is in crisis after being forced to issue a vehement denial that it has been called into emergency meetings.

Sources said the Bank was livid with what it believes are short sellers attempting to turn a profit by spreading false stories about distressed lenders that could undermine the stability of Britain’s financial system in these fragile markets.
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A Bank spokesman said: “No meeting has taken place or been scheduled with any financial institution in the UK.”

It added that it made no loans through its standing facility yesterday.

HBOS appeared to be the main target of this morning’s speculation. Its shares tumbled up to 11pc on rumours that it had applied for emergency central bank funding despite a clear denial.

An HBOS spokesman said: “There is not a shred of substance whatsoever in these unfounded and malicious rumours. This is a classic case of a lie being half way round the world before truth has its boots on. It is deeply concerning these rumours are circulating the markets.

“HBOS is one of the strongest financial institutions in the world with a balance sheet of £660bn the group has also had the largest deposit base in the UK. We are one of the most respected names in the wholesale and capital markets. HBOS is a very strong financial institution.”

50,000 a day!

Competition Fuels Broadband Use in Europe – New York Times

BRUSSELS — Fierce competition from new providers has pushed the level of broadband subscriptions in eight European countries above the levels in the United States and Japan, according to figures to be released Wednesday.

Growth could accelerate further if the European Commission succeeds in a drive to jolt those countries still dominated by former state monopolies, according to the top telecommunications regulator in Brussels.

The commission says the European Union added 19 million broadband lines in 2007, the equivalent of more than 50,000 households per day…

Anthony Minghella RIP

Rats! A great talent snatched away

Anthony Minghella has died aged 54.

Minghella’s films included The English Patient – which earned him an Oscar for best director in 1997 – as well as Truly, Madly, Deeply and Cold Mountain.

He had an operation for a growth in his neck last week and the operation seemed to have gone well. But he had a fatal haemorrhage at 0500 GMT on Monday…

The English Patient was one of the best films I’ve ever seen.

Tony Dye RIP

Tony Dye, the only fund manager to talk sense during the first Internet bubble, has died. He withdrew his clients’ money from techbubble shares and put it into real companies and cash. For which service he was duly, er, retired. David Livesey pointed me at a generous obit in the Telegraph.

In March 2000, with the FTSE index at 6,400 and with Dye’s clients estimated to have lost some £8.5 billion in potential bull market gains, P&D finally lost patience. It was announced that Dye had taken “early retirement”. By this time the firm’s funds under management had fallen from £60 billion to less than £35 billion.

But Dye was – albeit belatedly – proved right. Within a month of his departure, and before P&D had had the chance to change its strategy, the stock market turned. Internet and telecom shares plunged, and the firm found itself rocketing from the bottom to the top of the pension fund performance tables.

The irony was that the hundreds of fund managers who had followed the herd and been proved disastrously wrong kept their jobs, while Dye paid the price for his independence of mind. Yet he remained philosophical, taking wry comfort from Keynes’s observation that “worldy wisdom teaches that it is better to fail conventionally than it is to succeed unconventionally”.