Bad Faith Economics

Paul Krugman on some of the Republican arguments against Obama’s stimulus package.

But the obvious cheap shots don’t pose as much danger to the Obama administration’s efforts to get a plan through as arguments and assertions that are equally fraudulent but can seem superficially plausible to those who don’t know their way around economic concepts and numbers. So as a public service, let me try to debunk some of the major antistimulus arguments that have already surfaced. Any time you hear someone reciting one of these arguments, write him or her off as a dishonest flack.

First, there’s the bogus talking point that the Obama plan will cost $275,000 per job created. Why is it bogus? Because it involves taking the cost of a plan that will extend over several years, creating millions of jobs each year, and dividing it by the jobs created in just one of those years.

It’s as if an opponent of the school lunch program were to take an estimate of the cost of that program over the next five years, then divide it by the number of lunches provided in just one of those years, and assert that the program was hugely wasteful, because it cost $13 per lunch. (The actual cost of a free school lunch, by the way, is $2.57.)

The true cost per job of the Obama plan will probably be closer to $100,000 than $275,000 — and the net cost will be as little as $60,000 once you take into account the fact that a stronger economy means higher tax receipts.

Next, write off anyone who asserts that it’s always better to cut taxes than to increase government spending because taxpayers, not bureaucrats, are the best judges of how to spend their money.

Here’s how to think about this argument: it implies that we should shut down the air traffic control system. After all, that system is paid for with fees on air tickets — and surely it would be better to let the flying public keep its money rather than hand it over to government bureaucrats. If that would mean lots of midair collisions, hey, stuff happens.

BlackBerry Storm: Stephen Fry was right

Confirmation in WSJ.com, that the BlackBerry Storm wasn’t ready for prime-time when it was launched.

Verizon and RIM, determined to release the Storm in time for the holidays, rushed the device to market despite glitches in the stability of the phone’s operating system, according to people close to the launch.

RIM co-Chief Executive Jim Balsillie said the companies made the crucial Black Friday deadline “by the skin of their teeth”, after missing a planned October debut. Mr. Balsillie said such scrambles — and the subsequent software glitches that need to be fixed — are part of the “new reality” of making complex cellphones in large volumes.

I like that bit about the “new reality” of releasing products you know aren’t working properly.

Holding Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld accountable

Mark Anderson is asking who should be held to account for all the Iraqi civilians killed since the US invasion.

Using these techniques, IBC reports between 90,400 to 98,700 civilian deaths to date. This conservative floor remains much higher than Bush administration claims of somewhere in the 15K+ region.

When this argument has continued for awhile, it is likely that no single study will prevail, but that the method of counting by randomized, direct survey will be the most accurate method. It is hard to make the argument, outside of scientific circles, that ethics or war crimes tribunals will distinguish between whether there were 100K deaths officially recognized by media and government, or 600K civilians actually killed, or twice that figure.

Who is responsible for these deaths? Why did these people die? For what? Non existent WMDs? Non existent Iraqi Al Qaeda?

Let’s say George Bush’s idea of Pre-emptive War has just killed something like 500k-1MM innocent civilians in Iraq, and that the war itself was a mistake. Or, much more worrisome, along Clarke’s lines, it was not a mistake at all. According to one of Rumsfeld’s top aides, who took notes at a meeting on 9.11, Rumsfeld wanted to go after Saddam “whether or not he was relevant” to the 9.11 attack.

Now what happens? Golf in Dallas? Cheney speechifying in Jackson Hole? Rummy rewriting history?

Now what happens?

And what about our own Revd. Blair’s responsibilities in this matter?

UK Photographers’ Rights

Paternoster Square (image from Wikipedia)

Paternoster Square (image from Wikipedia)

Given the increasing tolerance of security goonery in Mr Broon’s National Surveillance State, lots of photographers are reporting unpleasant harassment by officials and private-sector goons. The latest example I’ve heard about is of security guards confronting someone taking pictures in Paternoster Square in front of St Paul’s Cathedral in London and threatening to confiscate his camera if he didn’t stop taking pictures of the buildings lining the square. And A-level photography students at my daughter’s school report harassment of the same kind in other parts of London.

Most photographers don’t know what their legal position is, so this guide to UK Photographers Rights by a lawyer, linda Macpherson, is very useful and welcome. It’s designed as a short guide to the main legal restrictions on the right to take photographs and the right to publish photographs that have been taken. Worth printing a copy of the pdf and keeping it in your bag.

Joke of the week

From the New Yorker. A clergyman, officiating at a funeral service, is saying: “We will now observe a moment of silently checking our BlackBerrys.”

Writing in the Age of Distraction

Cory Doctorow is one of the wonders of the world — a very good writer, a terrific lecturer and an inspiring activist for open-ness. I’m perpetually amazed by his productivity, so was much cheered to come on this essay by him in Locus magazine. It’s essentially a list of suggestion about how to get things written. Top of the list is this:

Short, regular work schedule

When I’m working on a story or novel, I set a modest daily goal — usually a page or two — and then I meet it every day, doing nothing else while I’m working on it. It’s not plausible or desirable to try to get the world to go away for hours at a time, but it’s entirely possible to make it all shut up for 20 minutes. Writing a page every day gets me more than a novel per year — do the math — and there’s always 20 minutes to be found in a day, no matter what else is going on. Twenty minutes is a short enough interval that it can be claimed from a sleep or meal-break (though this shouldn’t become a habit). The secret is to do it every day, weekends included, to keep the momentum going, and to allow your thoughts to wander to your next day’s page between sessions. Try to find one or two vivid sensory details to work into the next page, or a bon mot, so that you’ve already got some material when you sit down at the keyboard.

This echoes the advice of many professional writers down the ages. Graham Greene, for example, used to write no more than 700 words a day — in the morning. But he wrote every single day.

The idea of finding 20 minutes a day is ingenious because it’s something that even the busiest of us can do. I’ve been thinking recently that a mobile phone with a decent little keyboard (step forward BlackBerry) would probably do quite nicely. You could even email the results of your daily stint to yourself.

Other tips from Cory include:

  • Use a simple text-processor. All you’re producing is words, after all. No formatting needed.
  • Don’t be ‘precious’ or ceremonious about where you write. Forget all that crap about having the right music, atmosphere, coffee, etc. Just do it!
  • Switch off all real-time comms when you’re writing — no IM, no Skype, no Twitter.
  • Great stuff.

    Many thanks to Adam Szedlak for the link.

    LATER: Bill Thompson, writing ruefully about how he is easily distracted.