Dangerous to ignore bloggers, survey claims

Hmmm…

Bloggers and internet pundits are exerting a “disproportionately large influence” on society, according to a report by a technology research company. Its study suggests that although “active” web users make up only a small proportion of Europe’s online population, they are increasingly dominating public conversations and creating business trends.
More than half of the internet users on the continent are passive and do not contribute to the web at all, while a further 23% only respond when prompted. But the remainder who do engage with the net – through messageboards, websites and blogs – are helping change the national conversation, say researchers.

“We’re seeing this growing,” said Julian Smith, an online advertising analyst with Jupiter Research and author of the report. “The strongest part of their influence is on the media: if something online suddenly becomes a story in the local press, then it matters.”

[Link]

Blair’s failure

There’s a very insightful column by Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian today. What’s interesting about it is that Freedland tries to stand back, to try and see what New Labour’s gathering crisis might look like from the vantage point of, say, 30 years hence. “Blairism was not merely a continuation of Thatcherism”, he writes.

In dialectical terms, it can claim to be a synthesis of the free-market revolution and the welfarism that preceded it. For while New Labour embraced the market, it insisted market forces could not be left entirely unfettered: there needed to be a minimum wage and at least some (though not all) of the labour protections enshrined in the European social chapter.

Blairism also understood that the public realm mattered, that few people wanted to live in a world of, in the late JK Galbraith’s words, private affluence and public squalor. So New Labour would happily follow Thatcherite strictures on the economy, but would no longer tolerate persistent neglect of the public sphere. They would invest billions in schools and hospitals that had been starved of cash for decades.

Now this synthesis is becoming a consensus of its own. Few expect David Cameron’s Conservatives to roll back the minimum wage or the social chapter. The Tories promise to maintain spending on education and health; they insist they want to eradicate child poverty.

Freedland suspects that we will come to see this period as the moment

when the limits of the New Labour synthesis were exposed. For at least seven years, Labour has sunk huge amounts of cash into the state. It has tried scheme after scheme to make it more efficient: setting targets, issuing directives, oiling, buffing and shining its creaky and rusted machinery. And yet it still isn’t working properly.

This isn’t because Blair & Co have been incompetent or that a different group of people would have done the job better.

It is rather a structural problem with the British state. Its machinery was designed for a 20th-century world that no longer exists. Today’s citizens are used to fast, efficient, wireless services that give them a high degree of personal choice; the lumbering bureaucracy of the state cannot catch up. Nor will aping the private sector, pretending government can be run like Domino’s Pizza or DHL, work – because health, education and public safety are not like garlic bread or packages. They are much more complex to deliver.

Now we’re getting somewhere. That’s why there’s been so much belated bleating suddenly about “systemic failure”. Freedland quotes the former Downing Street adviser Charles Leadbeater.

He said we were witnessing the failure of the “McKinsey state”, the Blair experiment in trying to run government like a big company, complete with management consultants and their expensive advice. “They wanted to make the sausage machine deliver a better product,” Leadbeater explains. “But that approach, of target-driven public-service reform, that Blair and [John] Birt bought into in a big way, is just exhausted.”

Amen to that. The £64 billion question is: does Gordon Brown understand this?

Microsoft and bereavement

From a nice column by Bob Cringeley…

Here’s a question I hope Bill Gates has asked himself: “What’s the likelihood that 10 years from now Microsoft will have 70-plus percent market share in; a) television software, and; b) mobile phone software?”

In both cases the odds are very much against Microsoft, yet Microsoft’s theory of business absolutely requires that it succeed spectacularly on at least one of these platforms and preferably both.

So the company is in crisis and that crisis comes down to every one of those five stages of dealing with death as defined originally in 1969 by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross. These stages are denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally, acceptance. Microsoft has been in denial for most of the five years and $5 billion of Longhorn/Vista. They have been angry this entire time, too, at an establishment that just doesn’t seem to understand the fragility of their empire and how breaking a few laws and destroying a few competitors is simply the price of survival at the top — the price of American greatness. Microsoft has been bargaining for the past two-three years as it settles its debts to society, pretends to reform, and tries to figure a way out of its current mess. Depression has really hit Redmond in the last year and will continue to grow until well into the eventual period of acceptance, which has not yet begun.

But what would acceptance even mean for Microsoft? Well, it certainly isn’t the acceptance of corporate death. It’s the acceptance of the death of its business theory, which is unsustainable since it requires complete triumph, which is nearly impossible. That Microsoft did it once before was luck and a willingness to bargain with the Devil. But now luck is gone, leaving only the Devil, and that’s not enough. Microsoft’s entire theory of business must die and the essence of its current crisis is that the company hasn’t yet realized or accepted that fact, and so it isn’t yet in a position where it can even envision a successor theory…

Blogged arteries

Robert Scoble’s Mum has had a stroke. He wrote about it on his Blog.

I’m off to Wikipedia to learn more about stroke and what the future for my mom holds. Anyone have good information and/or suggestions of things to ask the doctors?

When I last looked, he has 118 comments, some offering good advice and leads to info sources.

In memoriam SGI

Quentin’s right. The news that Silicon Graphics has filed for Chapter 11 protection does represent the end of an era. It was such an interesting company in the old days. And, as Michael Lewis retailed in his book, The new new thing, what happened to Jim Clark (the founder of SGI) had a big influence on the creation of Netscape, and thereby on the evolution of the Web. (It was the Netscape IPO in August 1995 that sparked off the first Internet boom.)

Dan Gillmor says this on his blog:

This entirely unsurprising development is the culmination of years of bad decisions and hubris from a company that once led the world in its field.

The worst decision was the one then-CEO Rick Belluzzo made years ago, when he turned SGI into just another company selling Windows computers. He later moved to Microsoft, adding insult to the injury he’d done SGI.

The beautiful headquarters building — another example of hubris so common in the Valley — in Mountain View now houses the Computer History Museum. At least something good came out of this debacle.

BitTorrent goes legit

Interesting times.

LOS ANGELES — Warner Bros.’ video unit will sell movies and television shows to BitTorrent for legal downloads from the website that was once blamed for aiding the swapping of illegally copied films and programs.

Starting this summer, Warner Bros. will make more than 200 films available at BitTorrent.com, including blockbusters such as Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire and TV shows like Babylon 5.

The pact marks a big step for Hollywood as it increasingly makes digital files of movies and TV shows available on the web because until last year, BitTorrent’s software and website were considered to be aiding piracy of major studio films.

But in November, BitTorrent agreed with the Motion Picture Association of America, which represents Hollywood’s major studios, to help stem illegal swapping of digital movies and TV shows by removing links to pirated copies.

Executives from Warner Bros. and BitTorrent said the MPAA pact and new digital rights management software from BitTorrent were key elements in bringing the parties together.

“We’ve come to a point where you have sufficient consumer demand and we have the technology that is now mature enough,” said Jim Wuthrich, senior vice president at Warner Bros. Home Entertainment.

The content will be available on the same day and date they are put on sale in retail stores, but cannot be copied and burned onto a DVD. They must reside on a computer drive…

[Link]

Jeff Jarvis has a post about this on Buzzmachine.

GMSV is nicely acerbic:

This morning the studio, which has been fighting a bitter battle against file-sharing networks, announced a plan that on the surface appears to be a forward-thinking adaptation of a new distribution system. “We’ve been struggling with peer-to-peer technology and trying to figure out a way to harness the good in all that the technology allows us to do,” Kevin Tsujihara, president of Warner Brothers Home Entertainment Group, told the New York Times. “If we can convert 5, 10 or 15 percent of the illegal downloaders into consumers of our product, that is significant.” It certainly would be. But I can’t imagine Warner will ever achieve conversion rates like that if the Torrented movies are priced the same as a shrink-wrapped DVD, yet encumbered with a robust copy protection that allows them to be viewed only on the computer to which they are downloaded. Leave it to Hollywood to “embrace” peer-to-peer distribution and all the economies and efficiencies that go along with it and then ruin it by using it to peddle an inferior and overpriced product.

Steve Jobs 1, Beatles nil, lawyers even richer

BBC Online report

The Beatles have lost their court challenge against Apple Computer over its iPod and iTunes download service.

Sir Paul McCartney, Ringo Starr and the families of George Harrison and John Lennon control the Apple Corps label.

They claimed the US firm broke a deal aimed at ensuring there would not be two Apples in the music industry.

But Mr Justice Anthony Mann ruled that the computer company used the Apple logo in association with its store, not the music, and so was not in breach.

The ruling means iPods and iTunes will still be able to carry the Apple name and logo.

Needless to say, the Beatles will appeal. M’learned friends are delighted. Rubies in the skies with diamonds now on order for their floozies.

What a shower

BBC NEWS | S Africa’s Zuma cleared of rape

Mr Zuma said he had had a shower after sex to prevent HIV transmission and believed that a healthy man was unlikely to catch HIV from a woman.

What is it with African males? Jacob Zuma was Deputy President of South Africa until obliged to stand down because of indictment on rape and corrruption charges. He’s now been acquitted of the former, but faces trial for the latter in July.

The really weird thing, though, is that until these clouds appeared on his horizon Zuma was head of the council which advised the South African president on Aids.

The joys of tourism

“Part of the pleasure of travel is to dive into places where others are compelled to live and come out unscathed, full of the malicious pleasures of abandoning them to their fate.”

Jean Baudrillard, quoted by Geoff Dyer in The Ongoing Moment.