Monday 30 December, 2024

Lest we forget

The Cambridge American Cemetery on a dull December day. It contains 3,809 headstones, with the remains of 3,812 servicemen, including airmen who died over Europe and sailors from North Atlantic convoys. The long wall on the right records the names of 5,127 missing servicemen, most of whom died in the Battle of the Atlantic and in the strategic air bombardment of northwest Europe. One of the names is that of the band-leader Glenn Miller.

Wikipedia says:

In 1943, the University of Cambridge gave 30.5 acres of land on the north slope of Madingley Hill to the American military forces for use as a temporary cemetery during World War II. After the war, the American Battle Monuments Commission chose Cambridge as the site for America’s permanent World War II cemetery and war memorial in the United Kingdom. America’s war dead from three temporary cemeteries in the British Isles were consolidated in the Cambridge cemetery during an extensive cemetery construction project, and simultaneously the United States government repatriated about 58% of the existing war dead at the request of their surviving family members. Cambridge American Cemetery and Memorial was dedicated on 16 July 1956.

It’s a beautifully maintained but sobering place, and worth a visit if you’re ever in Cambridge.


Quote of the Day

“Neither the sun nor death can be looked at with a steady eye.”

  • La Rochefoucauld

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Randy Newman | Sail Away

Link


Long Read of the Day

Maggie Smith remembered by David Hare

Lovely tribute to a great actress by a great playwright.

At the turn of the century, I wrote a play, The Breath of Life, in which Maggie appeared opposite Judi Dench. One night at the Theatre Royal Haymarket, Hillary Clinton came with Madeleine Albright. They were both seated on time, but Bill Clinton and Chelsea, delayed by traffic, joined them in the middle of first act. Next day, I was eager to find out what the Clintons had been like. Judi had received them in her dressing room and been swept away by their charm. When I went to ask Maggie what she thought of them, she said she had refused to meet them. “Do you think I’m going to shake hands with anyone who’s late for your play?”

Maggie’s exact phrasing has stayed with me, because it was the use of the word “your” that pierced my heart. It is one thing to reject the opportunity to meet the most famous people in the world, but to do so from unforced loyalty to a playwright tells you everything you need to know about Maggie’s character…

Do read it.


AI as the Miss Moneypenny of the 21st century

Yesterday’s Observer column:

If 2024 was the year of large language models (LLMs), then 2025 looks like the year of AI “agents”. These are quasi-intelligent systems that harness LLMs to go beyond their usual tricks of generating plausible text or responding to prompts. The idea is that an agent can be given a high-level – possibly even vague – goal and break it down into a series of actionable steps. Once it “understands” the goal, it can devise a plan to achieve it, much as a human would.

OpenAI’s chief financial officer, Sarah Friar, recently explained it thus to the Financial Times: “It could be a researcher, a helpful assistant for everyday people, working moms like me. In 2025, we will see the first very successful agents deployed that help people in their day to day.” Or it’s like having a digital assistant “that doesn’t just respond to your instructions but is able to learn, adapt, and perhaps most importantly, take meaningful actions to solve problems on your behalf”. In other words, Miss Moneypenny on steroids…

Read on


Books, etc.

The Cult of Jordan Peterson

From a nicely acerbic Economist review of Peterson’s latest 560-page doorstop, We Who Wrestle with God.

On November 18th a crowd gathered for the first night of his book tour in a village near New York City. It felt more like a concert. There was merch (Peterson posters and mugs) and a guitar warm-up act. When he came on stage, in a three-piece linen suit, the crowd — by no means all young or male -—whooped. The subject for this evening’s sermon, he told the congregation of fans, was sacrifice.

An entire Peterson industry has flourished for those willing to sacrifice their money: there is a Jordan Peterson newsletter (“Mondays of Meaning”), a “Peterson Academy” ($500 a year gets you lectures on manly things by people with beards) and a “self-authoring programme”. People who spend time writing about themselves, it promises, “become happier, less anxious and depressed”. Who knew? Certainly not Ernest Hemingway or Virginia Woolf—or, apparently, Jordan Peterson. As he reached the climax of the evening’s talk, his voice cracked. He is famous for weeping in speeches: YouTube offers a video compilation of “Jordan Peterson crying”.

Mr Peterson’s new book is as old-fashioned as his appearance. It reads as if it “could have been written in the 1950s”, says a publisher. Or, indeed, the 1850s…

Lovely.


My commonplace booklet

Patrick Collison, the Irish co-founder of Stripe, is that rare bird, a Tech billionaire and a keen reader. This year he’s read Jane Eyre, Middlemarch, To The Lighthouse, Bleak House, Portrait of a Lady, Anna Karenina, Life and Fate, Heart of Darkness, Madame Bovary, and The Magic Mountain. His reflections are here.


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

  •  English Wikipedia’s most popular articles of 2024 Link

If you haven’t donated to support Wikipedia, maybe you should. I do, because I use it every day — as you can tell from the links on this newsletter. It’s even more important to support it now, given that Elon Musk is targeting it as one of the sources of information that he can’t control.


This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


 

AI as the Moneypenny of the 21st century

Today’s Observer column:

If 2024 was the year of large language models (LLMs), then 2025 looks like the year of AI “agents”. These are quasi-intelligent systems that harness LLMs to go beyond their usual tricks of generating plausible text or responding to prompts. The idea is that an agent can be given a high-level – possibly even vague – goal and break it down into a series of actionable steps. Once it “understands” the goal, it can devise a plan to achieve it, much as a human would.

OpenAI’s chief financial officer, Sarah Friar, recently explained it thus to the Financial Times: “It could be a researcher, a helpful assistant for everyday people, working moms like me. In 2025, we will see the first very successful agents deployed that help people in their day to day.” Or it’s like having a digital assistant “that doesn’t just respond to your instructions but is able to learn, adapt, and perhaps most importantly, take meaningful actions to solve problems on your behalf”. In other words, Miss Moneypenny on steroids…

Read on

_________________ 

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Friday 27 December, 2024

A Modernist duck-pond

In the gardens of the Barbican Centre.


Quote of the Day

”God give me the serenity to accept things which cannot be changed; Give me courage to change things which must be changed; And the wisdom to distinguish one from the other.”

  • Theologian Reinhold Niebuhr (1892–1971)

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Wagner | Siegfried Idyll | Frankfurt Radio Symphony orchestra

Link

Entrancing. According to Wikipedia, Wagner composed it as a birthday present to his second wife, Cosima, after the birth of their son Siegfried in 1869. It was first performed on Christmas morning, 25 December 1870, by a small ensemble of the Tonhalle-Orchester Zürich on the stairs of their villa at Tribschen (today part of Lucerne), Switzerland. Cosima awoke to its opening melody. Not a bad way to start your day.


Long Read of the Day

AI Fight Club and what it hides

One of the most annoying things about the present moment is how it seems almost impossible to have a sane discussion about Large Language Models (LLMs) — or indeed about Generative AI generally. If you say that this is a powerful and interesting technology that needs to be taken seriously, then your ear is chewed off with a litany of downsides, dangers, complaints about corporate over-reach, environmental degradation and so on. On the other hand, if you observe that the technology has worrying flaws and that the corporations that own and control it are risks to democracy — and to the climate — then you get sneered at by VCs and boosters as an enemy of our old friend, ‘progress’.

Henry Farrell (Whom God Preserve) has written an interesting blog post in which he navigates these choppy waters with his customary adroitness.

My current cause for vexation is the controversy over AllDayTA.com, a new Large Language Model (LLM) based service for professors. Many academics are unhappy that this technology exists, and have expressed their feelings about the service’s creators (who are themselves academics) in plain and forceful language. The service’s creators have expressed their own unhappiness in turn.

Like so many other disputes, this one was swiftly pulled into the all-devouring maelstrom of what I call “AI Fight Club,” a ritualized combat, waged bout after bout between two highly stylized positions…

Do read the whole piece.


 

Books, etc.

Rory Cellan Jones is a journalist I’ve liked and admired for years, and when his wife Diane Coyle told me he’d written a book about a dog I was intrigued. So I bought it and am delighted I did. It’s the story of how he and Diane got a rescue dog from Romania which turned out to be chronically terrified of everything, and of how they were gradually able to cure the animal’s terror while their progress was being followed by hundreds of thousands of followers on social media. It’s beautifully written, and interweaves the story of Rory’s struggle with Parkinson’s with the tale of Sophie’s emergence into the light. If you’re looking a good news story in the midst of the current gloom, then this might be it.

In February last Rory was in Cambridge at his alma mater (Jesus College), and when we were going in to the event I suddenly noticed him making a last-minute phone call before going in to the auditorium for a public conversation with a couple of students before an invited audience.


My commonplace booklet

From The Economist:

To track academic writing over time, The Economist analysed 347,000 PhD abstracts published between 1812 and 2023. The dataset was produced by the British Library and represents a majority of English-language doctoral theses awarded by British universities. We reviewed each abstract using the Flesch reading-ease test, which measures sentence and word length to gauge readability. A score of 100 roughly indicates passages can be understood by someone who has completed fourth grade in America (usually aged 9 or 10), while a score lower than 30 is considered very difficult to read. An average New York Times article scores around 50 and a CNN article around 70. This article scores 41.

From “asymmetric allylation of aldehydes” to “pneumatological and apocalyptically eschatological foundations”, PhD abstracts had an unmistakably scholarly aroma. We found that, in every discipline, the abstracts have become harder to read over the past 80 years. The shift is most stark in the humanities and social sciences (see chart), with average Flesch scores falling from around 37 in the 1940s to 18 in the 2020s. From the 1990s onwards, those fields went from being substantially more readable than the natural sciences—as you might expect—to as complicated.

I’m not surprised, but abstracts are generally denser than the texts they describe, so the situation might not be as bad as the piece suggests.


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Wednesday 25 December, 2024

Having’s one’s cake…

… but not yet eating it.

Merry Christmas! And thank you for reading this newsletter during 2024.


Quote of the Day

”Resentment is like drinking poison and then hoping it will kill your enemies.”

  • Nelson Mandela

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

J.S. Bach | Wachet Auf | Royal Philharmonic Orchestra (Andrew Litton up) in August 2010.

Link

Perfect antidote to the carols that are on endless repeat on broadcasts this morning. Of for another antidote why not try Thea Gilmore’s lovely Midwinter Toast?


Long Read of the Day

Lying about Santa

Andrew Curry is one of the wonders of the online world — a blogger who is unfailingly interesting, original and thought-provoking. His latest edition has a nice topical note — a distillation of a seasonal exchange between two philosophers.

Probably only The Conversation would run an article by a philosopher explaining why it was wrong to lie to your kids about Santa, and then publish a retort by another philosopher a couple of days later. But since this is a pressing and divisive issue in many households, and one which will peak in the next 24 hours, I thought that Just Two Things could perform the public service of rehearsing the two sets of arguments.

In the red corner—lying about Santa is just plain wrong — is Joseph Millum of St. Andrews’ University. In the blue corner — chill a bit — is Tom Whyman, of the University of Liverpool. And now I’ve written this out, it is just the most Conversation thing ever.

Joseph Millum starts by pointing out that in general, parents try not to lie to their children…

I guess most parents don’t think about this interesting ethical question. But then, most of us are not philosophers! Hope you enjoy it.


Books, etc.

Now this was an appropriate Xmas present for a fox (like me) rather than a hedgehog. Gray’s intellectual journey has been interesting over a long and productive life. He’s moved from being an advocate of free-market liberalism to becoming one of its most vocal critics. He’s also been sceptical of the idea that human history shows steady moral or political improvement (Musk, Trump and Orban, anyone?) or that we can fully control our destiny through reason. And he’s very sound on cats. So I’m looking forward to reading this slim volume over the next week.


My commonplace booklet

A friend of an artist friend of mine who lives in the Barbican asked a generative AI to create a Christmas card.

My friend’s comment: “There is still a way to go before it takes over the world.”

Yep.


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

  • Every hotel needs a dog-stick library Link

(Ignore the invitation to log in to Instagram. Click on the X to close the pop-up.)


 

This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


Monday 23 December, 2024

Business Lunch, Soho


Quote of the Day

“America is a mistake – admittedly a gigantic mistake, but a mistake nevertheless.”

  • Sigmund Freud

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Alison Krauss | Down To The River To Pray

Link


Long Read of the Day

Getting the Essay Back: Two Memories

Lovely essay by Richard Farr about being a student — and finally learning what it’s about.

Here’s an excerpt:

He makes small talk briefly and then dips into his briefcase to return my essay on Descartes’ Discourse on Method. He watches me as I survey the red ink. There’s a lot of red ink.

“This is bad,” he says. “Really remarkably bad, though in an interesting way. Tell me, do you take notes during lectures?”

“Of course — some anyway. I don’t try to take everything down.”

“That’s a step in the right direction. It would probably be better if you didn’t take notes at all.”

“That seems extreme.”

“I’ll get more extreme in a minute. Have a sandwich.”

“Thank you.”

“The highest aspiration of most undergraduates is to regurgitate accurately whatever the instructor has said. So they scribble furiously, hoping not to miss anything. This makes it impossible to spend any time thinking. When the time comes to regurgitate, some do it accurately, some less so. And that’s all there is to it.”

He shrugs and takes a sip of tea. “Good students don’t regurgitate…

He’s right. They don’t. Do read it.


Books, etc.

A colleague had this with him at our Centre’s Xmas supper, and as various conversations went on around me I opened it and started to read. In no time I found myself starting on Chapter 2 with no idea of what the people around me had been talking about!. It’s an original and intriguing little book about how the architecture of home has shaped, and continues to shape, our psyches and our societies. So I bought a copy as a housewarming present for one of my sons, who has just bought his first house — after renting for years.


My commonplace booklet

 Making the real Thomas Cromwell stand up

Like millions of others, I recently watched the final series of Peter Kosminski’s adaptation of Hilary Mantel’s Wolf Hall trilogy. Inevitably, I spent a good deal of time afterwards lamenting how little I had known of Tudor history, and brooding on the enigma that was Thomas Cromwell. And then I stumbled on this short talk by the Tudor historian, Diarmaid MacCulloch, whose biography of Cromwell came out in 2019. Which in turn prompted the thought that his book might make a rather good Xmas present for some of the friends and family members with whom I’ve discussed the novels and their TV adaptations.


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Friday 20 December, 2024

The Granta at night

My favourite Cambridge pub, seen the other evening on my way home.


Quote of the Day

”Whoever said money can’t buy you happiness didn’t know where to shop.”

  • Gertrude Stein

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Gerry O’Connor and Arty McGlynn | Francie Brearton’s (Jig) & Sally Kelly’s (Reel)

Link


Long Read of the Day

Optical Delusions

A fine blast by Tina Brown on how “Trump has shown again he can distract us from ominous reality with the parade of glitz to which America has become addicted”.

World War III may be Topic A in Europe and the Middle East but, here in America, all eyes are on Mar-a-Lago, the capital of Gloat. Trump has shown again he can distract us from the ominous reality brewing all over the map with the parade of glitz to which America has become terminally addicted. We first learned that in 2016 at the Republican Convention when the whole camera-ready Trump clan was disgorged from the plane with his name on it and streamed across the tarmac, the Trump women with their long legs, short skirts, and glossy, highlighted Fox News hair, the big-shouldered loudness of Trump in his tomato tie. Ever since, liberals have been yelling that Trump is a braggart, a charlatan, a bankruptcy-spawning loser whom they could skewer with felonies, impeachments, and the latest daily outrage.

But to hardscrabble male voters of every ethnicity, nothing looks more like success than Trump’s phallic golden tower in Manhattan, the brace of fantasy luxury hotels, and the 114-room Palm Beach Versailles with its gold-plated crests, multi-chandeliered Donald J. Trump ballroom, and 27-hole golf course. And who could look and sound more like a leader than an assassination survivor with a raised fist, a bloody ear, and an instantaneous bellow of “fight, fight, fight?”

Post-election, Trump knows how to keep the story lines fresh…

Fighting talk. I loved it.


Books, etc.

I’m not at all interested in space, and the more I hear Elon Musk the more disinterested I become. But I was struck by this review of the book. Here’s a sample:

They aim to counter the ‘myths, fantasies, and outright misunderstanding of basic facts’ on space settlements as projected by space agencies, corporations and billionaires such as Elon Musk, who spend time and money raising expectations that if things go drastically wrong for us here on earth there is a plan B, and we can expect space settlements as early as 2050.

I particularly enjoyed the bit of the review that dealt with the important question of sex in space.

Male space travellers have been honest and reported that the fundamental step in the reproductive process, desire, remains very much alive when whizzing around in space. They have also admitted being physiologically capable of engaging in the reproductive process. But the jury is out when it comes to female astronauts’ sexual activity in spacecrafts. A newly married couple on a space station retained the privacy of their intimacy, leaving fellow travellers and scientists to speculate on the couple’s sexual activity during their time in space, especially when practical issues on board a spacecraft are an impediment to amorous moments between couples. The space within the shuttle and the presence of fellow travellers on board suggest that there would need to be either some collective agreement amongst all on board to secure privacy, and gravity issues might call for a third-party intervention to ensure the ‘successful rendezvous and docking’.

I’ve got plenty to read as it is, so I’ll probably give it a miss, but it sounds like a serious and interesting book.


My commonplace booklet

How a society loses its mind

From a Washington Post report on drone hysteria in the Eastern US…

Former Maryland governor Larry Hogan (R) — who recently lost a campaign for U.S. Senate — posted a video on X last week showing what he said were drones flying over his house. They turned out to be stars in the constellation Orion, according to Washington Post meteorologist Matthew Cappucci.

Sen. Andy Kim (D-New Jersey) posted a long thread on X describing strange lights he saw during a ride-along with local police. A day later, he clarified that after further research, he’d concluded that what he saw was probably an airplane.

“We have a lot of distrust in politics/government right now, and we need federal gov to respect the right for the public to be informed,” Kim said on X over the weekend.


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

  • An AI’s appraisal of Tyler Cowen .

A reader of the economist Tyler Cowen’s excellent blog (of which I am also a reader) asked Perplexity to “analyze Tyler Cowen’s tone across his books, his articles, his blog posts, his podcast, and his tweets and show differences and similarities across those media? The assessment  is interesting IMO.


 This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


Wednesday 18 December, 2024

Harry Potter? Yawn…

King’s Cross station in London is the terminus for the fast trains from Cambridge, so I pass through it quite a lot. In a brilliant marketing move years ago someone had the idea of capitalising on the fact that ‘Platform 9¾’ was the platform from which the Hogwarts express departed its way northwards to the famous academy. Accordingly, every day that I pass through the station I see the huge queues of Potter fans waiting to have their photos taken under the platform sign before entering the merchandising shop.

This photograph, taken one morning last May, is one of my favourites. I noticed that one of the kids in the queue was fed up waiting in line (and was obviously tired, perhaps from travelling). As I watched, he yawned. Snap! One of those Cartier-Bresson moments.


Quote of the Day

“The two most beautiful words in the English language are: ‘Cheque enclosed.’”

  • Dorothy Parker

I wonder how many people nowadays know what a ‘cheque’ was/is.


Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

UB40 | Swing Low Sweet Chariot

Link


Long Read of the Day

The AI Calculation Debate

A new paper by Cass Sunstein.

Cass Sunstein is one of those annoying scholars who produces a book or two every year as well as numerous academic papers. What’s annoying is that most of them are pretty good. So when I came across this paper — which he finished writing less than a week ago — I settled down to read.

It all started, it seems, with a conversation he (CRS) had with ChatGPT.

CRS: If I flip a coin, can you predict whether it will come up heads or tails?

ChatGPT: No, I can’t predict the outcome of a coin flip. A fair coin toss is random, and each flip has an equal 50% chance of coming up heads or tails. If you’d like, I can simulate a coin flip for you!

CRS: Why can’t you predict the outcome of a coin flip?

ChatGPT: Predicting the outcome of a coin flip is nearly impossible because it depends on a complex combination of factors, including:

  1. Initial Conditions: The force, angle, and speed of the flip, along with the height it reaches, are all variables that are difficult to measure and control precisely.

  2. Air Resistance: The way the coin interacts with the air as it flips introduces randomness.

  3. Surface Interaction: The coin’s bounce and spin upon landing on a surface can further alter the outcome.

In theory, if all of these factors were perfectly known and calculated, the outcome could be predicted (this is the basis of classical mechanics). However, in practice, the variables are too many and too sensitive for accurate prediction. For most purposes, a coin flip is treated as random.

CRS: Isn’t the word “random” misleading here?

ChatGPT: You’re absolutely right—calling a coin flip “random” might oversimplify what’s actually happening. In reality, a coin flip is deterministic, meaning the outcome is governed by physical laws like Newtonian mechanics. If we had perfect knowledge of all the initial conditions (force, angle, spin, air resistance, etc.), we could theoretically predict the result every time.

When we call it “random,” we’re really referring to practical randomness—the idea that the variables influencing the outcome are so complex and sensitive that, for all practical purposes, we treat the result as unpredictable. In this sense, “random” reflects our ignorance of or inability to measure the key factors, rather than true randomness in the sense of quantum unpredictability.

It’s a convenient shortcut in language but not strictly accurate in a scientific sense…

Sunstein uses this exchange as a jumping-off point for a long and interesting disquisition on why attempts to predict careers, romances and political revolutions are impossible. I enjoyed his journey through these puzzles, but then perhaps it’s the kind of thing that only academics like, so feel free to ignore the link!

On a lighter note. There’s a nice story Sunstein once told against himself. He’s married to Samantha Power, who was the US Representative to the United Nations during Obama’s presidency. When the UN was in session, she and Cass had a suite in some posh New York hotel, and he noticed that the staff always addressed him as “Mr Power”. One morning, when he was going out by himself he asked the concierge to get him a taxi.

The conversation then went like this:

Concierge: “Under what name, Sir?”
Cass: “Sunstein”.
Concierge looks at him quizzically.
Cass: “What’s puzzling you?”
Concierge: “Nothing, Sir. It’s just that you look awful like Mr Power.”


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

  • You can buy a car on Amazon now. Well, only in the US, and it has to be a Hyundai. Oh, and even Prime subscribers can’t get it delivered. They have to collect it from a dealership. Weird. Link

This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


Monday 20 December, 2024

The dark at the end of the tunnel

A metaphor for 2025?


Quote of the Day

”If you can’t explain something in simple terms, you don’t understand it.”

  • Richard Feynman

And was it Wittgenstein who said somewhere that “If a thing can be said, it can be said simply”? Or maybe I imagined it.


Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Haydn | Missa in angustiis “Nelson Mass” in D minor | Credo: Et incarnatus est

Link

I love Haydn, but this work was new to me. No longer, thanks to John Seeley. I found the title puzzling, so went to Wikipedia:

Though Haydn’s reputation was at its peak in 1798, when he wrote this mass, his world was in turmoil. Napoleon had won four major battles with Austria in less than a year. The previous year, in early 1797, his armies had crossed the Alps and threatened Vienna itself. In May 1798, Napoleon invaded Egypt to destroy Britain’s trade routes to the East.

The summer of 1798 was therefore a terrifying time for Austria, and when Haydn finished this mass, his own title, in the catalogue of his works, was Missa in angustiis (Mass for troubled times). What Haydn did not know when he wrote the mass, but what he and his audience heard (perhaps on September 15, the day of the very first performance), was that on 1 August, Napoleon had been dealt a stunning defeat in the Battle of the Nile by British forces led by Admiral Horatio Nelson. Because of this coincidence, the mass gradually acquired the nickname Lord Nelson Mass. The title became indelible when, in 1800, Lord Nelson himself visited the Palais Esterházy, accompanied by his British mistress, Lady Hamilton, and may have heard the mass conducted by Haydn whom he would meet shortly afterwards


Long Read of the Day

I have a cunning plan … 

Charlie Stross in top form.

If you hanker after dystopian sci-fi extrapolations of a Trump Administration then this is it, courtesy of a master of the genre.

Because we are obviously living in the silliest, darkest time line — or maybe the darkest, silliest time line — Donald Trump’s pick to lead American healthcare next year, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is an anti-vaxxer crank. And this week the New York Times broke the news that Kennedy’s Lawyer Has Asked the F.D.A. to Revoke Approval of the Polio Vaccine. They add, “Aaron Siri, who specializes in vaccine lawsuits, has been at Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s side reviewing candidates for top jobs at the Department of Health and Human Services.”

Read on.


My commonplace booklet

Andy Grove was Right

If, like me, you have been watching the tech industry for decades then one of the most startling stories is of the slow-motion implosion of Intel, which was once a truly dominant force — as dominant in its time as Google or Nvidia are now.

John Gruber has a great piece about this on his Daring Fireball blog.

There’s no argument about it. Intel completely missed mobile. iPhones never used Intel chips and Apple Silicon chips are all fabbed by TSMC. Apple’s chips are the best in the industry, also without argument, and the only mobile chips that can be seen as reasonable competition are from Qualcomm (and maybe Samsung). Intel has never been a player in that game, and it’s a game Intel needed not only to be a player in, but to dominate.

It’s not just that smartphones are now a bigger industry than the PC industry ever was, and that Intel has missed out on becoming a dominant supplier to phone makers. That’s bad, but it’s not the worst of it. It’s that those ARM-based mobile chips — Apple Silicon and Qualcomm’s Snapdragon lineup — got so good that they’re now taking over large swaths of the high end of the PC market. Partly from an obsessive focus on performance-per-watt efficiency, partly from the inherent advantages of ARM’s architecture, partly from engineering talent and strategy, and partly from the profound benefits of economies of scale as the mobile market exploded.

Gruber points out that of all companies, Intel should have seen the danger that this would happen. It had failed to take “phone chips” seriously, but within a decade, those ostensibly negligible chips became the best CPUs not only for expensive PC desktops and laptops, but also their their energy efficiency advantages made them popular for data centres too (where once Intel had been the go-to supplier).

The irony is that appreciating the potential of the personal computer is what made Intel a corporate giant way back at the beginning of that revolution. Then, PCs were derided as toys by the big computer companies — the DECs and IBMs — of the 1970s and early 1980s. IBM, for example, only belatedly realised that it had to get on the PC bandwagon, and in order get on board it went to Intel for the 8086 processors to power its PC. Which meant that Intel (along with Microsoft, the owner of the PC operating system MS-DOS) ruled the entire computing industry for 25 years.

The biggest irony of all though — as Gruber points out — is that Andy Grove, the Intel CEO who drove the company’s rise to world domination, was famous for a particular aphorism. “Business success,” he famously observed, “contains the seeds of its own destruction. Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive.”

Yep.


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

  • Ilya Sutskever on ten years working at the frontier of AI research. Fabulous 20+ minute keynote address to last week’s NeurIPS conference in Vancouver by one of the great figures in the field. Interesting (and tantalising) punch-line comes at the very end of his talk — before the questions. I love his straightforward, unpretentious style.

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Friday 13 December, 2024

Snowy and me

He’s been monitoring my workload atop the screens of a succession of MacBooks for many years.


Quote of the Day

”People never die wishing they’d bought more stuff.”

  • House-clearance manager

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Beethoven | The Prisoners’ Chorus | Fidelio

Link

Obvious music given what’s in my Commonplace booklet below.


Long Read of the Day

Economics, pluralism and democracy: An interview with Ha-Joon Chang

Link

Ha-Joon taught in the Economics Faculty in Cambridge for years and was the most accessible writer on the subject I knew. I often wondered why the Faculty of Economics hadn’t given him a professorial Chair. Was it because his books sold so well? (One of the reasons, incidentally, why the English Faculty never gave George Steiner a Chair.) My guess was that it might have been because of fundamental intellectual disagreements between Chang and the cabal of neoclassical economists who then ruled the Faculty.

This hunch is confirmed by this revealing interview. As I read it I was continually reminded of Bertrand Russell’s famous observation that “Economics is the study of how people make choices, and sociology is the study of how they don’t have any choices to make”.

It’s a very long read, but I found it unfailingly interesting and thought-provoking and I hope you do too. Maybe worth brewing some coffee and taking some time out, though…


On reflection…At the root of Chang’s difficulties in Cambridge was what Thomas Kuhn wrote about aeons ago in The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. The book describes the way in which any scientific discipline operates by coalescing around a paradigm — the overarching theoretical framework that determines what gets taught, who gets appointed and who gets promoted, what topics are deemed interesting for research, who gets published, what kind of theorising is esteemed, and so on.

Kuhn was writing about scientific disciplines, but I think that his general framework applies to many academic disciplines. The central problem is that while disciplines cannot operate without a paradigm (because it’s what defines them), sometimes a paradigm may become pathological, effectively condemning the discipline to stew in its own intellectual juices for a long time. Which IMO is what happened to economics as it descended into ‘physics envy’ and the delusion that it could become a ‘hard’ science. Chang’s ‘problem’ in Cambridge was that he never suffered from that delusion. And it perhaps explains why he now has a Chair in SOAS.

(The transcript comes from the Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics, Volume 17, Issue 2, Winter 2024.)


My commonplace booklet

 ‘Are you serious?’: He spent months in a Syrian prison. CNN’s camera caught the moment he’s freed

A remarkable — and moving — CNN video report of the moment when one of one of Assad’s prisoners was rescued.

Coincidentally, Sheila Hayman (Whom God Preserve) sent me a link to an account on Freedom from Torture written in 2008 by a prisoner of Assad, who tells his story in the third person.


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

 Gemini Flash mixes cocktails. Simon Willison, a talented geek whom I follow, is a great guide to the newest AI models. He’s very impressed by Google’s Gemini 2.0 Flash, a multi-modal LLM. That means it can handle inputs in the form of images, video, audio and documents. He’s made a short video showing one of his interactions with it, which is fascinating — even if slightly incomprehensible to someone (i.e. me) who has never had a cocktail in his life.


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Wednesday 11 December, 2024

Summertime, when…

It’s that time of year, when everything is muddy, brown and skies are grey. So it was nice while sorting through photos to stumble on a reminder of how the garden looked six months ago.


Quote of the Day

”They tried to bury me but they didn’t know I was a seed.”

  • Sinéad O’Connor (1966-2023)

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Lightnin’ Hopkins | Live 1964

Link

Mesmerising.


Long Read of the Day

The phoney comforts of AI skepticism

This is an interesting essay by Casey Newton. It was prompted by attending a conference in Berkeley that brought together engineers at big tech companies, independent safety researchers, academics, nonprofit leaders, and people who have worked in government to discuss whether AI poses an existential threat, how the risks and benefits should be weighed, whether it should be regulated (and, if so, how) and when might we expect AGI.

Casey’s takeaway from the event is that there are two intellectual ‘camps’ here: one (mostly external to the tech industry) holds that AI is fake and sucks; the other (mostly internal) believes that AI is real and dangerous. Casey is in the latter camp.

One way you can demonstrate that AI is real is by looking at how many people use it. ChatGPT, the most popular generative AI product on the market, said this week that it has 300 million weekly users, already making it one of the largest consumer products on the internet.

Another way you can demonstrate that AI is real is by looking at where tech giants are spending their money. It’s true that tech companies (and the venture capitalists that back them) often make mistakes; VCs expect to have more failures than they have successes. Occasionally, they get an entire sector wrong — see the excess of enthusiasm for cleantech in the 2000s, or the crypto blow-up of the past few years.

In aggregate, though, and on average, they’re usually right. It’s not impossible that the tech industry’s planned quarter-trillion dollars of spending on infrastructure to support AI next year will never pay off. But it is a signal that they have already seen something real.

The most persuasive way you can demonstrate the reality of AI, though, is to describe how it is already being used today. Not in speculative sci-fi scenarios, but in everyday offices and laboratories and schoolrooms. And not in the ways that you already know — cheating on homework, drawing bad art, polluting the web — but in ones that feel surprising and new.

With that in mind, here are some things that AI has done in 2024…

Read on.

There’s already been lots of interesting (and sometimes predictable) pushback against Casey’s analysis. I liked Dave Karpf’s contribution in particular.

“If you combed through everything I’ve posted or reskeeted on Bluesky”, he writes,

“you could surely find me saying some version of ‘AI is fake and it sucks, probably in the midst of cackling about some headline. I say a lot of things online. Much of what I say is glib.

But the reason why labeling the entire AI skeptic camp according to our most-glib retorts doesn’t sit right is that people in this camp (myself included) have written plenty of more thorough and serious critiques. We, broadly speaking, think that generative AI is very real and very dangerous, specifically because it does not work as-advertised. (Or, as Brian Merchant once wrote, “I’m not saying don’t be nervous about the onslaught of AI services — but I am saying be nervous for the right reasons.”)


Books, etc.

’Tis the season of ‘Books of the Year’ features. The Financial Times’s journalists came up with an autodidact’s nightmare — a list of 173 tomes! The Observer New Review (for which I write) devoted most of Sunday’s edition to the subject. In thinking about a personal list I came up with a different idea — books I read in 2024 from which I had learned something useful or had changed the way I thought about things.

Here’s the list:

  • Dan Davies: The Unaccountability Machine: Why Big Systems Make Terrible Decisions – and How The World Lost its Mind
  • Neil Lawrence: The Atomic Human
  • Rob Reich, Mehran Sahami and Jeremy Weinstein: System Error: Where Big Tech Went Wrong and How We Can Reboot
  • Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson: Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity Abe Newman and Henry Farrell: Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy
  • Ethan Mollick: Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI
  • Tony Judt: *Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945
  • Martin Wolf:  The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism
  • Francis Spufford: Red Plenty
  • Adam Kirsch: The Revolt Against Humanity: Imagining a Future Without Us
  • Richard J. Evans: Hitler’s People: The Faces of the Third Reich
  • Virginia Woolf: Collected Essays
  • Claire Keegan: Small Things Like These
  • Parmy Olson: AI, ChatGPT and the race that will change the world 

I’ll write some notes on why I chose these in the next week or so.


My commonplace booklet

The Economist on Assad’s torturę centres

Link (gift article)

Among all the symbols of Mr Assad’s brutality, none was as potent as Saidnaya prison. Many of the tens of thousands of people taken over decades to what Syrians called al-Maslakh al-Basharia, the human slaughterhouse, never came out. Human-rights groups estimate that between 13,000 and 30,000 people have been murdered in Saidnaya alone since the beginning of the Syrian uprising in 2011. And there are many other jails as well.

What people found when they got to Saidnaya was even worse than they had imagined. The regime had dug hidden cells into the ground beneath the jail, packing men by the dozen into the pitch-black chambers. Screams echoed into the night air around the prison, both of agony at the prisoners’ suffering and of ecstasy about their liberation. The emptied cells reeked of urine contained in plastic bottles; sodden blankets were piled in corners. In one corridor lay a prosthetic leg, its owner nowhere to be found. On the walls of an abandoned cell someone had scribbled “take me, already” in Arabic. A group of fighters discovered an iron press, which they claimed was used to crush the remains of executed prisoners…

And now Assad has been granted asylum in Russia by his pal Vladimir.


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

  • “Teen creates memecoin, dumps it, earns $50,000 in a few hours!” Ars Technica. The site that enabled him to do this — Pump.fun — is (sadly, or perhaps fortunately) not accessible in the UK.


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