Call it a micki

Doc Searls has been thinking about what’s missing in wiki technology.

Wikis are flat. All topics are at the same level. This is fine for an encyclopedia, but lousy for, say, projects. Joint efforts such as ProjectVRM are not flat. They have topics and subtopics. These change and move around, and this is where an outliner like MORE is so handy. With a few keystrokes you can move topics up and down levels, back and forth between higher-level headings… You can hoist any single topic up and work on that as if it were a top level. You can clone a topic or a piece of text and edit it in two places at once. I could go on, but trust me: it freaking rocked. There was no faster way to think or type. Hell, I’m typing this in one of its decendents: an OPML editor, also written by Dave Winer.

Anyway, just wanted to say, here in the midst of an unrelated local conversation, that wiki that works like MORE remains on the top of my software wish list for the world. Trust me: it would make the world a much more sensible place. And make both individual and group work a helluva lot easier.

Source.

Dave Winer is interested. I’d put money on the proposition that something useful will come from this.

MORE was the most useful piece of software I’ve ever used. It ran on all the early Macs I owned. For years after OS X came out I retained the Mac Classic emulator for just one purpose — so that I could run MORE. I stopped only after Q discovered OmniOutliner, which is pretty good — and still the best tool for thinking on my machine. But it only works on my stuff: a wiki tool which would bring that kind of functionality to collaborative documents would be a killer web app.

Thinking about the future, Pew-style

A Pew survey of internet leaders, activists and analysts shows they expect major technology advances as the phone becomes a primary device for online access, voice-recognition improves, artificial and virtual reality become more embedded in everyday life, and the architecture of the
internet itself improves.

They disagree about whether this will lead to more social tolerance, more forgiving human relations, or better home lives.

Here are the key findings in a new report based on the survey of experts by the Pew Internet & American Life Project that asked respondents to assess predictions about technology and its roles in the year 2020:

* The mobile device will be the primary connection tool to the
internet for most people in the world in 2020.

* The transparency of people and organizations will increase, but
that will not necessarily yield more personal integrity, social
tolerance, or forgiveness.

* Voice recognition and touch user-interfaces with the internet
will be more prevalent and accepted by 2020.

* Those working to enforce intellectual property law and copyright
protection will remain in a continuing “arms race,” with the “crackers”
who will find ways to copy and share content without payment.

* The divisions between personal time and work time and between
physical and virtual reality will be further erased for everyone who is
connected, and the results will be mixed in their impact on basic social
relations.

* “Next-generation” engineering of the network to improve the
current internet architecture is more likely than an effort to rebuild
the architecture from scratch.

Full report from here.

Good summary here.

The sting in the long tail

This morning’s Observer column.

'Scorpions', says Wikipedia, 'are eight-legged venomous arachnids. They have a long body with an extended tail with a sting.' Staff of the Internet Watch Foundation (IWF), the self-appointed monitor of 'child sexual abuse content hosted worldwide' and of 'criminally obscene and incitement to racial hatred content hosted in the UK', may well find themselves in rueful agreement about the sting. Except that what they've discovered is that Wikipedia also has one.

Pause for a review of recent events…

The mouse that roared

This morning’s Observer column.

The computer mouse was a key element in the icon-based interface that we now take for granted, and it was a great success in its day (though Engelbart did not make a cent from it). Last week, for example, Logitech, a leading computer accessories manufacturer, announced that it had shipped its billionth mouse. ‘It’s rare in human history that a billionth of anything has been shipped by one company,’ Logitech’s general manager Rory Dooley told the BBC. ‘Look at any other industry and it has never happened.’

Up to a point, Mr Dooley. What about paperclips, Bic pens and Faber-Castell pencils, to name just three? But it may be that the mouse has had its day. It’s not much use with an iPhone, and no good at all when it comes to controlling a video wall. The industry is moving towards new interfaces controlled by touch, gestures, voice and maybe even eye movements. In 40 years, Logitech’s latest gesture-based MX Air Mouse will doubtless look as quaint as Engelbart’s wood-encased wheel-mouse does today.

Not that he will give a damn. Mr Engelbart has always viewed technology as a means to an end, not an end in itself…

Managing spikes

Fascinating post about current traffic patterns on the Net.

Lately, I see more sudden eyeballs and what used to be an established trend seems to fall into a more chaotic pattern that is the aggregate of different spike signatures around a smooth curve. This graph is from two consecutive days where we have a beautiful comparison of a relatively uneventful day followed by long-exposure spike (nytimes.com) compounded by a short-exposure spike (digg.com):

The disturbing part is that this occurs even on larger sites now due to the sheer magnitude of eyeballs looking at today’s already popular sites. Long story short, this makes planning a real bitch.

And the interesting thing is perspective on what is large… People think Digg is popular — it is. The New York Times is too, as is CNN and most other major news networks — if they link to your site, you can expect to see a dramatic and very sudden increase in traffic. And this is just in the United States (and some other English speaking countries)… there are others… and they’re kinda big.

What isn’t entirely obvious in the above graphs? These spikes happen inside 60 seconds. The idea of provisioning more servers (virtual or not) is unrealistic. Even in a cloud computing system, getting new system images up and integrated in 60 seconds is pushing the envelope and that would assume a zero second response time. This means it is about time to adjust what our systems architecture should support. The old rule of 70% utilization accommodating an unexpected 40% increase in traffic is unraveling. At least eight times in the past month, we’ve experienced from 100% to 1000% sudden increases in traffic across many of our clients.

Writing by candlelight

We had a power cut today. Our house — and indeed the entire village — was without electricity from before noon until late afternoon. Sobering experience. And a salutary reminder of how much our lives depend on stable electricity supplies. Basically, nothing in our house worked: no lighting; no heating; no cooking; no hot water; no TV; no broadband; no chargers for mobile phones. I lit a blazing log fire, so we wouldn’t have frozen, and we could always have gone out to restaurant if there had been no power for cooking. As I say, sobering. And also a reminder of why, global warming or not, no democratic government is going to allow electricity supplies to falter. So we’ll have nukes, or whatever else it takes to keep the lights on.

Dr Internet

This morning’s Observer column

A detailed academic study some years ago estimated that 4.5 per cent of all internet searches were health-related, which at the time translated into 16.7 million health-related queries a day. Again, I’m sure that number has gone up.

All of which suggests that people worry a lot about their health and see the web as a great way of becoming better informed. The medical profession is, to put it mildly, not over the moon. The more literate practitioners shake their heads and quote Mark Twain’s adage: ‘Be careful about reading health books. You may die of a misprint.’ But others are more righteous and wax indignant about what they see as the errors and misinformation peddled by many sites that purport to deal with health issues…

LATER: I had a moving email from a correspondent who lives on the other side of the world. I’m quoting it verbatim except that I’ve anonymised it.

In 2005, my second son, arrived in a hurry. We were living in Southern Japan at the time.
Following what had been another wonderful pregnancy, my wife and I were not at all prepared for the shock of his arrival and his condition.

It turned out our son was born with congenital cytomegalovirus. Once I learned the name of what it was that had ravaged his body, I obviously turned to the Internet, including PubMed. Alright, so I am familiar with research, indices, journals et cetera, I was at the time an Associate Prof., and I am fairly well read. So perhaps I am not your average punter, but nevertheless within 24hrs I had read almost all there was on the research and treatment of cCMV.

The good folks at the National hospital, had similarly gone off to look this one up. But their research was almost entirely based on what was in-print in Japanese.

We had both come to similar, but not identical conclusions. One, and only one treatment was available, a chemotherapy over the course of 6 weeks may save his sight and his hearing. The Registrar wanted to begin immediately. I said No.
I had read about the dangers of the chemo in seriously compromised infants, and through the internet had managed to reach doctors at Mayo, U. of Alabama, Melbourne Sick Kids, Sydney Royal, and Great Ormond Street, never mind almost 100 parents of kids with cCMV, through a list-serv.

The overwhelming advice, albeit guarded, and with lots of back-out clauses, essentially said, ‘Wait, let the infant recover from the trauma of birth, treat some of the minor conditions, and in a week or so’s time – then start the chemo. If you start it now – he will die.’.

It was a very hard call – going against the doctor’s advice in Japan. But I did. To say they were not happy is a bit of an understatement. I subsequently moved my son a few days later to a newer prefectural hospital, and another NICU team.
He began the chemo course at 10 days old, in a much stronger condition, and he got through it. He can see, and despite being told he was going to be severely deaf, he can hear.

While I could have rung around using old fashioned telephones, there is no way I could have been as informed, and armed with knowledge without the Internet.

I have no doubt it saved his life.

My son is now 3, and is truly the happiest child you could care to meet.

STILL LATER: Jeff Jarvis picked up on the column and added:

In my book, I argue that – as with other apparent problems in industries – there is opportunity here. Doctors should act as curators, selecting the best information for their patients and making sure they are better informed.

Cyberchondria

Wow! Microsoft Research has just published a research study on what happens when people seek health information on the Web. Abstract:

The World Wide Web provides an abundant source of medical information. This information can assist people who are not healthcare professionals to better understand health and disease, and to provide them with feasible explanations for symptoms. However, the Web has the potential to increase the anxieties of people who have little or no medical training, especially when Web search is employed as a diagnostic procedure. We use the term cyberchondria to refer to the unfounded escalation of concerns about common symptomatology, based on the review of search results and literature on the Web. We performed a large-scale, longitudinal, log-based study of how people search for medical information online, supported by a large-scale survey of 515 individuals’ health-related search experiences. We focused on the extent to which common, likely innocuous symptoms can escalate into the review of content on serious, rare conditions that are linked to the common symptoms. Our results show that Web search engines have the potential to escalate medical concerns. We show that escalation is influenced by the amount and distribution of medical content viewed by users, the presence of escalatory terminology in pages visited, and a user’s predisposition to escalate versus to seek more reasonable explanations for ailments. We also demonstrate the persistence of post-session anxiety following escalations and the effect that such anxieties can have on interrupting user’s activities across multiple sessions. Our findings underscore the potential costs and challenges of cyberchondria and suggest actionable design implications that hold opportunity for improving the search and navigation experience for people turning to the Web to interpret common symptoms.

Photography: the next wave

This morning’s Observer column

Just over a month ago Canon launched the second generation of its full-frame camera, the EOS 5D Mk 2. This not only does traditional still photography, it also records HD video at 30 frames a second. I’ve seen footage shot with this camera and it’s stunning: high-definition movies shot with the low-light capability and optical quality only available on lenses that come with high-end still cameras.

This new camera obliterates the distinction between still photography and cinematography. The guys who sit on touchlines with long lenses will be able to produce not just action stills but video footage better than anything the TV cameras can capture. When billions of dollars rest on the distinction between photography and TV rights, you can imagine the implications.

Already there is talk that the new Canon camera will be banned from the 2012 Olympics because the TV companies won’t stand for it (after all, they pay nearly $1bn for the rights). And one day all photographs will be merely stills from a HD movie sequence…