The implications of infinite storage

Interesting post by Ed Felten…

Last week I spoke on a panel called “The Paradise of Infinite Storage”, at the “Pop [Music] and Policy” conference at McGill University in Montreal. The panel’s title referred to an interesting fact: sometime in the next decade, we’ll see a $100 device that fits in your pocket and holds all of the music ever recorded by humanity.

This is a simple consequence of Moore’s Law which, in one of its variants, holds that the amount of data storage available at a fixed size and price roughly doubles every eighteen months. Extrapolate that trend and, depending on your precise assumptions, you’ll find the magic date falls somewhere between 2011 and 2019. From then on, storage capacity might as well be infinite, at least as far as music is concerned.

This has at least two important consequences. First, it strains even further the economics of the traditional music business. The gap between the number of songs you might want to listen to, and the number you’re willing and able to pay a dollar each to buy, is growing ever wider. In a world of infinite storage you’ll be able to keep around a huge amount of music that is potentially interesting but not worth a dollar (or even a dime) to you yet. So why not pay a flat fee to buy access to everything?

Second, infinite storage will enable new ways of building filesharing technologies, which will be much harder for copyright owners to fight. For example, today’s filesharing systems typically have users search for a desired song by contacting strangers who might have the song, or who might have information about where the song can be found. Copyright owners’ technical attacks against filesharing often target this search feature, trying to disrupt it or to exploit the fact that it involves communication with strangers.

But in a world of infinite storage, no searching is needed…

The future of recorded music: an asymptotic decline to marginal cost

Interesting, if slightly utopian, column by Michael Arrington…

The economics of recorded music are fairly simple. Marginal production costs are zero: Like software, it doesn’t cost anything to produce another digital copy that is just as good as the original as soon as the first copy exists, and anyone can create those copies. Unless effective legal (copyright), technical (DRM) or other artificial impediments to production can be created, simple economic theory dictates that the price of music, like its marginal cost, must also fall to zero. The evidence is unmistakable already. In April 2007 the benchmark price for a DRM-free song was $1.29. Today it is $0.89, a drop of 31% in just six months.

P2P networks just exacerbate the problem (or opportunity) further, giving people a way to speed up the process of creating free copies almost to the point of being ridiculous. Today, a billion or so songs are downloaded monthly via BitTorrent, mostly illegally.

Eventually, unless governments are willing to take drastic measures to protect the industry (such as a mandatory music tax), economic theory will win out and the price of music will fall towards zero.

When the industry finally capitulates and realizes that they can no longer charge a meaningful amount of money for digital recorded music, a lot of good things can happen.

Hmmm…. I wonder.

iPhone Hackers 1: Apple 1

New York Times report today says that:

the Web was filled Friday with complaints from people who had installed the latest iPhone software update, only to see all the fun little programs they had been adding to their iPhones disappear — or, still worse, see their phones freeze up entirely.

It was bound to happen. The moral is that if you hack your iPhone you should forget about syncing it to your computer from then on.

Control freaks like Apple don’t give up easily.

But wait! — GMSV has more:

From the warranty right on through Steve Jobs explicit reminder (see “Jobs to iPhone hackers: Bring it on”), Apple has consistently warned iPhone buyers that if they choose to go off the reservation and modify their units to use third-party software or run on networks other than AT&T, they run the risk of their beautiful toy turning into a handsome skipping stone. Still, thousands took their chances, and sure enough, when Apple pushed through an iPhone update Thursday, there was soon wailing and lamentation throughout the land.

Unfortunately for Apple, at least some of that wailing was coming from owners who had not hacked or modified their iPhone, yet found it hobbled or bricked after the update. And the overall picture of which phones were hit, the damage and the chances of recovery is veiled in the fog of war. Depending on which unlocking hack was used, or not, the iPhone update may or may not brick your unit or cause data loss, and that damage may or may not be repairable by new hacks or perhaps by a sympathetic Apple Genius. What is clear is that even while acting within its rights, Apple has a messy little problem that is not going to go away any time soon.

Still more: Erick Schonfeld has advice for Apple — “Stop behaving like a phone company”…

As we all know by now, the latest software update to the iPhone may in some cases turn it into a useless brick—if you happen to have put hacked software on it or unlocked it (ahem, John) in order to make it work on a non-AT&T carrier (such as T-Mobile, in the U.S.). Apple, of course, is free to try to lock in customers to its partner AT&T and to control what software will work on the phone. That’s just the way the cell phone business works. Right? It’s all about customer lock-in and reducing churn.

But Steve Jobs might be better served here to take his own advice and think different. Because, as he has so elegantly demonstrated with the iPhone, these devices are finally becoming little computers. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that consumers will expect them to act like computers. They will want to modify them to their exact, quirky predilections. They will want to use them any way they want, as a general-purpose device.

That is why PCs took over the world. They could be tuned a million different ways to the needs of a million different customers. You don’t ask Apple permission to download software off the Web for your Mac. And you would never agree to buy a laptop that only worked with only one broadband provider. Why should the iPhone be any different?

The uproar today may be limited to hackers and the digerati. But soon everyone will want the same thing. And if they don’t get it from Apple. They may look somewhere else. Google Phone anyone?

All your iPhone are belong to us

From The Register

Apple has issued a notice that unlocked iPhones could suffer permanent damage when they update the firmware, and reminded customers that such damage is not covered by the warranty.

The process of unlocking an iPhone is complicated, and involves code running at a pretty low level in the OS. Users may feel confident that they can always re-flash their iPhones using iTunes, but even that requires a working kernel (minimal OS) on the phone – damage that and you’ve got a Jesus doorstop.

Such damage is unlikely. Far more probable is that every time an update is installed users of unlocked iPhones will have to unlock them again, but Apple felt the need to remind people of the risk they take when unlocking the handset or installing third-party applications.

Engineers inside O2, the UK operator deploying the iPhone in November, are under the impression that Apple will be able to re-lock phones to their network when they’re updated, but that will depend on the unlock process used and if Apple can be bothered to apply the resources needed to reverse it.

The assumption among many iPhone buyers seems to be that no matter what Apple does, the hackers will make everything work. The faith in techno-anarchism is touching, but may be misplaced if Apple just reverses everything with each update…

Footnote: readers puzzled by the grammatical infelicities in the headline are respectfully directed to here.

Harnessing collective IQ for reviewing patent applications

Interesting Technology Review report on “Opening Up the Patent Process”…

A new website called Peer-to-Patent intends to harness the power of online collaboration to streamline patent review. By creating a community around each application, the site facilitates public discussion and lets people upload relevant information. The United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) is currently involved in a limited trial of Peer-to-Patent, with the hope that it will bring openness and transparency to a review process that was previously limited to communication between the applicant and the examiner vetting the patent.

“There’s never been a bridge built between the information available in these expert communities and the government institutions that make these important policy decisions,” says Peer-to-Patent founder Beth Noveck. Noveck is a professor at New York Law School and the director of the school’s Institute for Information Law and Policy. She is also the director of the Democracy Design Workshop, which is running an experiment, called Do Tank, to encourage research into projects that foster community and encourage citizens to take action.

Peer-to-Patent could benefit an overloaded government organization. The USPTO faces mounting difficulties stemming from large numbers of patent applications of increasing complexity. According to the USPTO, 173,771 patent applications were approved in 2006. The government agency claims that it is currently backlogged with more than 800,000 patents. This means that new submissions have a pendency, or time from filing to first action, of up to 52 months…

You can have any gadget you like so long as it’s an iPod

This morning’s Observer column, which has items about Apple, YouTube and Facebook. Sample:

The release of the new iPod range provided an insight into the company’s technical strategy. At the top of the line is the iPod Touch, which looks, feels and operates like the new phone – except that it doesn’t make or receive calls. It is, as one wag put it, ‘a de-phoned iPhone’. A better way to put it is that the iPhone is an iPod that makes calls. The music player is at the heart of Apple’s technological strategy, which leads to the thought that the company’s next laptop will be an iPod masquerading as a tablet…

The real value of Fair Use

From InformationWeek

Fair use exceptions to U.S. copyright laws account for more than $4.5 trillion in annual revenue for the United States, according to a report issued on Wednesday by the Computer and Communications Industry Association.

“Much of the unprecedented economic growth of the past 10 years can actually be credited to the doctrine of fair use, as the Internet itself depends on the ability to use content in a limited and nonlicensed manner,” CCIA president and CEO Ed Black said in a statement. “To stay on the edge of innovation and productivity, we must keep fair use as one of the cornerstones for creativity, innovation, and, as today’s study indicates, an engine for growth for our country.”

By one measure — “value added,” which the report defines as “an industry’s gross output minus its purchased intermediate inputs” — the fair use economy is greater than the copyright economy.

Recent studies indicate that the value added to the U.S. economy by copyright industries amounts to $1.3 trillion, said Black. The value added to the U.S. economy by the fair use amounts to $2.2 trillion.

The fair use economy’s “value added” is thus almost 70% larger than that of the copyright industries…

The report is here.

Later: Alas, it’s not as good as it seems. Nick Carr has a good critical swipe at it:

There’s a little problem, though. Even by the woeful standards of the bespoke research industry, this study is a crock. It’s not just bad; it’s absurd. What the authors have done is to define the “fair-use economy” so broadly that it encompasses any business with even the most tangential relationship to the free use of copyrighted materials. Here’s an example of the tortured logic by which they force-fit vast, multifaceted industries into the “fair use” category: Because “recent advances in processing speed and software functionality are being used to take advantage of the richer multi-media experience now available from the web,” then the entire “computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing industry” qualifies as a “fair-use industry.” As does the entire “audio & video equipment manufacturing” business. And the entire software publishing industry. And the entire telecommunications industry. And – hey, why not? – the entire insurance industry. Stock markets and commodity exchanges? Sure, throw them in, too…

I’ve always thought that a more insightful comparison is between the economic value of the information technology industry and that of the media industry. In terms of size and economic importance the former dwarfs the latter — which is why it’s absurd for legislators to agree to measures that would allow the latter to determine the pace and nature of innovation in computing and networking. Fair Use is no doubt significant in economic terms, but its real importance is cultural. Unless our societies have free exchange of ideas, they’re dead.

Life’s getting tougher for patent trolls

Hooray! Good analysis by Scott Feldman of recent US Supreme Court decisions…

Filings of patent suits increased from 2,112 in 1997 to 2,830 in 2006. That does not take into account any increase in the number of defendants per filing. Between 2001 and 2005, the average cost of litigating a large case through trial jumped from $3 million to $4.5 million. How much of that jump is due to the increase in filings–and thus in demand for lawyers–is unknown. At several million dollars a case, plus the costs of settlement and of the many expensive patent opinions sought, the direct costs mount. Indirect costs do, too: companies feel obliged to practice “defensive patenting” to protect against infringement claims, and litigation can disrupt a company’s operations.

In three quick strokes, the Supreme Court has made things better. Though the recent rulings did not necessarily involve trolls, they will affect them. In eBay v. MercExchange, decided in May 2006, ­MercExchange sought an injunction shutting down much of eBay’s operations. Absent exceptional circumstances, courts used to presume that an injunction should be issued in any instance of patent infringement. But in this case, the Supremes instructed lower courts to apply what’s called a traditional test before entering injunctions. The test gives a trial court more discretion to deny injunctions, since the court must assess what is “fair.” Trolls can no longer count on getting injunctions, even if they win their cases.

In January 2007, the justices made it harder for trolls to wage licensing campaigns. Before, trolls could send letters to targeted companies, putting them on notice–and in so doing putting them at risk of being found “willful” infringers facing triple damages. Companies that wanted to remove that potential liability, however, could not themselves file suit to get a court to declare that they were not liable. Now, according to ­MedImmune v. Genentech, as interpreted by the Federal Circuit, a company receiving a letter referencing its activities and offering a patent license may file a lawsuit where it resides.

And in April, in KSR International v. Teleflex, the Supreme Court made it easier to find that a patent should not have been issued in the first place, or that it should be declared invalid once sued upon. In KSR, the patentee claimed a patent on the combination of a gas-pedal accelerator and a sensor. The Court found the combination obvious and the patent consequently invalid. The Supremes have reëmphasized that “obvious” inventions are not entitled to patent protection. District-court judges may now use common sense to determine whether a patent for a combination of existing technologies merits protection…

Who owns the Facebook idea?

Interesting piece in the New York Times. Facebook is being sued by the founders of ConnectU, who claim that Mark Zuckerberg nicked the idea from them.

The Winklevoss brothers and Divya Narenda, another ConnectU founder, contend that Facebook’s founder stole the idea from them. In a suit filed in 2004, the ConnectU founders accused Mr. Zuckerberg of lifting their site’s source code and business plan when he worked for ConnectU as an unpaid programmer. They are asking that Facebook’s assets be transferred to them.

Here are the facts that are not disputed: In 2002, when the Winklevoss brothers were juniors at Harvard, they conceived what was initially called the HarvardConnection, which was to be a social network for the college. In November 2003, they asked Mr. Zuckerberg, who was studying computer science at Harvard, to develop the site’s software and database, promising to compensate him later if the venture prospered.

Mr. Zuckerberg abandoned the project in February 2004, a month after registering the domain name thefacebook.com. By the end of that February, his new site, also a social network for Harvard, had registered half the college’s undergraduates. By April 2004, it had spread to other Ivy League schools.

Very quickly, Facebook expanded to serve other universities, then high schools, then organizations as varied as McDonald’s and the Marine Corps, and finally the general public. By contrast, ConnectU never really got started: it didn’t open until May 2004, and, overshadowed by what became, simply, Facebook, today it has no more than 70,000 registered users…

Sadly (for the brothers), there was no written contract. And, as lawyers say, documents win cases.