Inside an ‘exclusive’ Leica launch party

This is a truly fascinating report by Michael Zhang of PetaPixel of what it was like to be a guest at an ‘exclusive’ Leica Launch Party at Photokina.

Some weeks ago, I received an invitation from Leica for a special launch party they were planning to hold the day before Photokina 2012 opened. The event was titled LEICA – DAS WESENTLICHE, which translates to “The Essentials”. Aside from stating that there would be product premieres and “photographic and musical highlights”, the invitation did not reveal much else about the event, which went down this past Monday. Here’s a first-hand account of what it’s like to attend one of these Leica parties.

It’s an excellent piece of detached reporting which conveys very well the nauseating ambience of the event. But what really brought me up short was this picture:

Mr Zhang didn’t recognise the couple, and nor did I. But it turns out that the woman is Phan Thi Kim Phuc and the man is Nick Ut, the `Pulitzer-winning AP photographer who took the famous photograph of her as a terrified, naked young girl fleeing across a bridge in Vietnam after a napalm attack.

I’m not entirely sure why, but the discovery that Leica were using the pair of them in this way makes me feel decidedly queasy. But then I loathe these corporate events anyway.

Afghanistan, noun: Quagmire

I’ve been ranting on for a while (see here and here, for example) against the cant being talked by our politicians about Western involvement in Afghanistan. I cannot fathom why any sentient being could believe what they are telling us about what’s happening on that North West Frontier. The New Yorker‘s Dexter Filkin has been exceedingly perceptive about this for as long as I can remember. His latest piece continues that honourable tradition.

We can’t win the war in Afghanistan, so what do we do? We’ll train the Afghans to do it for us, then claim victory and head for the exits.

But what happens if we can’t train the Afghans?

We’re about to find out. It’s difficult to overstate just how calamitous the decision, announced Tuesday, to suspend most joint combat patrols between Afghan soldiers and their American and NATO mentors is. Preparing the Afghan Army and police to fight without us is the foundation of the Obama Administration’s strategy to withdraw most American forces—and have them stop fighting entirely—by the end of 2014. It’s our ticket home. As I outlined in a piece earlier this year, President Obama’s strategy amounts to an enormous gamble, and one that hasn’t, so far, shown a lot of promise. That makes this latest move all the more disastrous. We’re running out of time.

Nope. We have run out of time. But even if we had a century it wouldn’t have worked.

Nipplegate

It seems that the New Yorker got temporarily banned from Facebook for violating their community standards on “Nudity and Sex,” by posting a Mick Stevens cartoon showing a post-coital Adam and Eve. Here’s a snapshot of the relevant section of the aforementioned guidelines:

Reassuring to know that male nipples are ok, isn’t it?

Broken Windows and the iPhone 5

It’s not every day when one finds Paul Krugman writing about technology, but here he is today on the strange theory that the iPhone 5 (out tomorrow, for those who have been vacationing on Mars) might give a boost to the US economy:

I can’t judge how plausible the sales estimates are; but it’s worth pointing out how the economic logic of this suggestion relates to the larger picture.

The key point is that the optimism about the iPhone’s effects has nothing (or at any rate not much) to do with the presumed quality of the phone, and the ways in which it might make us happier or more productive. Instead, the immediate gains would come from the way the new phone would get people to junk their old phones and replace them.

In other words, if you believe that the iPhone really might give the economy a big boost, you have — whether you realize it or not — bought into a version of the “broken windows” theory, in which destroying some capital can actually be a good thing under depression conditions.

Of course, it’s nice that the reason we’re junking old capital is to make room for something better, not just for the hell of it. But you know what would also be nice? Building useful stuff like infrastructure employing labor and cash that would otherwise sit idle.

Voyager 1 Turns 35

From The Atlantic.

Thirty-five years ago, NASA launched a spacecraft known as Voyager 1 into the skies over Florida. That space-traveling appliance has now traveled farther than any other man-made device — some 11.3 billion miles or 121 times the distance between Earth and the sun. It is now hurtling through the boundary of our heliosphere (the farthest reaches of our sun’s winds) at a speed of 38,000 miles per hour. Soon, nobody quite knows when, it will break into interstellar space, the first creation of life here on Earth to do so.

Puts things into perspective.

So is Harvard proud of Fergie?

Lovely evisceration by James Fallows of Niall Ferguson’s ludicrous attack on Obama.

Three years ago, I got crosswise of Niall Ferguson when I noted his remark that President Obama reminded him of Felix the Cat. Like Obama, Ferguson observed, “Felix was not only black. He was also very, very lucky.” A little earlier I had a testy on-stage exchange with him about the United States and China. He said that U.S. budget deficits would lead to the certain collapse of the U.S.-China relationship, since China would cut off further credit to the spendthrift Yanks. I said that might sound like a neat theory but reflected no awareness of actual Chinese incentives and behavior, and that the showdown he considered “inevitable” in fact would not occur. As it has not.

Again, anyone can be wrong, and I often have been. But scholars are supposed to be different from mere pamphleteers and journalists. We give the judgments of academics — like those of doctors, scientists, renowned jurists, etc. — extra weight because we assume that scholars have considered evidence, precedent, and probabilities more carefully before offering conclusions. Think: E.O. Wilson on ants and ecological patterns.

The big claims and conclusions Ferguson has offered in recent years, with the extra authority of his academic standing, have been attention-getting and mostly wrong. Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider has an analysis here (and please also see this from Noah Smith). For instance:

– U.S. budget deficits were going to lead to a US-China breakup. They didn’t.

– U.S. budget deficits were going to drive bond rates sky high. The opposite has occurred.

– U.S. budget deficits would make us like Greece. They have not.

– A year ago, Ferguson warned that we were on the verge of a damaging new round of inflation. We were not.

You can say these things if you’re a talk-show host or a combatant on some cable-news gabfest. To me this is not what the tradition of Veritas and the search for scholarly enlightenment is supposed to exemplify. Seriously, I wonder if one of Ferguson’s students will have the panache to turn in a similar paper to see how it fares.

Spot on. I can’t understand why anyone takes Ferguson seriously. Like many an historian before him, he has become a media whore. As Daniel Pat Moynihan famously observed, everyone is entitled to his own opinions, but not to his own facts. If Ferguson were a Fox News commentator then nobody would turn a hair. But — as Fallows observes — he’s trading on the credibility derived from occupying a Chair at a major university. If I were a Harvard academic I’d say he has now got to the point where he is bringing the university into disrepute.

Assangian warped logic

This Guardian editorial nails it IMHO.

It is to avoid questioning by Swedish prosecutors that Mr Assange battled extradition orders for almost 18 months with the best legal representation money can buy – before finally jumping bail two months ago. It is to avoid being confronted with accusations of rape and sexual assault that Mr Assange is now holed up in the Ecuadorean embassy – and was forced to say his piece from a diplomat’s first-floor balcony, for fear of otherwise being collared by the police. Yet to listen to the speechifying from his supporters, you would never have guessed at any of this; their remarks concerned western Europe’s “neocon juntas” or the political change sweeping Latin America. And when it was Mr Assange’s turn to speak, he allied his struggle with Russian punk protesters Pussy Riot, with the New York Times, and indeed “the revolutionary values” upon which America was founded. This is his traditional method of argument: to conflate a number of causes – big and small, international and individual – into one, so that Mr Assange is WikiLeaks, which is freedom of speech, which holds powerful states to account; and so on, ever upwards. Yet Mr Assange is not facing a show trial over the journalism of WikiLeaks; he is dodging allegations of rape. To confuse the two does no favours to the organisation he created, which has done so much excellent work.

Sensation! Experts find that increased prices reduce demand!

From today’s Guardian:

The increase in tuition fees to a maximum of £9,000 a year has led to a “clear drop” in the number of English students applying for university places this autumn, an independent analysis of the impact of the coalition’s controversial reform has found.

There are 15,000 “missing” applicants who might have been expected to have sought a place on a degree course this academic year but did not, according to the Independent Commission on Fees.

Well, you don’t say.

Who will choose the next US President?

Answer: a very small number of American citizens, most of whom are uninterested in politics. Startling New Yorker piece by Elizabeth Kolbert.

According to a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, just six per cent of Americans—or less than one-sixteenth of the electorate—think there’s a good chance that they will change their minds about the Presidential race before November. Only nineteen per cent of those polled said there was any chance they’d change their minds. For comparison’s sake, at a similar point in the 2008 election cycle, ten per cent of Americans said they were undecided, and twenty-five per cent said there was a chance they’d switch their choice. Former Clinton adviser Paul Begala recently noted in Newsweek that when you factor out the undecideds in securely red or blue states (since their votes won’t change the Electoral College results), the election comes down to “around 4 percent of the voters in six states.”

“I did the math so you won’t have to,” Begala continued. “Four percent of the presidential vote in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado is 916,643 people. That’s it. The American president will be selected by fewer than half the number of people who paid to get into a Houston Astros home game last year.”