Worried about super-intelligent machines? They’re already here

This morning’s Observer column:

But for anyone who thinks that living in a world dominated by super-intelligent machines is a “not in my lifetime” prospect, here’s a salutary thought: we already live in such a world! The AIs in question are called corporations. They are definitely super-intelligent, in that the collective IQ of the humans they employ dwarfs that of ordinary people and, indeed, often of governments. They have immense wealth and resources. Their lifespans greatly exceed that of mere humans. And they exist to achieve one overriding objective: to increase and thereby maximise shareholder value. In order to achieve that they will relentlessly do whatever it takes, regardless of ethical considerations, collateral damage to society, democracy or the planet.

One such super-intelligent machine is called Facebook. And here to illustrate that last point is an unambiguous statement of its overriding objective written by one of its most senior executives, Andrew Bosworth, on 18 June 2016…

Read on

Friday 24 December, 2021

The World Wide Cobweb

A present from Christmas past, when my kids were young.


Quote of the Day

”One of the problems with defending free speech is you often have to defend people that you find to be outrageous and unpleasant and disgusting.

  • Salman Rushdie

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

J.S. Bach | Christmas Oratorio, BWV 248 / Part One | For The First Day Of Christmas – No. 4.

Link


Long Read of the Day

Buy a coal mine, drive a gas guzzler, and other uses of reverse logic

Lovely essay by Tim Hartford:

Readers with long memories may recall the brief, inglorious UK fuel shortage of a few weeks ago, which was mostly caused by the rush to refuel for fear the pumps would run dry. Some petrol stations imposed a limit on how much you could buy — say, £25 of fuel and no more. It seems sensible enough, but a friend of mine (an economist) suggested this was the opposite of what was really needed. A maximum purchase encouraged more visits and more queues. Instead, petrol stations should’ve imposed a minimum purchase: nobody was allowed to buy fuel if their tank was more than a quarter full.

One can imagine snags and problems with implementing this rule, but the principle is delightfully elegant. Queues would disappear, as only people who actually needed fuel would be allowed to buy it. The self-fulfilling shortage would disappear. The solution is not to demand that drivers buy less fuel, but to insist they buy more.

All this set me wondering about other problems we could fix by reversing the usual logic and doing the exact opposite of what one might expect…


Is Omicron the beginning of the end, or merely the end of the beginning?

When Omicron arrived and its high transmissibility was realised I had a wicked thought: could this be the variant that gets societies to herd immunity? After all, if it spreads very quickly, but is relatively less severe for most ‘infectees’, might that not mean that — without anyone planning it — we might achieve a meaningful level of collective immunity. And having thought that, I immediately squashed the idea: after all, even if only a tiny proportion of those who catch Omicron has to be hospitalised, health services (already battered and exhausted by two years of non-stop crisis) might well be overwhelmed.

Yascha Mounk’s take on it seems to be heading in the same direction, though.

Muddy early data mean that, for now at least, the immediate epidemiological future is uncertain. We could be in for a few months of relatively mild inconvenience before Omicron goes out with a whimper. Or we could be about to experience yet another exponential rise in hospitalizations and deaths.

And yet I wager that, whatever course Omicron—or future strains of the disease—might take, we are about to experience the end of the pandemic as a social phenomenon…

His argument is that, whatever the dangers of the new variant, citizens of democracies have had enough.

The appetite for shutdowns or other large-scale social interventions simply isn’t there. This means that we have effectively given up on “slowing the spread” or “flattening the curve.” To a much greater degree than during previous waves, we have quietly decided to throw up our hands…serious restrictions like shutdowns are now thinkable only if we get into a situation in which the emergency is already plain for all to see.

Of course Mounk is only writing about the US, which has its own dysfunctional politics; but I wonder if lockdown exhaustion will be a big thing over here.


Christopher Locke, Rage in Peace

A remarkable firebrand of the early Web has passed away. Impossible to summarise his astonishingly varied career — except maybe by saying that he did to online marketing what Hunter S. Thompson did to journalism. Doc Searls (Whom God Preserve), knew him well and was one of his co-authors of The Cluetrain Manifesto, and has written a lovely obituary. And if you want an impression of what Locke was like, see his Mystic Bourgeoisie blog which he maintained from 2005 to 2014.

As we say in Irish, Ní bheidh a leithéad arís an. We shall not see his like again.


Trouble in SUVland

The IEA has an interesting paper on the environmental impact of SUVs. It says that these absurd vehicles are on course to account for more than 45% of current global car sales – setting a new record in terms of both volume and market share. Sales of the monsters “continues to be robust” in many countries, including the US, India and across Europe. The only good news seems to come from China, where the proliferation of SUVs is stagnating, mainly because of rising demand for small EVs.

The report has a nice payoff line:

If SUVs were an individual country, they would rank sixth in the world for absolute emissions in 2021, emitting over 900 million tonnes of CO2.


My commonplace book

 New submarine cable to link Japan, Europe, through famed Northwest Passage

Link

More interesting than you think. Read 2034: A Novel of the Next World War to get the idea.


Thursday 23 December, 2021

Parallel reflections

On a country walk late yesterday afternoon we came on a pair of cygnets dabbling in a small lake. After a while, one of them began to swim away. As I watched him move into open water, I suddenly noticed the silhouette of the submerged curved branch in the background and took several shots trying to catch what Henri Cartier-Bresson famously called ‘the decisive moment’ — and then got this.

In a way, dear old HCB has a lot to answer for. Millions of photographers are forever looking for a way of capturing one of those moments. And mostly not finding them — so when it happens it’s worth celebrating.


Quote of the Day

A poem for Boris

I could not dig:
I dared not rob:
Therefore I lied to please the mob.
Now all my lies are proved untrue
And I must face the men I slew.
What tale shall serve me here among
Mine angry and defrauded young?

  • ‘A Dead Statesman’, Rudyard Kipling (from ‘Epitaphs of the War 1914-18’). Chosen by Alan Bennett in his 2021 Diary in the London Review of Books.

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Gustav Holst | In the bleak midwinter

Link

My favourite Christmas carol.


Long Read of the Day

 This Scientist Created a Rapid Test Just Weeks Into the Pandemic. Here’s Why You Still Can’t Get It.

Yesterday I went to three pharmacies to try and get some more of the lateral-flow Covid test kits that the UK government says are an essential tool for families and workers trying to be careful about catching or passing on Covid over Christmas. None of the pharmacies had any supplies. They’d run out after the (predictable) surge in demand after the government had started recommending them in the run-up to the festive season.

This dearth will probably be rectified soon. It’s a reminder of why this Christmas feels so different from 2020. Then, we didn’t have any vaccines. And we didn’t have many DIY test kits either.

One reason why this terrific ProPublica story by Lydia DePillis is so interesting is that it reveals that the US could have had something like a lateral-flow test at the very beginning of the pandemic. Way back in early 2020, a Harvard-trained scientist named Irene Bosch developed a quick, inexpensive COVID-19 test. She already had a factory set up to manufacture it for $10 a shot. On March 21, 2020 — when the U.S. had recorded only a few hundred COVID-19 deaths — she submitted her test for emergency authorisation, a process that the Food and Drug Administration uses to expedite tests and treatments. But the go-ahead never came.

How did this happen? Well, as you might expect, it’s a long story. And it’s worth a read.


Chart of the Day

Why immigrants are important

One reason is that more of them start businesses than citizens of their host nations. These are the figures for the US. Wonder what they’re like for, say, the UK.


Stuart Russell’s Reith Lectures: ‘Living with Artificial Intelligence’

They’re terrific. And available on the BBC Sounds app and via the website. And if you’re too busy to listen, why not download the transcripts — also from the website?


Remembering Christopher Hitchens

Hitchens died ten years ago this month and there have been a number of nice essays by writers and journalists who knew and admired him. This one by Graydon Carter, who was Editor of Vanity Fair from 1992 to 2017, is the latest to come my way, and it’s lovely:

If you ever had the good fortune to spend time with Christopher, as I did over long lunches and even longer dinners, you would have been an audience to one of the more spectacular minds in recent history. There was nothing Christopher hadn’t read and couldn’t recall from memory. Late into the night and well into his cups, he could recite Gussie Fink-Nottle’s prize-giving speech at Market Snodsbury Grammar School—and precisely the way P. G. Wodehouse wrote it. Like all sane people, he considered Wodehouse the greatest practitioner of the English language.

I was often annoyed by Hitchens, but generally mesmerised by his prose, and so as a way of personally marking his passing I started to read my way through the archive of things he wrote for the London Review of Books. It’s an eye-opener.

A good test of a writer is when he or she tackles something that you think you know about and wind up seeing it in a completely different light when you’ve finished the piece. A instructive example in this context is his review of Michael Ignatieff’s biography of Isaiah Berlin, which I thought was terrific because it helped me finally to understand why so many people whom I took seriously seemed to be in awe of Berlin. But Hitchens saw through him, and yet wasn’t vindictive.

The anecdotal is inescapable here, and I see no reason to be deprived of my portion. I first met Berlin in 1967, around the time of his Bundy/Alsop pact, when I was a fairly tremulous secretary of the Oxford University Labour Club. He’d agreed to talk on Marx, and to be given dinner at the Union beforehand, and he was the very picture of patient, non-condescending charm. Uncomplainingly eating the terrible food we offered him, he awarded imaginary Marx marks to the old Russophobe, making the assumption that he would have been a PPE student. (‘A beta-alpha for economics – no, I rather think a beta – but an alpha, definitely an alpha for politics.’) He gave his personal reasons for opposing Marxism (‘I saw the revolution in St Petersburg, and it quite cured me for life. Cured me for life’) and I remember thinking that I’d never before met anyone who had a real-time memory of 1917. Ignatieff slightly harshly says that Berlin was ‘no wit, and no epigrams have attached themselves to his name’, but when he said, ‘Kerensky, yes, Kerensky – I think we have to say one of the great wets of history,’ our laughter was unforced. The subsequent talk to the club was a bit medium-pace and up-and-down the wicket, because you can only really maintain that Marx was a determinist or inevitabilist if you do a lot of eliding between sufficient and necessary conditions. But I was thrilled to think that he’d made himself vulnerable to such unlicked cubs. A term or two later, at a cocktail party given by my tutor, he remembered our dinner, remembered my name without making a patronising show of it, and stayed to tell a good story about Christopher Hill and John Sparrow, and of how he’d been the unwitting agent of a quarrel between them, while ignoring an ambitious and possessive American professor who kept yelling ‘Eye-zay-ah! Eye-zay-ah!’ from across the room. (‘Yes,’ he murmured at the conclusion of the story. ‘After that I’m afraid Christopher rather gave me up. Gave me up for the Party.’)

Many years later, reviewing Personal Impressions for the New Statesman, I mentioned the old story of Berlin acting as an academic gatekeeper, and barring the appointment of Isaac Deutscher to a chair at Sussex University. This denial had the sad effect of forcing Deutscher – who had once given Berlin a highly scornful review in the Observer – to churn out Kremlinology for a living: as a result of which he never finished his triad or troika of Stalin, Trotsky and Lenin biographies. In the next post came a letter from Berlin, stating with some anguish that while he didn’t much approve of Deutscher, his opinion had not been the deciding one. I telephoned Tamara Deutscher and others, asking if they had definite proof that Berlin had administered the bare bodkin, and was told, well, no, not definite proof. So I published a retraction. Then came a postcard from Berlin, thanking me handsomely, saying that the allegation had always worried and upset him, and asking if he wasn’t correct in thinking that he had once succeeded more in attracting me to Marxism than in repelling me from it. I was – I admit it – impressed. And now I read, in Ignatieff’s book, that it was an annihilatingly hostile letter from Berlin to the Vice-Chancellor of Sussex University which ‘put paid to Deutscher’s chances’. The fox is crafty, we know, and the hedgehog is a spiky customer, and Ignatieff proposes that the foxy Berlin always harboured the wish to metamorphose into a hedgehog. All I know is that I was once told – even assured of – one small thing.

Carter’s tribute is gracious and affectionate, without being smarmy. This is how it finishes:

Christopher was also a spirited defender of free speech, whether it came out of the mouths of monsters or political idiots on the right or the left. His across-the-board defense often made people uncomfortable back in the day. I’m not sure he’d survive the current cancel-culture mobs—let alone the op-ed page of The New York Times. That very fearlessness would be his undoing if he were on the speaking-circuit prowl today.

One thing I do believe: The Christopher Hitchens I knew and adored wouldn’t be like the majority of us, huddling in our trembling silence, terrified of saying what we really think, and shaking our heads in the belief that the world has gone mad and the other side is the one destroying America. Christopher would be out there on the front lines. I just wish I knew which front lines he’d be on.


My commonplace booklet

Ten Things to Say Instead of “No Thanks, I Don’t Drink”

Useful advice for the office party season from Lindsey Adams.


This Blog is also available as a daily email. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email a day, Monday through Friday, delivered to your inbox. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


 

Wednesday 22 December, 2021

That’s the spirit!

Brighton, May 2017


Quote

“Adventure is just bad planning”

  • Roald Amundsen

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Jimmy Yancey | At the Window

Link

Simple, beautiful and one of my favourite piano tunes.


Long Read of the Day

Why it’s too early to get excited about Web3

This essay by Tim O’Reilly is the best thing I’ve seen so far about the breathless speculation of What’s Next in tech. Tim was the guy who coined the phrase ‘Web 2.0’ five years after the burst of the first Internet bubble. Now he’s turned his attention to the hype about crypto and blockchain as the next iteration of the Net.

Crypto enthusiast Sal Delle Palme puts it even more boldly:

“We’re witnessing the birth of a new economic system. Its features and tenets are just now being devised and refined in transparent ways by millions of people around the world. Everyone is welcome to participate.”

“I love the idealism of the Web3 vision”, writes Tim, “but we’ve been there before”.

We sure have, and this is a great overview.

He draws heavily on Carlota Perez’s Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, particularly her view that a true technology revolution must be accompanied by the development of substantial new infrastructure. Which gives O’Reilly the important question to ask about Web3 boosterism. If it is a genuine revolution what will it leave behind ?

I realise that this stuff is an acquired taste for those of us who try to understand the tech industry. But if that’s what floats your boat, you’ll want to read the essay.


Search engines and conspiracy theories

This looks interesting:

Abstract: Web search engines are important online information intermediaries that are frequently used and highly trusted by the public despite multiple evidence of their outputs being subjected to inaccuracies and biases. One form of such inaccuracy, which so far received little scholarly attention, is the presence of conspiratorial information, namely pages promoting conspiracy theories. We address this gap by conducting a comparative algorithm audit to examine the distribution of conspiratorial information in search results across five search engines: Google, Bing, DuckDuckGo, Yahoo and Yandex. Using a virtual agent-based infrastructure, we systematically collect search outputs for six conspiracy theory-related queries (“flat earth”, “new world order”, “qanon”, “9/11”, “illuminati”, “george soros”) across three locations (two in the US and one in the UK) and two observation periods (March and May 2021). We find that all search engines except Google consistently displayed conspiracy-promoting results and returned links to conspiracy-dedicated websites in their top results, although the share of such content varied across queries. Most conspiracy-promoting results came from social media and conspiracy-dedicated websites while conspiracy-debunking information was shared by scientific websites and, to a lesser extent, legacy media. The fact that these observations are consistent across different locations and time periods highlight the possibility of some search engines systematically prioritizing conspiracy-promoting content and, thus, amplifying their distribution in the online environments.

The intriguing thing is how much better Google seems. Which is annoying for those of us who generally use a non-tracking search engine.


My commonplace booklet

  • The Chrysler Turbo Encabulator. A truly wonderful spoof video. To my astonishment, Chrysler still exists. (H/T to Ben Evans)

  • Ginsberg, Didion, Sontag: Inside the Apartments of New York City Literary Legends, c. 1995 Link


This Blog is also available as a daily email. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email a day, Monday through Friday, delivered to your inbox. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


Tuesday 21 December, 2021

My sceptical friend

When I joined him on the floor of my study a few years ago, he gave me a suitably quizzical look. He’s now a strapping young lad, but still, I hope, sceptical.


Quote of the Day

”If you decided to come back, that choice is yours. But I can tell you it won’t be viewed as for your own safety. The safest practice is to stay exactly where you are. If you decide to return with your packages, it will be viewed as you refusing your route, which will ultimately end with you not having a job come tomorrow morning. The sirens are just a warning.”

  • Text from an Amazon manager to a delivery driver after the driver suggested she return to base for her own safety as a tornado ripped through the area. (Source: Bloomberg).

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Edvard Grieg | Wedding Day at Troldhaugen Op.65 No.6

Link

I’ve often heard this piece but didn’t know (until today) that it was by Grieg. And it makes one think that it must have been an interesting wedding!


Long Read of the Day

There is no ‘Them’

An entertaining but ultimately implausible protest by Antonio García Martínez against the ‘othering’ of West Coast tech billionaires by US East Coast elites.

Thus was I sitting at a very well-appointed and welcoming shabbat dinner table this past Friday. The specific host family and guests are not directly relevant, other than to mention these are extremely media savvy people who in fact make a living in The Spectacle (much as I do) and are by no means the ‘normies’ that techies often dismissively cite.

The conversation was wide-ranging and generally warm…until we got to the topic of technology, and I suddenly felt as I did in the late 90s when backpacking around Europe. Cut to scene at a youth hostel in Belfast or Brindisi, and I was the lone representative of a hegemonic entity that had defined and marked everyone’s lives, and I had a lot to answer for. In the case of backpacker me, it was the United States of America and its assumed depredations throughout the world; in the case of shabbat guest me, it was me as emissary (and, worse!, defender) of ‘Big Tech’ which has wrought so much turbulence in our lives.

In the same way that the hostel scenes possessed their own ironies that still gleam in distant memory—one Spanish dude who was letting me have it about evil America was literally wearing blue jeans and eating McDonald’s—this scene also had its odd juxtapositions…

Like everything he writes, it’s sparky and readable.

Thanks to Charles Arthur for spotting it.


Christmas Books – 3

 

This is an extraordinary book which I read (and reviewed) when it first came out in 2019, but have been re-reading recently because its author is this year’s Reith Lecturer. So you could view his book as the extensive background reading for the ideas that he has distilled into the four lectures of the series.

What makes it remarkable is that Russell is one of the most distinguished figures in the field of artificial intelligence — among other things he’s the co-author (with Peter Norvik) of what is still a canonical textbook of the field — who also believes that his discipline is incubating an existential threat to our species.


The slow death of democracy in America

It’s like watching a car crash in slow motion. Larry Lessig (Whom God Preserve) is the latest scholar to chronicle and explain what’s happening. He has a long and depressing essay in the current edition of the New York Review of Books which I fear may be behind their paywall. If it is, here’s his conclusion:

For most of this year, President Biden defended the filibuster and stood practically silent on this critical reform. He has focused not on the crumbling critical infrastructure of American democracy, but on the benefits of better bridges and faster Internet. Democratic progressives in Congress were little better on this question. Although Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren all supported the For the People Act, in the public eye the issues they’ve championed have overlooked the country’s broken democratic machinery: forgive student debt, raise the minimum wage, give us a Green New Deal…. As a progressive myself, I love all these ideas, but none of them are possible unless we end the corruption that has destroyed this democracy. None of them will happen until we fix democracy first.

It may well be that nothing could have been done this year. It may well be true that nothing Biden could say or do would move Senators Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema, the two who are apparently blocking reform just now. Yet we have to frame the stakes accurately and clearly: if we do not “confront” those “imperfections” in our democracy, “openly and transparently,” in the State Department’s words, we will lose this democracy. And no summit will bring it back.

I’ve known and admired Larry since the 1990s, and will never forget the sombre telephone conversation he and I had in 2000 just after the Supreme Court had given the Presidency to George W. Bush. His 2011 book,  Republic, Lost: How Money Corrupts Congress – and a Plan to Stop It was a prescient warning of the dangers ahead, and things have got steadily worse since it was published.


This Blog is also available as a daily email. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email a day, Monday through Friday, delivered to your inbox. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


 

Monday 20 December, 2021

Knitgear

Seen in a lovely knitting shop in Riga.


Quote of the Day

”It’s like the world’s worst advent calendar. Every day we open the door and there’s another crisis.”

  • Unnamed Tory MP talking to the Financial Times, 17 December, 2021

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Chuck Berry With Bruce Springsteen & The E Street Band | Johnny B. Goode

Link

If this isn’t fabulous, then I don’t know what is.


Long Read of the Day

 Can Big Tech Serve Democracy?

A terrific review essay in the Boston Review by Henry Farrell and Glen Weyl, about technology and the fate of democracy. Sobering, very well-informed and beautifully written. Can I say more?


Re-using computer code has its downsides

Yesterday’s Observer column:

In one of those delicious coincidences that warm the cockles of every tech columnist’s heart, in the same week that the entire internet community was scrambling to patch a glaring vulnerability that affects countless millions of web servers across the world, the UK government announced a grand new National Cyber Security Strategy that, even if actually implemented, would have been largely irrelevant to the crisis at hand.

Initially, it looked like a prank in the amazingly popular Minecraft game. If someone inserted an apparently meaningless string of characters into a conversation in the game’s chat, it would have the effect of taking over the server on which it was running and download some malware that could then have the capacity to do all kinds of nefarious things. Since Minecraft (now owned by Microsoft) is the best-selling video game of all time (more than 238m copies sold and 140 million monthly active users), this vulnerability was obviously worrying, but hey, it’s only a video game…

This slightly comforting thought was exploded on 9 December by a tweet from Chen Zhaojun of Alibaba’s Cloud Security Team.…

Read on

LATER This is huge problem and the computing world is nowhere near getting on top of it yet, as this sobering assessment points out.


Johnson’s slow-motion disintegration

Being Prime Minister of the UK is a pretty demanding job. One can see its effect etched in the rapid ageing faces of those who have held the post. And we can already see this in the current incumbent, who obviously didn’t realise that the job included doing some actual work. Here are two photographs of him from a few days ago, one from Sky News, the other from the BBC which make the point:

But the really interesting evidence of his disintegration came last week in his big speech to the Confederation of British Industry — the bosses’ trade union — in which he suddenly started raving about the Peppa Pig theme park as a sign of British creativity. It’s almost cruel to watch it, but — Hey! — it’s Christmas. Give it a go. Here’s the link.


Has Francis Fukuyama lost the plot?

Sounds like an impertinent question but I’ve been re-reading Louis Menand’s demolition job on Francis Fukuyama’s attempt to use identity as the new general theory of everything. Here’s the nub of Menand’s critique:

Twenty-nine years later, it seems that the realists haven’t gone anywhere, and that history has a few more tricks up its sleeve. It turns out that liberal democracy and free trade may actually be rather fragile achievements. (Consumerism appears safe for now.) There is something out there that doesn’t like liberalism, and is making trouble for the survival of its institutions.

Fukuyama thinks he knows what that something is, and his answer is summed up in the title of his new book, “Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment” (Farrar, Straus & Giroux). The demand for recognition, Fukuyama says, is the “master concept” that explains all the contemporary dissatisfactions with the global liberal order: Vladimir Putin, Osama bin Laden, Xi Jinping, Black Lives Matter, #MeToo, gay marriage, isis, Brexit, resurgent European nationalisms, anti-immigration political movements, campus identity politics, and the election of Donald Trump. It also explains the Protestant Reformation, the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, Chinese Communism, the civil-rights movement, the women’s movement, multiculturalism, and the thought of Luther, Rousseau, Kant, Nietzsche, Freud, and Simone de Beauvoir. Oh, and the whole business begins with Plato’s Republic. Fukuyama covers all of this in less than two hundred pages. How does he do it?

Not well. Some of the problem comes from misunderstanding figures like Beauvoir and Freud; some comes from reducing the work of complex writers like Rousseau and Nietzsche to a single philosophical bullet point. A lot comes from the astonishingly blasé assumption—which was also the astonishingly blasé assumption of “The End of History?”—that Western thought is universal thought. But the whole project, trying to fit Vladimir Putin into the same analytic paradigm as Black Lives Matter and tracing them both back to Martin Luther, is far-fetched. It’s a case of Great Booksism: history as a chain of paper dolls cut out of books that only a tiny fraction of human beings have even heard of. Fukuyama is a smart man, but no one could have made this argument work.

My hunch is this book was a mistake. I say this as someone who has loved some of Fukuyama’s earlier work. I remember being blown away by the original ‘End of history?’ essay, for example, maybe because of the excitement of the 1989 Zeitgeist and discontinuities in my personal life at the time. And I learned a lot from those two seminal books of his on the quest for order and its subsequent decay. I’m also impressed by the fact that he’s a good photographer and a bit of a geek — as one can see from the server-rack that is his home-computing setup. I like people who can straddle the two cultures.


Christmas Books – 2

Charles Arthur’s Social Warming: The dangerous and polarising effects of social media is the best book I’ve seen on the global impact of the business model that fuels Facebook, Google, Twitter & Co. The implicit metaphor in the title — that the way social media superheats the public sphere on which democracy depends mirrors the way that burning fossil fuels warms the biosphere — provides a brilliant way of thinking about the industry.

As someone who follows, and writes about, tech I often forget that there’s a lot of history and background that I take for granted — and then I run into non-tech-savvy people and realise they have no idea about how social-media feeds are algorithmically curated, say, or why many people in the global South are unaware that Facebook is not the Internet. But then I think: how could they have known? After all, mainstream media doesn’t do a good job of explaining it. And social-media definitely have no incentive to do it. Now, instead of having to do impromptu explanations, I can just point them to Charles’s book — which is why I can’t wait for the paperback version to come out.


My commonplace booklet

Alec Guinness has always been one of my favourite actors. This clip from an interview he did with Michael Parkinson might explain why.


This Blog is also available as a daily email. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email a day, Monday through Friday, delivered to your inbox. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already! 


Re-using code has its downsides

This morning’s Observer column:

In one of those delicious coincidences that warm the cockles of every tech columnist’s heart, in the same week that the entire internet community was scrambling to patch a glaring vulnerability that affects countless millions of web servers across the world, the UK government announced a grand new National Cyber Security Strategy that, even if actually implemented, would have been largely irrelevant to the crisis at hand.

Initially, it looked like a prank in the amazingly popular Minecraft game. If someone inserted an apparently meaningless string of characters into a conversation in the game’s chat, it would have the effect of taking over the server on which it was running and download some malware that could then have the capacity to do all kinds of nefarious things. Since Minecraft (now owned by Microsoft) is the best-selling video game of all time (more than 238m copies sold and 140 million monthly active users), this vulnerability was obviously worrying, but hey, it’s only a video game…

This slightly comforting thought was exploded on 9 December by a tweet from Chen Zhaojun of Alibaba’s Cloud Security Team.…

Read on

The slow death of democracy in America

It’s like watching a car crash in slow motion. Larry Lessig (Whom God Preserve) is the latest scholar to chronicle and explain what’s happening. He has a long and depressing essay in the current edition of the New York Review of Books which I fear may be behind their paywall. If it is, here’s his conclusion:

For most of this year, President Biden defended the filibuster and stood practically silent on this critical reform. He has focused not on the crumbling critical infrastructure of American democracy, but on the benefits of better bridges and faster Internet. Democratic progressives in Congress were little better on this question. Although Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren all supported the For the People Act, in the public eye the issues they’ve championed have overlooked the country’s broken democratic machinery: forgive student debt, raise the minimum wage, give us a Green New Deal…. As a progressive myself, I love all these ideas, but none of them are possible unless we end the corruption that has destroyed this democracy. None of them will happen until we fix democracy first. 

It may well be that nothing could have been done this year. It may well be true that nothing Biden could say or do would move Senators Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema, the two who are apparently blocking reform just now. Yet we have to frame the stakes accurately and clearly: if we do not “confront” those “imperfections” in our democracy, “openly and transparently,” in the State Department’s words, we will lose this democracy. And no summit will bring it back.

I’ve known and admired Larry since the 1990s, and will never forget the sombre telephone conversation he and I had in 2000 just after the Supreme Court had given the Presidency to George W. Bush. His 2011 book,  Republic, Lost: How Money Corrupts Congress – and a Plan to Stop It was a prescient warning of the dangers ahead, and things have got steadily worse since it was published.


Friday 17 December, 2021

Look! No hands!

This is one of my favourite pictures. On a visit to Venice some years ago my wife and I were sitting outside a cafe when a young couple of acrobats arrived and started to perform. They were watched not just by us but by a fascinated group of local children who had hitherto been playing football. Eventually, the two performers invited the kids to join them. What followed was absolutely entrancing. This is one of the moments that has always stuck in my memory. A kind of ‘decisive moment’ (with apologies to HCB)


Quote of the Day

”It was almost impossible to believe that he was anything but a down-at-heel actor resting between engagements at the decrepit theatres of provincial towns.”

  • Bernard Levin on Harold Macmillan

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Liam O’Flynn | The Gold Ring | with Sean Keane on guitar

Link


Long Read of the Day

Can “Distraction-Free” Devices Change the Way We Write?

Entertaining New Yorker piece by Julian Luca on how digital technology enabled productivity but invited procrastination. Which is why writers, he says, are rebelling against their word processors.

(Full disclosure: I gave up writing in Microsoft Word many years ago. Of course stuff I write sometimes appears in Word format because the recipient can’t handle anything else. But the words are always generated as plain text in Ulysses or similar writing tools which can output the text in a range of proprietary formats.)

Luca’s piece chronicles a journey through this compositional jungle. If you’ve ever tangled with word-processing software then maybe you’ll enjoy the ride. Certainly I did.


The Economist’s country of the year… 

…is Italy. How come?

In Mario Draghi, it acquired a competent, internationally respected prime minister. For once, a broad majority of its politicians buried their differences to back a programme of thoroughgoing reform that should mean Italy gets the funds to which it is entitled under the eu’s post-pandemic recovery plan. Italy’s covid vaccination rate is among the highest in Europe. And after a difficult 2020, its economy is recovering more speedily than those of France or Germany. There is a danger that this unaccustomed burst of sensible governance could be reversed. Mr Draghi wants to be president, a more ceremonial job, and may be succeeded by a less competent prime minister. But it is hard to deny that the Italy of today is a better place than it was in December 2020. For that, it is our country of the year. Auguroni!

The Economist just loves technocrats.


What parking tickets teach us about corruption

Lovely column by Tim Harford.

Corruption is a function of many things: political incentives, formal legal institutions and culture. One of my favourite studies, by the economists Raymond Fisman and Edward Miguel, teased apart these different factors by examining the behaviour of diplomats in New York City. With most consulates located near the UN building in midtown Manhattan, diplomats lived a daily parking nightmare. Or at least they did if they felt any obligation to pay parking fines — but diplomats faced no legal consequences for ignoring those fines. Since all diplomats faced similar incentives, any difference in behaviour was most plausibly explained by a difference in cultural attitudes to breaking the rules.

Fisman and Miguel studied parking violations between 1997 and 2002, finding a strong correlation between unpaid tickets and more general perceptions of corruption. The worst offenders were Kuwait, Egypt, Chad, Sudan and Bulgaria. One Kuwaiti diplomat managed to accumulate two unpaid parking fines every working day for a year.

In contrast, the entire consulates of Denmark, Norway and Sweden did not pick up a single unpaid parking ticket — not one — in the entire six-year period. Given the temptations, that is impressive.

But no less impressive were the British diplomats. They, too, accumulated no unpaid fines. So we must not despair. The recent outcry suggests that there is still a price to be paid for breaking the rules, or for trying to rewrite them when convenient. And the evidence from New York is that British civil servants are beyond reproach.

But… here’s the nub of Britain’s current problem…

A certain Boris Johnson once worked as GQ magazine’s motoring correspondent. His editor noted that Johnson had cost GQ “£5,000 in parking tickets”, but he wouldn’t have him any other way.

Well, well. And — as Harford observes, if Johnson faced no consequences then, why would he expect consequences now?


Xmas Books – 1

I like giving books as presents, but have a rule: never give a book that you yourself would not want to get. So for the next few days I want to highlight books I’ve read this year that meet that criterion.

This is the most extraordinary book I’ve read this year. It’s a vivid account of what it’s like to grow up in a totalitarian state (in this case Albania under the dictatorship of Enver Hoxha) and then to experience an abrupt transition to so-called liberal democracy, with all the ambivalences that implies. Among other things it makes one understand why the European states formerly within the Soviet empire have had such trouble evolving into functioning democracies.

If you want some background before embarking on it then this conversation between the author and my colleague David Runciman would be a good place to start.


This Blog is also available as a daily email. If you think that might suit you better, why not [subscribe]? One email a day, Monday through Friday, delivered to your inbox. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


Thursday 16 December, 2021

Death(s) in Venice

Five Stolpersteine I came on in a street in Venice. Often one finds them outside a house where Jewish victims of the Holocaust lived prior to their arrest and transfer to death camps. They’re always sobering to encounter. Note that four members of the Vivante family were swept away to their deaths on August 7, 1944. Also sobering to think that the Allied invasion of Italy took place in September 1943 and Venice was liberated on April 29, 1945. But that was eight months too late for the Vivantes.


Yesterday’s missing link

The link to Kara Swisher’s interview with Neal Stephenson was missing. Apologies for not spotting the omission.


Quote of the Day

”Nineteen suburbs in search of a metropolis.”

  • H.L. Mencken on Los Angeles

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Little Richard | “Tutti Frutti” | Concert for the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame

Link

Nobody slept in the back row that night.


Long Read of the Day Why culture wars are an elite device

An interesting New Statesman essay by Jan-Werner Müller, who is professor of politics at Princeton. He sees the crisis in liberal democracies as a product of two ‘secessions’ created by globalisation.

The first is of elites from dependence on the rest of society through their access to fancy schools, private health care, home-ownership in privileged enclaves and so on.

The other secession , Müller writes, is

even less visible. An increasing number of citizens at the lower end of the income spectrum no longer vote or participate in politics in any other way. In large German cities, for instance, the pattern is clear: poorer areas with high unemployment have much higher abstention rates in elections (in the centre of the old industrial metropolis of Essen it is as high as 90 per cent). This de facto self-separation is not based on a conscious programme in the way Thiel’s space (or spaced-out) fantasies are, and there is no “undiscovered country” for the worst-off. Tragically, such a secession becomes self-reinforcing: political parties, for the most part, have no reason to care for those who don’t care to vote; this in turn strengthens the impression of the poor that there’s nothing in it for them when it comes to politics.

How do these secessions relate to the crisis in democracy? Well, says Müller,

The promise of democracy is not that we shall all agree, and it does not require “uniformity of principles and habits”, as Alexander Hamilton had it. Rather, it is the guarantee that we have a fair chance of fighting for our side politically and then can live with the outcome of the struggle, because we will have another chance in a future election. It is not enough to complain that populists are divisive, for democratic politics is divisive by definition.

The absence of that ‘fair chance’ is the really corrosive force that is undermining our vaunted liberal democracy. Which may turn out to be the main reason why it’s doomed.

This is a long essay, which I hope is still not behind the New Statesman’s increasingly non-porous paywall, but it’s worth it IMO.


Chart of the Day

From Scott Galloway:

It took 42 years for Apple to reach a $1 trillion valuation — the first ever company to do so.

But it took just 2 years to add another $1 trillion in value.

Today, Apple’s market cap is roughly equal to all the world’s unicorns combined … and fast on its way to $3 trillion.

Hmmm… I should have bought Apple shares when Steve Jobs came back in 1997. Sigh.


My commonplace booklet

A fascinating Twitter thread on why Omicron is so interesting — and so puzzling. According to a new lab study, Omicron infects & multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and the wild type SARS-CoV-2 in the human bronchus, but not in the lung.


This Blog is also available as a daily email. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email a day, Monday through Friday, delivered to your inbox. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!