Smart meters and dumb government

This morning’s Observer column.

Underpinning the argument for smart meters are a number of assumptions. One is that, if consumers know how much electricity they are using at any given moment, then they will become more careful about how they use it. Another is that smart metering will enable utility companies to vary the cost per unit on an hourly basis. So electricity might cost 2p a unit at 3am but 12p a unit at 6pm, when the nation gets home, starts cooking and switches on the TV. The combination of these two charges should mean that peak demand is reduced, thereby making operation of the grid easier and less wasteful.

There’s a good case for rethinking the way we supply and charge for electricity, because if we go on as we are – with a dumb grid, dumb meters and accelerating demand – then we’ll eventually find ourselves with the problems that the Indians experienced recently. And that doesn’t bear thinking about.

The problem is that the way the government is approaching the issue doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

In praise of useful objects

For as long as I can remember, I’ve carried one of these tiny Swiss Army knives, and scarcely a day goes by without it being called upon for some humdrum but vital purpose. It’s been such a constant companion that, on several occasions, I’ve had to sacrifice it to airport security when travelling with only cabin baggage (though on my last flight I asked the Airport Security if it was still verboten and they said “no” — so it travelled with me).

Its one drawback is that the scissors is too small for some tasks. So recently I looked for an alternative, and came up with this tiny Leatherman tool.

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It’s slightly heavier and more bulky, but it has a terrific pair of scissors.

All that remains now is to find if I can take it with me when I fly. And — since you ask — it doesn’t have a tool for taking stones out of horses’ hooves. But then, I sold my horse ages ago and bought a Toyota.

Why we vote for liars

Nice, sharp column by Jack Shafer.

Say what you will about Ralph Nader and H. Ross Perot, but they ran relatively honest campaigns on the issues, and the voters rejected them. The political market spoke many years ago and continues to speak: Telling the truth is not great for campaigns – and if it were, more people would be doing it.

The one presidential candidate in recent memory to win the White House posing as a truth teller was Jimmy Carter, who famously promised early in his campaign: “I’ll never tell a lie” and “I’ll never knowingly make a misstatement of fact” as president. These promises drew instant fire from the press, most notably Steven Brill, who flayed him in a March 1976 Harper’s piece titled “Jimmy Carter’s Pathetic Lies” (subscription required). Carter, who told no fewer lies than the average candidate, paid a political price for his promise, as everyone turned up their radar. “By saying that he would never tell a lie, Carter decided for himself that that’s going to be his standard,” said Alan Baron, George McGovern’s press secretary. “Well, fine, let’s hold him to it.” As soon as they could, voters replaced the non-lying liar with Ronald Reagan, a man so smooth even he didn’t know when he was lying.

Exclamation marks rule OK!!!

Lovely review in the New Yorker of by James Wood of Tom Wolfe’s new book.

Tom Wolfe writes Big and Tall Prose—big subjects, big people, and yards of flapping exaggeration. No one of average size emerges from his shop; in fact, no real human variety can be found in his fiction, because everyone has the same enormous excitability. So his new novel, “Back to Blood” (Little, Brown), is supposedly about Miami. But it is about Miami not as, say, “Dead Souls” is about Russia or “Seize the Day” is about New York but more as heavy metal is about noise: not a description of the property but a condition of its excess. If it is about Miami, then “The Bonfire of the Vanities” and “A Man in Full” were also about Miami, not about New York and Atlanta, respectively. The content and the style haven’t changed much since “The Bonfire of the Vanities” was published, in 1987: select your city; presume it to be a site of simmering racial and ethnic civil war, always a headline away from a riot; throw a sensational news story into the fire; and watch the various interest groups immolate themselves.

Woods really nails the excesses of Wolfe’s style. For example:

The real writer, it is understood, must leave the enervating study and the filtered formalisms of postmodern prose, go out and hit the sidewalks (where the exclamation marks cluster in giant, swaying crowds!), and register the teeming ideological and racial realities.

Worth reading in full.

The 30-second Rule

From Paul Krugman’s blog.

Hmm. A late thought about the discussion on This Week. I suggested that it was the job of the news media to check on and report falsehoods from politicians. The response of the other panelists was that the media can’t do that if the opposing candidates didn’t make an issue of it — which as far as I can tell makes no sense at all.

But even granted that, the fact is that the Obama campaign is making an issue of Romney’s falsehoods, or at least trying to. Yet this is apparently considered unworthy of attention, because Obama didn’t make a forceful attack right there on the spot.

So let’s see if I have this straight: it’s not the job of the press to take on political falsehoods unless the other side makes a forceful case in 30 seconds or less. Glad to see that this has been clarified.

Hmmm x 2. I saw the discussion in question and was appalled by the attitude of the other participants. What underpins it is the fatal flaw in American journalism — the ‘balance as bias’ syndrome. Krugman made the point many years ago in a talk to students at Harvard, as this report recounts:

Krugman was a riot on Big Media’s docility. “If Bush said the earth is flat, of course Fox News would say ‘yes, the earth is flat, and anyone who says different is unpatriotic.’ And mainstream media would have stories with the headline: ‘Shape of Earth: Views Differ.’…and would at most report that some Democrats say that it’s round.” There’s “something deeply dysfunctional,” he observed, with established media facing “something we’ve not seen before, an epidemic of lying about policy.”

Why the Nobel prizes need a shakeup

Jim Al-Khalili has an interesting piece in today’s Guardian arguing that the Nobel prizes need a shakeup.

Of course one can argue that scientific progress has been taking place for hundreds of years and it is just that we are so much better now at reporting it. This is true. But one thing has changed: research disciplines previously unconnected are now starting to overlap and merge, with physicists, chemists, biologists, engineers, medics, computer scientists and mathematicians pooling their expertise to attack common problems. One such exciting field that is coming of age is quantum biology – where quantum physicists like me work alongside molecular biologists to attempt to explain a number of baffling phenomena in living cells.

He’s right. The rise of data-intensive science means that the original idea behind the Nobel prizes is beginning to look inadequate.

School report gets it wrong!

From John Gurdon’s school report when he was 15 years old:

“I believe Gurdon has ideas about becoming a scientist; on his present showing this is quite ridiculous; if he can’t learn simple biological facts he would have no chance of doing the work of a specialist, and it would be a sheer waste of time, both on his part and of those who would have to teach him.”

Today, it was announced that Gurdon is to share this year’s Nobel Prize for Medicine with a Japanese researcher, Shinya Yamanaka, for their work on stem cells.

Hugh @90



Professor Hugh Bevan, originally uploaded by jjn1.

I’ve only been to two 90th birthday parties in my life. The first one was EM Forster’s in 1969, in King’s. The second was for my friend and Wolfson colleague, Professor Hugh Bevan, who is 90 today. He’s a distinguished legal scholar who has made great contributions in the field of family law. As his daughter said at the event: “We’re here to celebrate Dad’s first 90 years”. Long may he continue.

Biofuel: feeds cars, starves people

Interesting paper by a trio of complexity theorists about the near-term implications of the US drought. Abstract reads:

Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that accurately describes historical food prices. During the last six years, high and fluctuating food prices have lead to widespread hunger and social unrest. While a relative dip in food prices occurred during the spring of 2012, a massive drought in the American Midwest in June and July threatens to trigger another crisis. In a previous paper, we constructed a model that quantitatively agreed with food prices and demonstrated that, while the behavior could not be explained by supply and demand economics, it could be parsimoniously and accurately described by a model which included both the conversion of corn into ethanol and speculator trend following. An update to the original paper in February 2012 demonstrated that the model previously published was predictive of the ongoing price dynamics, and anticipated a new food crisis by the end of 2012 if adequate policy actions were not implemented. Here we provide a second update, evaluating the effects of the current drought on global food prices. We find that the drought may trigger the expected third food price bubble to occur sooner, before new limits to speculation are scheduled to take effect. Reducing the amount of corn that is being converted to ethanol may address the immediate crisis. Over the longer term, market stabilization requires limiting financial speculation.