That managerial job

You’d have to be crazy to want to manage the England football team. Luiz Felipe Scolari clearly isn’t.

It took Sven Goran Eriksson five years to tire of the English media’s obsession with the incumbent of the impossible job. Luiz Felipe Scolari, his nemesis and the FA’s chosen successor, took less than 48 hours to decide that the radioactive tracksuit would not fit.

Scolari, a World Cup winner with Brazil and the man singled out by the FA’s tortuous appointments process as best candidate for England, yesterday announced that he would not be putting his name on the £2.5m-a-year contract offered to him on Wednesday.

After waking on Thursday morning to find 20 reporters on his doorstep in Lisbon and numerous others poring over his background, Big Phil decided to withdraw his name from the process…

Smart lad, that Luiz.

‘Systemic failure’…

… is a phrase much in vogue this week, as the British government struggles to cope with a week of disasters. Systemic means “of, or pertaining to, a system”, and it is quite clear that the failures in the prison/deportation arrangements which allowed over a thousand convicted foreigners to escape deportation were indeed systemic in this sense. As a matter of fact, most large-scale failures are.

This point is intelligently made by Martin Kettle in his Guardian column this morning when he writes:

Leaving John Prescott’s extramarital affair to one side (although, ironically, the deputy prime minister may be the biggest political loser of the week), it is foolish to pretend that the prisons and health crises are not symptomatic of something larger. It was not mere coincidence that two big departments found themselves under fire this week. Away from the front pages and the TV news bulletins, plenty of other departments are also undergoing similar heavy pounding: the Treasury for the lost billions of the tax credit system; the Ministry of Defence for persistent cost overruns; Defra for the bungled introduction of the new system of farm subsidies; the Department of Constitutional Affairs for an overspend on legal aid that will lead to the loss of hundreds of jobs in the court service.

These are not personal failures on the part of ministers, though not all ministers are as brave as Charles Clarke in fessing up to their failures. The fact that Clarke and Hewitt have both had a horrid week is down to something more than the former’s combative brusqueness or the latter’s unfortunate schoolmarmish manner. Both, by any reasonable account, are talented and competent. What is wrong is clearly “systemic”, as Clarke put it about the prisoner releases, or even institutional. This week’s events have exposed some of the wider limitations of Labour’s way of managing public-service reform, as well as Labour’s way of governing more generally – and perhaps even some of the limitations of the modern state itself.

The problem is that the logic of the “systemic failure” analysis is never followed up. What’s needed is systemic management of these very large and complex programmes, that is to say, an approach to design and management that is informed by systems thinking. Until we get that kind of approach, we are always going to have systemic failures, because we are blind to the interactions (or lack thereof) which cause them.

When one of my former OU colleagues, Professor Jake Chapman, went to work part-time for the Cabinet Office, he spotted immediately that the absence of systemic thinking was a crippling defect in the governmental apparatus, and he co-operated with us to produce an Open University course, Making Policies Work: systems thinking in government and management, as a way of helping people understand what is needed. Maybe we should offer it for free to every civil servant in the country?

When’s the best time to blog?

Apparently it’s 9am on Friday.

If there is an important article that you have been holding back on releasing, posting it on Friday morning at 9am should reach the most readers out of the entire week…

This conclusion was based on an analysis of the logs of the 200,000 visits to the author’s website. The data show that Friday is consistently the day on which most visits are registered. Interesting — but not much good if you’re based in Europe and have readers in other time-zones.

Quote of the day

Do not try to do too much with your own hands. Better the Arabs do it tolerably than that you do it perfectly. It is their war, and you are to help them, not to win it for them. Actually, also, under the very odd conditions of Arabia, your practical work will not be as good as, perhaps, you think it is.

Richard Holmes, the military historian, claimed on Radio 5 Live today that a printout of this epigram by T.E. Lawrence hangs on the wall of the British Army HQ in Basra.

Carr on Google

Nicholas Carr is a very perceptive Blogger. He’s just posted posted two intriguing pieces about the Google AdSense program. The first explores the fine print of the AdSense contracts (which basically threatens dire legal retribution if a blog “reflects poorly on Google or otherwise disparages or devalues Google’s reputation or goodwill”).

Hmmm…, quite a few of mine could be said to be critical of Google.

The second of Carr’s posts examines the huge amount of free capital Google stacks up as a result of its rule that AdSense bloggers don’t get paid until their fees add up to more than $100.

Jane Jacobs…

… has died at the age of 89. Her book, The Death and Life of Great American Cities changed the way most of us think about urban life. Not many people have that kind of long-term impact. Nice overview of her thinking here.

Da Vinci Code judgment decoded

From The Register

Disappointingly, the hidden message inserted by a High Court judge into his ruling on the Da Vinci Code copyright trial has already been solved. Mr Justice Peter Smith’s code, reported yesterday, has been cracked by a London lawyer.

It reads:

Jackie Fisher, who are you? Dreadnought

Rather than a clue to the lizard conspiracy that probably permeates every level of the judiciary, Smith’s message actually promotes his personal hero from British naval history, a long standing hobby interest.

John Arbuthnot “Jackie” Fisher sailed the seven seas in the late Victorian and Edwardian eras. He’s considered a forgotten hero of naval history and is the Judge’s pet admiral. Fisher was a big reformer and chairman of the committee that commissioned the groundbreaking battleship Dreadnought.

Smith used the Fibonacci Sequence, which appears in The Da Vinci Code to encrypt the historical nugget. Under the Fibonacci Sequence each number is the sum of the previous two numbers thus:

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21…

Some arithmetic gymnastics based in the sequence was used to rearrange the italicised letters in Smith’s judgment to decrypt them.

Going phishing

This arrived in my email. Apart from the fact that I don’t bank with HSBC, you only have to hover over the URL to know it’s a scam.

(The actual URL is:
http://69.6.186.47//images/.www-hsbc.co-uk.uk-co=HSBC.personal-1-2/www.hsbc.co.uk/1/2/personal/pib-home/).

WhoIs indicates that 69.6.186.47 is an ISP based in Amarillo, Texas.

Why do people fall for this stuff? (They wouldn’t if they took our course.)