Monday 27 March, 2023

What’s in a picture?

From Noema:

Where a host meets his guests reveals the context in which he wants to be regarded. The background decor of the chosen setting is more than a telling detail. It is the writing on the wall.

In the case of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the image of power they want to project is out of the historical realm of czars and emperors among whom they place themselves. The civilizational past portrayed on their walls suffuses their vision of the future. It is the common springboard of opposition to the liberal world order of the West they are united in resisting.

This was in splendid evidence at the Moscow summit this week when Putin hosted a banquet for Xi at the 15th-century Palace of Facets in the Kremlin where czars celebrated after their coronation and consecrated the top clergy of the Orthodox Church. The mural behind the two leaders in the photo above, which depicts Vladimir the Great and his sons, is meant to convey legitimacy conferred through continuity. Vladimir ruled what came to be called the Kievan Rus from 980 to 1015, when he unified disparate principalities into one state and converted the nation to Christianity.

It is this very history that lay behind Putin’s justification of the invasion of Ukraine. Could he have been more explicit in what he was asking Xi to endorse?

The Chinese leader may have been unaware of the message the wily namesake of Vladimir I was sending through a staged photo-op. But he would have easily understood the uses of historical continuity as a touchstone to legitimate his own rule.

If Xi was unaware of it at the time, he isn’t now. Besides, as Noema points out, he uses similar imagery himself from time to time.


Quote of the Day

“You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough”

  • Mae West

Amen.


Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

The Dubliners | Christ Church

Link


Long Read of the Day

On the allurements of conspiracy theory

Really astute and insightful essay by Phil Christman in the Hedgehog Review on a subject that my colleagues and I spent some years studying before it was academically fashionable. Interesting for — among other things — the way it tries to get inside a conspiracist’s head.

One day, you stumble across something—a long video, an article, a conversation (How rare those are! You must make more time for them…) with a learned friend. The same self-righteousness of authority crosses his face, the tinniness of certainty issued from his mouth too, but this time what he says sticks. It seems to explain the wrongness. Or not even explain it, really—just make it stand still. It was this thing that was wrong. The monster disclosed himself. He was something small and definable—a vaccine, a chemical—that spreads until it can’t be isolated, or he was something large and indefinable—“wokeness,” “CRT”—that terminates in many small, sharp wrongnesses. Or maybe it was the second sort of thing, but epitomized in a single image, so that it sounds like the first: The Cathedral. The cabal. But for a second, you could see the wrongness. How clarifying, simply to see it. You felt something like desire.

As you read on, as you watch more videos, as you continue to talk with your learned friend, you experience, for perhaps the first time in your life, the joy of scholarship. What was school, anyway? A punishment for being awake, a reminder that for every minute of playground, life will exact an hour of sitting still in a hot room that stinks of others’ lunches digesting. How can one doubt the existence of malign conspiracies in a world that answers the miraculous sharpening of adolescent senses with the sense-insulting colors, shapes, smells, of school? School never gave you this feeling, the feeling that “there is a world inside the world,” as Don DeLillo writes in Libra (1988), his great novel of the John F. Kennedy assassination. You start to become, as DeLillo depicts Oswald becoming, a sort of secular monk…

You read like Oswald, obsessively. You marshal for yourself the rough narrative of history that education should already have given you. You become that precious and imperiled thing, an autodidact…

It’s long but worth it.


Gordon Moore RIP

A great figure from the history of modern computing has passed away. Gordon Moore was a co-founder of Intel and the inspiration for the eponymous ‘Law’ predicting that the number of transistors that could be placed on a silicon chip would double at regular intervals for the foreseeable future, thus increasing the data-processing power of computers exponentially.

Holcomb Noble and Katie Hafner have a nice Obituary of him in the New York Times.

I met him once. He was on a visit to Cambridge, where he had endowed a beautiful science and technology library. I asked for an interview and we met in the office of the University Librarian and had a long chat about the early history of the industry and the part he had played in it. At one point I noticed that he was still wearing the ancient digital watch for which he had become famous and asked him why he still wore it. He answered that it was a peg for one of his stories — namely that, at $15 million it was the most expensive watch in the world. How come? Because that was Intel lost from trying to get into — and exiting from — the digital watch business.

Our talk was very enjoyable but after a while I started to worry about his schedule and mentioned to him that the car that the University had arranged to take him to meet the then Chancellor of the University (Prince Philip) should now be picking him up. So we went down to the Library entrance and… there was no limo in sight. He didn’t have a contact number for someone to call, but he knew where he was supposed to be heading. So we climbed into my battered Saab — littered with kids’ toys, tennis racquets and other junk — and I drove him to his destination.

After I dropped him off I drove home and told my late wife Sue about the about my role as an impromptu chauffeur. She was not amused. “What!” she expostulated. “You drove Gordon Moore in our crummy jalopy.” Then she went to her laptop, ascertained how many Intel shares Moore then owned, multiplied that by the share price and came back with the number $7B. The least I could have done, she said, was to get him to buy us a new Saab.

He was a nice and a good man. May he rest in peace.


You wait ages for an AI chatbot to come along, then a whole bunch turn up. Why?

Yesterday’s Observer column:

When, late last year, the editor asked me and other Observer writers what we thought 2023 would be like, my response was that it would be more like 1993 than any other year in recent history. Why? Simply this: 1993 was the year that Mosaic, the first modern web browser, launched and all of a sudden the non-technical world understood what this strange “internet” thing was for. This was despite the fact that the network had been switched on a whole decade earlier, during which time the world seemed almost entirely unaware of it; as a species, we seem to be slow on the uptake.

Much the same would happen in 2023, I thought, with ChatGPT. Machine-learning technology, misleadingly rebranded as artificial intelligence (AI), has been around for eons, but for the most part, only geeks were interested in it. And then out comes ChatGPT and suddenly “meatspace” (internet pioneer John Perry Barlow’s derisive term for the non-techie world) wakes up and exclaims: “So that’s what this AI stuff is all about. Wow!”

And then all hell breaks loose, because it turns out that all the tech giants, who had been obsessed with this generative AI stuff for years, realised that they had been scooped by a small US research outfit called OpenAI (cunningly funded by boring old Microsoft)…

Read on


My Commonplace Booklet

The other day, I wondered what a “hammered dulcimer” might be. (I was vaguely reminded of my undergraduate days when the term “hammered” described someone so drunk as to be incapable of independent locomotion, and I was entertaining fantasies of a inebriated musical instrument wandering the streets.)

Sheila Hayman (Whom God Preserve), whose mission in life is to protect me from my invincible ignorance, provided rapid enlightenment.

Basically, before pianos, keyboard instruments (harpsichords, clavichords, dulcimers) made their notes by plucking the strings, which meant no gradations of sound, no resonance, no long or short notes. Dual keyboard harpsichords made it possible to do loud or soft, but nothing in between. Then forte pianos and later pianofortes came along which hit the strings with hammers, which could be done more or less hard, giving more range of sound. Then dampers and the ‘loud’ pedal gave us resonance, and the ‘soft’ pedal (which just shifts the hammers along so they only hit two strings rather than three) gave an extra layer of expressiveness. Then Erard invetned the double escapement action which made it possible to repeat notes very quickly. Then Beethoven came along and showed what could be done with it. As did Fanny [Mendelssohn] about whom Sheila has made a new documentary.

So a hammered dulcimer, as I understand it, is an evolved dulcimer in which the strings are hammered, not plucked.

So now I know. And so , dear reader, do you.


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Friday 24 March, 2023

Don’s F

Don McCullough’s Nikon F. The one that took the bullet intended for him when he was covering the war in Vietnam. Best advertisement for a camera I’ve ever seen.


Quote of the Day

”For those who believe in God, no explanation is necessary. For those who do not believe, no explanation is possible.”

  • George Seaton

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Telemann | Concerto for Mandolin, Hammered Dulcimer, Harp and Continuo in F Major, TWV 53:F1 | I. Allegro

Link

I’d often heard this but hadn’t know it was by Telemann. Also, I wondered what the poor dulcimer had done to be ‘hammered’.

In yesterday’s Musical Alternative by the wonderful Mary Bergin, my Apple autocorrect changed her name to ‘Begin’ and I didn’t notice. Growl!


Long Read of the Day

Hidden hydrogen: Earth may hold vast stores of a renewable, carbon-free fuel

Fascinating article by Eric Hand in Science, a really top-class journal.

The story starts with a ‘dry’ borehole in Mali.

In 2012, he recruited Chapman Petroleum to determine what was coming out of the borehole. Sheltered from the 50°C heat in a mobile lab, Brière and his technicians discovered that the gas was 98% hydrogen. That was extraordinary: Hydrogen almost never turns up in oil operations, and it wasn’t thought to exist within the Earth much at all. “We had celebrations with large mangos that day,” Brière says.

Within a few months, Brière’s team had installed a Ford engine tuned to burn hydrogen. Its exhaust was water. The engine was hooked up to a 30-kilowatt generator that gave Bourakébougou its first electrical benefits: freezers to make ice, lights for evening prayers at the mosque, and a flat-screen TV so the village chief could watch soccer games. Children’s test scores also improved. “They had the lighting to learn their lessons before going to class in the morning,” Diallo says. He soon gave up on oil, changed the name of his company to Hydroma, and began drilling new wells to ascertain the size of the underground supply.

The Malian discovery was vivid evidence for what a small group of scientists, studying hints from seeps, mines, and abandoned wells, had been saying for years: Contrary to conventional wisdom, large stores of natural hydrogen may exist all over the world, like oil and gas—but not in the same places.

If this is indeed the case, then it could be a significant moment in the quest for a low-carbon future.

Thanks to Charles Arthur for alerting me to it.


You can now run a GPT-3-level AI model on your laptop, phone, and Raspberry Pi

The ‘Generative AI’ genie is out of the bottle. And it’s being commoditised. Some of it is now running on my iPhone and my laptop. There’s even a version of Meta’s LLM now running (slowly) on a Raspberry Pi! This ArsTechnica piece gives a useful run-down on what’s happening.


My commonplace booklet

I’m really excited to say that your “really excited” messages turn me right off

From an exasperated Polish scholar on the Digital Humanities newsletter.

I’m truly excited and delighted and thrilled to see that it is not just my cynical self foaming at the mouth when I see all those “excited to be giving a talk at the conference…” tweets. Excited, really? Man, you’re 40, you should not be excited anymore whenever you talk at other people for 20 minutes in a room with a screen (half of those people are tweeting about something else anyway). I wonder if this is not just the same false excitement we see in commercials when that laxative really does the job on the acting persons’ entrails.

I guess it makes sense in very competitive academic climes (you know where). It’s interesting how hyperbolical the traditionally unemotional Anglo-Saxons have become. I don’t see a lot of that excitement (“podniecenie” or “ekscytacja”) in my native Polish in this context; I guess it’s because our academia is so underpaid that the competitiveness evaporates before it’s even born. But that is another story.

Couldn’t agree more. It’s astonishing how infantile academics can be on social media — especially Twitter — and, now, even on Mastodon.


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Thursday 23 March, 2023

Art Class

Two images created by the ‘GenerativeAI’ package, Stable Diffusion. The top one comes from running the app on my iPhone; the other from running a version of the software on my M1 MacBook Air — both in response to the prompt: “Photograph of Vermeer’s ‘Girl with a Pearl earring’ but with Apple AirPod instead of an earring.”

The thing to note is that all of this computation happened locally and not in the Cloud — first in a hand-held device, and then in a small laptop. What it means is that this generative technology has escaped from its corporate masters and is now loose in the wild.


Quote of the Day

”The most interesting ideas are heresies.”

  • Susan Sontag

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Mary Bergin | The Flogging Reel / The Ivy Leaf / Trim the Velvet

Link

The tin whistle is the simplest imaginable musical instrument. But when you hear what Mary Bergin can do with it then you realise there’s something sublime there. I once heard her play in a pub in Clare and I’ll never forget it.


Long Read of the Day

The Heresy of Decline

Further to the Sontag quote above, this essay by Paul Constance about the uncomfortable reality that the human population will peak relatively soon is eye-opening. At least it was for me.

In all, more than 2.1 billion people — a quarter of humanity — now live in countries that are smaller each evening than they were in the morning. Because it is diffused throughout millions of people, this phenomenon is essentially invisible to the public, but the numbers are startling in aggregate. Each month, Russia’s population diminishes by around 86,000 people (not including casualties from the war in Ukraine), Japan’s by around 50,000, and Italy’s by at least 20,000. Fertility in these countries has been so low for so long that depopulation is cemented into their future, regardless of any near-term recovery in birthrates. Overall, the UN anticipates that their populations will shrink by between 20 percent and 50 percent by the end of the century. Other studies anticipate much larger and faster declines.

Constance writes interestingly about our general unwillingness to write or think about the long-term implications of depopulation. And he is puzzled by the fact that even sci-fi writers seem to avoid it.

One writer, though, hasn’t — Margaret Attwood in The Handmaid’s Tale, where she explains the demographic origins of her fictional dystopia in a single sentence:

”There was no one cause, says Aunt Lydia… [pointing to] a graph, showing the birth rate per thousand, for years and years: a slippery slope, down past the zero line of replacement, and down and down.”


Books, etc.

This is one of the most insightful books about technology that I’ve ever read. I reached for it the other day when I was writing about the sudden explosion of LLMs (Large Language Models). Arthur is a great economist, but also an expert on complexity. And his theory of “combinational innovation” provides the best explanation I know of many technological breakthroughs, few of which ever stemmed from an ‘Eureka! Moment’.


My commonplace booklet

Botanical ignoramuses

Lovely email from Arthur Kuebel:

Your recent discussions regarding Artificial Intelligence caused me to be curious about its capabilities regarding my area of interest : Botany.

Yesterday evening, I conducted a side-by-side comparison of Microsoft’s AI and Google’s AI.

Both were given the query “is there a brief list of endemic botanical species for Kittitas County?”

Both failed. Miserably.

One response of incorrect biogeographical occurrence. Eight responses of nonexistent botanical species. The tenth response was not a biological organism – it was a rock.

Fairly clear that students should not use these AIs as a study guide nor should researchers inflate their word count by relying on its content generation.

I’m laughing at the irony of Satya Nadella characterizing prior AI attempts as “dumb as a rock” when Microsoft’s much touted AI responds with a type of rock when specifically asked about biological organisms.

I’ve attached screenshots of yesterday’s exercise. Also, being an avid photographer myself, I’ve included an image of the Stuart Range site I annually study for plant responses and endemism in serpentine soils.

That’s it. The morning’s frost has melted and we’re off to measure and assess this year’s emergence of a Lomatium species.


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Wednesday 22 March, 2023

Spring is sprung

Blackthorn blossom seen on a walk the other day.


Quote of the Day

”Never negotiate with anybody who lacks the power to say Yes.”

  • Richard Thaler

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Regina Spektor | Fidelity

Link


Long Read of the Day

Waiting for Brando

Entrancing essay by Edward Jay Epstein in Lapham’s Quarterly about filming the Iliad. I’m still laughing a day after reading it. Hope it has the same effect on you.

Thanks to The Browser for spotting it.


So now we know why Microsoft invested $10B in OpenAI

Here’s the explanation. It’s called Copilot.

Microsoft 365 Copilot is integrated into the apps you already use every day, freeing you to focus on the most important work and less on the busy work. Working alongside you, Microsoft 365 Copilot helps you to unleash creativity, unlock productivity, and uplevel skills.

Given that I almost never use Microsoft stuff, will it be enough to tempt me back? After all, I feel no need to “unleash creativity, unlock productivity” or even to “uplevel” what few skills I possess. I can write plain English, though, which is something Microsoft’s AI-boosted copywriters have yet to master.


My commonplace booklet

It is, indeed.

From the current issue of Private Eye. (Which God Preserve)


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Tuesday 21 March, 2023

Lost in Cyberspace


Quote of the Day

”A week ago Thursday, we kind of learned something that we really should have recognized two years ago: If Elon Musk tweeting one word, “Gamestonk”, can quintuple a stock’s price because Elon’s fanboys like being part of a community in it for the LULZ, then viral meme contagion from Silicon Valley venture capitalists can bankrupt a bank that looked otherwise as if it was likely to skate through.

A shock like Lehman Brothers took a month to propagate. Something similar today would likely take only three days.”

  • Brad DeLong, the Berkeley economist (and long-time blogger) who was once was a deputy assistant secretary for economic policy at the U.S. Treasury during the Clinton Administration.

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Pergolesi| Stabat Mater | Emma Kirkby & James Bowman | Academy of St Martin in the Fields, conducted by Christopher Hogwood

Link

Thanks to Max Whitby (Whom God Preserve) for suggesting it.


Long Read of the Day

 What Have Humans Just Unleashed?

Long piece in which The Atlantic columnist Charlie Warzel tries to figure out the implications of the Large Language Models that obsess us all at the moment. At one point, a machine-learning guy, Nathan Labenz, describes humanity’s current state in relation to this technology as “Radical Uncertainty”.

I would call it half-informed bewilderment myself. But that’s btw. Wurzel is a thoughtful guy and his essay is a good read.

“ChatGPT doesn’t really resemble the Manhattan Project”, he writes at the end.

But I wonder if the existential feeling that seeps into most of my AI conversations parallels the feelings inside Los Alamos in the 1940s. I’m sure there were questions then. If we don’t build it, won’t someone else? Will this make us safer? Should we take on monumental risk simply because we can? Like everything about our AI moment, what I find calming is also what I find disquieting. At least those people knew what they were building.

Yep.


Books, etc.

European elegy

Diane Coyle (Whom God Preserve) has been reading Timothy Garton Ash’s new book,  Homelands: A Personal History of Europe. “Like the author”, she writes,

I mourn the way our European citizenship has been stripped from those of us in the UK, by a slender margin, by voters who were lied to by mendacious and greedy politicians and businessmen. And at the same time recognise the challenges the EU itself needs to address. No wonder the book ends by quoting Gramsci on pessimisim/optimism. But also Vaclav Havel: “Hope is not prognostication. It is an orientation of the spirit, an orientation of the heart. …. It is not the conviction that something will turn out well, but the certainty that something makes sense, regardless of how it turns out.”

So, not a cheering read, at least for those likely to pick up a book about Europe. But a compelling read, by someone who had a ringside seat at many of the key meetings and ‘where were you when…’ events (above all the fall of the Berlin Wall) of the past 40 years.

I know, and admire, Tim and so will be reading his memoir. Diane also recommends his terrific book about the file that the Stasi kept on him when he was a journalist working in pre-1989 Europe.


My commonplace booklet

“How to Learn and Teach Economics with Large Language Models, Including GPT”

An interesting paper by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok.

Just for fun at one point, they asked CPT how Fred Flintstone was like Hamlet.

ChatGPT responded (in part):

Fred Flintstone and Hamlet are two vastly different characters from different time periods, cultures, and mediums of storytelling. It is difficult to draw direct comparisons between the two.

However, one possible point of similarity is that both characters face existential dilemmas and struggles with their sense of purpose and identity. Hamlet is plagued by doubts about his ability to avenge his father’s murder, and his own worthiness as a human being. Similarly, Fred Flintstone often grapples with his place in society and his ability to provide for his family and live up to his own expectations.

B+ ???


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Monday 20 March, 2023

The Decisive Moment

Caught by Jess Betts in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa, the other day.


Quote of the Day

”Competition brings out the best in products, and the worst in people.”

  • David Sarnoff

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Peter Gabriel and Kate Bush | Don’t give up

Link


Long Read of the Day

Dan Wang’s Letter for 2022

He’s the most insightful observer of China that I’ve come across, and his annual letter is always a treat. This one is no exception. It’s long, but really worth it. Just before Shanghai was locked down he caught the last flight to Yunnan, the province in China’s farthest southwest, and stayed there for quite a while. Yunnan’s landmass — slightly smaller than that of California’s — has greater geographic variation than most countries. It sounds like a good place to sit out the pandemic.

Mountains have always beckoned to dissenters, rebels, and subversives. It is not only the air that thins out at higher elevations: the tendrils of the state do too. Small bands of people only need to hike a while to find a congenial refuge in the mountains; it’s far harder for imperial administrators with their vast caravans to locate all the hideouts. Throughout history, therefore, people have climbed upwards to escape the state. It is not only to take leave of the irksome suction of the tax collector. It’s also to break free of the problems that accompany dense populations—epidemics, conscription, and the threat of state-scale warfare. As a consequence, people who dwell in the mountains tend to be seen as unruly folks, be they Appalachian Americans or Highland Scots.

Yunnan has been a distinguished refuge for peoples tired of the state. It is the heart of a vast zone of highland Southeast Asia described by James C. Scott in The Art of Not Being Governed—the best book I read this year (and which I will be drawing on throughout this piece). Scott writes about the innumerable hill peoples who have repaired to these mountains over the last several millennia, escaping oppression from the Burmese state, the Tibetan state, or most often, the Han-Chinese state.

Mountain refuges aside, the main thrust of the letter is to find a way of reflecting on 2022 in China. “The starting point”, Dan writes

must be the three most important events of the year. First, zero-Covid: extraordinarily tight controls that were all abandoned in December. Second, the greater centralization of political power under Xi Jinping after the 20th Party Congress. Third, a declaration of a “limitless friendship” with Russia that had “no forbidden zones” three weeks before its invasion of Ukraine.

And I loved this reflection:

The Chinese state remains enormously capable. But that statement demands refinements. First, it increasingly resembles a crew of firefighters who bring extraordinary skill to dousing fires that they themselves ignited. Hope you enjoy it s much as I did.


The SVB debacle has exposed the hypocrisy of Silicon Valley

Yesterday’s Observer column:

The first thing to understand is that “Silicon Valley” is actually a reality-distortion field inhabited by people who inhale their own fumes and believe they’re living through Renaissance 2.0, with Palo Alto as the new Florence. The prevailing religion is founder worship, and its elders live on Sand Hill Road in San Francisco and are called venture capitalists. These elders decide who is to be elevated to the privileged caste of “founders”.

To achieve this status it is necessary to a) be male; b) have a Big Idea for disrupting something; and c) never have knowingly worn a suit and tie. Once admitted to the priesthood, the elders arrange for a large tipper-truck loaded with $100 bills to arrive at the new member’s door and cover his driveway with cash.

But this presents the new founder with a problem: where to store the loot while he is getting on with the business of disruption? Enter stage left one Gregory Becker, CEO of SVB and famous in the valley for being worshipful of founders and slavishly attentive to their needs. His company would keep their cash safe, help them manage their personal wealth, borrow against their private stock holdings and occasionally even give them mortgages for those $15m dream houses on which they had set what might loosely be called their hearts.

So SVB was awash with money. But, as programmers say, that was a bug not a feature…

Read on


My commonplace booklet

Golf’s governing bodies are proposing to change golf balls

According to the New York Times it’s because players like Rory McIlroy are hitting drives that are too long.


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Friday 17 March, 2023

Kevin Kelly

Kevin Kelly (Cmichel67 CC BY-SA 4.0)

Fine portrait of an interesting man. See today’s Long Read.


Quote of the Day

”Just a little more reverence, please, and not so much astonishment.”

  • (Sir) Malcolm Sargent, admonishing a choir rehearsing Handel’s ‘For Unto Us a Child is Born”.

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Shaun Davey | Liam O’Flynn | Newfoundland

Link

I know I’ve linked to this in the past, but it’s one of my favourite pieces. It is St Patrick’s Day, after all. And Liam was the greatest piper of my lifetime.


Long Read of the Day

 Interview: Kevin Kelly, editor, author, and futurist

Kevin Kelly, who has been around even longer than I have, is an acquired taste for some. But I’ve always enjoyed reading him even when I thought he was wrong. This long and unfailingly interesting conversation between him and Noah Smith is good value.

This is how Noah introduces it:

Essentially, if you look at the fast-changing world of technology and you ask “Where is this all headed?”, and “Where should this all be headed?”, then Kevin Kelly is a natural person to ask. And in the interview that follows, that is basically what I asked him. I especially focused on his idea of the “technium”, which is all of human technology acting together as a single natural system or organism. We talk about whether this technium exists in competition with Earth’s natural environment, or whether the two can exist in harmony. We also discuss AI, social media crypto, and we talk about whether and how technological development can be actively steered. He also dispenses a bit of helpful life advice.

The interview itself is interesting throughout. Kelly’s idea of the ‘technium’ has always seemed a bit wacky to me (it invariably reminds me of Langdon Winner’s question about whether artefacts have politics) but his exposition of it here is entertaining and thoughtful. Running through the whole piece is his incurable techno-optimism. But then that was always his trademark.

His observations on machine-learning are right on the money, though.

Nonetheless, right now machine learning is overhyped. It is not sentient, and not as smart as it seems. What we are discovering is that many of the cognitive tasks we have been doing as humans are dumber than they seem. Playing chess was more mechanical than we thought. Playing the game Go is more mechanical than we thought. Painting a picture and being creative was more mechanical than we thought. And even writing a paragraph with words turns out to be more mechanical than we thought. So far, out of the perhaps dozen of cognitive modes operating in our minds, we have managed to synthesize two of them: perception and pattern matching. Everything we’ve seen so far in AI is because we can produce those two modes. We have not made any real progress in synthesizing symbolic logic and deductive reasoning and other modes of thinking. It is those “others” that are so important because as we inch along we are slowly realizing we still have NO IDEA how our own intelligences really work, or even what intelligence is. A major byproduct of AI is that it will tell us more about our minds than centuries of psychology and neuroscience have.

Anyway, that’s enough from me. Read it yourself and ponder. I hope you enjoy it.


Small earthquake in Silicon Valley: not many dead

My Observer column next Sunday takes a sardonic view of what happened to the Valley’s favourite bank. But in the meantime Dave Karpf’s Three thoughts on Silicon Valley Bank will keep you entertained.

The myth of Silicon Valley is that it is a font of innovation, the place where the future is being invented. I’ve written before about the underlying ideological project here — in which the inventors, entrepreneurs, engineers and investors are the heroic change-makers, while governments, regulators, and existing institutions are obstacles to be overcome or villains to be defeated. There’s something galling about just how… reduced the whole phenomenon has been by the simple act of interest rates rising. It’s a real Wizard of Oz moment… Really? Low interest rates? Is that all this has ever been?

It’s a nice piece. Insightful too about how Peter Thiel basically pulled the plug on the bank.


My commonplace booklet

This is crass, but also oddly impressive. Landing a plane on a helipad atop an unspeakable hotel.


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Thursday 16 March, 2023

The beach approaching sundown

Shows how difficult it can be shooting into the light. Flawed photograph, but I didn’t want to miss it.


Quote of the Day

“I needed a drink, I needed a lot of life insurance, I needed a vacation, I needed a home in the country. What I had was a coat, a hat, and a gun. I put them on and went out of the room.”

  • Detective Philip Marlowe in Raymond Chandler’s Farewell, My Lovely.

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Jackson Browne with David Lindley | Before The Deluge, June 26, 2010

Link


Long Read of the Day

Salt-Seeking

I found this reflective blog post by Venkatesh Rao to be intensely thought-provoking. That’s partly because he’s such an interesting thinker, but also because the topic he’s on about is close to my heart — and indeed to this newsletter.

Rao has come up with a striking metaphor for thinking about writing in different media — salt-seeking — which he thinks is superior to the more familiar metaphor of “coming up for air”.

One of the effects of this evolutionary history is that all air-breathing life has to seek out perhaps the most important chemical that’s ubiquitous in the oceans but not trivial to find on land: salt. Salt-seeking is one of the most fundamental behaviors of terrestrial life. Animals in the wild seek out salt licks even at great risk of predation. Humans with salt deficiencies have serious problems, and beyond a point of salt deprivation, you die.

He’s thinking about this because, like me, he runs a blog on the open Web as well as a newsletter. “This past February,” he writes,

“has possibly been the first time in the 15-year history of this blog that I haven’t posted for a full calendar month. Or at least one of a handful of very rare periods. And I feel a sort of mysterious nutritional deficiency in my psyche. It feels similar to how I feel if I go without eating vegetables for too long, but more elemental. A kind of vague chemical unsettledness…

Read on. It’s worth it, especially if you’re interested in the Web as the nearest thing we’ve got to a genuine public sphere.


My commonplace booklet

From the you-couldn’t-make-it-up Department

Apparently some people have difficulty composing 140-280-character messages. Hence this Reuters story.

Koo, an India-based social media app that aims to rival Twitter, has integrated OpenAI’s ChatGPT to help users more easily create posts, the company’s co-founder told Reuters.

ChatGPT is an artificial intelligence bot that can create prose in response to prompts and has set off a tech industry craze over generative AI.

Koo users will be able to use ChatGPT directly within the app to help them draft posts about current events, politics or pop culture, said Mayank Bidawatka, co-founder of Koo, in an interview.


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Wednesday 15 March, 2023

Light and Shade


Quote of the Day

”Winning isn’t everything, but wanting to is.”

  • Arnold Palmer (who won the Masters four times, the PGA Championship three times, the US Open in 1969 and the British Open twice)

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Keith Jarrett | My Song | 1978

Link


Long Read of the Day

Claims That AI Productivity Will Save Us Are Neither New, nor True

Not only does new tech often result in more work for people, says Elizabeth Renieris, but it also introduces additional kinds of work.

Simply put, the AI productivity narrative is a lie. It holds that by automating tasks, AI will make them more efficient and make us, in turn, more productive. This will free us for more meaningful tasks, or for leisurely pursuits such as yoga, painting or volunteerism, promoting human flourishing and well-being. But if history is any guide, this outcome is highly unlikely, save for a privileged elite. More likely, the rich will only get richer.

Because it’s not technology that can liberate us. To preserve and promote meaningful autonomy in the face of these AI advancements, we must look to our social, political and economic systems and policies. As Derek Thompson observes in The Atlantic, “Technology only frees people from work if the boss — or the government, or the economic system — allows it.” To allege otherwise is technosolutionism, plain and simple.

Yep. ‘AI’ may indeed lead to increased productivity, which could be a good thing. But only if the profits from that are equitably shared. Which they are not at the moment — and if tech corporations have their way, never will be.


Regulating crypto

Dave Birch (Whom God Preserve) pointed me to Nicholas Weaver’s White Paper, The Death of Cryptocurrency. It’s an interesting, incisive essay, which comes to admirably succinct conclusions, as follows:

Regulators, especially regulators in the United States, often fear accusations of stifling innovation. As such, the cryptocurrency space has grown over the past decade with very little regulatory oversight.

But fortunately for regulators, there is no actual innovation to stifle. Cryptocurrencies cannot revolutionize payments or finance, as the basic nature of all cryptocurrencies render them fundamentally unsuitable to revolutionize our financial system — which, by the way, already has decades of successful experience with digital payments and electronic money.

The supposedly “decentralized” and “trustless” cryptocurrency systems, both technically and socially, fail to provide meaningful benefits to society — and indeed, necessarily also fail in their foundational claims of decentralization and trustlessness.

When regulating cryptocurrencies, the best starting point is history. Regulating various tokens is best done through the existing securities law framework, an area where the US has a near century of well-established law. It starts with regulating the issuance of new cryptocurrency tokens and related securities. This should substantially reduce the number of fraudulent offerings.

Similarly, active regulation of the cryptocurrency exchanges should offer substantial benefits, including eliminating significant consumer risk, blocking key money-laundering channels, and overall producing a far more regulated and far less manipulated market.

Finally, the stablecoins need basic regulation as money transmitters. Unless action is taken they risk becoming substantial conduits for money laundering, but requiring them to treat all users as customers should prevent this risk from developing further.

Comes like a breath of fresh air. If only we had the same for ChatGPT. (Thinks: now there’s an idea.)


Books, etc.

I’d been reading Clive James’s essay on Stefan Zweig in his magnum opus, Cultural Amnesia.

“Zweig’s own achievements,” James writes,

are nowadays often patronised: a bad mistake, in my view. Largely because of his highly schooled but apparently effortless gift for a clear prose narrative, he attained, while he lived, immense popularity not just in the German-speaking countries but in the world entire, and he is still paying the penalty for it. Except in France, where his major works are never out of print, it is usually safer to call him second-rate. Safer, but not sound.

I decided it was high time I read some Zweig. So I downloaded a copy of The World of Yesterday: Memoirs of a European and embarked upon it. And goddam it, Clive was right.


My commonplace booklet

“”There has been much hand-wringing about ChatGPT and its ability to replicate some composition tasks. But ChatGPT can no more conceive “Mrs. Dalloway” than it can guide and people-manage an organization. Instead, A.I. can gather and order information, design experiments and processes, produce descriptive writing and mediocre craftwork, and compose basic code, and those are the careers likeliest to go into slow eclipse.”


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Tuesday 14 March, 2023

W.B.’s final resting place

Drumcliffe churchyard, Co. Sligo.

The inscription reads:

Cast a cold Eye

On Life, on Death.

Horseman pass by.

I never pass by without calling in. Especially now that the café has re-opened.


Quote of the Day

”Also, I am sorry to be rude, but there is another reason that it is maybe not great to be the Bank of Startups, which is that nobody on Earth is more of a herd animal than Silicon Valley venture capitalists. What you want, as a bank, is a certain amount of diversity among your depositors. If some depositors get spooked and take their money out, and other depositors evaluate your balance sheet and decide things are fine and keep their money in, and lots more depositors keep their money in because they simply don’t pay attention to banking news, then you have a shot at muddling through your problems.

But if all of your depositors are startups with the same handful of venture capitalists on their boards, and all those venture capitalists are competing with each other to Add Value and Be Influencers and Do The Current Thing by calling all their portfolio companies to say “hey, did you hear, everyone’s taking money out of Silicon Valley Bank, you should too,” then all of your depositors will take their money out at the same time.”

  • Bloomberg’s incomparable Matt Levine, in an instructive and entertaining piece (behind a paywall, alas) about the SVB fiasco. Luckily, my friend Hap (Whom God Preserve) generously gifted me a copy, which had me chortling over afternoon tea.

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Julian Bream | Rondo in A minor (Dionisio Aguado)

Link


Long Read of the Day

Willard McCarty, one of the wisest and best-read scholars I know, wrote with an interesting question. He’d been reading Joseph Weizenbaum’s Computer Power and Human Reason and was struck (as many of us have been) by a famous passage about the impact that his ELIZA chatbot had on people who interacted with it. The passage reads:

I was startled to see how quickly and how very deeply people conversing with DOCTOR became emotionally involved with the computer and how unequivocally they anthropomorphized it. Once my secretary, who had watched me work on the program for many months and therefore surely knew it to be merely a computer program, started conversing with it. After only a few interchanges with it, she asked me to leave the room.

“In all the quotations and citations of this anecdote I have seen,” Willard writes, “none gives the secretary’s name. This is of course not surprising when we consider the attitudes of the time, perhaps especially in the technical environment of a computer science department at MIT. One such citation declares that her name is unknown. I would very much like to know it — not enough to book a flight and spend the necessary time in the MIT Archive with Weizenbaum’s papers, but still I think what she did is highly significant and so would like to put it into print.”

He’s right. This woman’s reactions to the chatbot has suddenly acquired a contemporary resonance, as millions of our fellow-humans are unhinged by their interactions with ChatGPT and impute some human-like properties to it. Joe’s secretary deserves to be credited as the first person to have experienced these thoughts.

Pondering Willard’s inquiry, I (of course) set off down a rabbit-hole which turned up The Samantha Test, a thoughtful New Yorker essay by Brian Christian about Spike Jonze’s film Her which, on reflection, struck me as being an appropriate Long Read for today.

Consider this para, towards the end:

So where does that leave us? “Her,” not unlike the Turing Test itself, says more about the nature of human intimacy than it does about the limits of computation. As both an author and a lover of literature, I would be a hypocrite to condemn too strongly the power of indirect or one-way intimacy. I run the disembodied thoughts of some other mind through my own, like code, and feel close to someone else, living or dead, while risking nothing, offering nothing. And yet the communion, I would argue, is real. Books themselves are perhaps the first chatbots: long-winded and poor listeners, they nonetheless have the power to make the reader feel known, understood, challenged, spurred to greatness, not alone.

I hope you enjoy it. I did.


More on Silicon Valley Bank

Interesting details this morning from Tortoise Media’s invaluable daily update:

$42 billion – withdrawals from SVB last Thursday alone

minus $1 billion – balance of the bank’s main accounts by close of business on Friday

$250,000 – maximum deposit usually insured by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in the event of a run, although the Fed lifted that cap at the weekend ensuring all depositors at SVB would be made whole

96 – percentage share of SVB customers with balances over $250,000 as of last week

And now for the UK angle:

£7 billion – deposits at SVB UK, the subsidiary sold this morning to HSBC for £1

Talk about a fire sale.


Academy of Euphemism

It’s a little-known fact that Music Examiners are wizards at wrapping criticism in encouraging syrup. I know this because I am married to a music teacher, who occasionally reads out some of these masterpieces of euphemism from examiners’ reports as a way of stopping me doing what is laughingly called my ‘work’.

Here’s an example:

”A positive tempo was adopted and largely maintained. It was quite heavy in touch for the most part, though some dynamic levels emerged. A few smudges and anxious moments, but much articulation was clear.” 23/30


My commonplace booklet

Well, well. Tom Cruise, arguably the biggest star in movie history, and the man who brought Hollywood back from the dead after the pandemic, has never won an Oscar.


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