Great Depression 2.0

Willem Buiter’s been thinking about what happens next if the US Congress balks again. Here’s his scenario:

# The US stock market tanks. Bank shares collapse, as do the valuations of all highly leveraged financial institutions. Weaker versions of this occur in Europe, in Japan and in the emerging markets.
# CDS spreads for banks explode, as will those of all highly leveraged financial institutions. Credits spreads generally take on loan-shark proportions, even for reputable borrowers. Again the rest of the world will experience a slightly milder version of this.
# No US bank will lend to any other US bank or any other highly leveraged institution. The same will happen elsewhere. Remaining sources of external finance for banks, other than the facilities created by the central banks and the Treasuries, will dry up.
# Banks and other highly leveraged institutions will try to unload assets at fire-sale prices in illiquid markets. Even assets not viewed as toxic before will become unsaleable at any price.
# The interaction of a growing lack of funding liquidity and increasing market illiquidity will destroy the banks’ business models.
# Banks will stop providing credit to households and to non-financial enterprises.
# Banks will collapse, both through balance sheet insolvency and through liquidity insolvency. No bank will be safe, not even the household names for whom the crisis has thus far brought more opportunities than disasters.
# Other highly leveraged financial institutions collapse on a large scale.
# Households and non-financial businesses revert to financial autarky, among wide-spread defaults and insolvencies.
# Consumer demand and investment demand collapse. Unemployment shoots up.
# The government suspends all trading in financial stocks until further notice.
# The government nationalises all US banks and other highly leveraged financial institutions. The shareholders get nothing up front and have to wait for an eventual re-privatisation or liquididation to find out whether they are left with anything at all. Holders of bank debt get a sizeable haircut ‘up front’ on the face value of the debt and have part of the remainder converted into equity that shares the fate of the old equity.

None of this is unavoidable, he thinks, “provided the US Congress grows up and adopts forthwith something close to the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act as a first, modest but necessary step towards re-establishing functioning securitisation markets and restoring financial health to the banking sector. Cutting off your nose to spite your face is not a sensible alternative.”

And, he adds:

PS. My remaining financial wealth is now kept in a (small) old sock in an undisclosed location.

Now, where did I put those socks?

Getting us out of the mess we’re in

Simon Caulkin has some interesting reflections on the managerial aspects of the crisis…

The credit crunch conclusively demonstrates that we can no longer afford a corporate model that generates repeated crises for society as a whole as a byproduct of pursuing vast rewards for a few. This makes a mockery of the corporate social responsibility movement, of which the City is a pillar. CSR is simply incompatible with the unbridled incentive schemes, lemming-like pursuit of risk and unaccountability that have produced today’s meltdown. It is time to bring CSR inside – to do what New Labour flirted with ever so briefly in 1997 and then abjectly abandoned – and lay on companies the formal obligation to take into account the wider interests of all stakeholders, including the community, on pain of having their charter removed. To the conventionalists who object that the notion of benefiting all stakeholders is a recipe for fudge and compromise, tell that to rivals of Toyota (largest auto company in the world), Whole Foods Market (fastest-growing retailer), John Lewis, and many other successful companies that include wider social wellbeing in their corporate aims…

And, in case anyone thinks that the Cameroonians will do any better, here’s a sobering thought from Nick Mathiason’s piece about the cosy relationship that New Labour cultivated with the City.:

But just as Labour grapples with regulating the City, it seems likely that the reins of power will be seized by the Conservatives, bankrolled by hedge-fund managers, spread-betting tycoons and blue-blooded Tory bankers. It could soon be political business as usual.

Process: an embedded reaction to prior stupidity

One of the things that dismays me is the pathological bureaucratisation of some of the organisations with which I have to deal, so this perceptive observation by Clay Shirky struck a chord.

Process is the feature creep of organizations. In the same way software has to have features, groups have to have process. But like software, process creep in groups is insidious — each additional check in or form seems to cost little and add much, but over time, the cumulative overhead of process can hamstring an organization, almost without their noticing.

Six or seven years ago, ATT asked me to spend some time helping them figure out their web hosting offerings, and after some preliminary work, it became clear that there would be no mainstream hosting business, because the cost to the customer would be too high to be competitive. This was not because ATT was buying expensive hardware; it was because their minimum hosting processes imagined layers and layers of dev, stage, and live servers, and a complex array of user management interfaces. When ATT asked how the existing hosting companies could provide their services so cheaply, I said that the competition was simply offering shell access, and that people could FTP anything they liked to the server or telnet in and write stuff directly on a live box.

ATT was aghast, of course, at such laxity, but in fact, it was this kind of simple, process-lite attitude that helped the net spread generally, and it was ATT’s “Quality of Service” attitude that marginalized them.

This is many stories, of course, hundreds of stories, thousands of stories. It’s why Berners-Lee succeeded while Nelson failed, it’s why markets work better than central planning, because central planning is process made supreme, and it’s even why Open Source works though it has less process than commercial firms. This is not to say that there is not a process to Open Source efforts, but rather that it is considerably simpler than the process adopted by Serious Commercial Software Firms®, who for years misunderstood Open Source, because they assumed no one could build software with that little process.

Customer service the PayPal way

Forgive me, but I thought this account in The INQUIRER from a frustrated PayPal user was worth quoting extensively.

1. Paypal account used happily for 3 years.
2. January: Sold a laptop computer on Ebay. Buyer paid with fraudulently accessed Paypal account. Paypal charges the cost of laptop back to my account, leaving it -£700 (and me out of pocket, despite being the victim of internet fraud enabled by Paypal).
3. Crime therefore reported to London Metropolitan Police. (Crime ref xxxxxx/2008). Officer investigating asks me to hold off paying account balance until crime investigation resolved or ended as account details may be needed as evidence.
4. Paypal requests balance of account payment for £700.
5. I contact Paypal, give crime reference number, mention advice of Met officer. Expect this to be the end of the matter until crime investigation resolved.
6. Receive frequent Paypal emails asking me to restore balance. Do not, as against advice of police investigating.
7. My parents (?) receive call from debt collector instructed by Paypal at their house asking for payment. Obviously distressing to them as elderly.
8. Call debt collector, give crime reference number and explain situation. They promise not to call again given police advice.
9. Call Paypal, where customer service rep explains that there is no way to prevent debt collection proceeding despite police advice. Despite advising that interfering with a police investigation is a criminal offence, simply restates that Paypal requires payment and will be proceeding with debt collection and regular calls to my mother’s house.
10. Receive call from debt collection agency regarding outstanding balance. Explain situation, restate crime reference number already on their file, they promise not to call again (again).
11. Receive call from debt collection agency two days later. Am unable to return call.
12. Finally cave and attempt to pay off account balance against advice of London Metropolitan Police in a bid to prevent further calls to the house of my elderly parents by debt collection agency acting on behalf of Paypal.
13. Paypal rejects payment attempt through website, stating that I am not allowed to add the requisite amount of funds in one go – and that this is a measure taken in order to prevent fraud.
14. Proceed to pay half the total in a bid to pay the second half when Paypal ‘allows’ me.
15. Paypal closes account, preventing me from paying off balance, and requests that I contact ‘appeals@paypal.com’. Presumably now sending hit men around to collect payment that system itself refuses to take.

And so here I am, emailing the address requested. Unable to pay off a Paypal balance that the London Metropolitan Police advises me not to pay, yet receiving calls from my parents who are being harassed by debt collection agencies who are distressed by the situation.

At this stage I would simply like to be allowed to pay off the balance, close my Paypal account and be content never to use the service ever again. Would you be able to call me on 44 (0)xxx xxxxxx so that we can please arrange this?

Yours in hope,

W.H.
Beleagured Paypal customer.

What comes next? You guessed it:

We apologize but we are unable to respond to inquiries sent to this e-mail address. Your e-mail was routed to an unmonitored mailbox and as such will not be reviewed.