Quack, quack

BBC2’s Newsnight had an interesting item last night about the strange case of ‘Sir’ Allen Stanford, the flamboyant custodian of $8 billion of other people’s money. At one point they had a former SEC lawyer and a financial blogger on the programme. The presenter asked them both essentially the same question — why hadn’t Stanford been rumbled earlier? (That’s getting to be quite a popular question at the moment.)

The answers revealed something interesting about the role of the blogosphere. The SEC is staffed mainly by lawyers who — being lawyers — are looking for (a) infringement of US laws and (b) certainty — or at any rate cases that will stand up in court. The core of Allen’s operation was based in Antigua, which is not US territory, so it seems that the SEC’s lawyers felt obliged to turn a blind eye to the curious goings-on there.

In contrast, financial bloggers like Alex Dalmady are free to look at whatever piques their curiosity. And Mr Dalmady was most intrigued by what was going on in Stanford’s bank. And, unlike lawyers, bloggers don’t need certainty. They can follow their noses — which is exactly what Mr Dalmady did. His “Duck Tales” (in which he aired his suspicions about Stanford and now available as a pdf download) is a little masterpiece. The title comes from the old adage that “if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it is a duck”.

En passant: it’s always irritating to hear journalists unctuously using the ludicrous handles of ‘Sir’ and ‘Lord’. But it’s even more nauseating when they’re applied to cretins like Stanford and Jeffrey Archer. When I’m supreme ruler this practice will be abolished.

Evolution of a meme

Fascinating piece in Slate by Chris Wilson.

Late last fall, a chain letter titled “16 Random Things About Me” began to chew its way through Facebook. The author of one of these notes would itemize her personality into ’16 random things, facts, habits, or goals,’ then tag 16 friends who would be prompted to write their own lists. And so on and so on. Similar navel-gazing letters had popped up over the years through e-mail and on blogs, MySpace, Friendster, and the venerable blogging site LiveJournal. The Facebook strain had a good run, but by the end of 2008 it appeared to have stagnated.

Then something curious happened: It mutated. Since everyone who participates is supposed to paste the original instructions into her own note, it’s easy to tinker with the rules. Soon enough, 16 things (and 16 tagged friends) morphed into 15—and 17 and 22 and 35 and even 100. As the structure crumbled, more users toyed with the boundaries. Like any disease, ‘Random Things’ was mutating in hopes of finding a strain that uniquely suited its host. In this case, the right number was vital to its survival: The more people who are tagged, the more likely the note is to spread. The longer the list, though, the more daunting it is to compose and the fewer participants will be roped in.

By mid-to-late January, “25 Random Things About Me” had warded off its competitors. Once the letter settled on 25 things (a perfect square, just like 16) the phenomenon exploded. The data we collected reveal a clear tipping point around this time.

The article has a couple of intriguing charts — e.g.

Wilson showed his data to an epidemiologist who told him that they displayed the “classic exponential growth of an epidemic curve.” Her view was that

’25 Things’ authors can be seen as ‘contagious’ under what’s known as a ‘susceptible-infected-recovered’ model for the spread of disease. Think of ’25 Things’ authors as being contagious for one day—the day they tag a bunch of their friends.

She found that, for that one day, the growth parameter of the ’25 Things’ disease during its ascent phase (roughly until the beginning of February) was 0.27. This means that, on average, each ’25 Things’ writer inspired 1.27 new notes.

It’s ironic that I came on this on Darwin’s birthday. What it suggests is that there was something about 25 things that made that particular variation ‘fitter’ than its competitors. I’m surprised — I would have predicted that a smaller number — seven perhaps — would have been more likely to triumph. But maybe FaceBookers have more interesting lives than mere bloggers.

Even more ironic is the fact that the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life today reported that 63% of Americans reject Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection.

What a strange country is the US.

Digital Domain – Why Television Still Shines

Randall Stross thinks television is doing just fine as print media decline. “Television stands out”, he writes,

“as the one old-media business with surprising resilience. Though we are spending a record amount of time online, including a record amount of time watching video, we are also watching record amounts of very old-fashioned television, according to Nielsen Media Research. Our attachment to the medium, of course, is obscured by the splintering of our attention across so many cable offerings, in addition to the major networks.”

Hmmm… Note the reference to ‘splintering’. Broadcast TV — as distinct from narrowcast video — is a declining industry. I fear Professor Stross has missed the point of what’s going on. Just ask ITV.

‘Digital Britain’ filleted for commenting

Here’s a terrific idea — a version of ‘Lord’ Carter’s Digital Britain Interim Report chunked in such a way as to make commenting easy. Find it here.

Warning: before reading some paragraphs of the Interim Report’s text (esp the stuff about IP protection) it might be wise to have a sick-bag handy. What you have to remember that this is a document composed mainly by guys who have been conditioned in the old push-media world. And who think that calling for universal 2mbps broadband coverage is an enlightened forward-looking vision.

(Interesting also that the image used on the Department of Culture Media and Sport’s website announcing the Interim Report — reproduced above — is a gif. Clearly IP madness runs deep.)

Flickr now has over 100 million geotagged photos

From the Code: Flickr Developer Blog.

Over the weekend we broke the Hundred Million geotagged photos, actually 100,868,302 at last count, mark. If we remember that we passed the 3 billion photos recently and round the figure down a little that means does calculations on fingers that around 3.333% of photos have geo data, or one in every 30 photos that get uploaded.

In the last two and a half years there have been roughly as many geotagged photos as the total photos upload to Flickr in its first two years of existence.

Thanks to Brian for the link.

Journalists as windsocks

Andrew Currah has written a thoughtful piece in the Guardian based on his report, What’s Happening to Our News? which he wrote as a Visiting Fellow at the Reuters Institute in Oxford.

As more news consumers migrate online, the clickstream is likely to assume an even more important role. In the future, it has the capacity to not only transform the nature and breadth of the news agenda – but also to redefine well-established values.

In an effort to boost hits and advertising, publishers are already in danger of diluting their brand by allowing it to become the digital equivalent of a windsock – given shape by the prevailing direction of the clickstream rather than by a core of long-term editorial values.

The basic logic of a webcentric strategy is to maximise the size of the audience around the news, for as long as possible. But a rush to generate clicks may in fact erode the distinctiveness of the brand and its connection to a specific audience. By anchoring their brand identities in softer content, news publishers risk losing traffic to specialised sites that provide showbusiness and sports news more effectively – and also to advertisers who are increasingly demanding engaged, rather than transitory, eyeballs.

So what should news publishers be doing? A more viable strategy may be for them to identify and follow ‘editorial isolines’ – points of consistent editorial judgment that would establish them as digital "anchors", rather than digital windsocks. In practice, that would entail a strategic focus on certain kinds of coverage, and audiences reflecting existing editorial and brand values.

The report (available as a pdf download) is worth reading in full.

Job Loss in the Age of Blogs and Twitter

Interesting WSJ.com piece.

Internet games, gambling and other forms of online entertainment have seen significant surges in use in the several months since the economic downturn deepened. Social-networking services like Facebook, blogs and discussion forums — all well-known time sinks even during good times — are also seeing strong growth. Some purveyors of online entertainment say business has never been so good for them.

Robert Kraut, a professor of social psychology and human computer interaction at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, says games and other forms of entertainment can provide escape for people steeped in anxieties about the economy. “There’s evidence these distractions have a psychological benefit because they prevent a downward spiral of rumination,” says Dr. Kraut.

Get Carter

Charles Arthur is not impressed by ‘Lord’ Stephen Carter’s Interim ‘Digital Britain’ Report.

I’m still reeling from having to read the word porridge of the interim report on Digital Britain, handed down yesterday by (Lord) Stephen Carter. What a mish-mash of quangos, incomplete thinking, and bars set so low you can walk over them. 2 megabit per second connections for all by 2012? When people in South Korean cities today think things are bad if their speed drops to 30Mbps? A “rights agency” funded by content providers and ISPs (ie, in the end, us) that will come together to dream up a way to “enable technical copyright-support solutions that work for both consumers and content creators”?

I have never, ever heard of a quango writing a piece of code, nor even spotting the best stuff. (Generally, it’s quite the opposite: hello, English NHS record computerisation.) Getting the “right” DRM is an intractable problem. You’ll never reach the end: the only DRM that really works for consumers is none; the only DRM that really works for content producers is either zero or lots. But not all content producers agree with zero DRM. There is no single solution, and the Rights Agency will simply burn up our money failing to find it.

What’s more concerning is the Carter approach to “net neutrality”. That, you’ll recall, is the proposition that a network operator should not discriminate against data packets purely on the basis of where they originate. Thus packets with video or sound should, as they pass over the network, be treated in the same way as other video or sound packets (they tend to get priority over plain old text); data packets should not be held up purely because of where they started.

[…]

Carter, however, suggests that net neutrality is a waste of the chance to squeeze some money from customers. (That’s us – you know, the people funding that Rights Agency above.)

Spot on. Carter’s effort is an embarrassing document, the product of an old-style push-media mentality.

The Celtic kitten

Ann Marie Hourihane is an Irish Times journalist who wrote a good book a few years ago about the so-called ‘Celtic Tiger’ — Ireland when it was the poster child of European development. Now she’s back doing the same thing for the bust. Last week she went to Merlin, an auction house that specialises in disposing of cars and vans that have been repossessed by hire-purchase companies. Her account is a good example of sensitive, perceptive reporting which encapsulates an impersonal phenomenon in human terms.

Serkan Erke is from Turkey, and at the auction warehouse, his work colleagues call him Sergio. He looks at the date on the label and says: “This one is fresh. I just did it today.” An empty suitcase stands by itself. It is a mournful business. Imagine if someone cleaned out your car. These are the contents of a Volkswagen Golf. There is a high-heeled patent-leather shoe. There are two carrier bags of Christmas presents, still wrapped. Sergio could not decide if these gifts were for the owner of the car, or from her. “I didn’t look, because it’s personal.” But the gifts are all wrapped in various types of paper, so I think they might have been bought by the former owner of the car. Maybe she didn’t have the time, or the heart, to distribute them. We also find an unopened bottle of vodka. “You’d be sorry for her,” says Sergio.

There’s a young man’s sports kit here, from another Volkswagen Golf, with his soccer boots, his underpants, and his Fructis hair gel. The hair gel is called Manga Head. The jar reads “Free style putty for messed-up spikes”. Out of a Mercedes comes an Evening Herald , some Turkish Delight and a guide to some bloodstock sales.

If these personal items are not claimed within a year, they are dumped. Until then they are stored in the loft above the valeting bay at Merlin. A pink heart-shaped cushion that says “Baby on Board”. An entire toolbox, carefully organised, with the owner’s initials carved into the head of the mallet. “There’s a barbecue around here somewhere,” says Sergio. “And sometimes a pile of buggies.”

Sergio lives in Navan with his Irish wife and their two little girls. “The finance companies gave the money so easy,” he says. “People can only afford a Micra, but they get a BMW. I’d never get finance. If they take your car away from you, you can’t work. I drive 90 miles a day.”

She attends an auction. It is, she writes,

like a circus. For some time now there have been so many cars and vans to sell that Merlin has been running a two-lane auction twice a week. Two lanes of cars, two rostrums, two auctioneers running simultaneously. According to Patrick O’Reilly, in 2007 the average value of cars Merlin sold at auction was €8,000-€9,000. In 2008 it was €13,000-€14,000. In June 2006 private buyers made up 7 per cent of Merlin’s customers. Now they make up more than 40 per cent.

Repossessions of commercial vehicles have gone up 147 per cent since July 2007 and prices of commercial vehicles have come down by up to 50 per cent. The repossession of private cars has gone up 100 per cent since September – and is expected to exceed 5,000 private vehicles this year.

Hourihane also went to see a dealer in Galway whose showroom I’ve often passed when it was crammed with gleaming, top-of-the-range Mercedes cars.

James McCormack started working in the family car business, Western Motors, in 1988. His mother Anne took over the company when his father died in 1965.

James is her youngest child and the one who always loved cars. “My first car was a Golf diesel. I had the stereo strapped to the passenger seat. Great car.”

Now Western Motors employs 40 people at its huge showroom just outside Galway and another 16 in its new Drogheda showroom, which opened in January last year. “A disastrous year to open a new business,” as McCormack ruefully puts it. “This time last year I had cars arriving on transporters and people literally standing waiting for them. They were pointing up at the transporter and saying ‘I want that one’. These were €180,000, top-of-the-range Mercedes. In January 2008 we would have delivered 10 €100,000-plus cars, maybe 20. This year we delivered one.”

The only expensive car McCormack sold this year went to a green-energy millionaire…

Because the boom in Ireland was so dramatic, the downturn is correspondingly disastrous. And on top of purely economic factors, there is the unravelling of criminality and corruption in the banking, planning and property-development sectors.

It looks as though the country even had it’s own cut-price Ponzi scheme. Even to those inured to the pervasive corruption of Irish politics and planning, it’s shocking.

Needless to say, though, nobody responsible for the chaos is in the least bit apologetic. Sean FitzPatrick was a big mover and shaker (and Fianna Fail groupie) who was Chairman of Anglo-Irish Bank — until it was revealed that he was ‘warehousing’ his colossal (€129 million) loans — i.e. passing them temporarily to a building society for a few days every year — to keep them out of the Bank’s annual report. This ingenious practice apparently escaped the notice of the Irish banking regulator, but eventually was too gross to conceal. FitzPatrick resigned on December 18th, issuing a statement that while what he had done might have been “inappropriate” it was certainly not illegal.

Another Anglo-Irish investor was businessman Sean Quinn — who incidentally lost €1 billion from his shares in the enterprise. At the end of October last year, the regulator slapped a fine of €3.25 million on his insurance company and fined him €200,000 personally for failing to notify a loan of €288 million to a related company. It turned out that the loan was made to fill the hole left by Anglo Irish’s collapsing share price.

Was Quinn abashed or apologetic about any of this? Not a bit of it.

Responding to negative criticism of his family’s stock market investments, he dismissed speculation of any wrongdoing as “outlandish”. Mr Quinn resigned from the board of Quinn Insurance last October for failing to notify the Financial Regulator about loans of €288 million to other Quinn companies which were used to invest in Anglo.

Commenting on this yesterday, he said that “there was no big issue” with this loan, and while it was a breach of regulations he did not view it as improper.

“We said at the time, and we still say, there was never any risk to policyholders, shareholders, there was no risk to anybody,” he said.

“We don’t owe anybody any great apology,” he continued.

There’s a joke going round: “Q. What’s the difference between Ireland and Iceland? A: One letter and six months.” But it’s not a joke really. Ireland is effectively bankrupt. Moody’s, the credit rating agency, says that it’s downgrading the country’s rating from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’. At the world Economic Forum, Peter Sutherland, the former EU Commissioner and current Chairman of BP said — on the record — that Ireland’s economy has remained afloat solely because of the country’s membership of the euro. If the country were not in the single European currency, he went on, its economy would be “in a state of destruction”.

He described as “absolutely appropriate” the comparison between Ireland and Iceland, a non-euro state whose economy has collapsed, made by European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso during a discussion on the European economy in Davos.

“He was quite right to make it,” Mr Sutherland said. “There is no point trying to pretend now what our condition is. That condition is deeply, deeply worrying, so it behoves everybody to recognise this and to react accordingly.”

So what happens next? The government is committed to publishing its recovery survival plan next Thursday. It had better be good. In those boom years my countrymen “lost the run of themselves” as Frank McDonald puts it. They began to believe their own bullshit. They allowed costs to run out of control — to the point where Ireland became more expensive than any other country in Europe. A few months ago I went to a reunion of my ’68 Engineering class. The dinner was held in one of the new generation of ‘country house’ hotels that mushroomed in Ireland during the boom. Dinner cost €125 a head — excluding wine. And it wasn’t anything special — “starvation at €100 a plate” as my robust brother-in-law puts it. I’ve had better meals for £15 in Cambridge. It’s nuts — and it cannot continue.

Garret FitzGerald, the sainted former Taoiseach, has been banging on about this forever. He returns to the subject in his column yesterday.

What happened in this short period was that a doubling of current public spending sparked off a severe bout of inflation, causing prices here to rise two-and-a-half times faster than in the rest of the euro zone, ie by 30 per cent, as against 12 per cent in the economies of our EU partners. That 16 per cent deterioration in our competitiveness relative to our European partners totally halted the growth of Irish goods exports, losing us an important share of world markets.

That disastrous development, although repeatedly highlighted in this column, attracted little notice elsewhere, and even today receives much less attention than it deserves. Yet the whole future of our economy, after we emerge from our present multiple difficulties, will depend upon the extent to which we now take this opportunity to tackle effectively the excess of our pay levels above those of our EU competitors.

Will my countrymen take this opportunity? Don’t hold your breath.

LATER: Thanks to Kevin Cryan for spotting a typo.