‘Systemic failure’…

… is a phrase much in vogue this week, as the British government struggles to cope with a week of disasters. Systemic means “of, or pertaining to, a system”, and it is quite clear that the failures in the prison/deportation arrangements which allowed over a thousand convicted foreigners to escape deportation were indeed systemic in this sense. As a matter of fact, most large-scale failures are.

This point is intelligently made by Martin Kettle in his Guardian column this morning when he writes:

Leaving John Prescott’s extramarital affair to one side (although, ironically, the deputy prime minister may be the biggest political loser of the week), it is foolish to pretend that the prisons and health crises are not symptomatic of something larger. It was not mere coincidence that two big departments found themselves under fire this week. Away from the front pages and the TV news bulletins, plenty of other departments are also undergoing similar heavy pounding: the Treasury for the lost billions of the tax credit system; the Ministry of Defence for persistent cost overruns; Defra for the bungled introduction of the new system of farm subsidies; the Department of Constitutional Affairs for an overspend on legal aid that will lead to the loss of hundreds of jobs in the court service.

These are not personal failures on the part of ministers, though not all ministers are as brave as Charles Clarke in fessing up to their failures. The fact that Clarke and Hewitt have both had a horrid week is down to something more than the former’s combative brusqueness or the latter’s unfortunate schoolmarmish manner. Both, by any reasonable account, are talented and competent. What is wrong is clearly “systemic”, as Clarke put it about the prisoner releases, or even institutional. This week’s events have exposed some of the wider limitations of Labour’s way of managing public-service reform, as well as Labour’s way of governing more generally – and perhaps even some of the limitations of the modern state itself.

The problem is that the logic of the “systemic failure” analysis is never followed up. What’s needed is systemic management of these very large and complex programmes, that is to say, an approach to design and management that is informed by systems thinking. Until we get that kind of approach, we are always going to have systemic failures, because we are blind to the interactions (or lack thereof) which cause them.

When one of my former OU colleagues, Professor Jake Chapman, went to work part-time for the Cabinet Office, he spotted immediately that the absence of systemic thinking was a crippling defect in the governmental apparatus, and he co-operated with us to produce an Open University course, Making Policies Work: systems thinking in government and management, as a way of helping people understand what is needed. Maybe we should offer it for free to every civil servant in the country?

Iceland comes first in broadband access

Who’d have thought it? BBC News Online: Iceland comes first in broadband.

According to the [OECD] Iceland has 78,017 broadband subscribers and South Korea 12,190,711.

TOP FIVE BROADBAND OECD COUNTRIES

Iceland: 26.7%
Korea: 25.4%
Netherlands: 25.3%
Denmark: 25%
Switzerland: 23.1%

The leading countries in broadband use per capita all had more than 25% of their net users subscribing to such a service. Iceland led the field on 26.7%.

By comparison, the UK was ranked 12th with 15.9%, just behind the US with 16.8%.

Life after television, contd.

More grist for my mill

We may be known as a nation of couch potatoes, but it seems that Britons are grasping the 21st century with both hands: we now spend more time watching the web than watching television, according to internet giant Google.

A survey conducted on behalf of the search engine found that the average Briton spends around 164 minutes online every day, compared with 148 minutes watching television. That is equivalent to 41 days a year spent surfing the web: more than almost any other activity apart from sleeping and working.

Television addiction has been Britain’s national pastime for years, but experts agree that viewers around the country are increasingly switching on their computer screens instead of their TV sets. And it is a phenomenon that is set to grow, with two thirds of respondents in the Google survey saying that they had increased the time spent online in the last year.

An ecological analysis of the Cole case

Ashley Cole, a well-known footballer, is sueing the News of the World, a rag, for libel, even though the paper hasn’t actually named him in a story alleging that a leading footballer is gay. Here’s the Observer‘s report:

The News of the World ran its first, heavily trailed, story about Premiership footballers on 12 February under the headline ‘Gay as you go’. The paper claimed to have seen pictures of two Premiership football stars, and a well-known male music industry figure, engaged in some bizarre sex acts with a mobile phone.

Although it didn’t name the men (and still hasn’t), it gave clues about their identity, and its sister paper the Sun ran a photo of Cole a few days later, implying (albeit jokingly) that he may have been involved. A second News of the World story a fortnight ago contained more allegations, and provided readers with further titillating clues about their identities. So far, so harmless, perhaps. But in the meantime, furious speculation about the incident had ended up on several websites, several of which named Cole as one of the men involved. A doctored photo of two of those involved, published in the NoW but blurred to hide their identities, was printed, uncensored, on the internet.

Why is this interesting? Well, if you take an ecological view of the media, you start to look for symbiotic relationships. It’s been obvious for a long time that certains kinds of blogs are, to a large extent, parasitic feeders on mainstream media (as the Trent Lott case demonstrated). But now we have an example of parasitism the other way round — mainstream media feeding off the Net. The News of the World didn’t dare to print the photograph it claimed supported its story, so it blurred the image and then left it to Internet speculation to de-Photoshop it, as it were.

The new media ecology

Today’s (extended) Observer article

It’s amazing how quickly we take things for granted. Think back to 1993. John Major was Prime Minister, Tony Blair still looked like Bambi and Bill Clinton had just become President of the US. Only grown-ups had mobile phones, no one outside of academic and research labs had an email address, and a URL – now that was something exotic! Amazon was a river, a googol was the technical term for an enormous number (one followed by 100 zeros), eBay and iPod were typos, and there were quaint little shops on the high street called ‘travel agents’…

This was adapted, at the editor’s request, from a lecture I gave last week in the Science Museum.

Who do you trust?

This morning’s Observer column

One of the more interesting news items of last week was the report that Tiffany and Company, the celebrated New York jeweller, is suing eBay, the online auction company, for ‘facilitating the sale of counterfeit goods’ over the internet. It turns out that undercover agents working for the company secretly bought 200 ‘Tiffany’ items in eBay auctions and found that three out of four were counterfeited. The case will go to trial in the US later this year…

Living without Microsoft…

… is back online. We took it offline after the old version (running on PostNuke) was hacked by person or persons unknown, and used the downtime to ponder feedback from users and rethink the concept. Our general conclusion is that the big need is for a site that is intelligible to non-technical users, non-doctrinaire and pragmatic. Most people don’t have strong views about computers or software — they just want them to work, be reliable and not cost too much. Some of them now realise that there may be alternatives to Microsoft that might work for them and need to know more. We will do our best to help them understand what’s possible and what might be involved in making the switch. Now all we need is an extra 6 hours in a day…

Old media and the Net

The most interesting question is not whether Friends Reunited will save ITV, but if ITV will destroy Friends Reunited. That depends on the extent to which Allen and his management team leave their acquisition alone.

Television people are constitutionally incapable of dealing with the web because they have been socially and professionally conditioned in the world of ‘push’ media with its attendant control freakery and inbuilt assumptions about the passivity and stupidity of audiences. Very little of their experience or skills are useful in a ‘pull’ medium like the web, where the consumer is active, fickle and informed, and history to date suggests that if they are put in charge of internet operations they screw up.

My guess is that Allen & Co will not be able to resist the temptation to meddle with their new toy…

Message: I Care About those Black Folks

My favourite NYT columnists are Paul Krugman and Frank Rich. Here is Rich writing about Dubya’s response to Katrina.

This White House doesn’t hate all pictures, of course. It loves those by Karl Rove’s Imagineers, from the spectacularly lighted Statue of Liberty backdrop of Mr. Bush’s first 9/11 anniversary speech to his “Top Gun” stunt to Thursday’s laughably stagy stride across the lawn to his lectern in Jackson Square. (Message: I am a leader, not that vacationing slacker who first surveyed the hurricane damage from my presidential jet.)

The most odious image-mongering, however, has been Mr. Bush’s repeated deployment of African-Americans as dress extras to advertise his “compassion.” In 2000, the Republican convention filled the stage with break dancers and gospel singers, trying to dispel the memory of Mr. Bush’s craven appearance at Bob Jones University when it forbade interracial dating. (The few blacks in the convention hall itself were positioned near celebrities so they’d show up in TV shots.) In 2004, the Bush-Cheney campaign Web site had a page titled “Compassion” devoted mainly to photos of the president with black people, Colin Powell included.

Some of these poses are re-enacted in the “Hurricane Relief” photo gallery currently on display on the White House Web site. But this time the old magic isn’t working. The “compassion” photos are outweighed by the cinéma vérité of poor people screaming for their lives. The government effort to keep body recovery efforts in New Orleans as invisible as the coffins from Iraq was abandoned when challenged in court by CNN…

Quagmire: the Saudi perspective

From the New York Times

WASHINGTON, Sept. 22 – Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, said Thursday that he had been warning the Bush administration in recent days that Iraq was hurtling toward disintegration, a development that he said could drag the region into war. “There is no dynamic now pulling the nation together,” he said in a meeting with reporters at the Saudi Embassy here. “All the dynamics are pulling the country apart.” He said he was so concerned that he was carrying this message “to everyone who will listen” in the Bush administration.

Prince Saud’s statements, some of the most pessimistic public comments on Iraq by a Middle Eastern leader in recent months, were in stark contrast to the generally upbeat assessments that the White House and the Pentagon have been offering.