Doing nicely, thank you

From today’s New York Times Blog

Investors are all in a tizzy that Apple is only promising them a 30 percent growth, year over year, in its first-quarter revenue. But looking at the company’s fourth-quarter 2007 results, it’s clear that the company is doing very, very well.

Of all the blizzard of statistics that get thrown out on an earnings call, here’s the one that cuts through the clutter: $3 billion. That’s the amount of cash Apple stuffed in its bank accounts during the last three months of the year, giving it $18 billion in reserves…

But iPod sales are levelling off in the US. Market reaching saturation?

Rich pickings under Labour

From The Observer this morning…

The rich have prospered under New Labour, and the top 10 per cent of adults now take home 40 per cent of the all the income earned in Britain, according to new analysis by the authoritative Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Despite a battery of redistributive policies enacted by Gordon Brown in his decade as Chancellor to boost the incomes of the poorest in society, the bumper sums earned in the City as the equity markets boomed have helped to keep those at the top moving ahead…

Hmm… I bet they will do even better under Cameron.

Verily, it is written that Apple selleth the Air

This morning’s Observer column

It’s that time of year again. Last week the Church of Apple Resurgent gathered in San Francisco for its annual congregation. The faithful were granted an audience with the Blessed Steve Jobs, who revealed unto them what miracles he had wrought since they were last gathered together. First, he showed them a Time Capsule, which can bring back the past and preserve memories of days gone by…

Jobs on Kindle

From a conversation with John Markoff

Today he had a wide range of observations on the industry, including the Amazon Kindle book reader, which he said would go nowhere largely because Americans have stopped reading.

“It doesn’t matter how good or bad the product is, the fact is that people don’t read anymore,” he said. “Forty percent of the people in the U.S. read one book or less last year. The whole conception is flawed at the top because people don’t read anymore.”

That Jobs keynote

Direct link here (courtesy of Engadget). These annual presentations are the hottest tickets on the trade circuit, but this one had an oddly perfunctory air, despite the raft of new products and services that Steve Jobs announced. The audience was oddly muted and respectful; new products or features were greeted not with the raucous, foot-stomping, whistling euphoria of yesteryear, but with ripples of polite applause. And the reaction shots suggested an audience comprised of a high proportion of suits. Could it be that the Jobs Keynote has become the tech equivalent of the Annual General Meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett’s holding company — where people pay over $100k for a single share in the company (currently trading at $129,720 a share) just to buy the right to attend the meeting and sit at the Sage of Omaha’s feet?

There were the usual nauseating interludes when the Chief Execs of Apple’s commercial ‘partners’ are invited on stage for a brief share of the limelight. This year’s scene with Paul Otellini, the Intel CEO, rated three on the Sickbag Scale.

Still, Jobs remains the best embodiment of CEO-as-evangelist there is. And what other company would be able to round off a technical presentation with a live performance by Randy Newman?

Rory Cellan-Jones has taken a sceptical look at the ‘newsworthiness’ of the Apple announcements. He rates the iTunes movie-rental deal at 7/10 and the new ultra-thin laptop at 6/10. His colleagues think Apple gets too much media attention. In terms of its impact on people’s lives, the Ford Focus is more important than anything announced by Steve Jobs.

Which is true. The laptop is called the MacBook Air, btw. Why ‘Air’? Because, says TechCrunch, that’s the only thing left in your wallet after you’ve bought one. It’s £1,199 in the UK, apparently. Shipping in two weeks.

And, for busy folks, here’s the gist of the 90-minute keynote in 60 seconds.

Google Sees Surge in iPhone Traffic

I don’t have an iPhone but I do have an iPod Touch which runs most of the iPhone software and I’ve been blown away by the version of the Safari browser that runs on the iPhone/Touch. It’s the first time I’ve ever found it acceptable to browse the Web on a handheld device. Accessing the Web on my BlackBerry is like having one’s teeth pulled without anaesthetic. It’s simply dire.

Looks like I’m not alone in this:

On Christmas, traffic to Google from iPhones surged, surpassing incoming traffic from any other type of mobile device, according to internal Google data made available to The New York Times. A few days later, iPhone traffic to Google fell below that of devices powered by the Nokia-backed Symbian operating system but remained higher than traffic from any other type of cellphone.

The data is striking because the iPhone, an Apple product, accounts for just 2 percent of smartphones worldwide, according to IDC, a market research firm. Phones powered by Symbian make up 63 percent of the worldwide smartphone market, while those powered by Microsoft’s Windows Mobile have 11 percent and those running the BlackBerry system have 10 percent.

The iPhone has taken the frustration out of browsing on a mobile phone, said Charles Wolf, an analyst with Needham & Company.

Other companies confirmed the trends, if not the specific data, observed by Google. Yahoo, for instance, said iPhones accounted for a disproportionate amount of its mobile traffic. And AdMob, a firm that shows billions of ads on mobile Web sites every month, said it saw traffic from iPhones surge drastically around Christmas.

“Consumers are going to demand Internet browsers” as good as Apple’s, said Vic Gundotra, a Google vice president who oversees mobile products…

The stats are significant: Google is seeing almost as much traffic from a device that has 2 per cent of the phone market as from Symbian phones which have 63 per cent of the market. There’s a lesson there, Nokia.

Bricks ‘n Mortar 2.0

Katie Hafner has some interesting stats on Apple’s retail venture. She visited the Apple Store in Midtown Manhattan at 2am and found it humming.

The party inside that store and in 203 other Apple stores around the world is one reason the company’s stock is up nearly 135 percent for the year. By contrast, high-flying Google is up about 52 percent, while the tech-dominated Nasdaq index is up 12 percent.

The popularity of the iPhone and iPod and the intended halo effect those products have had on sales of Apple computers are behind Apple’s vigor. But the company’s success in retailing, as other competitors struggle to eke out sales growth, has been the bonus.

Apple now derives 20 percent of its revenue from its physical stores. And the number is growing. In the fourth quarter in 2007, which ended Sept. 30, Apple reported that the retail stores accounted for $1.25 billion of Apple’s $6.2 billion in revenues, a 42 percent increase over the fourth quarter in 2006.

Psst…

This morning’s Observer column

Visitors to ThinkSecret.com, a well-known site which publishes rumours and gossip about forthcoming Apple products, found an intriguing notice on the front page last Thursday.

‘Apple and ThinkSecret have settled their lawsuit, reaching an agreement that results in a positive solution for both sides,’ it announced. ‘As part of the confidential settlement, no sources were revealed and ThinkSecret will no longer be published. Nick Ciarelli, ThinkSecret’s publisher, said: “I’m pleased to have reached this amicable settlement, and will now be able to move forward with my college studies and broader journalistic pursuits.”‘

Let’s unpack that…

The $64 billion question

This morning’s Observer column

So the 64-billion-dollar question is: how did it happen? The obvious hypothesis – that the senior executives of all the record companies were idiots – has always seemed implausible to me. Or it did until I read the recent interview in Wired magazine with Doug Morris, chairman and CEO of Universal Music Group. Morris’s ascent to the top of Universal in the 1990s coincided with the rise of CDs – the biggest boom the music business has ever known. The colossal profits blinded Morris & Co to the threat/potential of the net.

Pressed by the interviewer, Morris went into rant mode, insisting that there wasn’t a thing he or anyone else could have done differently. ‘There’s no one in the record company that’s a technologist,’ he said. ‘That’s a misconception writers make all the time, that the record industry missed this. They didn’t. They just didn’t know what to do. It’s like if you were suddenly asked to operate on your dog to remove his kidney. What would you do?’