The future according to Deloitte

The Technology, Media and Telecommunications practice at Deloitte has announced its predictions for the media sector in 2010. Main headings are:

Video-on-demand takes off – but not how you expect
In 2010, the greatest revenue growth in this space will come from a surprising source: the vending machine. Although the web has already become the most efficient means of distributing short-form content, the volume of DVDs distributed via vending machine is expected to double in 2010.

Linear TV survives a bit longer
Though 2010 has been viewed as the beginning of the end for the linear schedule, the gap between linear and non-linear usage will remain substantial. Despite the growing range of non-linear options, most content will continue to be consumed according to broadcasters’ programming schedules, with over 90 per cent of television and 80 per cent of audio, respectively, being consumed in this manner.

TV and the web belong together, but not necessarily on the same screen
Melding web content with television programmes should intensify as concurrent use of the web and TV takes off in 2010. But don’t expect a surge in internet-enabled television sales or an explosion in the use of television widgets; converged web and television consumption is likely to be more pragmatic.

Publishing fights back: pay walls and micropayments
In 2010, the newspaper and magazine industry will continue to threaten to charge readers for online content, however that talk is unlikely to be matched by action. Publishers rumoured to be thinking about pay walls may ultimately decide against it, or are choosing hybrid models where most content is free, while charging only for a limited quantity of premium content. Publishers who use pay walls need to maintain and publicise the premium nature of their content. Excessive cost-cutting could devalue the brand. Online readers might be willing to become micropayment customers, but only if the content is good enough and worth the effort. For some, acquiring an article for 30 cents online may not justify the time taken to enter credit card details. Also, the value of the micropayment strategy to the content provider requires volume: one micropayment per customer every two weeks might result in transaction costs exceeding gross margins