Be careful what you wish for

That adage has been much in my mind in the last 24 hours. For decades the LibDems (and the Liberals and SDP before them) have dreamed about being the king-makers who could force the two big parties to accept proportional representation.

Now Nick Clegg is a king-maker; well, sort of. I’ve been reading today’s newspapers, and they’re stuffed with contradictory advice and analysis. The Beast (i.e. the British electorate) has inadvertently given itself a taste of what Cabinetformatie (as the Dutch call it) would be like in a fairer voting system.

It looks as though all of Clegg’s options are unpalatable. So the only thing to do is to try and work out some general principles. If I were advising the LibDems, this is what I would say:

  • What matters is the long-term renewal of our political system. PR is only a part of that. A more important part is the renewal of the political parties.
  • A formal alliance, coalition or power-sharing with either Cameron or Brown is a non-starter. Either would destroy the LibDems.
  • There will be another election soon. The party that forms the government will be savagely punished by the electorate for the cuts it will have imposed to placate the markets. So a priority for Clegg should be to distance his party as much as possible from active responsibility for the cuts.
  • The temptation to support Labour under Brown should be resisted, despite the argument that the Labour+LibDem combination got more than 50% of the national vote and the deathbed conversion of Labour to PR. Apart from anything else, the Parliamentary arithmetic would leave a Labour-LibDem pact short of an overall majority. It would be a one-way ticket to oblivion for the LibDems. And probably couldn’t even be sure of delivering a referendum on PR
  • So…

  • Cameron should be told that a minority government led by him will get LibDem support on an issue-by-issue basis. In other words, he should be given enough rope to hang himself. And while he is doing so the Tories will tear themselves apart as the pressures of governing bring their visceral ideological fissures to the surface.
  • In the end, two Tory mini-parties will emerge from the fracas: a deeply reactionary, xenophobic faction, akin to the current US Republican party, supported by an hysterical (but declining) cohort of print newspapers; and a relatively liberal, progressive party of the kind Cameron fantasises about. The former will decline into noisy marginality; hopefully, the latter will mature into a sensible and formidable centre-right party.
  • Meanwhile, the shock of defeat will eventually lead to the removal of Gordon Brown and may trigger a renewal of the Labour party into a more liberal, less-authoritarian, reform-minded, progressive political force. (Note, I say “may”.)
  • Er, that’s it. My consulting rates for political advice are quite reasonable, btw.

    Library of Congress drinks from Twitter firehose

    When he was in Cambridge to give the second Arcadia Lecture recently, Dan Cohen mentioned that Twitter had agreed to give the Library of Congress its archive of tweets. Here’s the NYT report of that decision.

    “Twitter is tens of millions of active users. There is no archive with tens of millions of diaries,” said Daniel J. Cohen, an associate professor of history at George Mason University and co-author of a 2006 book, “Digital History.” What’s more, he said, “Twitter is of the moment; it’s where people are the most honest.”

    Last month, Twitter announced that it would donate its archive of public messages to the Library of Congress, and supply it with continuous updates.

    Several historians said the bequest had tremendous potential. “My initial reaction was, ‘When you look at it Tweet by Tweet, it looks like junk,’ said Amy Murrell Taylor, an associate professor of history at the State University of New York, Albany. “But it could be really valuable if looked through collectively.”

    Ms. Taylor is working on a book about slave runaways during the Civil War; the project involves mountains of paper documents. “I don’t have a search engine to sift through it,” she said.

    The Twitter archive, which was “born digital,” as archivists say, will be easily searchable by machine — unlike family letters and diaries gathering dust in attics.

    As a written record, Tweets are very close to the originating thoughts. “Most of our sources are written after the fact, mediated by memory — sometimes false memory,” Ms. Taylor said. “And newspapers are mediated by editors. Tweets take you right into the moment in a way that no other sources do. That’s what is so exciting.”

    Twitter messages preserve witness accounts of an extraordinary variety of events all over the planet. “In the past, some people were able on site to write about, or sketch, as a witness to an event like the hanging of John Brown,” said William G. Thomas III, a professor of history at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “But that’s a very rare, exceptional historical record.”

    Ten billion Twitter messages take up little storage space: about five terabytes of data. (A two-terabyte hard drive can be found for less than $150.)

    Newsweek RIP?

    The Washington Post has put Newsweek for sale. End of an era and all that. Marion Maneker of Slate has a sardonic take on it. Excerpt:

    When Newsweek repositioned itself last year as an American version of the Economist, the strategy was built upon a fatal misreading of the British magazine’s success. Over the last decade, as the weekly went from outdated vehicle to dead man walking, all eyes turned to the Economist. The magazine was the world’s unicorn: It had growing circulation in the United States, and it did not depend upon middlebrow trend-mongering or expensive writers with big egos who sucked the air out the room. Plus, this mythical beast appeared every week in the mail.

    Much was made of the Economist’s intellectual appeal and its point of view. But the magazine offers the perspective of a member of the global financial class. The growth of that group—especially in the United States—has fueled the growth of the magazine. It gives the banker, lawyer, and businessman easy access to the world’s business and political news. It’s the first global magazine. And it has taken advantage of its long history, unique voice, and international position at the heart of London’s banking community to tap into the U.S. audience. With its anonymous, opinionated tone, it plays well to sheepishly provincial Americans. People subscribe to the Economist the way parents once bought expensive sets of the Encyclopedia Britannica. It’s an investment in the hope for future success.

    You can’t emulate that.

    LATER: Desmond Hanlon pointed me to James Fallows’s piece in The Atlantic in which he argues that

    At least for print subscriptions, there appears to be a natural limit to the audience for different kinds of magazines. Let’s think of these in big, order-of-magnitude blocks. All figures here are approximate but true to the general pattern.

    In their heyday, the likes of TV Guide and Reader’s Digest had circulations in the tens of millions. National Geographic has been over ten million.

    The fallen giants — Look, Life, Saturday Evening Post — reached at their respective peaks somewhere between five and ten million.

    At the other end of the scale, “opinion” magazines — The Nation, National Review, New Republic, Weekly Standard — seem to have a natural upper bound of around 100,000. For smaller political magazines, like my original employer The Washington Monthly, the upper-bound figure is more like 50,000.

    The New Yorker‘s natural limit has appeared to be around one million; the Atlantic‘s, about half a million. Of course we all want to have ten times as many subscribers and readers as we do; and who knows, The Age of the Internets may make it all possible. The point for now is, there is a kind of natural matchup of magazine sensibility with audience size. (Eg, as shown by the categories for the National Magazine Awards.) And magazines that ignore this limit soon suffer; it’s like opening a 500-seat restaurant for a kind of cuisine that only 100 people are going to want to eat on any given night, or flying a 747 between Fresno and Bakersfield.

    This brings us back to Newsweek. For the past generation or so, weekly news magazines have been set up for circulations of between about two and five million. US News on the low end, Time on the high end — but in all cases, the business logic of the magazines was based on this kind of scale. Rates for advertising; the kinds of advertisers they could attract; the staff they could employ; the kind of coverage and photography and design they would use. The Economist can do a very good business with a circulation of roughly half a million. Time and Newsweek and US News cannot. They’re built on a different scale. All the tech/death-of-media forces mentioned above have pushed the weeklies below their comfortable scale. Newsweek‘s redesign last year weirdly illustrated the predicament, by creating a more “interesting” magazine with a smaller natural readership.

    I bet that most people who read the Atlantic, in print or online, thought that the new approach made Newsweek edgier, more provocative, more thoughtful, more original, and so on. More essay-type articles and cover stories; much less summing-up of the news. The Atlantic‘s audience would like this version of Newsweek better, because it has been more like the Atlantic — or the Economist, or the New Yorker, or the NYT Week in Review, or the New York Review of Books. These are all great publications. But none of them is going to have three million or more subscribers, which Newsweek‘s business model has historically been based upon. Newsweek became a “better” magazine – but a kind of magazine whose natural audience is smaller by definition. It would be as if McDonald’s or Applebee’s became a tapas bar — yet still needed to fill the same number of seats.

    Inside the mind of the Beast

    I found it hard to sleep last night, partly because I was brooding on today’s election. Lying awake, I was reminded of a metaphor which has struck me often in the years since Tony Blair ousted the Tories in 1997. In this the British electorate appears as a vast, lumbering beast — a kind of sleepy Leviathan. The Beast is not very interested in politics; in fact, most of the time it would prefer not to have to think about it at all. But every so often the buzzing of hornets (all of whom, in my dreams, look like Nick Robinson, the BBC’s Political Editor) annoys it into briefly paying attention to the fact that it has to make a decision. The Beast doesn’t like making decisions, so it tends to put off thinking about them until the last possible moment. And when it does decide, its choice is largely determined by two elementary factors. The first is boredom. The second is a vague — and not terribly enthusiastic — feeling that it’s time to let the other lot have a go.

    This is the way all British elections are decided. Occasionally, the Beast makes its choice with a show of enthusiasm. This happened in 1997, for the obvious reason that the Tories had become so unutterably boring, incompetent and corrupt that even the apolitical Beast had noticed. In the 2002 and 2005 elections it opted to extend the New Labour hegemony with declining enthusiasm. But it was clear to some (most?) of us, that next time round it would be inclined to give the other lot a go. The succession of Gordon Brown clinched it — as Tony Blair had feared, and as I wrote about at the time.

    As this interminable election campaign unfolded, the Beast was initially startled by a new kind of hornet — in this case the televised leaders’ debates. There was a lot of irritating buzzing about a ‘third way’ involving the Lib Dems and political realignment and constitutional reform. This initially sparked some interest in the Beast, but on inspection seemed to offer nothing but impenetrable complexity: it was a signpost to what looked like a thicket rather than a beaten path. So in the end the Beast decided that it was all too complicated and reverted to its time-honoured decision-rule.

    The interesting thing, though, is that it does so with a distinct lack of enthusiasm. As I write, the BBC election seat calculator is predicting Con 284, Lab 257 LibDem 80 Others 29.

    But FiveThirtyEight, the US analytical site which did such insightful work on the polls in the Obama election is predicting an interestingly different result: Cons 312, Lab 204 LibDem 103. I’m inclined to believe that this is what the Beast intends: a minority Tory government. But that probably means another election in October. Which only goes to show that the Beast isn’t much good at joined-up thinking. It can go back to sleep tomorrow — but not for long.

    Facebook’s privacy policy: steady, gradual erosion

    Revealing Timeline by the Electronic Frontier Foundation.

    Viewed together, the successive policies tell a clear story. Facebook originally earned its core base of users by offering them simple and powerful controls over their personal information. As Facebook grew larger and became more important, it could have chosen to maintain or improve those controls. Instead, it’s slowly but surely helped itself — and its advertising and business partners — to more and more of its users’ information, while limiting the users’ options to control their own information.

    Greek wealth: everywhere but in tax returns

    A clip of the affluent Athens suburb of Psihiko from Google Earth.

    Interesting NYTimes story.

    ATHENS — In the wealthy, northern suburbs of this city, where summer temperatures often hit the high 90s, just 324 residents checked the box on their tax returns admitting that they owned pools.

    So tax investigators studied satellite photos of the area — a sprawling collection of expensive villas tucked behind tall gates — and came back with a decidedly different number: 16,974 pools.

    That kind of wholesale lying about assets, and other eye-popping cases that are surfacing in the news media here, points to the staggering breadth of tax dodging that has long been a way of life here.

    A bit like Ireland then, but without the pools.

    Vote for Toxoplasma gondii

    Terrific rant by George Monbiot. Sample:

    While Labour has liberated billionaires, it has trussed up the rest of us with 3,500 new criminal offences, including provisions that allow the police to declare any demonstration illegal. It has introduced control orders that place people under permanent house arrest without charge or trial. It has allowed the US to extradite our citizens without producing evidence of an offence. It has colluded in kidnapping and torture. Britain now has more CCTV cameras than any other nation, and a DNA database that is five times the size of its nearest competitor. The number of prisoners in the UK has risen by 41% since Labour took office.

    This government blocked a ceasefire in the Lebanon; sacked Britain’s ambassador to Uzbekistan after he complained that the regime was boiling its prisoners to death; gave aid to a Colombian military that collaborates with fascist death squads; announced a policy of pre-emptive nuclear war; and decided to waste our money on replacing Trident. But worse, far worse than any of this, it launched an illegal war in which hundreds of thousands have died. This is the government that colleagues of mine on the Guardian want to save.

    There’s a parasite called Toxoplasma gondii that colonises the brains of rats, altering their behaviour to attract them to the scent of their predators. The rats seek out cats and get eaten, allowing the parasite to keep circulating. This is New Labour. It has colonised a movement that fought for social justice, distribution and decency, rewired its brain and delivered it to the fat cats who were once its enemies.

    Yep. But it still leaves me with the problem of who whom to vote for.

    Footnote: Toxoplasma gondii

    Inexorable decline…

    … in the percentage of the vote going to the two big parties.

    The TV debates aren’t responsible for the Hung Parliament that will follow Thursday’s election as surely as night follows day. A quarter of a century of decline in the combined Labour and Conservative share of the vote means that the two party stranglehold over UK politics is on its way out and Clegg’s TV performance was just a tipping point.

    One of the wonderful things about the web is the accessibility of data. The Guardian has published all of the Guardian/ICM polling data since 1984. At Election 10 we took the combined Labour and Conservative share for every poll and created the graph above. In 1990 the two parties were claiming almost 90% of the vote between them this has shrunk to a little over 60% and it has been a steady consistent decline. A continuation of this would mean a government taking power that was opposed by around 65% of the population. Even our bizarre electoral system can’t sustain this.

    Hmmm… I’m not sure about that optimistic conclusion. The British system can support a good many constitutional absurdities. But isn’t it interesting what a good long run of data can show, eh?

    [Source.]

    Danah Boyd on how privacy on Facebook is eroding

    danah boyd is one of the sanest and best-informed observers of social networking. This is a good (but too brief) Technology Review interview with her on the subject. Sample:

    Danah Boyd: People started out with a sense that this is just for you and people in your college. Since then, it’s become just for you and all your friends. It slowly opened up and in the process people lost a lot of awareness of what was happening with their data. This is one of the things that frightens me. I started asking all of these nontechnological people about their Facebook privacy settings, and consistently found that their mental model of their privacy settings and what they saw in their data did not match.

    TR: What’s been driving these changes for Facebook?

    DB: When you think about Facebook, the market has very specific incentives: Encourage people to be public, increase ad revenue. All sorts of other things will happen from there. The technology makes it very easy to make people be as visible and searchable as possible. Technology is very, very aligned with the market.

    TR: Some people dismiss concerns about this sort of situation by saying that privacy is dead.

    DB: Facebook is saying, “Ah, the social norms have changed. We don’t have to pay attention to people’s privacy concerns, that’s just old fuddy-duddies.” Part of that is strategic. Law follows social norms.

    TR: What do you think is actually happening to the social norms?

    DB: I think the social norms have not changed. I think they’re being battered by the way the market forces are operating at this point. I think the market is pushing people in a direction that has huge consequences, especially for those who are marginalized.