“If the Queen asks you to a party, you say yes. If the Italian prime minister asks you to a party, it’s probably safe to say no.”
David Cameron.
Political calculations
Pringle is an Independent candidate in Donegal.
UPDATE: Thomas Pringle was elected after the fifth and final count on February 26.
Scarecrows out!
I’m in Ireland and it’s Election week. There’s a palpable sense of anger with politicians of all stripes, neatly expressed in this farmer’s field. He’s a supporter of one of the many ‘Independent’ (i.e. non-party) candidates running in this campaign.
The Middle East and our addiction to oil
Terrific OpEd column by Tom Friedman in the NYT.
For the last 50 years, America (and Europe and Asia) have treated the Middle East as if it were just a collection of big gas stations: Saudi station, Iran station, Kuwait station, Bahrain station, Egypt station, Libya station, Iraq station, United Arab Emirates station, etc. Our message to the region has been very consistent: “Guys (it was only guys we spoke with), here’s the deal. Keep your pumps open, your oil prices low, don’t bother the Israelis too much and, as far as we’re concerned, you can do whatever you want out back. You can deprive your people of whatever civil rights you like. You can engage in however much corruption you like. You can preach whatever intolerance from your mosques that you like. You can print whatever conspiracy theories about us in your newspapers that you like. You can keep your women as illiterate as you like. You can create whatever vast welfare-state economies, without any innovative capacity, that you like. You can undereducate your youth as much as you like. Just keep your pumps open, your oil prices low, don’t hassle the Jews too much — and you can do whatever you want out back.”
It was that attitude that enabled the Arab world to be insulated from history for the last 50 years — to be ruled for decades by the same kings and dictators. Well, history is back. The combination of rising food prices, huge bulges of unemployed youth and social networks that are enabling those youths to organize against their leaders is breaking down all the barriers of fear that kept these kleptocracies in power….
Friedman thinks that the first thing the Obama administration should do is
to impose a $1-a-gallon gasoline tax, to be phased in at 5 cents a month beginning in 2012, with all the money going to pay down the deficit. Legislating a higher energy price today that takes effect in the future, notes the Princeton economist Alan Blinder, would trigger a shift in buying and investment well before the tax kicks in. With one little gasoline tax, we can make ourselves more economically and strategically secure, help sell more Chevy Volts and free ourselves to openly push for democratic values in the Middle East without worrying anymore that it will harm our oil interests. Yes, it will mean higher gas prices, but prices are going up anyway, folks. Let’s capture some it for ourselves.
It’s a good idea, but can you imagine the current US Congress passing that?
Confessions of a (reformed) petrolhead
Here’s a terrible confession from a Prius owner: I was once a petrolhead. Worse: towards the end of my student days I had a 3.8-litre Mk II Jaguar (like the one in the photograph and the one owned by Inspector Morse in the TV series, but not in as nice condition as either of those). It was wonderful for a while. But then came the Yom Kippur war, and the OPEC oil-price hike and suddenly it cost £20 to drive to the end of the street and so, sadder but wiser, I sold it and bought a VW Beetle.
But back then I used to think that maybe it’d be fun to be a motoring journalist.
Reading Sam Wollaston in the Guardian has cured me retrospectively of that illusion: I just wasn’t a witty enough writer. Witness his latest piece — about the Volvo V60 D3 SE Lux Premium:
Do I know how to start it, asks the man from Volvo. Hey, come on, I’m an experienced motoring journalist – of course I know how to bloody start it. Leave me alone. So he does. And within half an hour or so, I’m on the move. You have to insert the key fob thing into the key fob dock thing, put your foot on the brake, then hit the start button. Remember when cars had ignition keys? Wasn’t that so boring? And straightforward. Anyway, thank God I’m not a getaway driver. I wouldn’t have got away.
Some of this car’s toys are more useful, such as the safety ones. So you’re driving up the M1, distracted by something (the kids or the dogs fighting in the back, say), you start to drift into the neighbouring lane… beep beep, beep beep, says the car. That’ll be the Lane Departure Warning kicking in. Or you actually want to change lanes, but you’re too old and stiff to look over your shoulder. You can’t see anything in the wing mirror, it’s probably clear… except suddenly there is a yellow light in the mirror, the Blind Spot Information System telling you another car is there. More lights appear on the windscreen if you get too close to the car in front. There’s also a City Safety System, which makes the car automatically brake if the vehicle in front slows down or stops: this car is constantly sending out radar and sonar and what have you to keep me out of trouble – it’s like driving a bat.
He’s intrigued by the “Pedestrian Detection” system that looks out for person-shaped things on the road in front, warns you, then brakes if you decide not to do anything.
I want to test it out, with my girlfriend as the person-shaped thing, but she won’t, unsportingly – says she’s worried that after all the Christmas bingeing, she won’t be recognised as person-shaped. How embarrassing would that be?
Oh — and another thing… The Jag had a ‘Start’ button in its veneered walnut dashboard. Just like Windows 95.
Picture credit: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Arnaud_25
The WikiLeaks phenomenon reviewed
From my review of two of the current wave of books about WikiLeaks.
Experience showed, however, that often mere revelation was not enough: the world yawned and turned away. Often the leaked material was complex and unintelligible to the lay browser. It needed expert interpretation – and corroboration. So gradually it dawned on Assange and his colleagues that the best way of making an impact on the world might be to collaborate with journalistic organisations, which could provide the interpretation and the checking needed to ensure that people believed what was being leaked. This is the value that the Guardian, the New York Times, Der Spiegel and the other media partners added to the vast troves of documents that Assange brought to them.
But if it turned out that WikiLeaks needed conventional journalism, it has also become clear that conventional journalism needs what WikiLeaks created, namely a secure technology for enabling people to upload confidential material that they believe should be in the public domain. So it's important that serious media organisations now build that kind of technology themselves, just in case WikiLeaks is overcome by the fragility of its finances, its managerial problems or the legal vulnerability of its founder. In a world increasingly dominated by secretive, unaccountable corporations and in which authoritarian regimes continue to flourish, we will need robust technologies for ensuring that some secrets cannot be kept…
Confessions of an Apple Store Employee
Now here is something you don’t see every day — an Apple employee spilling the beans. Fascinating insight into how the Apple Store works. Samples:
Evil Customers
Its amazing how badly behaved some customers are. I have seen customers have complete meltdowns and get phones exchanged that were like two years old. They scream, cry, curse. And it works. People can be horrible. Sometimes it’s like working at McDonald’s, with better pay. I’ve never been treated so badly in my life.
Dealing With Drug Dealers
We get a lot of drug dealers who try to buy iPhones with fake IDs. You can tell them instantly just by how shady they act, and they know you know, but you obviously can’t start accusing them of being drug dealers—they are customers, after all. But when they try to check out, they’ll use what are obviously fake IDs or fake credit cards, and it often turns out they’re using a dead person’s Social Security number or something. And when you call them out on that—then, they run.
Pushing MobileMe
We aren’t paid on commission, but you fear for your job if you’re not selling enough. We’re supposed to sell AppleCare product support with just about everything, and honestly, those aren’t that hard to sell, since they aren’t a bad deal. But we’re also supposed to push MobileMe, and that’s really hard to sell. Nobody ever sells it.
WikiLeaks: Big Business has wised up and it ain’t pretty
This morning’s Observer column.
What’s instructive about the Julius Baer case is how clueless the bank and its agents were about the net. They looked like blind men poking a tiger with a stick. It was amusing at the time, but it was too good to last. It was inevitable that the corporate world would wise up and in the past few weeks we’ve begun to see some of the results of that re-education process. And it ain’t pretty.
What’s driving things now is the conjecture that the next big WikiLeaks exposé concerns Bank of America. And deep in the lush undergrowth of corporate America, security, consulting and PR companies have perceived lucrative business opportunities in helping putative WikiLeaks targets get their retaliation in first.
We got a glimpse of this twilight world when the activist group Anonymous hacked into the servers of an internet security firm…
Put not your faith in Cloud services — contd.
Dave Winer again.
Twitter pressed a button tonight, and not just the one marked “Kill.”
They sent two wakeup calls to their users:
1. Hey it would be safer to use our client to access Twitter.
Subtext: We’re not going to kill our own app.
2. We will kill your use of Twitter if it suits us.
Just when people were starting to think that Twitter could be used for serious stuff, you know — like news, and revolutions.
When Amazon kicked WikiLeaks off, without adequate explanation, they did far more damage to their own rep than they did to WikiLeaks. Everyone knew WikiLeaks is a hot potato. What we didn't know is how little heat it would take Amazon to dump one of their customers. It would be one thing to stand up to repeated court orders and finally cave. But in this case, there wasn’t even a judgment against WikiLeaks. They kicked them off because it suited them. And that killed Amazon as an environment for journalism. RIght there. If they ever want to get that back they have a lot of explaining to do.
Now this one tweet from ABC’s Jake Tapper puts it all in perspective. “Twitter killed my ubertwitter.” He got the subject and object of that correct, and the verb.
What if, just saying — one of the revolutionaries in Cairo or Bahrain or Tripoli was using UberTwitter or Twidroid. Not impossible you know. What if they went to send a message, one that might save lives, and found out that Twitter had shut them off.
Yep.
The real price of oil
Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times has been one of the best journalistic witnesses to what’s going on in the Middle East. His latest report from Bahrain includes an astonishing video sequence filmed in a hospital next to the bed of a plastic surgeon who had been beaten unconscious by security forces and then threatened with rape. His dispatch is worth reading in full. It begins:
A column of peaceful, unarmed pro-democracy protesters marched through the streets here in modern, cosmopolitan Bahrain on Friday. They threatened no one, but their 21st-century aspirations collided with a medieval ruler — and the authorities opened fire without warning.
Michael Slackman and Sean Patrick Farrell of The New York Times were recording video, and a helicopter began firing in their direction. It was another example of Bahrain targeting journalists, as King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa attempts to intimidate or keep out witnesses to his repression.
The main hospital here was already in chaos because a police attack nearby was sending protesters rushing inside for refuge, along with tear gas fumes. On top of that, casualties from the shootings suddenly began pouring in. A few patients were screaming or sobbing, but most were unconscious or shocked into silence that their government should shoot them.
Once again, it’s clear that the West, led by the US, has no idea how to react to what’s going on. In the case of Egypt, the problem (for the US) was its entanglement with Israel, and the fear that radical change in Cairo might undermine the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel which is one of the cornerstones of US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
But at least Egypt has no oil. Bahrain does have some, but — according to the CIA Fact Book — is “facing declining oil reserves, … has turned to petroleum processing and refining and has transformed itself into an international banking center.” American pusillanimity this time has two sources: the fact that Bahrain is the base for the US Fifth Fleet; and it has the same governance arrangements as its powerful and oil-rich neighbour, Saudi Arabia, i.e. minority Sunni rule over an oppressed Shia majority. If the Bahraini regime were to fold, then the Shias in Saudi might get ideas, and who knows where that might lead? (Hint: think of a large, rich, Shia-dominated country with aspirations to develop nukes.)
So it’s overwhelmingly in the US’s interest to have the unrest in Bahrain resolved in some non-incendiary way. The affairs of this Mickey Mouse ‘kingdom’ with a population less than that of a London borough are thus giving major headaches to the boys in the Situation Room back at the White House.
In the long run, of course, there’s only one way out of this realpolitik dilemma: we have to wean ourselves off our dependence on Middle Eastern oil. But then, as Keynes wisely observed, in the long run we are all dead.
In the meantime, if this continues, oil will be $200 a barrel before you can say Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa. (Yesterday in London, Brent crude for April delivery reached $102.76 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange; Brent prices are supposedly a good indicator of what Mid-East prices will be.) Just as well that I’ve had my bike serviced.
And then there’s Libya…
UPDATE: Fascinating online petition entitled “The Bahrain Twitter Community Against Nick Kristof”, uploaded by hassan.albashhotmail.com on February 18, 2011, 4:11:11 pm. It reads:
Dear New York Times Editor:
The events that have fallen on Bahrain the past few days have been nothing short of tragic. So when the violence escalated, the world tuned in, through you, the media. This brings us to the point of this petition: we write to you today, complaining about the shoddy journalism of one of your own reporters, Nicholas D. Kristof. Through his twitter feed, he has accomplished nothing short of spreading the wrong message of the Bahraini situation, giving one-sided report, and spreading unchecked lies.
This issue was not about sectarian hate, the people did not want to overthrow the government. What the people were peacefully protesting for was reform, but Nick Kristof went on to compare the situation to Tunisia’s and Egypt’s. Not once did he mention the opposing point of view, not once did he see look at the situation objectively, and see that both sides were wrong.
Many of us during the past days have relied heavily on twitter to keep up with the latest updates on this grief that has struck our nation. I myself am studying in the United Kingdom, and it has been my main source of information. Which is why it was so disappointing to find Nick Kristof post unconfirmed information, such as the presence of Saudi military in Bahrain. For him to make this a Sunni and Shiite matter only fuels the hate.
We understand that the criterion for newsworthiness sometimes necessitates focusing on human interest, conflict, and shock value from an emotional angle. However, to continuously aim for such spin by intentionally ignoring other truths and exaggerating inaccuracies was extremely hurtful to our small national and its people, fueling a horrible fire and destroying alread strained relations.
We kindly ask that you review and independently investigate all that has been said when this situation is over, and take any appropriate actions you see fit in line with the journalistic standards befitting your esteemed organization.
MORE: The WikiLeaks trove of US Diplomatic cables contains some fascinating stuff about Bahrain as seen through American eyes. Particularly interesting is this report of the US Embassy’s attempts to assess the situation and views of young Bahrainis. It’s an good case study in competent, conscientious reporting. Sample:
2.(C) Over the course of two months, Embassy public affairs officers pulsed [sic] young Bahrainis about attitudes toward work, politics and their future. Conversations with more than fifty men and women between the ages of 17 and 30 offer useful insights into Bahrain’s next generation of young professionals.
——————————– UNEMPLOYMENT A WORRY FOR MANY… ——————————–3.(C) Employment is a top concern for both Sunni and Shia youth, and especially men. A large majority tell us they worry about their job prospects and are not as confident in their future as they were five or ten years ago. Several contacts related stories of new graduates who are struggling to find jobs. Rashid Riaz, a liberal Sunni and Events Officer for a GOB-funded youth program, told us that over half of his close friends have been unemployed for a year or more.
4.(C) Others — particularly Shia — believe there are job opportunities in the country but that they are not equally available to all. According to Adnan Alawi, a young teacher and member of the (Shia) Wifaq party, “The good jobs go to certain people – Sunnis — and especially in the public sector.” Many Shia youth believe that employment discrimination is institutionalized in the public sector, but that in the private sector, skills and professional qualifications trump sectarian identity. Alawi claims that Shia youth are therefore more focused than Sunni on their own professional development in order to secure jobs in the “more competitive and fair” private sector.
5.(C) Although Sunni contacts acknowledged the widespread perception that not all Bahrainis are treated equally, they accused the Shia of exaggerating alleged discrimination in order to pressure the GOB into providing them more jobs and benefits. Ahmed Al Harban, a conservative Sunni, asserted that poor Sunnis are not as politically well organized as Shia and therefore generally receive less public assistance.
And:
————- …BUT SECTARIAN DISCRIMINATION MAY NOT BE THE ONLY CAUSE ———————
6.(C) Several Sunni and Shia contacts cited the poor work ethic of Bahraini youth, rather than sectarian discrimination, as a factor in unemployment. They asserted that many are “unemployed by choice.” There are numerous jobs available, they explained, but young Bahrainis are unwilling to take positions that are lower-paying, require long working hours or are seen as low status. Noor Nass, an undergraduate student at the Royal University for Women and from a prominent Shia family, said that she has declined two job offers because of low wages. Other contacts tell us that most young people prefer government employment or positions with established companies and refuse jobs with salaries lower than BD 500/month (USD 1400/mo.) In another example, post worked with a local contractor to provide paid summer internship opportunities with the French multinational supermarket “Geant” for several poor Shia high school students who had graduated from the USG-sponsored ACCESS English program. According to the contractor, the students didn’t even show up for the initial interview because they deemed the wages to be too low and the jobs were not “in management.”
7.(C) Mansoora Al-Jamri, a journalist from a prominent Shia family, said that young Bahrainis underestimate their potential and can only envision themselves in a government clerical job. Many “are afraid to think big.” Some of her contemporaries have ambitious professional goals, she said, but they are a minority.