From Dave Winer:

This is the graph we were looking at on this day in 2016. It says that HRC had a 75% chance of winning. The black line at the right is Election Day. Most people didn’t understand enough about probability to understand what that meant, so presumably weren’t motivated to vote. This is a lesson you don’t hear reported on much in the press. The election wasn’t decided by anti-abortion gun-rights advocates. It was decided by the people who didn’t vote. # 1