Is the pace of change really such a shock?

Lovely rant by Tom Coates. Sample:

My sense of these media organisations that use this argument of incredibly rapid technology change is that they’re screaming that they’re being pursued by a snail and yet they cannot get away! ‘The snail! The snail!’, they cry. ‘How can we possibly escape!?

The problem being that the snail’s been moving closer for the last twenty years one way or another and they just weren’t paying attention. Because if we’re honest, if you don’t want or need to be first and you don’t need to own the platform, it can’t be hard to see roughly where this environment is going. Media will be, must be, transportable in bits and delivered to TV screens and various other players. And there will be enormous archives available that need to be explorable and searchable. And people will create content online and distribute it between themselves and find new ways to express themselves. Changes in the mechanics of those distributions and explorations will happen all the time, but really the major swift is not such a surprise, surely? I mean, how can it be!? Most of it has been happening in an unevenly distributed way for years anyway. And it’s not like it’s enormously hard to see what you’ve got to do to prepare for this – find a way to digitise the content, get as much information as possible about the content, work out how to throw it around the world, look for business models and watch the bubble-up communities for ideas. That’s it. Come on, guys! There’s hard work to be done, but it’s not in observing the trends or trying to work out what to do, it’s in just getting on with the work of sorting out rights and data and digitisation and keeping in touch with ideas from the ground. This should be the minimum a media organisation should do, not some terrifying new world of fear!

I think this is the most important thing that these organisations need to recognise now – not that change is dramatic and scary and that they have to suddenly pull themselves together to confront a new threat, but that they’ve been simply ignoring the world around them for decades. We don’t need people standing up and panicking and shouting the bloody obvious. We need people to watch the industries that could have an impact upon them, take them seriously, don’t freak out and observe what’s moving in their direction and then just do the basic work to be ready for it. The only way that snails catch you up is if you’re too self-absorbed to see them coming.

Quote of the day

You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something — your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever.

This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.

Steve Jobs, giving the Commencement Address at Stanford last June. It’s a wonderful speech, which shows Jobs at his entrancing best.

Thanks to Ian Yorston for the link.

Jane Jacobs on urban planners

“They are all in the same stage of elaborately learned superstition as medical science was early in the last century… As in the pseudoscience of bloodletting, just so in the pseudoscience of city rebuilding and planning, years of learning and a plethora of subtle dogma have arisen on a foundation of nonsense.”

Exactly the same could be said of much of today’s contemporary ‘management science’.

The last hurrah?

Wall Street wiped $32 billion off the value of Microsoft yesterday as its share price dropped 11 per cent. This was because the company revealed a dramatic shift in its strategy to spend bucketloads of money trying to compete in emerging online markets. Here’s what the Financial Times‘s Lex column had to say:

While Microsoft’s shares dropped like a stone after it revealed plans to pour cash into online and other new markets, Google’s stock barely budged. A warning, perhaps, of the ineffectiveness of Microsoft’s billions in the battle ahead?

The investment binge that will hammer Microsoft’s profits next year echoes other past spending sprees, such as the initial Xbox foray. The company spent years trying to convince Wall Street that it was swearing off such extravagances, so it is hardly surprising that the news was poorly received. In fact Microsoft has little choice. The coming Windows Vista product cycle could well mark the last hurrah of a truly wondrous business model. As more software moves to the web and mobile phones, Microsoft’s foothold on the PC will become progressively weaker as a place from which to shape the future of its industry. Putting Windows on servers was a nice stopgap, but further gains will become harder as Linux spreads…

I love that phrase — “the last hurrah of a truly wondrous business model”. Must remember it for future use.

Oh — and while we’re on the subject, Netcraft has revealed that Apache has overtaken Microsoft as the leading developer of secure web servers. Apache now runs on 44.0% of secure web sites, compared to 43.8% for Microsoft.

Limbaugh Arrested on Prescription Drug Charges

From an AP report carried on Truthdig…

The Palm Beach County, Florida, sheriff’s Office says Rush Limbaugh has been arrested on prescription fraud charges.

Limbaugh turned himself into authorities on a warrant issued by the state attorney’s office, said agency spokesperson Teri Barbera.

The conservative radio commentator came into the jail about 4 p.m with his attorney, Roy Black, and was released an hour later on $3,000 bail.

The warrant was for fraud to conceal information to obtain prescription. Barbera said.

Leopards don’t change their spots. Limbaugh was investigated in 2003 for a similar offence.

That managerial job

You’d have to be crazy to want to manage the England football team. Luiz Felipe Scolari clearly isn’t.

It took Sven Goran Eriksson five years to tire of the English media’s obsession with the incumbent of the impossible job. Luiz Felipe Scolari, his nemesis and the FA’s chosen successor, took less than 48 hours to decide that the radioactive tracksuit would not fit.

Scolari, a World Cup winner with Brazil and the man singled out by the FA’s tortuous appointments process as best candidate for England, yesterday announced that he would not be putting his name on the £2.5m-a-year contract offered to him on Wednesday.

After waking on Thursday morning to find 20 reporters on his doorstep in Lisbon and numerous others poring over his background, Big Phil decided to withdraw his name from the process…

Smart lad, that Luiz.

‘Systemic failure’…

… is a phrase much in vogue this week, as the British government struggles to cope with a week of disasters. Systemic means “of, or pertaining to, a system”, and it is quite clear that the failures in the prison/deportation arrangements which allowed over a thousand convicted foreigners to escape deportation were indeed systemic in this sense. As a matter of fact, most large-scale failures are.

This point is intelligently made by Martin Kettle in his Guardian column this morning when he writes:

Leaving John Prescott’s extramarital affair to one side (although, ironically, the deputy prime minister may be the biggest political loser of the week), it is foolish to pretend that the prisons and health crises are not symptomatic of something larger. It was not mere coincidence that two big departments found themselves under fire this week. Away from the front pages and the TV news bulletins, plenty of other departments are also undergoing similar heavy pounding: the Treasury for the lost billions of the tax credit system; the Ministry of Defence for persistent cost overruns; Defra for the bungled introduction of the new system of farm subsidies; the Department of Constitutional Affairs for an overspend on legal aid that will lead to the loss of hundreds of jobs in the court service.

These are not personal failures on the part of ministers, though not all ministers are as brave as Charles Clarke in fessing up to their failures. The fact that Clarke and Hewitt have both had a horrid week is down to something more than the former’s combative brusqueness or the latter’s unfortunate schoolmarmish manner. Both, by any reasonable account, are talented and competent. What is wrong is clearly “systemic”, as Clarke put it about the prisoner releases, or even institutional. This week’s events have exposed some of the wider limitations of Labour’s way of managing public-service reform, as well as Labour’s way of governing more generally – and perhaps even some of the limitations of the modern state itself.

The problem is that the logic of the “systemic failure” analysis is never followed up. What’s needed is systemic management of these very large and complex programmes, that is to say, an approach to design and management that is informed by systems thinking. Until we get that kind of approach, we are always going to have systemic failures, because we are blind to the interactions (or lack thereof) which cause them.

When one of my former OU colleagues, Professor Jake Chapman, went to work part-time for the Cabinet Office, he spotted immediately that the absence of systemic thinking was a crippling defect in the governmental apparatus, and he co-operated with us to produce an Open University course, Making Policies Work: systems thinking in government and management, as a way of helping people understand what is needed. Maybe we should offer it for free to every civil servant in the country?