From ridiculous to essential: the history of Twitter

My Observer piece about Twitter.

“When a true genius appears in the world”, wrote Jonathan Swift, “you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in a confederacy against him”. Thus it was in July 2006 when Twitter appeared. It was a “microblogging” service that allowed one to broadcast one’s thoughts to the world, on one condition: that they should be expressible in not more than 140 characters.

I thought it was a work of genius the first moment I laid eyes on it.

But most normal people, and not a few of my friends, thought otherwise…

Bad language?

Google has converted its wonderful web-based Google Translate into a native iOS app for iPhone, with voice input for 15 languages and support for speaking results in 23 languages.

So I downloaded and installed it on my phone. It invited me to speak, so I requested a translation of the following sentence: “I am wondering what you think of President Sarkozy”.

The phone thought for a moment, and then replied: Je me demandez ce que vous pensez de sucer president ####”.

Hmmm…

Wanted: more subversive innovation

This morning’s Observer column.

For hardcore geeks, the WikiLeaks saga should serve as a stimulant to a new wave of innovation which will lead to a new generation of distributed, secure technologies (like the TOR networking system used by WikiLeaks) which will enable people to support movements and campaigns that are deemed subversive by authoritarian powers. A really good example of this kind of technological innovation was provided last week by Google engineers, who in a few days built a system that enabled protesters in Egypt to send tweets even though the internet in their country had been shut down. “Like many people”, they blogged, “we’ve been glued to the news unfolding in Egypt and thinking of what we can do to help people on the ground. Over the weekend we came up with the idea of a speak-to-tweet service – the ability for anyone to tweet using just a voice connection.”

They worked with a small team of engineers from Twitter and SayNow (a company Google recently acquired) to build the system. It provides three international phone numbers and anyone can tweet by leaving a voicemail. The tweets appear on twitter.com/speak2tweet.

What’s exciting about this kind of development is that it harnesses the same kind of irrepressible, irreverent, geeky originality that characterised the early years of the internet, before the web arrived and big corporations started to get a grip on it. Events in Egypt make one realise how badly this kind of innovation is needed.

LATER: Useful post about how to ensure that your domain names aren’t snaffled by the Feds.

Mark Anderson’s Predictions for 2011

Mark Anderson is one of the most perceptive observers of the technology business that I know. Every year he issues his predictions for the next 12 months. Here’s the current batch.

# The Smartphone Market Breaks in Two: Secure / enterprise, vs. consumer / entertainment.

* Android dominates – and balkanizes – the consumer Smartphone Market, with Apple close behind offering its Monolithic Operations.

* RIM and XX dominate the Enterprise. XX should be Microsoft, but Apple gets it.

# Carriers Grab Power: Google has interrupted a transition of power from Pipes to Boxes. Android gives carriers power, while the iOS takes it away. Whose walled garden do you prefer? Pray for Apple, if you are a user.

# iTunes Seeds Its Own Competition: More real distribution competitors grow and prosper. Consumers want choice. This is a major business opportunity, on a global scale.

# The Micro-App Ecosphere Hits a Money Wall: Prices quickly escalate, and suddenly there are two types of micro apps companies: big ones that charge and survive, and cute little ones that don’t.

# Google Loses Its Way, failing to answer the critical question: “What Business Am I In?” even as Android, Google Phone, and e-ditions prosper (mostly without revenues). The company will be perceived as confused and unable to develop or support long-term strategy. Is this death by a thousand profitless successes?

# The Year of the Electric Car, Part II: Real Production Numbers, Real Sales Numbers, Real Charging Stations Popping Up Like Weeds. Cars regain technology interest as a technology platform, fueled by burgeoning global sales growth, new nationalist entries, and all-electric models.

# SNS CarryAlongs Remain the Fastest-Growing Segment in Computer Sales: We will see LOTS of new (9” x 7”) pads this year.

# Data Matters: Oracle, the world’s largest database company, Takes Off, and emerges as a global platform. Competitor SAP suffers. The Larry Ellison/Mark Hurd team becomes as legendary as Gates and Shirley once were, and for the same reason: the ideal match of tech visionary with operating maven.

# NetTV Is In, Cable Is Out: Penetration of IPTV use in the U.S. reaches 40%+. This marks a revolution in mass media. Cable and satellite suffer, and are wrong about customers not “cutting the cord.” Netflix benefits, and dominates the IPTV space, creating a breakout play for an already-amazing storybook company. Carriers (and countries) not providing real broadband suffer competitively. Old content players realize it is Dominate or Die in the new IP distribution world. New channels, and definitions of channels, abound.

# E-books Go Mainstream: While paper book sales remain healthy, e-book fractional share of all book sales goes ballistic. E-reading becomes as common as eating with a spoon. U.S. wholesale e-book sales should meet or exceed $160MM per quarter during 2011. Compound Annual Growth Rates will remain over 140%.

Net neutrality and the Schleswig-Holstein question

This morning’s Observer column.

Readers with long memories will recall the celebrated Schleswig-Holstein question. This referred to a bundle of thorny diplomatic and other issues arising from the relations of two duchies, Schleswig and Holstein, to the Danish crown and to the German Confederation. It was the bane of diplomats' lives in the late 19th century, but we remember it nowadays mainly because of Lord Palmerston’s famous wisecrack about it. “The Schleswig-Holstein question is so complicated,” he said, “that only three men in Europe have ever understood it. One was Prince Albert, who is dead. The second was a German professor who became mad. I am the third and I have forgotten all about it.”

The issue of "net neutrality" is the Schleswig-Holstein question de nos jours…

My colleague, Ray Corrigan, has a written a very informative review of what is probably the most scholarly book to have emerged so far on the question of Net Neutrality — Christopher Marsden’s Net Neutrality: Towards a Co-regulatory Solution

The neutering of the Net: what the FCC ruling means

Dan Gillmor’s not impressed by the FCC’s pusillanimity. Neither am I.

The neutering of the Internet is now the unofficial policy of the Federal Communications Commission. Contrary to the happy talk from FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski at a rule-making announcement today in Washington, the move is well underway to turn the Internet into a regulated playground for corporate giants.

Dan writes that:

Tuesday’s FCC vote on rules purportedly designed to ensure open and free networks was a 3-2 partisan charade, with Genachowski and the other two Democratic commissioners in favor and the two Republicans against. It did nothing of the sort. The short-term result will be confusion and jockeying for position. Genachowski’s claim that the rules bring “a level of certainty” to the landscape was laughable unless he was talking about lobbyists and lawyers; their futures are certainly looking prosperous. The longer-range result will be to solidify the power of the incumbent powerhouses — especially telecommunications providers and the entertainment industry — to take much more control over what we do online.

As I understand it (from the Wired report), the Commission has approved ‘compromise’ net neutrality rules that would forbid the nation’s largest cable and DSL internet service providers from blocking or slowing online services, while leaving wireless companies with much more latitude.

In other words, the Commission is imposing neutrality on the past (the old world of wired, cable connections) while leaving the wireless future open for all kinds of anti-competitive behaviour by corporations.

Net Neutrality is a concept like ‘transparency’ — something that most people are vaguely in favour of without realising what it really means. One consequence of this is that they are not motivated to defend it when it’s threatened: it’s hard to fight for something that you only vaguely understand. And yet, in principle, it’s not that complicated. Dan Gillmor articulates net neutrality as “the notion that end users (you and me) should decide what content and services we want without interference from the ISPs”. In other words, they provide the pipes (for which they get paid) and leave us free to choose what we want to pull down through them.

Neutrality is important because it’s the reason why the Internet has been such an enabler of innovation up to now. If you have a good idea and it can be realised with data-packets, then the Net will do it for you, no questions asked. But for that to work, all packets have to be treated as equals, unless there’s a good technical reason not to do so. What mustn’t happen is that some packets get preferential treatment simply because the outfit that creates them pays the provider of the pipes an extra fee because then the barrier to entry suddenly becomes a lot higher and disruptive innovation gets choked off. Which of course is exactly what the big multimedia companies and Telcos want to happen.

Given that in the future people will increasingly get their Internet connections wirelessly rather than through land-based connections, relaxing the rules for neutrality in the wireless arena is really worrying — as Tim Wu explained in this terrific interview that I blogged a few weeks ago.

Tim’s new book — The Master Switch: The Rise and Fall of Information Empires — provides the sombre context for all this. In it, he looks back at the history of information industries and concludes that they all go through a cycle (what he calls “The Cycle”) in which they start open and wind up closed. “History shows”, he writes,

a typical progression of information technologies: from somebody’s hobby to somebody’s industry; from jury-rigged contraption to slick production marvel; from a freely-accessible channel to one strictly controlled by a single corporation or cartel — from open to closed system.

Wu argues that this historical cycle is not just an academic concern. For if the Cycle is

not merely a pattern but an inevitability, the fact that the Internet, more than any technological wonder before it, has truly become the fabric of our lives means we are sooner or later in for a very jarring turn of history’s wheel. Though it’s a cliche to say so, we do have have an information-based economy and society. Our past is one of far less reliance on information than we experience today, and that lesser reliance was served by several information industries at once. Our future, however, is almost certain to be an intensification of our present reality: greater and greater information dependence in every matter of life and work, and all that needed information increasingly traveling a single network we call the Internet. If the Internet, whose present openness has become a way of life, should prove as much subject to the Cycle as every other information network before it, the practical consequences will be staggering. And already there are signs that the good old days of a completely open network are ending.

Spot on. Today’s FCC ruling represents a significant step down that road.

Diplomatic and Internet protocols

Interesting openDemocracy piece by Luis de Miranda.

In what way are the Internet and diplomacy similar? Both are governed by very strict protocols, but their strictures are somehow each others’ opposites. Diplomatic protocol lives on the surface of things, a layer of varnish that actually allows all the treachery, hypocrisy and dirty dealings to go on. The protocol is theatre, while shenanigans play out in the shadows. The rigor of the Internet, on the other hand, operates in all that is invisible: the source code, the programming language standards, the networking standards (TCP/IP, HTML, RFCs). What is on the surface on the web is joyful chaos, depravity, free expression, every manifestation of the kaleidoscope of humanity. We have all been somewhat aware of the stuffy old world of diplomatic protocol, the attention to etiquette and to the rank of governments and their envoys. We are less familiar with the new world of digital protocol…

WikiLeaks: two challenges for journalism

Simon Andrewes came to Cambridge last week to give an interesting talk in our Arcadia Seminar series on how the organisation of BBC News has changed over the last decade in response to the need to make financial savings and to address the demands of our emerging media ecosystem. One of the things that interested me particularly was his sketch of the powerful tools the BBC is building to enable its journalists to keep on top of complex, fast-moving stories. Among other things, these new IT tools enable the Beeb to create ‘story communities’ based on its staff across the world who are working on aspects of a big story.

The WikiLeaks controversy is, par excellence, such a story and, like many bloggers, academics and media commentators, I’ve been struggling to (a) keep up with it, and (b) make sense of it. Neither task is easy. Here’s a concept map I drew when first thinking about it. (Click on the map to see a more readable version.)

And this is just a very incomplete sketch of it. Yet onto each blob on the map I could map dozens of cogent references, commentaries and websites. So merely ‘keeping up’ with the story is a Herculean, not to say Sisyphean, task.

The second great challenge is how to make sense of all this. Most people cope with this problem by, effectively, reducing its variety. They decide to take a particular view — which enables them to slash a path through the thicket by choosing which aspects to pay attention to, and which to ignore. But what if one declines to take this simplifying route?

We need tools to help with this.

Sensemaking is what my Open University colleague Simon Buckingham-Shum has been working on for years. He calls it knowledge cartography and has developed tools like Compendium, a software tool for mapping information, ideas and arguments. This screencast gives a good overview of what’s involved in using the tool.

UPDATES:
1. The concept map has been updated to remove an incorrect reference to EasyDNS. Wikileaks’s provider of DNS services was EveryDNS. Thanks to everyone who pointed out the error.

2. Interesting visualisation of data about the leaked cables here.