W: an empty shell?

Last night we went to see W, Oliver Stone’s biopic about the life and disasters of George W Bush. The title comes from the fact that he is apparently known as ‘doubleya’ (or even ‘dubya’) by his friends and most of his family (though his Pa calls him ‘Junior’). I was disposed to like the film, but I’m afraid it’s a turkey despite a few good performances (notably by Josh Brolin as Dubya, Elizabeth Banks as Laura Bush and Richard Dreyfuss as an authentically creepy Dick Cheney). I’m glad I saw it after Obama’s victory rather than before the election, because the main thought it provokes is wonderment that such a gang of warped, dysfunctional cretins could take over the government of a civilised country.

The obvious comparison is with Stone’s Nixon, which I think is a fine and absorbing film. One reason why W is so unsatisfactory might be that the current President’s character isn’t able to bear the weight, whereas Nixon, for all his many defects (or perhaps because of them) was a genuinely interesting and complex man. So in making W Stone was effectively probing an empty shell.

All of which makes me think that perhaps the upcoming Frost/Nixon film might be genuinely interesting.

Fruitcakes of the world, unite!

The Economist has received some hilarious objections to its endorsement of Barack Obama. This is the wackiest (from some guy in Missouri).

SIR –America’s election laws prohibit foreigners from contributing to the campaigns of elected officials. By publishing your endorsement before the election, you attempted to influence the electorate in a way that has far more impact than contributing money. You have, in effect, violated the spirit and intent of American law. Your European welfare-state mentality inevitably biased your conclusions. Americans are a centre-right people, whereas Britain is at best left-centre (word order is paramount here).

The nicest letter came from someone in Italy:

SIR – I would like to congratulate Mr Obama on his brilliant victory. In his official capacity as president of the United States he will probably have to meet our prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi. I apologise in advance.

Obama’s economics transition team

Wonderful rant by Willem Buiter in his excoriation of Obama’s economics advisory board. In a nutshell, the team is too old, has too few professional economists, too many people associated with past failures, is stuffed with protectionists — and has too many lawyers. It’s this last that gets Professor Buiter really riled.

According to Legal Reform Now! there are 1,143,358 lawyers in the US, one for every 200 adults. The main problem is not that there are over a million socially unproductive lawyers in the US. The problem is that these lawyers are an essential component of a dysfunctional legal framework that has created the most litigious society in the world. The damage this dysfunctional legal framework causes must be measured not primarily by the direct cost of litigation, astounding though it is, but through the actions not undertaken and the creative and productive deeds not done because of fear of litigation. The first thing we do…

Except for a depressingly small minority among them, lawyers know nothing. They are incapable of logic. They don’t know the difference between necessary and sufficient conditions or between type I and type II errors. Indeed, any concept of probability is alien to them. They don’t understand the concepts of opportunity cost and trade off. They cannot distinguish between normative and positive statements. They are so focused on winning an argument through technicalities, that they no longer would recognise the truth if it bit them in the butt. If you are very lucky, a lawyer will give you nothing but the truth. You will never get the truth, let alone the whole truth. Things have degenerated to the point that lawyers and the legal profession not only routinely undermine justice, but even the law.

But the American political system is completely dominated by this largely socially unproductive and parasitic profession. Consider the membership of the House and the Senate (according to the Congressional Research Service 170 members of the House (out of 435) and 60 Senators (out of 100) are lawyers). Consider the professional training and background of past and future presidents (including Obama, 26 out of 44 presidents were lawyers) – and weep.

The Joshua Generation

David Remnick has a terrific essay in the New Yorker reflecting on Obama’s campaign and the role that race played in it. As with everything Remnick writes, it’s beautifully crafted and thoughtful. It ends like this:

Just a few minutes before eleven last Tuesday night, when Barack and Michelle Obama and their daughters walked out on the stage at Grant Park, and everyone around was screaming, chanting, and waving flags, the long campaign came to an end. Joy was in the faces of the people all around me, there was crying and shouting, but Obama seemed to bear a certain gravity, his voice infused not with jubilation but with a sense of the historical moment.

“If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer,” he began.

Obama had done it one last time. Having cast himself in Selma twenty months ago as one who stood on the “shoulders of giants,” as the leader of the Joshua generation, he hardly had to mention race. It was the thing always present, the thing so rarely named. He had simultaneously celebrated identity and pushed it into the background. “Change has come to America,” Obama declared, and everyone in a park remembered until now as the place where, forty summers ago, police did outrageous battle with antiwar protesters knew what change had come, and that—how long? too long—it was about damned time.

The same issue also has an interesting article by David Grann pondering how John McCain — a fundamentally decent man by all accounts — will recover from running a campaign which betrayed all his former principles about not taking “the low road” adopted by George Bush and Karl Rove when they destroyed his Primary campaign in 2000. Did his graceful concession speech come too late to rescue his self-respect? How can he live with himself, given the way his campaign developed into the hate-fest of the last few weeks? We will see.

Foresight

From Dave Winer

Barack Obama, who’s running for the Senate in Illinois, spoke briefly at the Blogger’s Breakfast. He’s an up and coming star of the Democratic Party, according to David Weinberger, he’ll be President in 12 years.

The post was dated 26 July 2004.

WebPolitics 2.0

This morning’s Observer column

A few days ago we had the extraordinary spectacle of a Republican presidential candidate complaining that his rival had more money to spend on TV advertising than he had. To those of us who grew up in an era when conservatives always had more money and controlled the dominant communications media, this was truly extraordinary. It summoned up memories of Adlai Stevenson, George McGovern, Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock running doomed, underfunded campaigns against opponents who had cash to burn and the best PR expertise money could buy…

MORE: Fascinating video interview with Jascha Franklin-Hodge — cofounder of Blue State Digital, which built Obama’s online social-networking tools — describes how the president-elect’s social-networking strategy made for a well-oiled Election Day effort. And how it can be used in government.

Lest we forget

John McCain’s graceful concession speech ought not to obscure some uncomfortable truths, of which the most important (and scariest) is that over 46 per cent of the US electorate voted for him and his fruitcake of a running mate. Or, as Andrew Sullivan put it:

Now all I want to say here, ahem, is that they realized all this about this person within a few days of picking her and yet they went ahead for two months bullshitting us … and risking the live possibility that she could be president of the United States at a moment’s notice after next January.

You know: I took a lot of grief for my pretty instant realization back in August that the Palin candidacy was a total farce. But when you cop to the fact that the McCain peeps knew most of that too very early on after their world-historical screw-up, you’ve got to respect and be terrified by their cynicism. I mean: country first?

And they only lost by a few points?

The strange death of Republican America

It’s 2.30am and I’m turning in, convinced that the nightmare of Bush/Cheney is nearly over. But before heading for bed, I came on this nice piece by Sidney Blumenthal in openDemocracy

In 29 July 2008, President George W Bush appeared at the Lincoln Electric Company in Euclid, Ohio, where he spoke about energy and then asked the audience for questions. The opportunity for people in a small town in the midwest to pose a question directly to the president of the United States is a rare one, possibly a once-in-a-lifetime experience. “And now I’d like to answer some questions, if you have any”, said Bush. But his request was returned with silence. Bush filled the air with an awkward joke: “After seven-and-a-half years, if I can’t figure out how to dodge them, I shouldn’t…” The audience tittered nervously. Bush continued, “If you don’t have any questions, I can tell you a lot of interesting stories.” The crowd laughed again, but no one raised a hand. “Okay”, said Bush, “I’ll tell you a story.”

Palin: last of the culture warriors?

Intriguing Peter Beinart piece in the Washington Post, speculating on why Palin’s rhetoric hasn’t worked this time.

The relationship between prosperity and cultural conflict isn’t exact, of course, but it is significant that during this era’s culture war we’ve gone a quarter-century without a serious recession. Economic issues have mattered in presidential elections, of course, but not until today have we faced an economic crisis so grave that it made cultural questions seem downright trivial. In 2000, in the wake of an economic boom and a sex scandal that led to a president’s impeachment, 22 percent of Americans told exit pollsters that “moral values” were their biggest concern, compared with only 19 percent who cited the economy.

Today, according to a recent Newsweek poll, the economy is up to 44 percent and “issues like abortion, guns and same-sex marriage” down to only 6 percent. It’s no coincidence that Palin’s popularity has plummeted as the financial crisis has taken center stage. From her championing of small-town America to her efforts to link Barack Obama to former domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, Palin is treading a path well-worn by Republicans in recent decades. She’s depicting the campaign as a struggle between the culturally familiar and the culturally threatening, the culturally traditional and the culturally exotic. But Obama has dismissed those attacks as irrelevant, and the public, focused nervously on the economic collapse, has largely tuned them out.

Palin’s attacks are also failing because of generational change. The long-running, internecine baby boomer cultural feud just isn’t that relevant to Americans who came of age after the civil rights, gay rights and feminist revolutions. Even many younger evangelicals are broadening their agendas beyond abortion, stem cells, school prayer and gay marriage. And just as younger Protestants found JFK less threatening than their parents had found Al Smith, younger whites — even in bright-red states — don’t view the prospect of a black president with great alarm.

The economic challenges of the coming era are complicated, fascinating and terrifying, while the cultural battles of the 1960s feel increasingly stale. If John McCain loses tomorrow, the GOP will probably choose someone like Mitt Romney or Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal to lead it back from the wilderness, someone who — although socially conservative — speaks fluently about the nation’s economic plight and doesn’t try to substitute identity for policy. Although she seems like a fresh face, Sarah Palin actually represents the end of an era. She may be the last culture warrior on a national ticket for a very long time.

Hmmm… we’ll see.