Jobs: Great unwashed don’t need PCs

Hmmm… This from TechEye.

It is official: Steve Jobs no longer thinks that PCs are going to be that important.

Speaking at the D8 conference, the Apple supremo said the day is coming when only one out of "every few people" will need a traditional computer.

For evidence he said that when the US was an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms.

"Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular," he said.

He thinks that PCs are going to be like trucks. They are still going to be around… but only "one out of x people will need them."

Of course x is an unknown figure so Jobs is hedging his bets a bit. He could mean that only one in ten people will need one or one in two. It is a moot point if very many people need one now, but whether or not they own one is another matter.

Jobs claimed that advances in chips and software will allow tablet devices like the iPad to do tasks that today are really only suited for a traditional computer, things like video editing and graphic arts work.

He said that the move will make many PC veterans uneasy, "because the PC has taken us a long way."

"We like to talk about the post-PC era, but when it really starts to happen, it's uncomfortable," he said.

Needless to say, Ray Ozzie doesn’t agree.

BP: beyond irony

Stephen Hsu posted this image on his blog under the heading “BP advertisement from 1999”. The date (1999) seems improbable, in that BP didn’t enter the US market until 1998 (when it merged with Amoco) and the logo wasn’t launched until the company rebranded itself as BP plc in 2001. That doesn’t mean that the image of the ad is faked, only that the date attributed to it is wrong. Whatever the truth of the matter, it’s clever.

LATER: Mystery solved. Dermot Casey tweets that it’s from a t-shirt made by Despair Inc..

Quote of the day

“The brains of members of the Press departments of motion-picture studios resemble soup at a cheap restaurant. It is wiser not to stir them.”

P.G. Wodehouse, Blandings Castle and Elsewhere

How the Grid can ruin your alibi

This is both creepy and fascinating — from The Register.

ENF [electrical network frequency] analysis relies on frequency variations in the electricity supplied by the National Grid. Digital devices such as CCTV recorders, telephone recorders and camcorders that are plugged in to or located near the mains pick up these deviations in the power supply, which are caused by peaks and troughs in demand. Battery-powered devices are not immune to to ENF analysis, as grid frequency variations can be induced in their recordings from a distance.

At the Metropolitan Police's digital forensics lab in Penge, south London, scientists have created a database that has recorded these deviations once every one and a half seconds for the last five years. Over a short period they form a unique signature of the electrical frequency at that time, which research has shown is the same in London as it is in Glasgow.

On receipt of recordings made by the police or public, the scientists are able to detect the variations in mains electricity occuring at the time the recording was made. This signature is extracted and automatically matched against their ENF database, which indicates when it was made.

The technique can also uncover covert editing – or rule it out, as in the recent murder trial – because a spliced recording will register more than one ENF match.

The Met emphasised that ENF analysis is in its infancy as a practical tool, having been used in only around five cases to date. Proponents are optimistic about its uses in counter-terrorism investigations, for example to establish when suspects made reconnaissance videos of their targets, or to uncover editing in propaganda videos.

Dr Alan Cooper, the leader of the Met’s ENF project, said the technique is proving invaluable in serious cases, where audio and video evidence and its authenticity is often questioned.

The Pain Caucus

Further to my musings about the new definition of ‘courage’ as the willingness to inflict financial pain on others, here’s an interesting NYT column by Paul Krugman.

The extent to which inflicting economic pain has become the accepted thing was driven home to me by the latest report on the economic outlook from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, an influential Paris-based think tank supported by the governments of the world’s advanced economies. The O.E.C.D. is a deeply cautious organization; what it says at any given time virtually defines that moment’s conventional wisdom. And what the O.E.C.D. is saying right now is that policy makers should stop promoting economic recovery and instead begin raising interest rates and slashing spending.

What’s particularly remarkable about this recommendation is that it seems disconnected not only from the real needs of the world economy, but from the organization’s own economic projections.

Thus, the O.E.C.D. declares that interest rates in the United States and other nations should rise sharply over the next year and a half, so as to head off inflation. Yet inflation is low and declining, and the O.E.C.D.’s own forecasts show no hint of an inflationary threat. So why raise rates?

The answer, as best I can make it out, is that the organization believes that we must worry about the chance that markets might start expecting inflation, even though they shouldn’t and currently don’t: We must guard against “the possibility that longer-term inflation expectations could become unanchored in the O.E.C.D. economies, contrary to what is assumed in the central projection.”

Next stage in the battle for corporate control of the Net

Interesting story in today’s NYT.

After a towing company hauled Justin Kurtz’s car from his apartment complex parking lot, despite his permit to park there, Mr. Kurtz, 21, a college student in Kalamazoo, Mich., went to the Internet for revenge.

Outraged at having to pay $118 to get his car back, Mr. Kurtz created a Facebook page called “Kalamazoo Residents against T&J Towing.” Within two days, 800 people had joined the group, some posting comments about their own maddening experiences with the company.

T&J filed a defamation suit against Mr. Kurtz, claiming the site was hurting business and seeking $750,000 in damages.

Web sites like Facebook, Twitter and Yelp have given individuals a global platform on which to air their grievances with companies. But legal experts say the soaring popularity of such sites has also given rise to more cases like Mr. Kurtz’s, in which a business sues an individual for posting critical comments online.

The towing company’s lawyer said that it was justified in removing Mr. Kurtz’s car because the permit was not visible, and that the Facebook page was costing it business and had unfairly damaged its reputation.

Some First Amendment lawyers see the case differently. They consider the lawsuit an example of the latest incarnation of a decades-old legal maneuver known as a strategic lawsuit against public participation, or Slapp.

The label has traditionally referred to meritless defamation suits filed by businesses or government officials against citizens who speak out against them. The plaintiffs are not necessarily expecting to succeed — most do not — but rather to intimidate critics who are inclined to back down when faced with the prospect of a long, expensive court battle.

I was wondering how long it would take before this kind of thing started to happen. What it highlights is the need for pro bono lawyers who are willing to provide the initial cover that will prevent legal intimidation from having the desired effect.

How to stop shoulder surfers

From New Scientist.

IN CROWDED cafes and on public transport, it's easy for people to eyeball the info on your laptop or smartphone screen. Now Sony Ericsson is patenting an answer.

Some privacy settings already let you hit a button to blank your screen when you sense a shoulder surfer is lurking. But we are often too engrossed in our work to notice such interlopers, say inventors Martin Ek and Bo Larsson.

As many netbooks and laptops now have webcams, and some smartphones have front-facing cameras, the pair have developed software that can tell when more than one face is in front of the device – and blanks the screen till they're gone (bit.ly/9fp5Gj).

They suggest certain friends could be allowed to read your screen if facial recognition software is used to exempt them from the blanking mechanism.

With one bound, the Times’s law-blogger is free!

Well, well. BabyBarista, whose witty law blog has hitherto been a must-read on the Times site, has jumped ship.

I have today withdrawn the BabyBarista Blog from The Times in reaction to their plans to hide it away behind a paywall along with their other content. Now don’t get me wrong. I have absolutely no problem with the decision to start charging. They can do what they like. But I didn’t start this blog for it to be the exclusive preserve of a limited few subscribers. I wrote it to entertain whosoever wishes to read it. Hence my decision to resign which I made with regret. I remain extremely grateful to The Times for hosting the blog for the last three years and wish them luck with their experiment. I hope very much you like the new site and also the addition of the wonderful cartoons by Hollywood animator Alex Williams who also draws the Queen’s Counsel cartoons for The Times.

Good for him.

LATER: Just noticed that Roy Greenslade has more on this. It seems that BabyBarista (aka Tim Kevan) has some reservations about the Murdoch paywall:

I think the decision will prove to be a disaster. There are so many innovative ways of making cash online and the decision to plump for an across-the-board blanket subscription over the whole of their content makes them look like a big lumbering giant, unable to cope with the diversification of the media brought about by online content, blogging, Facebook, Twitter – the list is endless.

Canute-like in their determination to stop the tide of free content and using a top down strategy which makes even the Post Office look dynamic.

Now for the next interesting question: what will Mary Beard, the Cambridge Professor of Classics, do? Her blog has hitherto been the other reason for reading the Times.

Pigeon held in India on suspicion of spying for Pakistan

No, I have not made this up. It was in the Daily Telegraph, so it must be true, mustn’t it?

Indian police are holding a pigeon under armed guard after it was caught on an alleged spying mission for arch rivals and neighbours Pakistan, according to reports in local media.

Published: 4:33PM BST 28 May 2010

The white-coloured bird was found by a local resident in India's Punjab state, which borders Pakistan, and taken to a police station 25 miles from the capital Amritsar.

The pigeon had a ring around its foot and a Pakistani telephone number and address stamped on its body in red ink.

Ramdas Jagjit Singh Chahal, a police officer, said he suspected that the pigeon had landed on Indian soil from Pakistan with a message, although no trace of a note has been found.

Officials have directed that no-one be allowed to visit the pigeon, which police say may have been on a “special mission of spying”.

The bird has been medically examined and was being kept in an air-conditioned room under police guard.

Senior officers have asked to be kept updated on the situation three times a day, according to a report from the Press Trust of India (PTI) news agency.

What motivates us?

As a co-founder and director of a technology start-up, I’ve thought a lot about what motivates staff. And I’ve been puzzled for years by a contradication that I’ve continually encountered. I’ve known lots of successful people in my time, and yet I cannot think of a single one who’s been primarily motivated by financial incentives. That’s not to say that they don’t like earning a decent salary, just that they’re not driven by money. And yet in business — and, during the New Labour years at least — in the public services also, the conventional wisdom is that financial incentives are the way to get higher performance from staff.

So you can see why I was fascinated by this cleverly-illustrated version of Daniel Pink’s RSA lecture about motivation, which is based on his book Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us. (Full lecture here.) The essence of it is that financial incentives and penalties work well for jobs/tasks that are dull and repetitive and impose a low cognitive load on those who do them. But the minute one’s dealing with roles which are intellectually challenging, then the carrots-and-sticks approach fails.

Interesting, don’t you think? It becomes even more interesting when one sees that Neil Davidson, the co-founder of Red Gate Software, one of the most interesting and admired companies in Cambridge, decided to abandon the complex commission structure the company had developed to motivate its salesforce and replace it with a system based on (increased) flat salaries. Guess what? It works just fine, and Red Gate is taking its market by storm.

Now, here’s the really interesting bit. You may remember that whenever the issue of paying obscene bonuses to investment bankers is raised, we are solemnly informed by the directors of publicly-rescued banks that it’s essential to continue to pay said bonuses because otherwise the aforementioned wizards will go elsewhere. The clear inference is that they are entirely motivated by financial incentives, viz bonuses. But if it’s really true that financial incentives are what motivates bankers, then doesn’t it follow that the work they do is repetitive, dull and imposes a low cognitive load? And if that is indeed the case, then why don’t we just replace them with software and have done with the whole grisly business?