My ol’ Burgundian Home

If I had a house en Bourgogne (which, alas, I don’t), I’d like one like this.

And then I’d ask Randy Newman to do a variation on this for me.

Quote of the Day

”My problem lies in reconciling my gross habits with my net income.”

• Errol Flynn

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Maxwell Quartet | Cill Mhuire

Link

Long Read of the Day

Same bullshit, new tin

Charlie Stross (Whom God Preserve), reacting to plaintive cries about restoring National Service to boost UK defence capabilities, explains why Britain couldn’t do conscription now, even if Vlad the Impaler had arrived in Calais.

The Tories run this flag up the mast regularly whenever they want to boost their popularity with the geriatric demographic who remember national service (abolished 60 years ago, in 1963). Thatcher did it in the early 80s; the Army general staff told her to piss off. And the pols have gotten the same reaction ever since. This time the call is coming from inside the house—it’s a general, not a politician—but it still won’t work because changes to the structure of the British society and economy since 1979 (hint: Thatcher’s revolution) make it impossible.

Reasons it won’t work: there are two aspects, infrastructure and labour.

Let’s look at infrastructure first: if you have conscripts, it follows that you need to provide uniforms, food, and beds for them. Less obviously, you need NCOs to shout at them and teach them to brush their teeth and tie their bootlaces (because a certain proportion of your intake will have missed out on the basics). The barracks that used to be used for a large conscript army were all demolished or sold off decades ago, we don’t have half a million spare army uniforms sitting in a warehouse somewhere, and the army doesn’t currently have ten thousand or more spare training sergeants sitting idle…

Vlad doesn’t have the same problem: Russia kept National Service. Do read on, though.

Books, etc.

This arrived yesterday, and it’ll make good weekend reading. Ethan Mollick was one of the first academics to spot that Generative AI could represent a significant augmentation of human capability, and he became an imaginative early adopter and user of the technology in his teaching at Wharton. I knew that he had a book in the works, and this is just a Reader’s Proof copy, but Amazon says it’ll be out on April 4.

My commonplace booklet

Every so often Esquire magazine exhumes a few classic pieces from its archive. This week it came up with “Follow That Man in the Trench Coat!”, George Frazier’s profile of Humphrey Bogart published in May 1955.

Here’s a sample:

As irresistible as he seems to most people, Humphrey DeForest Bogart must be something of a trial to those who contend u that the willful neglect of virtues like temperance, tact, submissiveness to constituted authority, and turning the other cheek has its disadvantages. According to their lights, Bogart, who was fifty-five on Christmas Day, should long since have perished of such prankish practices as “getting a little drunk from drinking”; addressing his autograph-seeking devotees as “loathsome little monsters”; exposing his starchy superiors to ridicule; and responding to raillery by feinting at the offender’s face with a lighted cigarette. As it happens, however, Bogart, who earns more than half a million dollars a year as a result of his participation in such conspicuously successful films of recent months as The Barefoot Contessa, Sabrina, and The Caine Mutiny, and in the forthcoming We’re No Angels and The Desperate Hours, is happier, healthier, and more prosperous than at any other time in a career stretching back over some thirty years, several dozen plays, and seventy movies.

Others, of course, have also made their mark without heed to the counsel of the copybooks, and, for that matter, there have even been those who, in one way or another, were just as assertively nonconformist as he, among them Errol Flynn, who one night not long ago stepped out onto the stage at the London Palladium and proceeded to read aloud from The Kinsey Report. But such transgressions have almost always been followed by abject contrition. What sets Bogart apart is his apparent determination to flaunt his nonconformities so repeatedly and to such a degree that he seems obsessed by a terror of respectability and remorse. Four years ago, for example, when the Stork Club concluded, as El Morocco had a year and a half before, that it had had quite enough of his high spirits, his reaction was somewhat less penitent than might have been expected.

“The challengers will never overtake me now,” he announced gleefully. “I still have several more days to go in New York and feel with a little effort on my part I can probably get barred from Central Park and Ebbets Field. As a matter of fact, the only places I am really socially acceptable now are ‘21’ and Grand Central. Put it down to natural charm. I’m loaded with it. And experience, too. It takes a long time to develop a repulsive character like mine. You don’t get to be the Boris Karloff of the supper clubs overnight. You’ve got to work at it.”

They don’t write profiles like that nowadays. Last one who did was Ken Tynan, who was the Observer’s drama critic long before I joined the paper. His New Yorker profile of Mel Brooks is a classic of the genre. If you are tempted to read it, make sure not to do so in a public place or in a crowded railway carriage.

Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

• Helen Mirren Rips Up AI-Generated Speech at American Cinematheque

From Variety…

After being presented with the lifetime achievement award by her “Mosquito Coast” and “1923” co-star Harrison Ford at the Beverly Hilton gala, Mirren began to read her acceptance speech from a piece of a paper.

“Ladies and gentlemen and esteemed guests and dear friends, I am deeply humbled, profoundly honored to stand before you today accepting this extraordinary award. To be recognized for a lifetime devoted to the craft of acting is a privilege beyond words,” she said dramatically. “First and foremost, I want to express my heartfelt gratitude to the industry and the individuals who have supported me throughout this incredible journey. It is has been a life filled with passion, challenges and above all, an unyielding love for the art of storytelling.”

Then she added, “And that was written by AI,” before proceeding to tear up the speech and letting the pieces of paper fall to the stage floor.

The moment was met with applause and cheering.

Attagirl!

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After Vermeer

Quote of the Day

”Everything will be all right, and, even if it isn’t, we’ll have the consolation of having lived honest lives.”

• Alexei Navalny

(h/t John Seeley)

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Chris McMullan | The Lark in the Morning (Jig)

Link

Such a lovely tune. Also a good illustration of why Uileann pipes are difficult to play well. There’s a nice adaptation of the tune for the Bouzouki by Tijn Berends here (plus another tune, The High Drive).

Long Read of the Day

The Political Economy of AI

If ever I get round to compiling a collection of seminal essays on AI, Henry Farrell will have a prominent place in the list of authors. If you want to see why, then set aside some time for this essay, in which he takes Alison Gopnik’s insightful idea that LLMs (Large Language Models like CPT-4 et al) are not AIs (as the tech industry maintains) but cultural technologies like books and libraries and explores the implications of that idea.

It’s long but IMO well worth it.

Here’s how Henry sums it up at the end:

LLMs are cultural technologies of summarization, whose value depends on people continuing to actually produce culture that can usefully be summarized. Absent intervention, LLMs will likely develop, as other technologies such as Internet search have, in ways that benefit their makers at the expense of others. The summarizations that they produce risk supplanting the culture that they feed on.

This would be a terrible outcome. Borges wrote a famous, very short story about what happens when the map comes fully to displace the territory.

In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection that the map of a single Province occupied the entirety of a City, and the map of the Empire, the entirety of a Province. In time, those Unconscionable Maps no longer satisfied, and the Cartographers Guilds struck a Map of the Empire whose size was that of the Empire, and which coincided point for point with it. The following Generations, who were not so fond of the Study of Cartography as their Forebears had been, saw that that vast Map was Useless, and not without some Pitilessness was it, that they delivered it up to the Inclemencies of Sun and Winters. In the Deserts of the West, still today, there are Tattered Ruins of that Map, inhabited by Animals and Beggars; in all the Land there is no other Relic of the Disciplines of Geography.

The maps that are eating our world might end up being useless for completely different reasons. But the resulting Deserts of the West would not be any more hospitable to intellectual life.

And that’s without taking into account the question highlighted by Ross Anderson: will LLMs choke on their own exhaust?

Why Cold War 2.0 will be different from its predecessor

From Noah Smith…

The U.S. overwhelmed its opponents in World War 2 by outproducing them. In the Cold War, the U.S. and its developed democratic allies were able to outmatch the USSR in an arms race, and to gain an edge in precision weaponry through their mastery of the semiconductor industry. But in Cold War 2, the economic dominance that propelled liberal nations to victory in the 20th century no longer exists. China’s transformation into the world’s factory equalized the balance of economic might between autocratic and democratic countries:

This, fundamentally, is the reason the New Axis is a dire threat to the liberal world order. If China weren’t such a manufacturing powerhouse, Russia’s combination of aggression, oil revenue, nuclear bluster, and information operations would certainly be annoying, but wouldn’t represent a real challenge to the alliances that defeated it in the first Cold War. It’s only because of the looming specter of Chinese manufacturing might that Russia and Iran are more than just rogue states. As things stand, China threatens to be able to overwhelm the U.S. in a war, in much the same way that the U.S. overran the Axis powers in WW2.

Sobering, ne c’est pas?

Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

The Winterkeeper Link

Steven Fuller is a winter caretaker who has lived at Yellowstone national park for the past 50 years. As the cold weather approaches and the seasonal transformation begins, he hunkers down in his remote mountain cabin. Lovely video.

Errata

This blog is generally put together at the end of a long and busy day. So every Monday, Wednesday and Friday morning I wake up with a sinking feeling that somewhere in that day’s edition there will be misspelt words, missing apostrophes and other proofreading atrocities. And indeed there often are. For which I crave your indulgence. Like most authors, I am my own worst editor.

This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!

W.B.’s last resting place

Drumcliff Churchyard, Co Sligo. We always pay him a visit when we’re on the road to Donegal.

Quote of the Day

”I don’t know the question, but sex is definitely the answer.”

• Woody Allen

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Alison Krauss, Shawn Colvin, Jerry Douglas | The Boxer | Live

Link

Long Read of the Day

Chatbots Will Change How We Talk to People

Interesting, reflective piece by Albert Fox Cahn and Bruce Schneier in The Atlantic about how familiarity with ‘AI’ systems will have effects that we haven’t yet appreciated.

Chatbots are growing only more common, and there is reason to believe they will become ever more intimate parts of our lives. The market for AI companions, ranging from friends to romantic partners, is already crowded. Several companies are working on AI assistants, akin to secretaries or butlers, that will anticipate and satisfy our needs. And other companies are working on AI therapists, mediators, and life coaches—even simulacra of our dead relatives. More generally, chatbots will likely become the interface through which we interact with all sorts of computerized processes—an AI that responds to our style of language, every nuance of emotion, even tone of voice.

Many users will be primed to think of these AIs as friends, rather than the corporate-created systems that they are…

Read on.

One of the longer-term implications may be that this new kind of faux-intimacy will affect how we converse with… other humans. Raises the question of whether it’s the next step on the road to “Re-engineering Humanity”?

Sam Altman wants $7tn to build AGI

Yesterday’s Observer column..

Once upon a time, nobody outside tech circles had heard of Sam Altman. But then his company, OpenAI, launched ChatGPT, and suddenly he was everywhere – touring the world, giving interviews to gushing journalists, granting audiences to awestruck politicians etc. Whiplash-thin, with a charmingly wide-eyed baby face, he instantly became the acceptable face of digital capitalism.

Then the OpenAI board abruptly fired him, apparently on the grounds that he had not been, er, entirely candid with them. When Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s CEO (who had invested $13bn in OpenAI), heard about it, though, he was mightily pissed off. And in no time all, Altman was unsacked and reinstated in the OpenAI driving seat. And the world was transfixed by the drama of it all. Which only goes to show that appearances can be deceptive.

If the world had read Tad Friend’s profile of Altman, which appeared in the New Yorker in 2016, it might have been less overawed…

Read on

Remembering Andrew

Andrew Fowles, the much loved Head Porter of my College (Wolfson) died unexpectedly last week. He was a lovely, calm, cheery and approachable colleague, and his death is deeply shocking — especially as he had just arrived back from an enjoyable holiday in Australia. He will be sorely missed.

I’ve always thought that for students the most important people in their college is not its Head (Master, Mistress, Provost or President, depending on the institution), or the Fellows or even the Senior Tutor. It’s the porters who rank highest for approachability and practical help. Which is why losing a Head Porter as good as Andrew is hard. It’s especially so in Wolfson, which — with students of 99 different nationalities this term — is the most cosmopolitan in Oxbridge. For them, the Porters’ Lodge is often the first port of call.

May he rest in peace.

My commonplace booklet

I came on this extraordinary painting — “The Death of Marat” by Jacques-Louis David — the other day and was intrigued by it. It depicts the artist’s friend, the French revolutionary leader, Jean-Paul Marat, who was killed by Charlotte Corday, a political enemy who blamed him for a series of killings of prisoners and civilians that occurred in September 1792. Corday fatally stabbed Marat while he was in his bathtub, but did not attempt to flee. She was later tried and executed for the murder.

What struck me about the painting was its extraordinary realism, so of course I disappeared down an interesting online rabbit-hole (as one does). There’s a good Wikipedia page about it, and an excellent Encyclopedia Britannica account of the background to the depicted event.

Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

Air Canada must honour refund policy invented by airline’s chatbot  Cautionary tale for any company thinking of entrusting its customer-service front end to a chatbot.

After months of resisting, Air Canada was forced to give a partial refund to a grieving passenger who was misled by an airline chatbot inaccurately explaining the airline’s bereavement travel policy.

On the day Jake Moffatt’s grandmother died, Moffat immediately visited Air Canada’s website to book a flight from Vancouver to Toronto. Unsure of how Air Canada’s bereavement rates worked, Moffatt asked Air Canada’s chatbot to explain.

The chatbot provided inaccurate information, encouraging Moffatt to book a flight immediately and then request a refund within 90 days. In reality, Air Canada’s policy explicitly stated that the airline will not provide refunds for bereavement travel after the flight is booked. Moffatt dutifully attempted to follow the chatbot’s advice and request a refund but was shocked that the request was rejected.

Moffatt tried for months to convince Air Canada that a refund was owed, sharing a screenshot from the chatbot that clearly claimed:

If you need to travel immediately or have already travelled and would like to submit your ticket for a reduced bereavement rate, kindly do so within 90 days of the date your ticket was issued by completing our Ticket Refund Application form.

Moffat filed a complaint with Canada’s Civil Resolution Tribunal.

According to Air Canada, Moffatt never should have trusted the chatbot and the airline should not be liable for the chatbot’s misleading information because Air Canada essentially argued that “the chatbot is a separate legal entity that is responsible for its own actions,” a court order said.

Don’t you love that guff about the chatbot being “a separate legal entity”. It’s a bit like “the dog ate my homework, Sir”.

Needless to say, it din’t wash with the Tribunal. And Air Canada seems to have terminated its errant bot.

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Rory

Rory Cellan-Jones has been one of my favourite journalists ever since I was the Observer’s TV critic in the 1980s and 1990s. On Wednesday afternoon he was in Cambridge at his alma mater Jesus College, and when we were going in to the event I suddenly noticed him making a last-minute phone call before going in to the auditorium for a marvellous conversation with a couple of students before an invited audience.

As we passed the window I snatched this picture which I think captures the essence of a lovely, generous man.

Quote of the Day

”Living is a compromise, between doing what you want and doing what other people want.”

• John Updike

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Liam O’Flynn and Mark Knopfler | An Droichead

Link

Two of my favourite musicians. An Droichead is Irish for ‘the bridge’.

Long Read of the Day

A Tech Overlord’s Horrifying, Silly Vision for Who Should Rule the World

Terrific blast by Elizabeth Spiers on Marc Andreessen’s “manifesto”, which has, she says, “the pathos of the Unabomber manifesto but lacks the ideological coherency”.

It takes a certain kind of person to write grandiose manifestoes for public consumption, unafflicted by self-doubt or denuded of self-interest. The latest example is Marc Andreessen, a co-founder of the top-tier venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz and best known, to those of us who came of age before TikTok, as a co-founder of the pioneering internet browser Netscape. In “The Techno-Optimist Manifesto”, a recent 5,000-plus-word post on the Andreessen Horowitz website, Mr. Andreessen outlines a vision of technologists as the authors of a future in which the “techno-capital machine” produces everything that is good in the world.

In this vision, wealthy technologists are not just leaders of their business but keepers of the social order, unencumbered by what Mr. Andreessen labels “enemies”: social responsibility, trust and safety, tech ethics, to name a few. As for the rest of us — the unwashed masses, people who have either “unskilled” jobs or useless liberal arts degrees or both — we exist mostly as automatons whose entire value is measured in productivity…

When I first read the ‘manifesto’, my first thought was that it must be a spoof; my second thought was that Andreessen was losing what might loosely be called his mind. And then it dawned on me that “the guy really believes this horseshit.”

Spiers nails the essence of this accelerating madness. Which is why it’s worth a read.

Books, etc.

• Neal Stephenson has a new book coming — but not till October. (Growl)
• Books are sharks. Ian Gaiman on something that Douglas Adams once said:

“We were talking about The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, which was something which resembled an iPad, long before it appeared. And I said when something like that happens, it’s going to be the death of the book. Douglas said no. Books are sharks,” Gaiman told a packed audience at the Royal Geographical Society in London.

“I must have looked baffled because he he looked very pleased with himself. And he carried on with his metaphor. Books are sharks … because sharks have been around for a very long time. There were sharks before there were dinosaurs, and the reason sharks are still in the ocean is that nothing is better at being a shark than a shark.”

Thanks to Simon for remembering it.

Robert Reich’s big picture

Robert Reich is an acute commentator on what’s been happening to the US over the last half-century, which is why his Substack blog is a must-read. He was Bill Clinton’s Labor Secretary, and then a professor at Berkeley (from which he recently retired). He’s also a talented cartoonist. Recently, he had a great idea: Put a huge piece of paper on a wall, and then draw on it a graphic account of what has happened to the US (and many Western democracies) over the last half-century or so.

With a team of collaborators, he made a stop-frame video of the picture’s construction which is informed, striking and insightful. (I can say that because he covers much of the stuff I’ve been thinking about for something I’m writing. Working title is How We Got Here.)

The video is here. It’s well worth your time if you think about this stuff. And it is a really Big Picture.

Politics, USA-style

From the current issue of Private Eye.

Errata

Joan Pla wrote to point out “a lapsus in [Wednesday’s] post: the name of the photographer is Sebastião Salgado. Juliano (Ribeiro) Salgado is co-directing with Wim Wenders”.`

Large portion of humble pie duly ordered.

This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!

On the beach

One of my grandsons on a Kerry beach on an Easter Sunday morning.

Quote of the Day

”Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. We should therefore claim, in the name of tolerance, the right not to tolerate the intolerant.”

• Karl Popper

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Ennio Moricone | Lady Caliph | YoYo Ma and the Roma Sinfonietta

Link

Long Read of the Day

The Rise of Techno-authoritarianism

Terrific essay by Adrienne LaFrance in The Atlantic on the underpinning ideology of Silicon Valley.

Here’s how it opens:

If you had to capture Silicon Valley’s dominant ideology in a single anecdote, you might look first to Mark Zuckerberg, sitting in the blue glow of his computer some 20 years ago, chatting with a friend about how his new website, TheFacebook, had given him access to reams of personal information about his fellow students:

zuckerberg: Yeah so if you ever need info about anyone at Harvard zuckerberg: Just ask.
zuckerberg: I have over 4,000 emails, pictures, addresses, SNS
friend: What? How’d you manage that one?
zuckerberg: People just submitted it.
zuckerberg: I don’t know why.
zuckerberg: They “trust me”
zuckerberg: Dumb fucks.

That conversation—later revealed through leaked chat records—was soon followed by another that was just as telling, if better mannered. At a now-famous Christmas party in 2007, Zuckerberg first met Sheryl Sandberg, his eventual chief operating officer, who with Zuckerberg would transform the platform into a digital imperialist superpower. There, Zuckerberg, who in Facebook’s early days had adopted the mantra “Company over country,” explained to Sandberg that he wanted every American with an internet connection to have a Facebook account. For Sandberg, who once told a colleague that she’d been “put on this planet to scale organizations,” that turned out to be the perfect mission…

It’s spot on. Worth your time.

The Salt of the Earth

This I gotta see: Wim Wenders’s film about the great photographer Juliano Salgado

The trailer is here.

My commonplace booklet

And while we’re on the subject of Karl Popper, how about ”The Open Society and its AI” by my Cambridge colleague Neil Lawrence, who has an interesting book on AI coming out in May.

Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

“Annotated version of Andreas Vesalius’s masterwork on human anatomy up for auction” 

When the Renaissance physician Andreas Vesalius wrote his magnum opus on human anatomy in 1543, he transformed the study of medicine and revolutionised the way scientists investigate the world.

A “mind-blowing” edition of his De Humani Corporis Fabrica Libri Septem, estimated to be worth up to £1m, is to be sold at auction for the first time since scholars discovered it was annotated by Vesalius himself.

The fragile, 800-page book was last sold in 2007 for about £8,500 to Dr Gerard Vogrincic, a retired Canadian pathologist and medical history buff who collects old annotated medical books.

Vogrincic’s copy was heavily annotated in Latin — which experts eventually decided were by Vesalius himself. So it’s now worth a lot more than he paid for it.

Errata

Max Whitby was struck by something I wrote in last Sunday’s edition of my Observer column:

Whenever people learn that I have an electric vehicle (EV) the conversation invariably turns to whether I suffer from “range anxiety” – the fear of running out of charge. The answer is that generally I don’t, though I might if I were contemplating a drive across the Highlands of Scotland to Aviemore, say. But otherwise, no. Why? Because I am able to charge the car overnight at home, and most of my trips are much much shorter than the vehicle’s 300-mile range.

Max wrote to say:

Perhaps you unfairly malign Scotland’s fast-charging infrastructure, which in my experience is impressive. 14 charging stations on the 200 miles journey from here to Aviemore.

He also included a map, which made the point forcefully. Triggered my mantra that The great consolation about being a blogger is that your readers often know more than you do.

This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!

Everything and the kitchen sink

Seen on the way back from a restaurant one night recently.

Quote of the Day

“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

• Bertrand Russell

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Berlioz |Symphonie Fantastique | First Movement | Leonard Bernstein

Link

The music is lovely, but watching Bernstein conduct it is mesmerising.

The day I got my first pair of big HiFi speakers I went out and bought a vinyl recording of this. And turned the volume up. My neighbours never forgave me.

Long Read of the Day

Thirteen Years On

Robert Hutton’s Swiftian take in The Critic magazine on the latest outbreak of fantasising by Britain’s Zombie Conservatives.

Sample:

Imagine for a moment that in early 2009, crossing Westminster Bridge, you had been hit by Gordon Brown’s motorcade and put into a coma. Waking 15 years later in St Thomas’ Hospital, you wandered out and, seeing a crowd of people in tweed jackets and mustard trousers, followed them into a hall for what turned out to be the launch of the Popular Conservatives movement.

Who, you might have thought, are these dynamic politicians? There was a comedy turn from a chap called Rees-Mogg — looks like double-breasted suits have made a comeback — and a punchy speech from someone called Liz Truss. There is an MP with a big future ahead of her, you might have told yourself.

And they certainly had a compelling story to tell. Why, it seems that, while you were unconscious, some bunch of complete chancers had been running Britain into the ground! As speaker after speaker explained, you’d woken up in a country in which nothing worked, where taxes were too high, the government intervened in every aspect of people’s lives, and where no one could afford to pay their bills. Thank goodness, you would have thought to yourself, there was a general election around the corner, so that this rotten government could be chucked out and replaced by somebody halfway competent. You wouldn’t be surprised if that Truss got a big job.

For those of us who arrived at the Popular Conservatives launch with the doubtful advantage of having been awake for much of the past decade, things were a little more confusing…

Lovely and viciously funny. Do read it.

Forget range anxiety: we should worry more about China’s global dominance in the electric car market

Yesterday’s Observer column:

The longer-term effects of a switch to EVs are only now beginning to dawn on us. The internal combustion engine spawned a huge ecosystem of auxiliary industries – garages, service centres, refineries, tankers, filling stations and so on – supply chains created to cater to the needs of a 19th-century technology based on heavy machinery, oil, gasoline and exhaust fumes. EVs, by comparison, are relatively simple machines – basically big skateboards with wheels driven by electric motors and controlled by software. They need less maintenance and different skills to minister to them.

There’s also an unexpected geopolitical aspect to the transition from ICEs that is beginning to play out in Europe. Basically a trade war is brewing between the EU and China. How come? Well, China is flooding Europe with EVs. Over the past two years, the country has become the world’s biggest car exporter. EVs are a huge chunk of those exports, and most of China’s EV sales go to Europe.

The European Commission says that China’s share of EVs sold in Europe has grown to 8% and could hit 15% in 2025, on the basis of prices that are often 20% below EU-made models. To Europeans this looks suspiciously like dumping, and may require imposing punitive tariffs “to protect European Union producers against cheaper Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports that are benefiting from state subsidies”…

Do read the whole thing

Books, etc.

“What an astonishing thing a book is. It’s a flat object made from a tree with flexible parts on which are imprinted lots of funny dark squiggles. But one glance at it and you’re inside the mind of another person, maybe somebody dead for thousands of years. Across the millennia, an author is speaking clearly and silently inside your head, directly to you. Writing is perhaps the greatest of human inventions, binding together people who never knew each other, citizens of distant epochs. Books break the shackles of time. A book is proof that humans are capable of working magic.”

• Carl Sagan

My commonplace booklet

From Henry Farrell (Whom God Preserve) whose Substack is (IMO) consistently interesting and thoughtful.

This newsletter is currently hosted by Substack, an aspirationally for-profit entity with a business model. That business model is to get writers to (a) grow an audience, and (b) monetize that audience by charging a subscription fee, from which Substack can rake off its 10% cut. I’m not at all sure that it is going to work out for Substack, but it’s a reasonable set of trade offs for the author. The platform is clean and easy to use. There aren’t any obtrusive ads, though there are features designed to ‘encourage’ writers to go into pay-mode, and readers into pre-committing that they will pay up. I’m grateful (and mildly embarrassed) that enough people have said that they would pay for this newsletter, that I could turn it into a modest little sideline if I wanted to.

But – and again I’m enormously grateful for people’s generous pre-commitments – I don’t want to. I’m lucky enough to have a great academic job, which comes with an expectation that I’ll engage in public dialogue. This is one way that I can talk to people outside the academy. I can imagine radically changed life circumstances in which I might turn to a paid newsletter (I certainly don’t see anything immoral in paid side-gigs that don’t interfere with your ordinary responsibilities, and sometimes do them). But I’m much happier doing this for free.

Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

• Stinge Watching Is the Opposite of Binge Watching. New idea from Jason Kottke. Since I don’t do binge watching (can’t understand people who have the time to do it) I initially thought that the idea of ‘stinge’ watching might be for me. Sadly, it isn’t.

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Writing by candlelight

In memory of E.P. Thompson.

Quote of the Day

I loathe writing. On the other hand I’m a great believer in money.

• S. J. Perelman

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Handel | Violin Sonata, Op.1 No.13 | Henryk Szeryng with Huguette Dreyfus on harpsichord

Link

!2 minutes, but — hey! — it’s Friday!

Long Read of the Day

The Vicious Spiral of Political and Economic Inequality

Terrific essay by Valentino Larcinese of the LSE and Alberto Parmigiani of the Free University of Bolzano, who are both participants in the impressive Law and Political Economy project.

Their basic argument is that the increasing intrusion of private wealth into political campaigning in liberal democracies (to a pathological extent in the US, but in Britain also in recent times) leads to a vicious cycle.

Summed up in a neat diagram”

Books, etc.

Chris Dixon’s Read Write Own

Molly White’s scarifying takedown of the latest BS screed to emerge from the Andreessen-Horowitz (aka A16Z) fantasy factory. Here’s a couple of samples. Footnotes (at the end of this edition) are Molly’s.

Exhibit A

It’s profoundly weird to read RSS’s obituary as a person who checks her very-much-still-alive feed reader several times a day to get everything from cryptocurrency news to dinner ideas, and who rarely encounters a website that doesn’t provide a functional feed.¹ And does Dixon somehow not know that much of the thriving podcasting industry is built on RSS, or that many other apps and websites build features on top of RSS without their users ever even knowing it?²

Anyway, fear not, says Dixon, because he has found the solution to the internet’s Big Tech sickness: blockchains. “While plenty of people recognize their potential—including me—much of the establishment disregards them,” complains a general partner at one of the most powerful venture capital firms in the web space. Now, if we would all just be so kind as to ignore the last fifteen years since blockchains’ inception — during which innumerable companies have flailed around trying to find any possible use case beyond the manic speculation that has enriched a few at the expense of many — he’s got an idea to sell us.

And I mean “sell” quite literally: the book is peppered with glowing references to companies a16z has backed, but is completely devoid of any disclosures.

Exhibit B

After three chapters in which Dixon provides a (rather revisionist³) history of the web to date, explains the mechanics of blockchains, and goes over the types of things one might theoretically be able to do with a blockchain, we are left with “Part Four: Here and Now”, then the final “Part Five: What’s Next”. The name of Part Four suggests that he will perhaps lay out a list of blockchain projects that are currently successfully solving real problems.

This may be why Part Four is precisely four and a half pages long. And rather than name any successful projects, Dixon instead spends his few pages excoriating the “casino” projects that he says have given crypto a bad rap,⁴ prompting regulatory scrutiny that is making “ethical entrepreneurs … afraid to build products” in the United States.⁵

You get the idea. Molly White is not a woman to tangle with if you’re a tech fantasist.

My commonplace booklet

 A quote from A Project of One’s Own by Paul Graham.

The team that made the original Macintosh were a great example of this phenomenon. People like Burrell Smith and Andy Hertzfeld and Bill Atkinson and Susan Kare were not just following orders. They were not tennis balls hit by Steve Jobs, but rockets let loose by Steve Jobs. There was a lot of collaboration between them, but they all seem to have individually felt the excitement of working on a project of one’s own.

In Andy Hertzfeld’s book on the Macintosh, he describes how they’d come back into the office after dinner and work late into the night. People who’ve never experienced the thrill of working on a project they’re excited about can’t distinguish this kind of working long hours from the kind that happens in sweatshops and boiler rooms, but they’re at opposite ends of the spectrum. That’s why it’s a mistake to insist dogmatically on “work/life balance.” Indeed, the mere expression “work/life” embodies a mistake: it assumes work and life are distinct. For those to whom the word “work” automatically implies the dutiful plodding kind, they are. But for the skaters, the relationship between work and life would be better represented by a dash than a slash. I wouldn’t want to work on anything that I didn’t want to take over my life.

Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

• As my friend, the novelist Isle McElroy, so aptly put it, “so weird when people read a novel looking for answers. novels are questions. question after question after question.” Reading does not guarantee moral certitude, nor will any individual book be able to undo systemic problems. But being able to sit with nuance and contradiction and complexity can make readers become more discerning consumers of media, and coming up on the 2024 election that could only be a good thing.

Maris Kreizman, “Against Disruption: On the Bulletpointization of Books”, Literary Hub, 1 February, 2024.

This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!

The Barbican in Winter

For a special friend who happens to live there.

Quote of the Day

“We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can’t have both.”

• Louis Brandeis

Which is why I fear that the days of our ‘liberal’ democracy may be numbered.

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Paul Desmond | “Take Five” | arranged for solo guitar by Lucas Brar.

Link

Interesting comparison with the Dave Brubeck version.

Thanks to Brian for the suggestion.

Long Read of the Day

 The Turing Trap: The Promise & Peril of Human-Like Artificial Intelligence

A fabulous Daedalus essay by Erik Brynjolfssen on the looming decision that AI poses for democracy: automation or augmentation: doing away with workers, or making them more productive by augmenting them with technology. This is the best and most readable exposition of the problem/challenge that I’ve seen.

Here’s the overview:

In 1950, Alan Turing proposed an “imitation game” as the ultimate test of whether a machine was intelligent: could a machine imitate a human so well that its answers to questions are indistinguishable from those of a human.1 Ever since, creating intelligence that matches human intelligence has implicitly or explicitly been the goal of thousands of researchers, engineers and entrepreneurs. The benefits of human-like artificial intelligence (HLAI) include soaring productivity, increased leisure, and perhaps most profoundly, a better understanding of our own minds.

But not all types of AI are human-like—in fact, many of the most powerful systems are very different from humans —and an excessive focus on developing and deploying HLAI can lead us into a trap. As machines become better substitutes for human labor, workers lose economic and political bargaining power and become increasingly dependent on those who control the technology. In contrast, when AI is focused on augmenting humans rather than mimicking them, then humans retain the power to insist on a share of the value created. What’s more, augmentation creates new capabilities and new products and services, ultimately generating far more value than merely human-like AI. While both types of AI can be enormously beneficial, there are currently excess incentives for automation rather than augmentation among technologists, business executives, and policymakers…

Do read it.

Books, etc.

What a legendary historian tells us about the contempt for today’s working class

Nice tribute to the late E.P. Thompson by Kenan Malik in Sunday’s Observer.

It is not often that, as a teenager, you get captured by a 900-page tome (unless it has “Harry Potter” in the title). Even less when it is a dense book of history, telling in meticulous detail stories of 18th-century weavers and colliers, shoemakers and shipwrights.

Yet I can even now picture myself first stumbling across EP Thompson’s The Making of the English Working Class in a bookshop. I had no idea about its cultural significance or its place in historiographic debates. I would not have known what “historiography” meant, or even that such a thing existed. But I can still sense the thrill in opening the book and reading in the first paragraph: “The working class did not rise like the sun at an appointed time. It was present at its own making.” I did not know it was possible to write about history in that way.

I still have that old, battered, pencil-marked Pelican edition with George Walker’s engraving of a Yorkshire miner on the cover; a book into which I continue to dip, for the sheer pleasure of Thompson’s prose and because every reading provides a fresh insight.

Were Thompson still alive, he would have been 100 on Saturday…

It’s a lovely piece, which rang lots of bells for me. Like Malik, as a teenager I first encountered Thompson’s book in the Pelican edition. For years my dog-eared copy followed me through various house moves, until tragically, it fell by the wayside somewhere.

Another book of his — Writing by Candlelight — was also a consolation as well as a delight to anyone living in the UK in the 1970s. It was a collection of incendiary essays written during that period, a miserable era in British history. Those essays, he wrote in the prologue,

generally arose unbidden and without premeditation, because ‘events’ seemed to say that something should be said. This something was generally intended to controvert, and if possible to discomfort the purveyors of received wisdom, and to contest the official descriptions of reality presented in the media.

As far as The Making of the English Working Class is concerned, Malik observes that its most celebrated line is Thompson’s avowal

“to rescue the poor stockinger, the Luddite cropper, the ‘obsolete’ hand-loom weaver, the ‘utopian’ artisan” from the “enormous condescension of posterity”. What he meant was that from our vantage point, a movement such as the Luddites, textile workers who, in the early 19th century, opposed the introduction of new machinery, and destroyed them, might seem backward and irrational, their very name a byword for senseless opposition to technological innovation. Yet theirs was not, in Thompson’s eyes, “blind opposition to machinery,” but rather a fight against the “‘freedom’ of the capitalist to destroy the customs of the trade, whether by new machinery, by the factory-system, or by… beating-down wages”.

Oddly enough, as we ponder our current anxieties about the possible impact of ‘AI’ on work and on society, this acquires a contemporary resonance.

Thompson’s parents, Wikipedia reminds us, were Methodist missionaries and his father was an admirer of the great Indian poet Rabindranath Tagore. Thompson’s childhood home seems to have been like Waterloo station for visiting Indian radicals, so much so that he grew up thinking that “nobody could be thought of as a serious person unless he had been incarcerated by the British”.

My commonplace booklet

Finance worker pays out $25 million after video call with deepfake ‘chief financial officer’

From CNN:

A finance worker at a multinational firm was tricked into paying out $25 million to fraudsters using deepfake technology to pose as the company’s chief financial officer in a video conference call, according to Hong Kong police.

The elaborate scam saw the worker duped into attending a video call with what he thought were several other members of staff, but all of whom were in fact deepfake recreations, Hong Kong police said at a briefing on Friday.

“(In the) multi-person video conference, it turns out that everyone he saw was fake,” senior superintendent Baron Chan Shun-ching told the city’s public broadcaster RTHK.

Chan said the worker had grown suspicious after he received a message that was purportedly from the company’s UK-based chief financial officer. Initially, the worker suspected it was a phishing email, as it talked of the need for a secret transaction to be carried out.

However, the worker put aside his early doubts after the video call because other people in attendance had looked and sounded just like colleagues he recognized, Chan said.

Which makes it strange that some people still believe that the dangers of deepfakes are over-exaggerated.

Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

• Quentin’s photo of a Sanderling on Holkham beach. This is both beautiful and annoying, because I have been trying — and failing — for years to photograph these energetic little creatures, who move so quickly along edges of the incoming tide that they appear to be on wheels rather than on legs. So congrats to Quentin.

This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!