NYT discovers World Cup Delusion Syndrome

It takes the Grey Lady time to catch up, but she gets there eventually.

Soccer here is a three-ring circus, a zoo, a metaphor, a way of life. As a result, England’s indifferent record in the sport’s showcase event requires its supporters to perform an emotional high-wire act every four years, simultaneously holding two competing notions in their heads.

One: This will be the year their team finally realizes its massive potential and wins.

Two: Their team never wins. This year, England’s chronic angst is compounded by two facts. The first is that the tournament is being played in Germany, home of its bitterest rival and agent of some of its biggest defeats. In 1990, England lost a heartbreaking match to Germany in a penalty-kick shootout in the World Cup semifinals. In fact, after England’s greatest victory over Germany — its 4-2 extra-time victory in the 1966 final — 24 years passed before the English beat the Germans again in a major competition. The second problem is Rooney’s foot. Rooney, a prodigy who rose from the rough streets of Liverpool to become a star at Manchester United, is England’s most talented scorer and its greatest hope. But last month he broke a metatarsal bone in his right foot, and on Friday he was ruled out for the first round of matches. Every day there have been conflicting reports, anguished speculation, hope on the heels of despair…

Quote of the day

The attractively simple thesis of The Change Function is that most technology ventures fail because technologists manage them. Technologists think their business is the creation of cool technologies loaded with wonderful new features. They think this because they are engineers who thrill to the idea of change. By contrast, Coburn says, “technology is widely hated by its users,” because ordinary folk loathe change. Therefore, any new artifact, no matter how much its various features might appeal to technologists, will always be rejected by its intended customers unless “the pain in moving to a new technology is lower than the pain of staying in the status quo.”

Or in Pip’s geeky formulation:

The Change Function = f (perceived crisis vs. total perceived pain of adoption).

[Former UBS analyst Pip Coburn, quoted in Technology Review.]