Friday 17 January, 2025

The big tent

The Schlumberger Centre in West Cambridge at dusk yesterday. It’s an oil exploration research lab on my cycle-path to and from college. It was designed by Hopkins to “foster interactions between scientists within its laboratories, workshops and office areas”.

Rather than relegate the noisy drilling-rig test station to a less prominent location, this main 24m-wide workshop is placed at the heart of the building, overlooked on either side by acoustically-insulated laboratories facing inwards. These single storey wings are flanked by individual scientists’ rooms facing outwards over the Fens landscape.

The roof is made of Teflon-coated glass fibre, suspended on a network of cables by four suspension bridge-like structures. It was built in 1992 and has withstood the elements rather well.


Quote of the Day

”Novel-writing is a highly skilled and laborious trade. One does not just sit behind a screen jotting down other people’s conversation. One has for one’s raw material every single thing one has ever seen or heard or felt, and one has to go over that vast, smoldering rubbish-heap of experience, half stifled by fumes and dust, scraping and delving until one finds a few discarded valuables. Then one has to assemble these tarnished and dented fragments, polish them, set them in order, and try to make a coherent and significant arrangement of them.

  • Evelyn Waugh

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

John Field | Nocturne No. 9 in E Minor, H. 46 | Alice Sara Ott

Link


Long Read of the Day

Reasons for pessimism in Europe — Crooked Timber

The title of this essay by Chris Bertram on the Crooked Timber blog says it all, but does so in an elegant and restrained way.

Those of us who live in Europe have reason to be very pessimistic about the next four years. The state that Europeans have relied upon as their security guarantee is now in the hands of the nationalist extreme right and the information space is saturated by the output of tech oligarchs such as Elon Musk who are either aligned with or beholden to that nationalist right and who openly fantasize about replacing elected European governments. These pressures come on top of military aggression from Russia in Ukraine and elsewhere, austerity in public services, increased energy costs, stagnant living standards, a difficult green transition, demographic decline, and anxiety about immigration and cultural diversity. Most of these pressures are likely to be deliberately worsened by the incoming Trump regime in the hope of having its ideological allies come to power in European countries. In fact the very same figures who vaunted the importance of national sovereignty are salivating at the prospect of a great power interfering to their benefit in domestic affairs: so much for patriotism!

Resistance will be hampered on several fronts…

It makes me think of a motto which I attribute (perhaps wrongly) to Gramsci — that what we need is “pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will”.

But underneath the piece is a less bleak comment.

I consider myself to be a pretty pessimistic guy, who usually thinks things won’t work out well and are at least as likely to get worse than to get better, but I think this is probably a bit too pessimistic. For all this to happen, a bunch of people who are not that smart, not that organized, are hard to get along with, and have other serious problems would have to have a lot of things go right for them. That might happen! But, I think the above is close to an absolute worst-case scenario, and the more likely outcome, while bad, is less bad than this…

Who knows? And we won’t find out, though, for quite a while. So maybe what we liberals need just now is realism of the intellect and optimism of the will?


My commonplace booklet

Hugging Face has just announced a new Large Language Model (LLM), Deepseek-V3, which apparently has a performance close to other leading models but requires only a tenth of the computing power for its training. Impressive, eh?

Here’s how the designers introduce it:

We present DeepSeek-V3, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language model with 671B total parameters with 37B activated for each token. To achieve efficient inference and cost-effective training, DeepSeek-V3 adopts Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA) and DeepSeekMoE architectures, which were thoroughly validated in DeepSeek-V2. Furthermore, DeepSeek-V3 pioneers an auxiliary-loss-free strategy for load balancing and sets a multi-token prediction training objective for stronger performance. We pre-train DeepSeek-V3 on 14.8 trillion diverse and high-quality tokens, followed by Supervised Fine-Tuning and Reinforcement Learning stages to fully harness its capabilities. Comprehensive evaluations reveal that DeepSeek-V3 outperforms other open-source models and achieves performance comparable to leading closed-source models. Despite its excellent performance, DeepSeek-V3 requires only 2.788M H800 GPU hours for its full training. In addition, its training process is remarkably stable. Throughout the entire training process, we did not experience any irrecoverable loss spikes or perform any rollbacks.

Of course this will be incomprehensible to any non-technical reader — not just because of all the jargon and acronyms, but also because it assumes a conceptual grasp how LLMs are created. But it’s an impressive example of good technical writing: compressed, efficient and informative.


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

  • Terrific conversation between Ian Hislop and Andrew Marr about Elon Musk Link

This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


Wednesday 15 January, 2025

Bath time in the West End

Amazing what you see when you wander round London with a camera.


Quote of the Day

“One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless and yet be determined to make them otherwise.”

  • F Scott Fitzgerald, ‘The CrackUp’

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Altan | Béidh Aonach Amárach (There’s A Fair Tomorrow)

Link

Lovely rendition of an old Irish song.


Long Read of the Day

Machinery hurtful to commonality

Really insightful essay by Rob Miller on the relevance of an old (and comprehensively misunderstood) story that’s suddenly become dead relevant again.

The Luddites weren’t demanding the destruction of all machinery and the banning of automation. They wanted machines to be operated by workers who had undergone an apprenticeship and who were paid well, and they wanted them to be used to produce high-quality – rather than high-margin – goods. They demanded the return to a system, challenged by the industrial revolution, in which it was possible to make a good living as a skilled manufacturer. In their own words, they fought against “all machinery hurtful to commonality”.

It used to be possible to make a good living as a jobbing musician; in the era of pitiful streaming revenues, AI-generated slop and muzak on Spotify, it no longer is. It used to be possible to make a good living as an ordinary, non-A-list screenwriter or film crew; in the era of collapsing streaming budgets and the elimination of residuals, it no longer is. It used to be possible to make a good living writing for a niche audience on the web, funded by either advertising or membership fees; in the era of ad fraud and subscription fatigue, it no longer is.

We’re all just making algorithmic dogfood for the content factory…

It brings to mind Brian Merchant’s terrific book and Dave Karpf’s memorable review of it.


My commonplace booklet

After the Facebook boss made his pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago to kiss the Great Dictator’s ring and announced that corporate bosses needed to be more ‘masculine’ in future, an interesting thing happened back at the Meta ranch:

That same day at Meta’s offices in Silicon Valley, Texas and New York, facilities managers were instructed to remove tampons from men’s bathrooms, which the company had provided for nonbinary and transgender employees who use the men’s room and who may have required sanitary pads, two employees said.

Some employees were livid at what they saw as efforts by executives to hide changes to the “Hateful Conduct” policy before it was announced, two people said. While people across the policy division typically view and comment on significant revisions, most did not have the opportunity this time.

On Workplace, Meta’s Slack-like internal communications software, employees began arguing over the changes. In the @Pride employee resource group, where workers who support L.G.B.T.Q. issues convene, at least one person announced their resignation as others privately relayed to one another that they planned to look for jobs elsewhere, two people said.

Link


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

  • A free AQI (Air Quality Indicator) for Apple devices Link

Interesting

All proceeds from previous sales of this app have been donated to one of several climate change foundations:

Clean Air Task Force
Climate Change Emergency Fund
Union of Concerned Scientists

This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


Monday 13 January, 2025

Webbed!

Yeah, well it’s been cold round here.


Quote of the Day

”Mark Zuckerberg’s commitment to free speech is as deep as Exxon’s commitment to clean energy.”

  • Dave Karpf

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Norah Jones | Don’t Know Why

Link


Long Read of the Day

Wrecking Balls

Tina Brown is on Substack, and bloody good she is too. Here’s how her latest blast opens:

In Trump Season Two, deranged masculinity is all the rage. It’s as if the New Orleans truck ramming and the Las Vegas Cybertruck explosion were the overture to what comes next. The former decorated Green Beret who chose to blow himself up in one of Elon Musk’s 6,000-pound electric cyber-monsters outside a Trump hotel could not have provided a more fitting pre-credit sequence for the new era. We are all playthings now in Elon’s daily Circus Maximus as he hurls his thunderbolts not just at us, but at the Brits, the Norwegians, and the Germans. “Don’t feed the troll,” warned German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is now about to be out on his ass. Ditto Canada’s friendly feminist Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, dubbed by Musk “an insufferable tool,” who jumped yesterday before he was pushed…

Includes a pic of the Cybertruck inferno next to the entrance to Trump’s pad.


Note to No 10: one speed doesn’t fit all when it comes to online safety

Yesterday’s Observer column:

London Fixed Gear and Single-Speed (LFGSS) is an admirable online community of fixed-gear and single-speed cyclists in and around London. Sadly, this columnist does not qualify for membership: he doesn’t reside in (or near) the metropolis, and he requires a number of gears to tackle even the gentlest of inclines – and therefore admires hardier cyclists who disdain the assistance of Sturmey-Archer or Campagnolo hardware.

There is, however, bad news on the horizon. After Sunday 16 March, LFGSS will be no more. Dee Kitchen, the software wizard (and cyclist) who is the core developer of Microcosm, a platform for running non-commercial, non-profit, privacy-sensitive, accessible online forums such as LFGSS, has announced that on that date he will “delete the virtual servers hosting LFGSS and other communities, and effectively immediately end the approximately 300 small communities that I run, and the few large communities such as LFGSS”.…

Read on


Books, etc.

The Great Gatsby was published 100 years ago this Spring

Richard Ford wrote this about it:

“I believe it is one of the maturest, more sophisticated and seamless books I have read, and I don’t fault myself for not getting it back in 1964, since it has, I think, more to teach an older man than a young one.”


My commonplace booklet

John Banville, the distinguished Irish critic and novelist, is working on his memoirs.

The writer toiled as a subeditor in the 1970s. Recounting this period in the interview, he recalled returning home late one night to his then wife, the American artist Janet Dunham, who died in 2021.

“Janet had been asleep for hours and the house was in total darkness, so I didn’t turn any lights on. I just got undressed and crept into bed beside her, this lovely, warm body. And she turned over and things got amorous, as they do. Given the circumstances, it was quite quick and quiet, you know. And afterwards there was a bit of a pause, and then, with her superb sense of comic timing, my wife said: ‘John, is that you?’”

From a lovely Guardian interview


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

  • How Ernest Wright Makes Scissors.. Ever noticed how terrible mass-produced scissors are? Me too. Which is why I loved this video. The Kutrite model is what emerges from the production process. It might seem expensive, but it’ll last your lifetime, and maybe your grandchildrens’ too.

  This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!

Friday 10 January, 2025

Bread — and Circuses?

Arles, on a July evening in 2022


Quote of the Day

”Communications tools don’t get socially interesting until they get technologically boring.”

  • Clay Shirky (in Here Comes Everybody)

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

The Decemberists | January Hymn

Link


Long Read of the Day

 How to solve a problem like Elon Musk

Peter Geoghegan on why European democracies need to start taking action against foreign interference.

That elections should be protected from outside interference is a core principle in many modern democracies. In Britain, foreign donations are prohibited. It’s the same in the United States, France, Ireland and numerous other countries.

We are, however, quickly discovering the limits of the rules and regulations that are supposed to protect our democracies.

Especially when the foreign interference is coming from a multi-billionaire who has complete control over a social media platform where many voters get their information.

Few realised it at the time, but Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter/X in 2022 has given him an unrivalled power to influence politics. His increasingly erratic attacks on governments and public institutions are fast becoming the biggest driver of the news agenda.

Politicians are being forced to react…

Good piece by a great journalist. Time to think about using the Online Safety Act to regulate Musk’s abusive tweeting on Twitter/X


Books, etc.

Shapiro picked up an abused-looking iPhone from his desk. “You’re talking to someone who has only owned a smartphone for a year—I resisted,” he said. Then he saw that it was futile. “Technology in the last twenty years has changed all of us,” he went on. “How has it changed me? I probably read five novels a month until the two-thousands. If I read one a month now, it’s a lot. That’s not because I’ve lost interest in fiction. It’s because I’m reading a hundred Web sites. I’m listening to podcasts.” He waggled the iPhone disdainfully. “Go to a play now, and watch the flashing screens an hour in, as people who like to think of themselves as cultured cannot! Stop! Themselves!” Assigning “Middlemarch” in that climate was like trying to land a 747 on a small rural airstrip.

James Shapiro, an English professor at Columbia, talking to Nathan Heller in “The End of the English Major”


My commonplace booklet

A cautionary tale for Wall Street from China

From Stella Yifan Xie in Nikkei

China has issued a directive to the country’s brokerage firms as it aims to change perceptions of its flagging economy: monitor speeches by top economists and fire them if necessary. Chief economists at Chinese brokerages must “play a positive role in interpreting government policies and boost investor confidence,” the industry watchdog Securities Association of China (SAC) told its members last week, according to the state-run financial newspaper Securities Times. However, if the individuals have “repeatedly triggered reputational risk over inappropriate commentaries or behaviors” within a certain period of time or caused “major negative impacts,” the company shall “severely deal with the person until termination of employment,” said the notice, without elaborating on the definition of inappropriate comments. The order marks a fresh attempt by Beijing to rekindle confidence and hasten growth by avoiding negative takes on the world’s second-largest economy. But some analysts and economists are concerned that censorship would only deepen the public’s frustration over the economy’s sluggish performance and increase the risk of policy missteps. One Chinese economist at a bank received an internal warning in recent months, in part for making public comments on the economy, Nikkei Asia learned. … At the annual economic work conference last year, Beijing urged officials to promote the “bright theory” of the economy, as it battled against a property market meltdown and slumping stocks. The country’s top intelligence agency warned the public against those who “denigrate China’s economy through false narratives.” Negative commentaries and articles about the state of the economy have vanished from Chinese media.

This should be interesting to some of the free-booting Tech capitalists fawning upon Trump. The First Amendment might come back to bite them when they seek to redact Wall Street analysts’ reports that are critical of their companies!


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

 Jimmy Carter Says Best Part of Heaven is He Will Never See Trump

From Andy Borowitz

HEAVEN (The Borowitz Report) — In a wide-ranging interview on Thursday, former President Jimmy Carter said that the best part of Heaven “by far” is the knowledge that he will never see Donald J. Trump again.

“Don’t get me wrong, I’m very grateful for the gift of eternal life,” he said. “But an eternity without Trump is the greatest gift of all.”

Carter said that he was “far from alone” in appreciating his Trump-free existence, adding, “Nelson Mandela just said the same thing.”

Asked if he had seen Trump on cable news criticizing his sale of the Panama Canal, Carter responded, “We don’t have cable news up here. I’ve heard it’s on nonstop in the other place.”


Seen and/or heard

In a friend’s guest bedroom.


This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


Wednesday 8 January, 2025

Window art

What a window-blind! Spotted on a walk through town after dusk the other night. Made my day.


Quote of the Day

”It is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.”

  • Frederic Jameson

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

William Kroll | Banjo and Fiddle | Jennifer Pike with the BBC National Orchestra of Wales | BBC Proms, 2014

Link


Long Read of the Day

”Students who use AI as a crutch don’t learn anything” 

Transcript of an interesting El Pais interview with Ethan Mollick who is one of the most interesting and insightful writers on ‘AI’. He teaches at the Wharton business school at the University of Pennsylvania, and from the outset has viewed the technology as an augmentation of human capabilities. His book, Co-Intelligence is one of the books I recommend to teachers who ask me how they can get up to speed on the technology.

Here’s a sample:

Q. You say that the best experts of the future will be those who make the most use of AI. Are people who are waiting to use AI making a mistake?

A. I get it, it’s an unnerving technology. People are freaking out. They’re getting a sense of three sleepless nights and running away screaming. It feels like an essential threat to a lot of careers. I think if you’re a good journalist, the first time you think, “oh no.” But then you start to see how this could help you do things better than before. And at least for the next few generations, it’s not going to replace you, even though the technologists say it is. We need to separate from the Silicon Valley noise. On one hand they’re completely right: this is a miraculous incredible technology that emulates thinking, but the other is it doesn’t understand our jobs….


Books, etc.

Diane Coyle’s Books of the Year

My colleague Diane Coyle has a terrific blog, The Enlightened Economist, which is one of the wonders of the world. It consists entirely of Diane’s reviews of the books she’s been reading. That may sound dull, but, believe me, it’s the opposite. As well as being a distinguished economist she’s also a voracious and perceptive reader. Her reviews are succinct and insightful, and often lead me to buying (or borrowing) books I wouldn’t have known about otherwise.

Every year, Diane publishes a shortlist of candidates for the ‘Book of the Year’ prize. The shortlist for the 2024 candidates is here. The 2024 prize (a free lunch, on Diane) has gone to the author(s) of two winning tomes: The Unaccountability Machine by Dan Davies; and The Ordinal Society by Marion Fourcade and Kieran Healy.

Diane’s reviews of the books are here and here. And she herself has a new book coming in April.


My commonplace booklet

When he retired to Edinburgh in 1769, David Hume wrote to a friend:

I live still, and must for a twelvemonth, in my old House in James’s Court, which is very chearful and even elegant, but too small to display my great Talent for Cookery, the Science to which I intend to addict the remaining Years of my Life; I have just now lying on the Table before me a Receipt for making Soupe à la Reine, copy’d with my own hand. For Beef and Cabbage (a charming Dish), and old Mutton and old Claret, no body excels me. I make also Sheep head Broth in a manner that Mr Keith speaks of it for eight days…

From Kieran Setiya.

A big deal in an age when everyone of Hume’s status employed a cook and did no cooking.


This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


Monday 6 January, 2025

Jack Frost

Seen during a chilly walk on Saturday morning. As I typed the heading, I fell to wondering who was Jack Frost? Cue Wikipedia:

Jack Frost is a personification of frost, ice, snow, sleet, winter, and freezing cold. He is a variant of Old Man Winter who is held responsible for frosty weather, nipping the fingers and toes in such weather, coloring the foliage in autumn, and leaving fern-like patterns on cold windows in winter.

Starting in late 19th century literature, more developed characterizations of Jack Frost depict him as a sprite-like character, sometimes appearing as a sinister mischief-maker or as a hero.


Quote of the Day

“When nothing is sure, everything is possible”

  • Margaret Drabble

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Regina Spektor | “Better”

Link


Long Read of the Day

 Capital, AGI, and human ambition

I’ve been writing about technology and its impact on society for longer than I care to admit, and when someone once asked me what I was trying to do with my Observer column, I replied that I’m trying to break away from “the sociology of the last five minutes” (a phrase I got from the sociologist Michael Mann), which seemed to me the besetting sin of most tech journalism. Unsurprisingly, then, I’m constantly drawn to thinkers who try to take the long view of what’s happening to us — like the author of this remarkable essay who goes under the enigmatic pen-name ‘L Rudolf L’.

It’s about what could happen to us in the longer run if ‘AI’ gets a grip on society.

The key economic effect of AI is that it makes capital a more and more general substitute for labour. There’s less need to pay humans for their time to perform work, because you can replace that with capital (e.g. data centres running software replaces a human doing mental labour).

I will walk through consequences of this, and end up concluding that labour-replacing AI means:

  1. The ability to buy results in the real world will dramatically go up

  2. Human ability to wield power in the real world will dramatically go down (at least without money); including because:

  • there will be no more incentive for states, companies, or other institutions to care about humans

  • it will be harder for humans to achieve outlier outcomes relative to their starting resources

  1. Radical equalising measures are unlikely

Overall, this points to a neglected downside of transformative AI: that society might become permanently static, and that current power imbalances might be amplified and then turned immutable.

Long but interesting throughout. Worth your time IMO.


Memo to Trump: US telecoms are vulnerable to hackers. Hang up and try again

Yesterday’s Observer column:

You know the drill. You’re logging into your bank or another service (Gmail, to name just one) that you use regularly. You enter your username and password and then the service says that it will send you an SMS message with a code in it which you can use to confirm that it is indeed you who’s logged in. It’s called “two factor authentication” (2FA) and it passes for best practice in our networked world, given that passwords and login details can easily be cracked.

Sadly, our world is wicked as well as networked, and that SMS message can be redirected to someone else’s phone – that of the criminal who has logged in using your phished personal details – and who is now busily emptying your current account.

This kind of skulduggery has been possible for years. I’ve just come across an account of it happening to bank customers in Germany in 2017, but security experts were warning about it long before that…

Read on


Books, etc.

Q: What was the bestselling Penguin Classic title of 2024 in the UK? Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice? George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four? Or F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby?

A: None of the above. It was Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s 1848 novella White Nights, which — according to the Financial Times — has shifted more than 50,000 copies since last January.

How come? TikTok has a lot to do with it — via the BookTok community on the platform, where people share brief (and apparently persuasive) book recommendations.


My commonplace booklet

Ever since I lived in the Netherlands in the 1970s (when I saw how urban design and construction could be done well) I’ve been astonished by the abysmal standards of the British construction industry. But it turns out I only knew the half of it. Here’s an example from a Guardian piece about the industry which took even me by surprise:

British domestic architecture has also been shaped by idiosyncratic rules that contribute to its poor environmental credentials. For instance, in many parts of the UK, homes that face each other at the rear are required to be built 21 metres apart. This large distance means that instead of clustering buildings together around cool courtyards or shady streets, as is common in hotter climates, many homes in new neighbourhoods are directly exposed to the sun.

The 21-metre rule is, according to the Stirling prize-winning architect Annalie Riches, a bizarre hangover from 1902, originally intended to protect the modesty of Edwardian women. The urban designers Raymond Unwin and Barry Parker walked apart in a field until they could no longer see each other’s nipples through their shirts. The two men measured the distance between them to be 70ft (21 metres), and this became the distance that is still used today, 120 years later, to dictate how far apart many British homes should be built.


Linkblog

Things I spotted while drinking from the Internet firehose.

Why are fewer young adults having casual sex these days?

Who knows? But here’s the Abstract of an academic study of the question:

Fewer young adults are engaging in casual sexual intercourse now than in the past, but the reasons for this decline are unknown. The authors use data from the 2007 through 2017 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Transition into Adulthood Supplement to quantify some of the proximate sources of the decline in the likelihood that unpartnered young adults ages 18 to 23 have recently had sexual intercourse. Among young women, the decline in the frequency of drinking alcohol explains about one quarter of the drop in the propensity to have casual sex. Among young men, declines in drinking frequency, an increase in computer gaming, and the growing percentage who co-reside with their parents all contribute significantly to the decline in casual sex. The authors find no evidence that trends in young adults’ economic circumstances, internet use, or television watching explain the recent decline in casual sexual activity.


This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!


Memo to Trump: US telecoms are vulnerable to hackers. Hang up and try again

Today’s Observer column:

You know the drill. You’re logging into your bank or another service (Gmail, to name just one) that you use regularly. You enter your username and password and then the service says that it will send you an SMS message with a code in it which you can use to confirm that it is indeed you who’s logged in. It’s called “two factor authentication” (2FA) and it passes for best practice in our networked world, given that passwords and login details can easily be cracked.

Sadly, our world is wicked as well as networked, and that SMS message can be redirected to someone else’s phone – that of the criminal who has logged in using your phished personal details – and who is now busily emptying your current account.

This kind of skulduggery has been possible for years. I’ve just come across an account of it happening to bank customers in Germany in 2017, but security experts were warning about it long before that…

Read on

LATER Reuters quoting a WSJ report “that U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan told telecommunications and technology executives at a secret White House meeting in the fall of 2023 that Chinese hackers had gained the ability to shut down dozens of U.S. ports, power grids and other infrastructure targets at will.”

Friday 3 January, 2025

Snowscape

A Cambridge scene that makes me think of L.S.Lowry, even though Cambridge is the last place Lowry would have though of painting.


Quote of the Day

“When nothing is sure, everything is possible”

  • Margaret Drabble

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Regina Spektor | “Better”

Link


Long Read of the Day

 Capital, AGI, and human ambition

I’ve been writing about technology and its impact on society for longer than I care to admit, and when someone once asked me what I was trying to do with my Observer column, I replied that I’m trying to break away from “the sociology of the last five minutes” (a phrase I got from the sociologist Michael Mann), which seemed to me the besetting sin of most tech journalism. Unsurprisingly, then, I’m constantly drawn to thinkers who try to take the long view of what’s happening to us — like the author of this remarkable essay who goes under the enigmatic pen-name ‘L Rudolf L’.

It’s about what could happen to us in the longer run if ‘AI’ gets a grip on society.

The key economic effect of AI is that it makes capital a more and more general substitute for labour. There’s less need to pay humans for their time to perform work, because you can replace that with capital (e.g. data centres running software replaces a human doing mental labour).

I will walk through consequences of this, and end up concluding that labour-replacing AI means:

  1. The ability to buy results in the real world will dramatically go up

  2. Human ability to wield power in the real world will dramatically go down (at least without money); including because:

  • there will be no more incentive for states, companies, or other institutions to care about humans

  • it will be harder for humans to achieve outlier outcomes relative to their starting resources

  1. Radical equalising measures are unlikely

Overall, this points to a neglected downside of transformative AI: that society might become permanently static, and that current power imbalances might be amplified and then turned immutable.

Long but interesting throughout, and worth your time IMO.


My commonplace booklet

Ever since I lived and worked in the Netherlands in the 1970s (and seen how urban design and construction can be done well) I’ve been astonished by the abysmal standards of house-building of the British construction industry. But it turns out I only knew the half of it. Here’s an example from a Guardian piece about the industry which took even me by surprise:

British domestic architecture has also been shaped by idiosyncratic rules that contribute to its poor environmental credentials. For instance, in many parts of the UK, homes that face each other at the rear are required to be built 21 metres apart. This large distance means that instead of clustering buildings together around cool courtyards or shady streets, as is common in hotter climates, many homes in new neighbourhoods are directly exposed to the sun.

The 21-metre rule is, according to the Stirling prize-winning architect Annalie Riches, a bizarre hangover from 1902, originally intended to protect the modesty of Edwardian women. The urban designers Raymond Unwin and Barry Parker walked apart in a field until they could no longer see each other’s nipples through their shirts. The two men measured the distance between them to be 70ft (21 metres), and this became the distance that is still used today, 120 years later, to dictate how far apart many British homes should be built.


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Wednesday 1 January, 2025

New beginnings


Quote of the Day

”The more machines start to ’reason’ the more unpredictable they will become.”

  • Ilya Sutskever (in his NuIPS 2024 Keynote)

Just like humans, really.


Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Liam O’Flynn | Newfoundland | at the Ateneul Roman, Bucharest

Link

Wonderful performance by the greatest piper of my lifetime, of the final movement of Shaun Davey’s orchestral suite, The Brendan Voyage.

Seems appropriate as we embark on our own hazardous voyage into a Trumpian future.


Long Read of the Day

 Jimmy Carter: An unlucky President and a Lucky Man

A nice memoir in The Atlantic by the distinguished journalist, James Fallows, who worked for Carter.

Americans generally know Jimmy Carter as the gray-haired retiree who came into the news when building houses or fighting diseases or monitoring elections, and whose political past became shorthand for the threadbare America of the 1970s. Most of today’s Americans had not been born by the time Carter left office in 1981. Only about one-fifth are old enough to have voted when he won and then lost the presidency. It is hard for Americans to imagine Jimmy Carter as young—almost as hard as it is to imagine John F. Kennedy as old.

But there are consistent accounts of Carter’s personality throughout his long life: as a Depression-era child in rural Georgia, as a hotshot Naval Academy graduate working in Hyman Rickover’s then-futuristic-seeming nuclear-powered submarine force, as a small businessman who entered politics but eventually was forced out of it, as the inventor of the modern post-presidency.

What these accounts all stress is that, old or young, powerful or diminished, Jimmy Carter has always been the same person…


What Hunter Thompson saw in Carter

That he was much shrewder and tougher than people realised. Thompson spotted this way before anyone else. His epiphany came when covering a speech that Carter gave to the assembled worthies of the Georgia and Atlanta Bar in which he excoriated the legal profession in terms no normal politician would use. Thompson wrote it up in Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ’72, the book that some people think won Carter the presidency.

Here’s a fascinating video about that epiphany.

As it happens, I once got into trouble because of Jimmy Carter. I told the story on my audio ‘Lockdown Diary’ for March 30, 2020.

If you’re interested, you can listen to it here.


My commonplace booklet

Why social media have an inordinate impact on contemporary politics

Insightful observation by Yascha Mounk. Basically, politicians and mainstream media forget that the people who inhabit Twitter/X, Instagram, TikTok, Bluesky et al are a weird and unrepresentative sample of the electorate.

People spend an enormous amount of time and attention on social media today. But the real reason some platforms now influence everything including the contours of public discourse and the American presidential election is not that your cousin is addicted to Instagram; it is that key decision makers mistake the opinions of a small number of politically engaged—and ideologically extreme—people on social media for the views of the general public.

In decades past, newspaper editors knew that cranks and extremists were more likely to submit letters than average readers; they therefore took their opinions with a large grain of salt. Today, decision makers are obsessed with the modern-day descendants of those cranks. The recognition that Twitter and similar platforms do not represent the real world, however, might lessen the political influence of social media.


Feedback

My choice of Wagner’s Siegfried Idyll (composed as a birthday gift to Cosima) for Monday’s music slot prompted Tom Parkhill to send a link to an account of whom the Wagners had invited for Christmas that year — none other than Herr Friedrich Nietzsche who, it seems, had been in love with Cosima but Wagner had married her while the philosopher was on military service. Hmmm…

Cosima was … delighted with her Christmas gift from Nietzsche: the manuscript of The Birth of the Tragic Concept, an early draft of the philosopher’s own The Birth of Tragedy. In the evenings, Wagner read passages aloud. Wagner and Cosima praised it as being “of the greatest value and excellence.” Nietzsche purred…

He was the only guest and stayed eight days. I’m just thinking what a playwright like Tom Stoppard or Michael Frayn could do with this account of Christmas Day in a villa on Lake Lucerne.


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Monday 30 December, 2024

Lest we forget

The Cambridge American Cemetery on a dull December day. It contains 3,809 headstones, with the remains of 3,812 servicemen, including airmen who died over Europe and sailors from North Atlantic convoys. The long wall on the right records the names of 5,127 missing servicemen, most of whom died in the Battle of the Atlantic and in the strategic air bombardment of northwest Europe. One of the names is that of the band-leader Glenn Miller.

Wikipedia says:

In 1943, the University of Cambridge gave 30.5 acres of land on the north slope of Madingley Hill to the American military forces for use as a temporary cemetery during World War II. After the war, the American Battle Monuments Commission chose Cambridge as the site for America’s permanent World War II cemetery and war memorial in the United Kingdom. America’s war dead from three temporary cemeteries in the British Isles were consolidated in the Cambridge cemetery during an extensive cemetery construction project, and simultaneously the United States government repatriated about 58% of the existing war dead at the request of their surviving family members. Cambridge American Cemetery and Memorial was dedicated on 16 July 1956.

It’s a beautifully maintained but sobering place, and worth a visit if you’re ever in Cambridge.


Quote of the Day

“Neither the sun nor death can be looked at with a steady eye.”

  • La Rochefoucauld

Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news

Randy Newman | Sail Away

Link


Long Read of the Day

Maggie Smith remembered by David Hare

Lovely tribute to a great actress by a great playwright.

At the turn of the century, I wrote a play, The Breath of Life, in which Maggie appeared opposite Judi Dench. One night at the Theatre Royal Haymarket, Hillary Clinton came with Madeleine Albright. They were both seated on time, but Bill Clinton and Chelsea, delayed by traffic, joined them in the middle of first act. Next day, I was eager to find out what the Clintons had been like. Judi had received them in her dressing room and been swept away by their charm. When I went to ask Maggie what she thought of them, she said she had refused to meet them. “Do you think I’m going to shake hands with anyone who’s late for your play?”

Maggie’s exact phrasing has stayed with me, because it was the use of the word “your” that pierced my heart. It is one thing to reject the opportunity to meet the most famous people in the world, but to do so from unforced loyalty to a playwright tells you everything you need to know about Maggie’s character…

Do read it.


AI as the Miss Moneypenny of the 21st century

Yesterday’s Observer column:

If 2024 was the year of large language models (LLMs), then 2025 looks like the year of AI “agents”. These are quasi-intelligent systems that harness LLMs to go beyond their usual tricks of generating plausible text or responding to prompts. The idea is that an agent can be given a high-level – possibly even vague – goal and break it down into a series of actionable steps. Once it “understands” the goal, it can devise a plan to achieve it, much as a human would.

OpenAI’s chief financial officer, Sarah Friar, recently explained it thus to the Financial Times: “It could be a researcher, a helpful assistant for everyday people, working moms like me. In 2025, we will see the first very successful agents deployed that help people in their day to day.” Or it’s like having a digital assistant “that doesn’t just respond to your instructions but is able to learn, adapt, and perhaps most importantly, take meaningful actions to solve problems on your behalf”. In other words, Miss Moneypenny on steroids…

Read on


Books, etc.

The Cult of Jordan Peterson

From a nicely acerbic Economist review of Peterson’s latest 560-page doorstop, We Who Wrestle with God.

On November 18th a crowd gathered for the first night of his book tour in a village near New York City. It felt more like a concert. There was merch (Peterson posters and mugs) and a guitar warm-up act. When he came on stage, in a three-piece linen suit, the crowd — by no means all young or male -—whooped. The subject for this evening’s sermon, he told the congregation of fans, was sacrifice.

An entire Peterson industry has flourished for those willing to sacrifice their money: there is a Jordan Peterson newsletter (“Mondays of Meaning”), a “Peterson Academy” ($500 a year gets you lectures on manly things by people with beards) and a “self-authoring programme”. People who spend time writing about themselves, it promises, “become happier, less anxious and depressed”. Who knew? Certainly not Ernest Hemingway or Virginia Woolf—or, apparently, Jordan Peterson. As he reached the climax of the evening’s talk, his voice cracked. He is famous for weeping in speeches: YouTube offers a video compilation of “Jordan Peterson crying”.

Mr Peterson’s new book is as old-fashioned as his appearance. It reads as if it “could have been written in the 1950s”, says a publisher. Or, indeed, the 1850s…

Lovely.


My commonplace booklet

Patrick Collison, the Irish co-founder of Stripe, is that rare bird, a Tech billionaire and a keen reader. This year he’s read Jane Eyre, Middlemarch, To The Lighthouse, Bleak House, Portrait of a Lady, Anna Karenina, Life and Fate, Heart of Darkness, Madame Bovary, and The Magic Mountain. His reflections are here.


Linkblog

Something I noticed, while drinking from the Internet firehose.

  •  English Wikipedia’s most popular articles of 2024 Link

If you haven’t donated to support Wikipedia, maybe you should. I do, because I use it every day — as you can tell from the links on this newsletter. It’s even more important to support it now, given that Elon Musk is targeting it as one of the sources of information that he can’t control.


This Blog is also available as an email three days a week. If you think that might suit you better, why not subscribe? One email on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays delivered to your inbox at 6am UK time. It’s free, and you can always unsubscribe if you conclude your inbox is full enough already!