The equation that determines how Brexit will pan out

Growth = productivity + demographics

The UK’s productivity has been stagnant for a long time. And the Brexiteers propose to reduce immigration — which, when combined with an ageing population, means a declining workforce.

So the options are:

  • Find a way to dramatically boost productivity (difficult)
  • Rethink immigration policy (politically infeasible)
  • Ban contraception. (Jacob Rees-Mogg’s preferred policy.)